Biomarkers of mortality in adults and adolescents with advanced HIV in sub-Saharan Africa.

One-third of people with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa start antiretroviral therapy (ART) with advanced disease. We investigated associations between immune biomarkers and mortality in participants with advanced HIV randomised to cotrimoxazole or enhanced antimicrobial prophylaxis in the Reduction of Early Mortality in HIV-Infected Adults and Children Starting Antiretroviral Therapy (REALITY) trial (ISRCTN43622374). Biomarkers were assayed using ELISA and Luminex. Associations between baseline values and all-cause 24-week mortality were analysed using Cox models, and for cause-specific mortality used Fine & Gray models, including prophylaxis randomisation, viral load, CD4, WHO stage, age, BMI, and site as covariates; and weighted according to inverse probability of selection into the substudy. Higher baseline CRP, IFN-γ, IL-6 and IP-10 were associated with higher all-cause mortality; and higher IL-23, IL-2 and RANTES with lower all-cause mortality. Associations varied by cause of death: tuberculosis-associated mortality was most strongly associated with higher CRP and sST2, and cryptococcosis-associated mortality with higher IL-4 and lower IL-8. Changes in I-FABP (p = 0.002), faecal alpha-1 antitrypsin (p = 0.01) and faecal myeloperoxidase (p = 0.005) between baseline and 4 weeks post-ART were greater in those receiving enhanced versus cotrimoxazole prophylaxis. Our findings highlight how the immune milieu shapes outcomes following ART initiation, and how adjunctive antimicrobials can modulate the gut environment in advanced HIV.

Post-intervention perceptions on the antiretroviral therapy community group model in Trans Nzoia County, Kenya.

Introduction: the increasing number of people receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa has stressed already overburdened health systems. A care model utilizing community-based peer-groups (ART Co-ops) facilitated by community health workers (CHW) was implemented (2016-2018) to address these challenges. In 2018, a post-intervention study assessed perceptions of the intervention. Methods: forty participants were engaged in focus group discussions consisting of ART Co-op clients, study staff, and health care providers from Kitale HIV clinic. Data were analyzed thematically for content on the intervention, challenges, and recommendations for improvement. Results: all participants liked the intervention. However, some reported traveling long distances to attend ART Co-op meetings and experiencing stigma with ART Co-ops participation. The ART Co-op inclusion criteria were considered appropriate; however, additional outreach to deliberately include spouses living with HIV, the disabled, the poor, and HIV pregnant women was recommended. Participants liked CHW-directed quarterly group meetings which included ART distribution, adherence review, and illness identification. The inability of the CHW to provide full clinical care, inconvenient meeting venues, poor timekeeping, and non-attendance behaviors were noted as issues. Participants indicated that program continuation, regular CHW training, rotating meetings at group members´ homes, training ART Co-ops leaders to assume CHW tasks, use of pill diaries to check adherence, nutritional support, and economically empowering members through income generation projects would be beneficial. Conclusion: the intervention was viewed positively by both clinic staff and clients. They identified specific challenges and generated actionable key considerations to improve access and acceptability of the community-based model of care.

Switch to long-acting cabotegravir and rilpivirine in virologically suppressed adults with HIV in Africa (CARES): week 48 results from a randomised, multicentre, open-label, non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Long-acting injectable cabotegravir and rilpivirine is licensed for individualised treatment of HIV-1 infection in resource-rich settings. Additional evidence is required to support use in African treatment programmes where demographic factors, viral subtypes, previous treatment, and delivery and monitoring approaches differ. The aim of this study was to determine whether switching to long-acting therapy with injections every 8 weeks is non-inferior to daily oral therapy in Africa. METHODS: CARES is a randomised, open-label, non-inferiority trial being conducted at eight sites in Uganda, Kenya, and South Africa. Participants with HIV viral load below 50 copies per mL on oral antiretroviral therapy and no history of virological failure were randomly assigned (1:1; web-based, permuted blocks) to receive cabotegravir (600 mg) and rilpivirine (900 mg) by intramuscular injection every 8 weeks, or to continue oral therapy. Viral load was monitored every 24 weeks. The primary outcome was week 48 viral load below 50 copies per mL, assessed with the Food and Drug Administration snapshot algorithm (non-inferiority margin 10 percentage points) in the intention-to-treat exposed population. This trial is registered with the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry (202104874490818) and is ongoing up to 96 weeks. FINDINGS: Between Sept 1, 2021, and Aug 31, 2022, we enrolled 512 participants (295 [58%] female; 380 [74%] previous non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor exposure). Week 48 viral load was below 50 copies per mL in 246 (96%) of 255 participants in the long-acting therapy group and 250 (97%) of 257 in the oral therapy group (difference -0·8 percentage points; 95% CI -3·7 to 2·3), demonstrating non-inferiority (confirmed in per-protocol analysis). Two participants had virological failure in the long-acting therapy group, both with drug resistance; none had virological failure in the oral therapy group. Adverse events of grade 3 or greater severity occurred in 24 (9%) participants on long-acting therapy and ten (4%) on oral therapy; one participant discontinued long-acting therapy (for injection-site reaction). INTERPRETATION: Long-acting therapy had non-inferior efficacy compared with oral therapy, with a good safety profile, and can be considered for African treatment programmes. FUNDING: Janssen.

