A perspective on the role of uncertainty in sustainability science and engineering.

The Trans-Atlantic Research and Development Interchange on Sustainability Workshop (TARDIS) is a meeting on scientific topics related to sustainability. The 2019 workshop theme was "On the Role of Uncertainty in Managing the Earth for Global Sustainability." This paper presents the perspectives on this topic derived from talks and discussions at the 2019 TARDIS workshop. There are four kinds of uncertainties encountered in sustainability ranging from clear enough futures to true surprises. The current state-of-the-art in assessing and mitigating these uncertainties is discussed.

A review of structure-based biodegradation estimation methods.

Biodegradation, being the principal abatement process in the environment, is the most important parameter influencing the toxicity, persistence, and ultimate fate in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Biodegradation of an organic chemical in natural systems may be classified as primary (alteration of molecular integrity), ultimate (complete mineralization; i.e. conversion to inorganic compounds and/or normal metabolic processes), or acceptable (toxicity ameliorated). Most of the biodegradation correlations presented in the literature focus on the characterization of primary or ultimate, aerobic degradation. The US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) is charged with determining the risks associated with the thousands of chemicals employed in commerce, an effort that is being facilitated through much research aimed at reliable structure-activity relationships (SAR) to predict biodegradation of chemicals in natural systems. To this end, models are needed to understand the mechanisms of biodegradation, to classify chemicals according to relative biodegradability, and to develop reliable biodegradation estimation methods for new chemicals. Frequently, published correlations associating molecular structure to biodegradation will attempt to quantify the degradability of a limited set of homologous chemicals. These correlations have been dubbed quantitative structure biodegradability relationships (QSBRs). More scarce and valuable to researchers are those models that predict the biodegradability of compounds possessing a wide variety of chemical structures. The latter may use any of several techniques and molecular descriptors to correlate biodegradability: QSBRs, pattern recognition, discriminant analysis, and principle component analysis (PCA), to name several. Generally, models either predict the propensity of a chemical to biodegrade using Boolean-type logic (i.e. whether a chemical will "readily biodegrade" or not), or else they quantify the degree of biodegradation by providing information such as rate constants. Such quantitative predictions of biodegradability come in a diversity of parameters, including half-lives, various biodegradation rates and rates constants, theoretical oxygen demand (ThOD), biological oxygen demand (BOD), and others. In this paper, after describing the advantages and disadvantages of the various biodegradation estimation methods found in the literature, the best models are compared to conclude which provide the greatest utility for determining the biodegradability of chemicals with widely varying structures. The group contribution technique presented by Boethling et al. [Environmen. Sci. Technol. 28 (1994) 459] appears to be the most advantageous for use in broad screening for tendency to biodegrade. The model is simple to use, calculating a probability of biodegrading ranging from 0 (none) to 1 (certain), and has proven to be accurate for a wide range of chemical structures, as established by the large, high-quality data set (BIODEG evaluated biodegradation database, Syracuse Research Corporation, Merrill Lane, Syracuse, NY 13210) used to develop this correlation. The authors, therefore, recommend the method of Boethling et al. [Environ. Sci. Technol. 28 (1994) 459] for the initial screening of chemicals to aid in determining whether additional information is necessary to establish relative biodegradability. For readers with applications requiring more quantitative results, such as biodegradation rate constants, enough model details are presented in this paper to allow the reader to pick a suitable correlation, although the reader is cautioned to consult the original, primary reference for the complete method description, equations, and limitations.

An improved spectrophotometric method to study the transport, attachment, and breakthrough of bacteria through porous media.

This study reports an improved spectrophotometric method for studying bacterial (Pseudomonas fluorescens UPER-1) transport and attachment in saturated porous media (silica sand). While studying the effect of ionic strength by the traditional packed-column spectrophotometric method, we encountered an artifact. The absorbance of a well-stirred bacterial suspension was found to decrease with time in the presence of high concentrations of sodium and potassium phosphate salts (> or = 10(-2) M) as the cells continued to age in a resting stage. Our results show that collision efficiency and a bed ripening index will be in error by as much as 20% if breakthrough is measured by the traditional spectrophotometric technique. We present an improved experimental technique that will minimize the artifact and should substantially advance the understanding of bacteria transport in porous media.

An inversion algorithm for determining area-source emissions from downwind concentration measurements.

Measuring emissions from nonuniform area sources, such as waste repository sites, has been a difficult problem. A simple but reliable method is not available. An objective method of inverting downwind concentration measurements, utilizing an assumed form of atmospheric dispersion to reconstruct total emission rate and distribution, is described in this study. The Gaussian dispersion model is compared to a more realistic model based on K-theory and similarity expressions. A sensitivity analysis is presented indicating the atmospheric conditions under which a successful application of the method could be anticipated. Field releases of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) from a simulated area source in flat terrain were conducted to check the method, ability to reconstruct source distribution, and total emission rate. The sensitivity analysis and the field study confirm that a few ground-level concentration measurements and a simple determination of the atmospheric dispersion characteristics are sufficient, under neutral to stable conditions, to obtain the total emission rate accurately. Reconstruction of the spatial pattern of the source is possible by utilizing concentration information from samplers located on two separate ground-level receptor lines, if a shift in the wind direction occurs and if it can be assumed that the total emission rate is time invariant. A method of cross-checking the accuracy of the reconstruction, using a simultaneous tracer release, is presented.

Hydrodynamic effects on microcapillary motility and chemotaxis assays of Methylosinus trichosporium OB3b.

A study of the random motility and chemotaxis of Methylosinus trichosporium OB3b was conducted by using Palleroni-chamber microcapillary assay procedures. Under the growth conditions employed, this methanotroph was observed qualitatively with a microscope to be either slightly motile or essentially nonmotile. However, the cells did not not respond in the microcapillary assays in the manner expected for nonmotile Brownian particles. As a consequence, several hydrodynamic effects on these Palleroni microcapillary assays were uncovered. In the random-motility microcapillary assay, nondiffusive cell accumulations occurred that were strongly dependent upon cell concentration. An apparent minimal random-motility coefficient (mu) for this bacterial cell of 1.0 x 10(-7) cm2/s was estimated from microcapillary assays. A simple alternative spectrophotometric assay, based upon gravitational settling, was developed and shown to be an improvement over the Palleroni microcapillary motility assay for M. trichosporium OB3b in that it yielded a more-accurate threefold-lower random-motility coefficient. In addition, it provided a calculation of the gravitational-settling velocity. In the chemotaxis microcapillary assay, the apparent chemotactic responses were strongest for the highest test-chemical concentrations in the microcapillaries, were correlated with microcapillary fluid density, and were strongly dependent upon the microcapillary volume. A simple method to establish the maximal concentration of a chemical that can be tested and to quantify any contributions of abiotic convection is described. Investigators should be aware of the potential problems due to density-driven convection when using these commonly employed microcapillary assays for studying cells which have low motilities.