Earthquake prediction: modeling the anomalous vp/vs source region.

Soviet observations of anomalously low values of the ratio of the compressional wave velocity to the shear wave velocity (V(p)/ V(s)) in a restricted volume around the locus of a future earthquake are duplicated by models based on the dilatancy hypothesis. In nature the cracks that cause the dilation may be oriented, leading to anisotropic seismic wave propagation in the anomalous region. The models show that vertical cracks are most effective in producing the observed effects, but that a slightly higher density of randomly oriented cracks will yield similar effects. The premonitory observations at Blue Mountain Lake, New York, are also duplicated by the models. These models demonstrate that V(p)/V(s) measured at the surface is not that of the anomalous zone, but is related to it by a transfer function, involving the shape and velocity gradient of the zone boundary.

Sherman landslide, alaska.

Triggered by the earthquake of 27 March 1964, 3 x 10(7) cubic meters of rock fell 600 meters, then slid at high speed 5 kilometers across the nearly level Sherman glacier near Cordova. The landslide has a number of significant new features in addition to those typical of other large landslides that may have slid on a layer of trapped and compressed air.