Assessing HIV-infected patient retention in a program of differentiated care in sub-Saharan Africa: a G-estimation approach.

Differentiated care delivery aims to simplify care of people living with HIV, reflect their preferences, reduce burdens on the healthcare system, maintain care quality and preserve resources. However, assessing program effectiveness using observational data is difficult due to confounding by indication and randomized trials may be infeasible. Also, benefits can reach patients directly, through enrollment in the program, and indirectly, by increasing quality of and accessibility to care. Low-risk express care (LREC), the program under evaluation, is a nurse-centered model which assigns patients stable on ART to a nurse every two months and a clinician every third visit, reducing annual clinician visits by two thirds. Study population is comprised of 16,832 subjects from 15 clinics in Kenya. We focus on patient retention in care based on whether the LREC program is available at a clinic and whether the patient is enrolled in LREC. We use G-estimation to assess the effect on retention of two "strategies": (i) program availability but no enrollment; (ii) enrollment at an available program; versus no program availability. Compared to no availability, LREC results in a non-significant increase in patient retention, among patients not enrolled in the program (indirect effect), while enrollment in LREC is associated with a significant extension of the time retained in care (direct effect). G-estimation provides an analytical framework useful to the assessment of similar programs using observational data.

Types and Outcomes of Arrhythmias in a Cardiac Care Unit in Western Kenya: A Prospective Study.

Background: Sustained arrhythmias are frequently encountered in cardiac care units (CCU), but their types and outcomes in Africa are unknown. Studies from high-income countries suggest arrhythmias are associated with worse outcomes. Objectives: To determine the types and proportion of cardiac arrhythmias among patients admitted to the CCU at Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital (MTRH), and to compare 30-day outcomes between patients with and without arrhythmias at the time of CCU admission. Methods: We conducted a prospective study of a cohort of all patients admitted to MTRH-CCU between March and December 2021. They were stratified on the presence or absence of arrhythmia at the time of CCU admission, irrespective of whether it was the primary indication for CCU care or not. Clinical characteristics were collected using a structured questionnaire. Participants were followed up for 30 days. The primary outcome of interest was 30-day all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were 30-day all-cause readmission and length of hospital stay. The 30-day outcomes were compared between the patients with and without arrhythmia, with a p value < 0.05 being considered statistically significant. Results: We enrolled 160 participants. The median age was 46 years (IQR 31, 68), and 95 (59.4%) were female. Seventy (43.8%) had a diagnosis of arrhythmia at admission, of whom 62 (88.6%) had supraventricular tachyarrhythmias, five (7.1%) had ventricular tachyarrhythmias, and three (4.3%) had bradyarrhythmia. Atrial fibrillation was the most common supraventricular tachyarrhythmia (82.3%). There was no statistically significant difference in the primary outcome of 30-day mortality between those who had arrhythmia at admission versus those without: 32.9% versus 30.0%, respectively (p = 0.64). Conclusion: Supraventricular tachyarrhythmias were common in critically hospitalized cardiac patients in Western Kenya, with atrial fibrillation being the most common. Thirty-day all-cause mortality did not differ significantly between the group admitted with a diagnosis of arrhythmia and those without.

Effect of the relationship between anaemia and systemic inflammation on the risk of incident tuberculosis and death in people with advanced HIV: a sub-analysis of the REMEMBER trial.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious morbidity that commonly occurs in people living with HIV (PWH) and increases the progression of HIV disease, as well as the risk of death. Simple markers of progression are much needed to identify those at highest risk for poor outcome. This study aimed to assess how baseline severity of anaemia and associated inflammatory profiles impact death and the incidence of TB in a cohort of PWH who received TB preventive therapy (TPT). Methods: This study is a secondary posthoc analysis of the AIDS Clinical Trials Group A5274 REMEMBER clinical trial (NCT0138008), an open-label randomised clinical trial of antiretroviral-naïve PWH with CD4 <50 cells/µL, performed from October 31, 2011 to June 9, 2014, from 18 outpatient research clinics in 10 low- and middle-income countries (Malawi, South Africa, Haiti, Kenya, Zambia, India, Brazil, Zimbabwe, Peru, and Uganda) who initiated antiretroviral therapy and either isoniazid TPT or 4-drug empiric TB therapy. Plasma concentrations of several soluble inflammatory biomarkers were measured prior to the commencement of antiretroviral and anti-TB therapies, and participants were followed up for at least 48 weeks. Incident TB or death during this period were primary outcomes. We performed multidimensional analyses, logistic regression analyses, survival curves, and Bayesian network analyses to delineate associations between anaemia, laboratory parameters, and clinical outcomes. Findings: Of all 269 participants, 76.2% (n = 205) were anaemic, and 31.2% (n = 84) had severe anaemia. PWH with moderate/severe anaemia exhibited a pronounced systemic pro-inflammatory profile compared to those with mild or without anaemia, hallmarked by a substantial increase in IL-6 plasma concentrations. Moderate/severe anaemia was also associated with incident TB incidence (aOR: 3.59, 95% CI: 1.32-9.76, p = 0.012) and death (aOR: 3.63, 95% CI: 1.07-12.33, p = 0.039). Interpretation: Our findings suggest that PWH with moderate/severe anaemia display a distinct pro-inflammatory profile. The presence of moderate/severe anaemia pre-ART was independently associated with the development of TB and death. PWH with anaemia should be monitored closely to minimise the occurrence of unfavourable outcomes. Funding: National Institutes of Health.

