Delirium severity and outcomes of critically ill COVID-19 patients / Gravidade do delirium e desfechos de pacientes críticos com COVID-19

ABSTRACT Objective: To investigate the impact of delirium severity in critically ill COVID-19 patients and its association with outcomes. Methods: This prospective cohort study was performed in two tertiary intensive care units in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. COVID-19 patients were evaluated daily during the first 7 days of intensive care unit stay using the Richmond Agitation Sedation Scale, Confusion Assessment Method for Intensive Care Unit (CAM-ICU) and Confusion Method Assessment for Intensive Care Unit-7 (CAM-ICU-7). Delirium severity was correlated with outcomes and one-year mortality. Results: Among the 277 COVID-19 patients included, delirium occurred in 101 (36.5%) during the first 7 days of intensive care unit stay, and it was associated with a higher length of intensive care unit stay in days (IQR 13 [7 - 25] versus 6 [4 - 12]; p < 0.001), higher hospital mortality (25.74% versus 5.11%; p < 0.001) and additional higher one-year mortality (5.3% versus 0.6%, p < 0.001). Delirium was classified by CAM-ICU-7 in terms of severity, and higher scores were associated with higher in-hospital mortality (17.86% versus 34.38% versus 38.46%, 95%CI, p value < 0.001). Severe delirium was associated with a higher risk of progression to coma (OR 7.1; 95%CI 1.9 - 31.0; p = 0.005) and to mechanical ventilation (OR 11.09; 95%CI 2.8 - 58.5; p = 0.002) in the multivariate analysis, adjusted by severity and frailty. Conclusion: In patients admitted with COVID-19 in the intensive care unit, delirium was an independent risk factor for the worst prognosis, including mortality. The delirium severity assessed by the CAM-ICU-7 during the first week in the intensive care unit was associated with poor outcomes, including progression to coma and to mechanical ventilation.

RESUMO Objetivo: Investigar como a gravidade do delirium afeta pacientes graves com COVID-19 e sua associação com os desfechos. Métodos: Estudo de coorte prospectivo realizado em duas unidades de terapia intensiva terciárias no Rio de Janeiro (RJ). Os pacientes com COVID-19 foram avaliados diariamente durante os primeiros 7 dias de internação na unidade de terapia intensiva usando a escala de agitação e sedação de Richmond, a Confusion Assessment Method for Intensive Care Unit (CAM-ICU) e a Confusion Assessment Method for Intensive Care Unit-7 (CAM-ICU-7). A gravidade do delirium foi correlacionada com os desfechos e a mortalidade em 1 ano. Resultados: Entre os 277 pacientes com COVID-19 incluídos, o delirium ocorreu em 101 (36,5%) durante os primeiros 7 dias de internação na unidade de terapia intensiva e foi associado a maior tempo de internação na unidade de terapia intensiva em dias (IQ: 13 [7 - 25] versus 6 [4 - 12]; p < 0,001), maior mortalidade hospitalar (25,74% versus 5,11%; p < 0,001) e maior mortalidade em 1 ano (5,3% versus 0,6%, p < 0,001). O delirium foi classificado pela CAM-ICU-7 em termos de gravidade, e escores maiores foram associados à maior mortalidade hospitalar (17,86% versus 34,38% versus 38,46%, IC95%, valor de p < 0,001). O delirium grave foi associado a um risco maior de progressão ao coma (RC de 7,1; IC95% 1,9 - 31,0; p = 0,005) e à ventilação mecânica (RC de 11,09; IC95% 2,8 - 58,5; p = 0,002) na análise multivariada, ajustada por gravidade e fragilidade Conclusão: Em pacientes internados com COVID-19 na unidade de terapia intensiva, o delirium foi fator de risco independente para o pior prognóstico, incluindo mortalidade. A gravidade do delirium avaliada pela CAM-ICU-7 durante a primeira semana na unidade de terapia intensiva foi associada a desfechos desfavoráveis, incluindo a progressão ao coma e à ventilação mecânica.

