RESUMO
Reliability estimation is central to enhance safety, availability, and effectiveness of phased-mission systems (PMSs). With the development of information and sensing technologies, condition monitoring (CM) data are now available in many real-world PMSs, and then a more interesting question: how can we dynamically estimate the reliability of PMSs using the in-situ CM data, is of considerable significance to industrial practitioners. In this paper, using the CM data and degradation data of PMS, we present a novel condition-based approach to resolve this question under dynamic operating scenarios. This paper differs from most existing methods which only consider the static scenario without using real-time information, and estimate the reliability only for a population of PMSs but not for an individual PMS in service. To establish a linkage between the historical data and real-time data of the individual PMS, a stochastic filtering model is first utilized to model the phase duration. As such, the updated estimation of the mission time can be obtained by Bayesian law at each phase. To account for the dependency of the degradation progression of PMS on the mission process, the degradation process of PMS is modeled by a Brownian motion with a mission phase-dependent drift coefficient. The corresponding lifetime is derived and the lifetime distribution of PMS can be updated under Bayesian framework once new information is available. Unique to this paper is the union of the CM data and degradation data of PMS to real-time estimate the mission reliability through the estimated distribution of the mission time in conjunction with the estimated lifetime distribution, in which the estimated lifetime considers the dependency of the degradation rate of PMS on mission phase. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is verified by a numerical simulation and a case study.