Ischemic stroke at first presentation of Takayasu arteritis in a young African male from Kenya, East Africa: Case report and brief literature review.

Key Clinical Message: This case highlights the need for thorough clinical examination to rule out Takayasu arteritis (TA) as a cause of stroke in a young asymptomatic East-African male. Available clinical management guidelines should guide management of TA patients. Abstract: We present a case of a young, previously asymptomatic East-African Black male presenting with large territory ischemic infarct at first diagnosis of TA. To our knowledge, this is the first published report of a male patient in East Africa with a stroke as the first presentation of TA.

Efficacy and safety of dolutegravir or darunavir in combination with lamivudine plus either zidovudine or tenofovir for second-line treatment of HIV infection (NADIA): week 96 results from a prospective, multicentre, open-label, factorial, randomised, non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: WHO guidelines recommend dolutegravir plus two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) for second-line HIV therapy, with NRTI switching from first-line tenofovir to zidovudine. We aimed to examine whether dolutegravir is non-inferior to darunavir, the best-in-class protease inhibitor drug, and whether maintaining tenofovir in second-line therapy is non-inferior to switching to zidovudine. METHODS: In this prospective, multicentre, open-label, factorial, randomised, non-inferiority trial (NADIA), participants with confirmed HIV first-line treatment failure (HIV-1 RNA ≥1000 copies per mL) were recruited at seven clinical sites in Kenya, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. Following a 2 × 2 factorial design and stratified by site and screening HIV-1 RNA concentration, participants were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1) to receive a 96-week regimen containing either dolutegravir (50 mg once daily) or ritonavir-boosted darunavir (800 mg of darunavir plus 100 mg of ritonavir once daily) in combination with either tenofovir (300 mg once daily) plus lamivudine (300 mg once daily) or zidovudine (300 mg twice daily) plus lamivudine (150 mg twice daily). The NRTI drugs allocated by randomisation were administered orally in fixed-dose combination pills; other drugs were administered orally as separate pills. The previously reported primary outcome was the proportion of participants with a plasma HIV-1 RNA concentration of less than 400 copies per mL at 48 weeks. Here, we report the main secondary outcome: the proportion of participants with a plasma HIV-1 RNA concentration of less than 400 copies per mL at 96 weeks (non-inferiority margin 12%). We analysed this outcome and safety outcomes in the intention-to-treat population, which excluded only those who were randomly assigned in error and withdrawn before receiving trial drugs. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03988452, and is complete. FINDINGS: Between July 30 and Dec 18, 2019, we screened 783 patients and enrolled 465. One participant was randomly assigned in error and immediately withdrawn. The remaining 464 participants were randomly assigned to receive either dolutegravir (n=235) or ritonavir-boosted darunavir (n=229) and to receive lamivudine plus either tenofovir (n=233) or zidovudine (n=231). At week 96, 211 (90%) of 235 participants in the dolutegravir group and 199 (87%) of 229 participants in the darunavir group had HIV-1 RNA less than 400 copies per mL (percentage point difference 2·9, 95% CI -3·0 to 8·7), indicating non-inferiority. Nine (4%) participants (all in the dolutegravir group) developed dolutegravir resistance; no participants developed darunavir resistance (p=0·0023). In the other randomised comparison, 214 (92%) of 233 patients in the tenofovir group and 196 (85%) of 231 patients in the zidovudine group had HIV-1 RNA less than 400 copies per mL (percentage point difference 7·0, 95% CI 1·2 to 12·8), showing non-inferiority and indicating the superiority of tenofovir (p=0·019). The proportions of participants with any grade 3-4 adverse event were similar between the dolutegravir (26 [11%]) and darunavir (28 [12%]) groups and between the tenofovir (22 [9%]) and zidovudine (32 [14%]) groups. There were no deaths related to study medication. INTERPRETATION: Dolutegravir-based and darunavir-based regimens maintain good viral suppression during 96 weeks; dolutegravir is non-inferior to darunavir but is at greater risk of resistance in second-line therapy. Tenofovir should be continued in second-line therapy, rather than being switched to zidovudine. FUNDING: Janssen.