Gait speed, muscle strength, and functional status predict 30-day unplanned hospital readmission of critical care survivors.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Despite intense efforts, predicting hospital readmission risks remains an imprecise task. Growing evidence suggests that unmeasured patient-related factors, such as functional impairment, seem to be strongly associated with acute readmission and have yet to be extensively explored. We hypothesized that gait speed, hand grip strength, and the Functional independence measure (FIM) might be associated with acute rehospitalization rates after an ICU stay. METHODS: In our study, we assessed gait speed using a 10-m walk test. Muscle strength was determined by a hydraulic handgrip dynamometer and functional status through the FIM. Our primary outcome was the cumulative incidence of the first unplanned early rehospitalization (occurring within 30 days of hospital discharge) for the entire cohort, and a Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to determine the accuracy of gait speed, handgrip strength, and FIM domains in predicting hospital readmission. RESULTS: ROC analysis indicated that the gait speed (AUC 0.96 95% CI 0.93 to 0.99), FIM score (AUC 0.96 95% CI 0.94 to 0.99) and handgrip strength (0.85 95% CI 0.76 to 0.94) were considered accurate predictors of unplanned readmission in the population studied. Additionally, we found that each 0.1 m/s lower gait speed was associated with a 10% higher odd of unplanned readmissions. CONCLUSION: Hence, our results suggest gait speed, handgrip strength and functional status demonstrated high potential to contribute to the determination of 30-day unplanned hospital readmission prediction of critical care survivors.

Delirium severity and outcomes of critically ill COVID-19 patients.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of delirium severity in critically ill COVID-19 patients and its association with outcomes. METHODS: This prospective cohort study was performed in two tertiary intensive care units in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. COVID-19 patients were evaluated daily during the first 7 days of intensive care unit stay using the Richmond Agitation Sedation Scale, Confusion Assessment Method for Intensive Care Unit (CAM-ICU) and Confusion Method Assessment for Intensive Care Unit-7 (CAM-ICU-7). Delirium severity was correlated with outcomes and one-year mortality. RESULTS: Among the 277 COVID-19 patients included, delirium occurred in 101 (36.5%) during the first 7 days of intensive care unit stay, and it was associated with a higher length of intensive care unit stay in days (IQR 13 [7 - 25] versus 6 [4 - 12]; p < 0.001), higher hospital mortality (25.74% versus 5.11%; p < 0.001) and additional higher one-year mortality (5.3% versus 0.6%, p < 0.001). Delirium was classified by CAM-ICU-7 in terms of severity, and higher scores were associated with higher in-hospital mortality (17.86% versus 34.38% versus 38.46%, 95%CI, p value < 0.001). Severe delirium was associated with a higher risk of progression to coma (OR 7.1; 95%CI 1.9 - 31.0; p = 0.005) and to mechanical ventilation (OR 11.09; 95%CI 2.8 - 58.5; p = 0.002) in the multivariate analysis, adjusted by severity and frailty. CONCLUSION: In patients admitted with COVID-19 in the intensive care unit, delirium was an independent risk factor for the worst prognosis, including mortality. The delirium severity assessed by the CAM-ICU-7 during the first week in the intensive care unit was associated with poor outcomes, including progression to coma and to mechanical ventilation.

Thesis and dissertations examining tuberculosis in Brazil between 2013 and 2019: an overview.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a serious public health problem, with approximately 10 million new cases reported annually. Knowledge about the quantitative evolution of theses and dissertations (T&Ds) examining human TB in Brazil can contribute to generating strategic planning for training professionals in this field and disease control. Therefore, this study highlights the role of T&Ds on TB in national scientific disclosures. METHODS: An integrative review related to TB was performed, including T&Ds produced in Brazil and completed between 2013 and 2019. RESULTS: A total of 559,457 T&Ds were produced, of which 1,342 were associated with TB, accounting for 0.24% of the total number of T&Ds in Brazil. This was evidenced by a predominance of themes such as attention/health care, epidemiology, and TB treatment, and 80.2% of the T&Ds on TB were related to the large areas of health and biological sciences. Only 19.7% of T&Ds were associated with groups of patients considered at risk for TB, and 50.9% were produced in southeastern Brazil. The 1,342 T&Ds on TB were developed in 416 postgraduate programs linked to 121 higher education institutions (HEIs). We highlight that 72.7% of T&Ds on TB were produced in federal HEIs, 27.4% in state HEIs, and 8.5% in private HEIs. CONCLUSIONS: Strategic themes, such as TB control, require public policies that aim to increase the number of doctors and masters with expertise in TB, with geographic uniformity, and in line with the priorities for disease control.