Impact of an Enhanced Patient Care Intervention on Viral Suppression Among Patients Living With HIV in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Effective patient-centered interventions are needed to promote patient engagement in HIV care. We assessed the impact of a patient-centered intervention referred to as enhanced patient care (EPC) on viral suppression among unsuppressed patients living with HIV in Kenya. SETTING: Two rural HIV clinics within the Academic Model Providing Access to Health care. METHODS: This was a 6-month pilot randomized control trial. The EPC intervention incorporated continuity of clinician-patient relationships, enhanced treatment dialog, and improved patients' clinic appointment scheduling. Provider-patient communication training was offered to all clinicians in the intervention site. We targeted 360 virally unsuppressed patients: (1) 240 in the intervention site with 120 randomly assigned to provider-patient communication (PPC) training + EPC and 120 to PPC training + standard of care (SOC) and (2) 120 in the control site receiving SOC. Logistic regression analysis was applied using R (version 3.6.3). RESULTS: A total of 328 patients were enrolled: 110 (92%) PPC training + EPC, 110 (92%) PPC training + SOC, and 108 (90%) SOC. Participants' mean age at baseline was 48 years (SD: 12.05 years). Viral suppression 6 months postintervention was 84.4% among those in PPC training + EPC, 83.7% in PPC training + SOC, and 64.4% in SOC ( P ≤ 0.001). Compared with participants in PPC training + EPC, those in SOC had lower odds of being virally suppressed 6 months postintervention (odds ratio = 0.36, 95% confidence interval: 0.18 to 0.72). CONCLUSIONS: PPC training may have had the greatest impact on patient viral suppression. Hence, adequate training and effective PPC implementation strategies are needed.

Implementation of Fingerprint Technology for Unique Patient Matching and Identification at an HIV Care and Treatment Facility in Western Kenya: Cross-sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: Unique patient identification remains a challenge in many health care settings in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Without national-level unique identifiers for whole populations, countries rely on demographic-based approaches that have proven suboptimal. Affordable biometrics-based approaches, implemented with consideration of contextual ethical, legal, and social implications, have the potential to address this challenge and improve patient safety and reporting accuracy. However, limited studies exist to evaluate the actual performance of biometric approaches and perceptions of these systems in LMICs. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance and acceptability of fingerprint technology for unique patient matching and identification in the LMIC setting of Kenya. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study conducted at an HIV care and treatment facility in Western Kenya, an open source fingerprint application was integrated within an implementation of the Open Medical Record System, an open source electronic medical record system (EMRS) that is nationally endorsed and deployed for HIV care in Kenya and in more than 40 other countries; hence, it has potential to translate the findings across multiple countries. Participants aged >18 years were conveniently sampled and enrolled into the study. Participants' left thumbprints were captured and later used to retrieve and match records. The technology's performance was evaluated using standard measures: sensitivity, false acceptance rate, false rejection rate, and failure to enroll rate. The Wald test was used to compare the accuracy of the technology with the probabilistic patient-matching technique of the EMRS. Time to retrieval and matching of records were compared using the independent samples 2-tailed t test. A survey was administered to evaluate patient acceptance and satisfaction with use of the technology. RESULTS: In all, 300 participants were enrolled; their mean age was 36.3 (SD 12.2) years, and 58% (174/300) were women. The relevant values for the technology's performance were sensitivity 89.3%, false acceptance rate 0%, false rejection rate 11%, and failure to enroll rate 2.3%. The technology's mean record retrieval speed was 3.2 (SD 1.1) seconds versus 9.5 (SD 1.9) seconds with demographic-based record retrieval in the EMRS (P<.001). The survey results revealed that 96.3% (289/300) of the participants were comfortable with the technology and 90.3% (271/300) were willing to use it. Participants who had previously used fingerprint biometric systems for identification were estimated to have more than thrice increased odds of accepting the technology (odds ratio 3.57, 95% CI 1.0-11.92). CONCLUSIONS: Fingerprint technology performed very well in identifying adult patients in an LMIC setting. Patients reported a high level of satisfaction and acceptance. Serious considerations need to be given to the use of fingerprint technology for patient identification in LMICs, but this has to be done with strong consideration of ethical, legal, and social implications as well as security issues.