EBUS-TBNA versus mediastinoscopy for mediastinal staging of lung cancer: a cost-minimization analysis / EBUS-TBNA versus mediastinoscopia no estadiamento mediastinal do câncer de pulmão: análise de custo-minimização

ABSTRACT Objective: To assess cost differences between EBUS-TBNA and mediastinoscopy for mediastinal staging of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods: This was an economic evaluation study with a cost-minimization analysis. We used a decision analysis software program to construct a decision tree model to compare the downstream costs of mediastinoscopy, EBUS-TBNA without surgical confirmation of negative results, and EBUS-TBNA with surgical confirmation of negative results for the mediastinal staging of NSCLC. The study was conducted from the perspective of the Brazilian public health care system. Only direct medical costs were considered. Results are shown in Brazilian currency (Real; R$) and in International Dollars (I$). Results: For the base-case analysis, initial evaluation with EBUS-TBNA without surgical confirmation of negative results was found to be the least costly strategy (R$1,254/I$2,961) in comparison with mediastinoscopy (R$3,255/I$7,688) and EBUS-TBNA with surgical confirmation of negative results (R$3,688/I$8,711). The sensitivity analyses also showed that EBUS-TBNA without surgical confirmation of negative results was the least costly strategy. Mediastinoscopy would become the least costly strategy if the costs for hospital supplies for EBUS-TBNA increased by more than 300%. EBUS-TBNA with surgical confirmation of negative results, in comparison with mediastinoscopy, will be less costly if the prevalence of mediastinal lymph node metastasis is ≥ 38%. Conclusions: This study has demonstrated that EBUS-TBNA is the least costly strategy for invasive mediastinal staging of NSCLC in the Brazilian public health care system.

RESUMO Objetivo: Avaliar as diferenças de custo entre EBUS-TBNA e mediastinoscopia no estadiamento mediastinal do câncer de pulmão não pequenas células (CPNPC). Métodos: Estudo de avaliação econômica com análise de custo-minimização. Utilizamos um software de análise de decisão para a construção de um modelo de árvore de decisão para comparar os custos à jusante da mediastinoscopia, de EBUS-TBNA sem confirmação cirúrgica de resultados negativos e de EBUS-TBNA com confirmação cirúrgica de resultados negativos no estadiamento mediastinal do CPNPC. O estudo foi realizado sob a perspectiva do sistema público de saúde brasileiro. Foram considerados apenas os custos médicos diretos. Os resultados são apresentados em moeda brasileira (reais; R$) e em dólares internacionais (I$). Resultados: Na análise de caso base, a avaliação inicial com EBUS-TBNA sem confirmação cirúrgica de resultados negativos foi a estratégia menos dispendiosa (R$ 1.254/I$ 2.961) em comparação com a mediastinoscopia (R$ 3.255/I$ 7.688) e EBUS-TBNA com confirmação cirúrgica de resultados negativos (R$ 3.688/I$ 8.711). As análises de sensibilidade também mostraram que EBUS-TBNA sem confirmação cirúrgica de resultados negativos foi a estratégia menos dispendiosa. A mediastinoscopia se tornaria a estratégia menos dispendiosa se os custos com insumos hospitalares para a realização de EBUS-TBNA aumentassem mais de 300%. EBUS-TBNA com confirmação cirúrgica de resultados negativos, em comparação com a mediastinoscopia, será menos dispendiosa se a prevalência de metástase linfonodal mediastinal for ≥ 38%. Conclusões: Este estudo demonstrou que EBUS-TBNA é a estratégia menos dispendiosa para o estadiamento mediastinal invasivo do CPNPC no sistema público de saúde brasileiro.

Thesis and dissertations examining tuberculosis in Brazil between 2013 and 2019: an overview

ABSTRACT Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a serious public health problem, with approximately 10 million new cases reported annually. Knowledge about the quantitative evolution of theses and dissertations (T&Ds) examining human TB in Brazil can contribute to generating strategic planning for training professionals in this field and disease control. Therefore, this study highlights the role of T&Ds on TB in national scientific disclosures. Methods: An integrative review related to TB was performed, including T&Ds produced in Brazil and completed between 2013 and 2019. Results: A total of 559,457 T&Ds were produced, of which 1,342 were associated with TB, accounting for 0.24% of the total number of T&Ds in Brazil. This was evidenced by a predominance of themes such as attention/health care, epidemiology, and TB treatment, and 80.2% of the T&Ds on TB were related to the large areas of health and biological sciences. Only 19.7% of T&Ds were associated with groups of patients considered at risk for TB, and 50.9% were produced in southeastern Brazil. The 1,342 T&Ds on TB were developed in 416 postgraduate programs linked to 121 higher education institutions (HEIs). We highlight that 72.7% of T&Ds on TB were produced in federal HEIs, 27.4% in state HEIs, and 8.5% in private HEIs. Conclusions: Strategic themes, such as TB control, require public policies that aim to increase the number of doctors and masters with expertise in TB, with geographic uniformity, and in line with the priorities for disease control.

Relationship of anti-tuberculosis drug-induced liver injury and genetic polymorphisms in CYP2E1 and GST

ABSTRACT Setting: Treatment of tuberculosis (TB) can result in Drug-Induced Liver Injury (DILI) since hepatotoxic metabolites are formed during the biotransformation of isoniazid (INH).DILI can be related to the genetic profile of the patient. Single nucleotide polymorphisms in the CYP2E1 gene and GSTM1 and GSTT1 deletion polymorphisms have been associated with adverse events caused by INH. Objective: To characterize the genetic polymorphisms of CYP2E1, GSTT1 and GSTM1 in TB carriers. Design: This is an observational prospective cohort study of 45 patients undergoing treatment of TB. PCR-RFLP and multiplex-PCR were used. Results: The distribution of genotypic frequency in the promoter region (CYP2E1 gene) was: 98% wild genotype and 2% heterozygous. Intronic region: 78% wild genotype; 20% heterozygous and 2% homozygous variant. GST enzyme genes: 24% Null GSTM1 and 22% Null GSTT1. Patients with any variant allele of the CYP2E1 gene were grouped in the statistical analyses. Conclusion: Patients with the CYP2E1 variant genotype or Null GSTT1 showed higher risk of presenting DILI (p = 0.09; OR: 4.57; 95% CI: 0.75-27.6). Individuals with both genotypes had no increased risk compared to individuals with one genotype.

Factors associated with mortality in severe community-acquired pneumonia: A multicenter cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Describe characteristics and outcomes of CAP admitted to public ICUs in Brazil. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study in 4 Tertiary Public Hospitals in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil during 2016. Patients admitted to ICUs with a diagnosis of community-acquired pneumonia were included. Clinical and outcomes data were collected from Epimed Monitor System. RESULTS: From 7902 admissions, 802 patients (10, 1%) were included and analyzed. Main source of admission was the emergency department (78, 3%). Median age was 66 (IQR 54-77) years, SAPS3 71(IQR 58-83) and SOFA D1 9(IQR 5-12) points. 67% of patients needed invasive mechanical ventilation, 12% hemodialysis. 47% required vasopressors. ICU and hospital mortality were 55.9% and 66.5% respectively. In a multivariate analysis, malnutrition [OR 2.28(1.21-4.3)], septic shock at admission [OR 1.95(1.39-2.75)], AIDS [3.04(1.16-7.93]), invasive mechanical ventilation [5.07(5.54-7.27)], age > 65 years [2.07(1.48-2.90)] and LOS >1 day before ICU admission [1.90(1.34-2.71)] were associated with increased mortality. CONCLUSION: CAP is associated with high mortality in patients admitted to public ICUs in Brazil. The current findings may help improve resource allocation and should aim at improving access to ICU care since delayed admission was associated with increased hospital mortality.

Asthma mortality in Brazil, 1980-2012: a regional perspective.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate asthma mortality rates in Brazil for the period 1980-2012. METHODS: On the basis of data from the Brazilian National Ministry of Health Mortality Database, we estimated mortality rates by calculating moving averages from a municipal perspective that would allow an evaluation differentiating between urban, rural, and intermediate (rurban) Brazil during the period 2002-2012. Trends were assessed using simple linear regression. RESULTS: On average, 2,339 asthma-related deaths were reported per year during the study period. Asthma ranged from the 53rd to 95th leading cause of death. There was a decrease in asthma mortality rates in the country, from 1.92/100,000 population in 1980 to 1.21/100,000 population in 2012. From the municipal perspective, rates fell in urban and rurban Brazil, but increased in rural Brazil, except in the 5-34-year age group. Asthma mortality rates fell in the population under 25 years of age and increased among those over 74 years of age. Rates were always higher in females. CONCLUSIONS: Asthma mortality rates in Brazil have been decreasing slightly, with the decrease being more marked in the decade 2002-2012. Only the northeastern region of Brazil showed the opposite trend. Asthma mortality rates in urban and rurban Brazil showed a downward trend similar to that of the national scenario, whereas rural Brazil showed the opposite behavior. Analysis by age group showed that rates decreased among younger individuals and increased among the elderly aged ≥ 75 years.