Dolutegravir or Darunavir in Combination with Zidovudine or Tenofovir to Treat HIV.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends dolutegravir with two nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) for second-line treatment of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection. Evidence is limited for the efficacy of this regimen when NRTIs are predicted to lack activity because of drug resistance, as well as for the recommended switch of an NRTI from tenofovir to zidovudine. METHODS: In a two-by-two factorial, open-label, noninferiority trial, we randomly assigned patients for whom first-line therapy was failing (HIV-1 viral load, ≥1000 copies per milliliter) to receive dolutegravir or ritonavir-boosted darunavir and to receive tenofovir or zidovudine; all patients received lamivudine. The primary outcome was a week 48 viral load of less than 400 copies per milliliter, assessed with the Food and Drug Administration snapshot algorithm (noninferiority margin for the between-group difference in the percentage of patients with the primary outcome, 12 percentage points). RESULTS: We enrolled 464 patients at seven sub-Saharan African sites. A week 48 viral load of less than 400 copies per milliliter was observed in 90.2% of the patients in the dolutegravir group (212 of 235) and in 91.7% of those in the darunavir group (210 of 229) (difference, -1.5 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -6.7 to 3.7; P = 0.58; indicating noninferiority of dolutegravir, without superiority) and in 92.3% of the patients in the tenofovir group (215 of 233) and in 89.6% of those in the zidovudine group (207 of 231) (difference, 2.7 percentage points; 95% CI, -2.6 to 7.9; P = 0.32; indicating noninferiority of tenofovir, without superiority). In the subgroup of patients with no NRTIs that were predicted to have activity, a viral load of less than 400 copies per milliliter was observed in more than 90% of the patients in the dolutegravir group and the darunavir group. The incidence of adverse events did not differ substantially between the groups in either factorial comparison. CONCLUSIONS: Dolutegravir in combination with NRTIs was effective in treating patients with HIV-1 infection, including those with extensive NRTI resistance in whom no NRTIs were predicted to have activity. Tenofovir was noninferior to zidovudine as second-line therapy. (Funded by Janssen; NADIA ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03988452.).

Development, Assessment, and Outcomes of a Community-Based Model of Antiretroviral Care in Western Kenya Through a Cluster-Randomized Control Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and assess an alternative care model using community-based groups for people living with HIV and facilitate by lay personnel. METHODS: Geographic locations in the Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare Kitale clinic catchment were randomized to standard of care versus a community-based care group (ART Co-op). Adults stable on antiretroviral therapy and virally suppressed were eligible. Research Assistant-led ART Co-ops met in the community every 3 months. Participants were seen in the HIV clinic only if referred. CD4 count and viral load were measured in clinic at enrollment and after 12 months. Retention, viral suppression, and clinic utilization were compared between groups using χ2, Fisher exact, and Wilcoxon rank sum tests. RESULTS: At 12 months, there were no significant differences in mean CD4 count or viral load suppression. There was a significant difference in patient retention in assigned study group between the intervention and control group (81.6% vs 98.6%; P < 0.001), with a number of intervention patients withdrawing because of stigma, relocation, pregnancy, and work conflicts. All participants, however, were retained in an HIV care program for the study duration. The median number of clinic visits was lower for the intervention group than that for the control group (0 vs 3; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals retained in a community-based HIV care model had clinical outcomes equivalent to those receiving clinic-based care. This innovative model of HIV care addresses the problems of insufficient health care personnel and patient retention barriers, including time, distance, and cost to attend clinic, and has the potential for wider implementation.

Computer-Based Counseling Program (CARE+ Kenya) to Promote Prevention and HIV Health for People Living With HIV/AIDS: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

In countries experiencing the dual burden of HIV disease and health care worker shortages, information and communication technology tools offer the potential to help support HIV treatment adherence and secondary HIV transmission risk reduction for people living with HIV/AIDS. We conducted a randomized controlled trial (September 1, 2011-July 12, 2012) with follow-up through April 2013. Participants were recruited from two clinics affiliated with the Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare program in western Kenya. A total of 236 participants were enrolled, randomly assigned to intervention (n = 118) or risk-assessment only control (n = 118) and followed up for 9 months. Both arms had > 0.5 log10 reduction in viral load over time (p = .0007), a clinically relevant finding. A computer-based counseling tool is feasible and acceptable in a high-volume East African HIV setting and provides evidence-based ART adherence and risk reduction support that may extend health workforce deficits.

Double Robust Efficient Estimators of Longitudinal Treatment Effects: Comparative Performance in Simulations and a Case Study.

A number of sophisticated estimators of longitudinal effects have been proposed for estimating the intervention-specific mean outcome. However, there is a relative paucity of research comparing these methods directly to one another. In this study, we compare various approaches to estimating a causal effect in a longitudinal treatment setting using both simulated data and data measured from a human immunodeficiency virus cohort. Six distinct estimators are considered: (i) an iterated conditional expectation representation, (ii) an inverse propensity weighted method, (iii) an augmented inverse propensity weighted method, (iv) a double robust iterated conditional expectation estimator, (v) a modified version of the double robust iterated conditional expectation estimator, and (vi) a targeted minimum loss-based estimator. The details of each estimator and its implementation are presented along with nuisance parameter estimation details, which include potentially pooling the observed data across all subjects regardless of treatment history and using data adaptive machine learning algorithms. Simulations are constructed over six time points, with each time point steadily increasing in positivity violations. Estimation is carried out for both the simulations and applied example using each of the six estimators under both stratified and pooled approaches of nuisance parameter estimation. Simulation results show that double robust estimators remained without meaningful bias as long as at least one of the two nuisance parameters were estimated with a correctly specified model. Under full misspecification, the bias of the double robust estimators remained better than that of the inverse propensity estimator under misspecification, but worse than the iterated conditional expectation estimator. Weighted estimators tended to show better performance than the covariate estimators. As positivity violations increased, the mean squared error and bias of all estimators considered became worse, with covariate-based double robust estimators especially susceptible. Applied analyses showed similar estimates at most time points, with the important exception of the inverse propensity estimator which deviated markedly as positivity violations increased. Given its efficiency, ability to respect the parameter space, and observed performance, we recommend the pooled and weighted targeted minimum loss-based estimator.

Raltegravir-intensified initial antiretroviral therapy in advanced HIV disease in Africa: A randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa, individuals infected with HIV who are severely immunocompromised have high mortality (about 10%) shortly after starting antiretroviral therapy (ART). This group also has the greatest risk of morbidity and mortality associated with immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS), a paradoxical response to successful ART. Integrase inhibitors lead to significantly more rapid declines in HIV viral load (VL) than all other ART classes. We hypothesised that intensifying standard triple-drug ART with the integrase inhibitor, raltegravir, would reduce HIV VL faster and hence reduce early mortality, although this strategy could also risk more IRIS events. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In a 2×2×2 factorial open-label parallel-group trial, treatment-naive adults, adolescents, and children >5 years old infected with HIV, with cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) <100 cells/mm3, from eight urban/peri-urban HIV clinics at regional hospitals in Kenya, Malawi, Uganda, and Zimbabwe were randomised 1:1 to initiate standard triple-drug ART, with or without 12-week raltegravir intensification, and followed for 48 weeks. The primary outcome was 24-week mortality, analysed by intention to treat. Of 2,356 individuals screened for eligibility, 1,805 were randomised between 18 June 2013 and 10 April 2015. Of the 1,805 participants, 961 (53.2%) were male, 72 (4.0%) were children/adolescents, median age was 36 years, CD4 count was 37 cells/mm3, and plasma viraemia was 249,770 copies/mL. Fifty-six participants (3.1%) were lost to follow-up at 48 weeks. By 24 weeks, 97/902 (10.9%) raltegravir-intensified ART versus 91/903 (10.2%) standard ART participants had died (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.10 [95% CI 0.82-1.46], p = 0.53), with no evidence of interaction with other randomisations (pheterogeneity > 0.7) and despite significantly greater VL suppression with raltegravir-intensified ART at 4 weeks (343/836 [41.0%] versus 113/841 [13.4%] with standard ART, p < 0.001) and 12 weeks (567/789 [71.9%] versus 415/803 [51.7%] with standard ART, p < 0.001). Through 48 weeks, there was no evidence of differences in mortality (aHR = 0.98 [95% CI 0.76-1.28], p = 0.91); in serious (aHR = 0.99 [0.81-1.21], p = 0.88), grade-4 (aHR = 0.88 [0.71-1.09], p = 0.29), or ART-modifying (aHR = 0.90 [0.63-1.27], p = 0.54) adverse events (the latter occurring in 59 [6.5%] participants with raltegravir-intensified ART versus 66 [7.3%] with standard ART); in events judged compatible with IRIS (occurring in 89 [9.9%] participants with raltegravir-intensified ART versus 86 [9.5%] with standard ART, p = 0.79) or in hospitalisations (aHR = 0.94 [95% CI 0.76-1.17], p = 0.59). At 12 weeks, one and two raltegravir-intensified participants had predicted intermediate-level and high-level raltegravir resistance, respectively. At 48 weeks, the nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) mutation K219E/Q (p = 0.004) and the non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) mutations K101E/P (p = 0.03) and P225H (p = 0.007) were less common in virus from participants with raltegravir-intensified ART, with weak evidence of less intermediate- or high-level resistance to tenofovir (p = 0.06), abacavir (p = 0.08), and rilpivirine (p = 0.07). Limitations of the study include limited clinical, radiological, and/or microbiological information for some participants, reflecting available services at the centres, and lack of baseline genotypes. CONCLUSIONS: Although 12 weeks of raltegravir intensification was well tolerated and reduced HIV viraemia significantly faster than standard triple-drug ART during the time of greatest risk for early death, this strategy did not reduce mortality or clinical events in this group and is not warranted. There was no excess of IRIS-compatible events, suggesting that integrase inhibitors can be used safely as part of standard triple-drug first-line therapy in severely immunocompromised individuals. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01825031. TRIAL REGISTRATION: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trials Number ISRCTN 43622374.

Late Presentation With HIV in Africa: Phenotypes, Risk, and Risk Stratification in the REALITY Trial.

Background: Severely immunocompromised human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals have high mortality shortly after starting antiretroviral therapy (ART). We investigated predictors of early mortality and "late presenter" phenotypes. Methods: The Reduction of EArly MortaLITY (REALITY) trial enrolled ART-naive adults and children ≥5 years of age with CD4 counts <100 cells/µL initiating ART in Uganda, Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Kenya. Baseline predictors of mortality through 48 weeks were identified using Cox regression with backwards elimination (exit P > .1). Results: Among 1711 included participants, 203 (12%) died. Mortality was independently higher with older age; lower CD4 count, albumin, hemoglobin, and grip strength; presence of World Health Organization stage 3/4 weight loss, fever, or vomiting; and problems with mobility or self-care at baseline (all P < .04). Receiving enhanced antimicrobial prophylaxis independently reduced mortality (P = .02). Of five late-presenter phenotypes, Group 1 (n = 355) had highest mortality (25%; median CD4 count, 28 cells/µL), with high symptom burden, weight loss, poor mobility, and low albumin and hemoglobin. Group 2 (n = 394; 11% mortality; 43 cells/µL) also had weight loss, with high white cell, platelet, and neutrophil counts suggesting underlying inflammation/infection. Group 3 (n = 218; 10% mortality) had low CD4 counts (27 cells/µL), but low symptom burden and maintained fat mass. The remaining groups had 4%-6% mortality. Conclusions: Clinical and laboratory features identified groups with highest mortality following ART initiation. A screening tool could identify patients with low CD4 counts for prioritizing same-day ART initiation, enhanced prophylaxis, and intensive follow-up. Clinical Trials Registration: ISRCTN43622374.

Lopinavir plus nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors, lopinavir plus raltegravir, or lopinavir monotherapy for second-line treatment of HIV (EARNEST): 144-week follow-up results from a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Millions of HIV-infected people worldwide receive antiretroviral therapy (ART) in programmes using WHO-recommended standardised regimens. Recent WHO guidelines recommend a boosted protease inhibitor plus raltegravir as an alternative second-line combination. We assessed whether this treatment option offers any advantage over the standard protease inhibitor plus two nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) second-line combination after 144 weeks of follow-up in typical programme settings. METHODS: We analysed the 144-week outcomes at the completion of the EARNEST trial, a randomised controlled trial done in HIV-infected adults or adolescents in 14 sites in five sub-Saharan African countries (Uganda, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Kenya, Zambia). Participants were those who were no longer responding to non-NRTI-based first-line ART, as assessed with WHO criteria, confirmed by viral-load testing. Participants were randomly assigned to receive a ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor (lopinavir 400 mg with ritonavir 100 mg, twice per day) plus two or three clinician-selected NRTIs (protease inhibitor plus NRTI group), protease inhibitor plus raltegravir (400 mg twice per day; protease inhibitor plus raltegravir group), or protease inhibitor monotherapy (plus raltegravir induction for first 12 weeks, re-intensified to combination therapy after week 96; protease inhibitor monotherapy group). Randomisation was by computer-generated randomisation sequence, with variable block size. The primary outcome was viral load of less than 400 copies per mL at week 144, for which we assessed non-inferiority with a one-sided α of 0·025, and superiority with a two-sided α of 0·025. The EARNEST trial is registered with ISRCTN, number 37737787. FINDINGS: Between April 12, 2010, and April 29, 2011, 1837 patients were screened for eligibility, of whom 1277 patients were randomly assigned to an intervention group. In the primary (complete-case) analysis at 144 weeks, 317 (86%) of 367 in the protease inhibitor plus NRTI group had viral loads of less than 400 copies per mL compared with 312 (81%) of 383 in the protease inhibitor plus raltegravir group (p=0·07; lower 95% confidence limit for difference 10·2% vs specified non-inferiority margin 10%). In the protease inhibitor monotherapy group, 292 (78%) of 375 had viral loads of less than 400 copies per mL; p=0·003 versus the protease inhibitor plus NRTI group at 144 weeks. There was no difference between groups in serious adverse events, grade 3 or 4 adverse events (total or ART-related), or events that resulted in treatment modification. INTERPRETATION: Protease inhibitor plus raltegravir offered no advantage over protease inhibitor plus NRTI in virological efficacy or safety. In the primary analysis, protease inhibitor plus raltegravir did not meet non-inferiority criteria. A regimen of protease inhibitor with NRTIs remains the best standardised second-line regimen for use in programmes in resource-limited settings. FUNDING: European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (EDCTP), UK Medical Research Council, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Irish Aid, Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, Instituto Superiore di Sanita, Merck, ViiV Healthcare, WHO.

Modeling the causal effect of treatment initiation time on survival: Application to HIV/TB co-infection.

The timing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation for HIV and tuberculosis (TB) co-infected patients needs to be considered carefully. CD4 cell count can be used to guide decision making about when to initiate ART. Evidence from recent randomized trials and observational studies generally supports early initiation but does not provide information about effects of initiation time on a continuous scale. In this article, we develop and apply a highly flexible structural proportional hazards model for characterizing the effect of treatment initiation time on a survival distribution. The model can be fitted using a weighted partial likelihood score function. Construction of both the score function and the weights must accommodate censoring of the treatment initiation time, the outcome, or both. The methods are applied to data on 4903 individuals with HIV/TB co-infection, derived from electronic health records in a large HIV care program in Kenya. We use a model formulation that flexibly captures the joint effects of ART initiation time and ART duration using natural cubic splines. The model is used to generate survival curves corresponding to specific treatment initiation times; and to identify optimal times for ART initiation for subgroups defined by CD4 count at time of TB diagnosis. Our findings potentially provide 'higher resolution' information about the relationship between ART timing and mortality, and about the differential effect of ART timing within CD4 subgroups.

Enhanced Prophylaxis plus Antiretroviral Therapy for Advanced HIV Infection in Africa.

BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa, among patients with advanced human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, the rate of death from infection (including tuberculosis and cryptococcus) shortly after the initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is approximately 10%. METHODS: In this factorial open-label trial conducted in Uganda, Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Kenya, we enrolled HIV-infected adults and children 5 years of age or older who had not received previous ART and were starting ART with a CD4+ count of fewer than 100 cells per cubic millimeter. They underwent simultaneous randomization to receive enhanced antimicrobial prophylaxis or standard prophylaxis, adjunctive raltegravir or no raltegravir, and supplementary food or no supplementary food. Here, we report on the effects of enhanced antimicrobial prophylaxis, which consisted of continuous trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole plus at least 12 weeks of isoniazid-pyridoxine (coformulated with trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole in a single fixed-dose combination tablet), 12 weeks of fluconazole, 5 days of azithromycin, and a single dose of albendazole, as compared with standard prophylaxis (trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole alone). The primary end point was 24-week mortality. RESULTS: A total of 1805 patients (1733 adults and 72 children or adolescents) underwent randomization to receive either enhanced prophylaxis (906 patients) or standard prophylaxis (899 patients) and were followed for 48 weeks (loss to follow-up, 3.1%). The median baseline CD4+ count was 37 cells per cubic millimeter, but 854 patients (47.3%) were asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. In the Kaplan-Meier analysis at 24 weeks, the rate of death with enhanced prophylaxis was lower than that with standard prophylaxis (80 patients [8.9% vs. 108 [12.2%]; hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55 to 0.98; P=0.03); 98 patients (11.0%) and 127 (14.4%), respectively, had died by 48 weeks (hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.58 to 0.99; P=0.04). Patients in the enhanced-prophylaxis group had significantly lower rates of tuberculosis (P=0.02), cryptococcal infection (P=0.01), oral or esophageal candidiasis (P=0.02), death of unknown cause (P=0.03), and new hospitalization (P=0.03). However, there was no significant between-group difference in the rate of severe bacterial infection (P=0.32). There were nonsignificantly lower rates of serious adverse events and grade 4 adverse events in the enhanced-prophylaxis group (P=0.08 and P=0.09, respectively). Rates of HIV viral suppression and adherence to ART were similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among HIV-infected patients with advanced immunosuppression, enhanced antimicrobial prophylaxis combined with ART resulted in reduced rates of death at both 24 weeks and 48 weeks without compromising viral suppression or increasing toxic effects. (Funded by the Medical Research Council and others; REALITY Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN43622374 .).

Morbidity and nutrition status of rural drug-naïve Kenyan women living with HIV.

This paper describes morbidity in a group of HIV-positive drug-naïve rural women in western Kenya. A total of 226 drug-naïve HIV-positive women were evaluated for baseline morbidity, immune function, and anthropometry before a food-based nutrition intervention. Kenyan nurses visited women in their homes and conducted semi-structured interviews regarding symptoms and physical signs experienced at the time of the visit and during the previous week and physical inspection. Blood and urine samples were examined for determination of immune function (CD4, CD8, and total lymphocyte counts), anaemia, malaria, and pregnancy status. Intradermal skin testing with tuberculin (PPD), candida, and tetanus toxoid antigens was also performed to evaluate cell-mediated immunity. Anthropometry was measured, and body mass index (BMI) was calculated. Seventy-six per cent of the women reported being sick on the day of the interview or within the previous week. Illnesses considered serious were reported by 13.7% of women. The most frequent morbidity episodes reported were upper respiratory tract infections (13.3%), suspected malaria (5.85%), skeletal pain (4.87%), and stomach pain (4.42%). The most common morbidity signs on physical inspection were respiratory symptoms, most commonly rhinorrhea and coughing. Confirmed malaria and severe diarrhea were significantly associated with a higher BMI.