Planning and understanding the intensive care network in the State of Rio de Janeiro (RJ), Brazil: a complex societal problem. / Planejamento e compreensão da rede de terapia intensiva no Estado do Rio de Janeiro: um problema social complexo.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the optimal number of adult intensive care unit beds to reduce patient's queue waiting time and to propose policy strategies. METHODS: Multimethodological approach: (a) quantitative time series and queueing theory were used to predict the demand and estimate intensive care unit beds in different scenarios; (b) qualitative focus group and content analysis were used to explore physicians' attitudes and provide insights into their behaviors and belief-driven healthcare delivery changes. RESULTS: A total of 33,101 requests for 268 regulated intensive care unit beds in one year resulted in 25% admissions, 55% queue abandonment and 20% deaths. Maintaining current intensive care unit arrival and exit rates, there would need 628 beds to ensure a maximum wait time of six hours. A reduction of the current abandonment rates due to clinical improvement or the average intensive care unit length of stay would decrease the number of beds to 471 and 366, respectively. If both were reduced, the number would reach 275 beds. The interviews generated 3 main themes: (1) the doctor's conflict: fair, legal, ethical and shared priorities in the decision-making process; (2) a failure of access: invisible queues and a lack of infrastructure; and (3) societal drama: deterioration of public policies and health care networks. CONCLUSION: The queue should be treated as a complex societal problem with a multifactorial origin requiring integrated solutions. Improving intensive care unit protocols and reengineering the general wards may decrease the length of stay. It is essential to redefine and consolidate the regulatory centers to organize the queue and provide available resources in a timely manner, by using priority criteria, working with stakeholders to guarantee clinical governance and network organization.

OBJETIVO: Determinar o número de leitos de UTI para pacientes adultos a fim de reduzir o tempo de espera na fila e propor políticas estratégicas. MÉTODOS: Abordagem multimetodológica: (a) quantitativa, através de séries temporais e teoria de filas, para prever a demanda e estimar o número de leitos de terapia intensiva em diferentes cenários; (b) qualitativa, através do grupo focal e análise do conteúdo, para explorar o comportamento, atitudes e as crenças dos médicos nas mudanças da saúde. RESULTADOS: As 33.101 solicitações de internação nos 268 leitos regulados de terapia intensiva, durante 1 ano, resultaram na admissão de 25% dos pacientes, 55% abandonos da fila e 20% de óbitos. Mantidas as taxas atuais de entrada e saída da unidade de terapia intensiva, seriam necessários 628 leitos para assegurar que o tempo máximo de espera fosse de 6 horas. A redução das atuais taxas de abandono, em razão de melhora clínica ou a redução do tempo médio de permanência na unidade, diminuiria o número de leitos necessários para 471 e para 366, respectivamente. Caso se conseguissem ambos os objetivos, o número chegaria a 275 leitos. As entrevistas geraram três temas principais: o conflito do médico: a necessidade de estabelecer prioridades justas, legais, éticas e compartilhadas na tomada de decisão; o fracasso no acesso: filas invisíveis e falta de infraestrutura; o drama social: deterioração das políticas públicas e desarticulação das redes de saúde. CONCLUSÃO: A fila deve ser tratada como um problema social complexo, de origem multifatorial e que requer soluções integradas. Redimensionar o número de leitos não é a única solução. Melhorar os protocolos e prover a reengenharia das enfermarias gerais podem reduzir o tempo de permanência na unidade. É essencial consolidar as centrais de regulação para organizar a fila e fornecer os recursos disponíveis em tempo adequado, usando critérios de prioridade e trabalhando em conjunto com as pessoas envolvidas para garantir a governança clínica e a organização da rede.

Asthma mortality in Brazil, 1980-2012: a regional perspective / Mortalidade por asma no Brasil, 1980-2012: uma perspectiva regional

ABSTRACT Objective: To estimate asthma mortality rates in Brazil for the period 1980-2012. Methods: On the basis of data from the Brazilian National Ministry of Health Mortality Database, we estimated mortality rates by calculating moving averages from a municipal perspective that would allow an evaluation differentiating between urban, rural, and intermediate (rurban) Brazil during the period 2002-2012. Trends were assessed using simple linear regression. Results: On average, 2,339 asthma-related deaths were reported per year during the study period. Asthma ranged from the 53rd to 95th leading cause of death. There was a decrease in asthma mortality rates in the country, from 1.92/100,000 population in 1980 to 1.21/100,000 population in 2012. From the municipal perspective, rates fell in urban and rurban Brazil, but increased in rural Brazil, except in the 5-34-year age group. Asthma mortality rates fell in the population under 25 years of age and increased among those over 74 years of age. Rates were always higher in females. Conclusions: Asthma mortality rates in Brazil have been decreasing slightly, with the decrease being more marked in the decade 2002-2012. Only the northeastern region of Brazil showed the opposite trend. Asthma mortality rates in urban and rurban Brazil showed a downward trend similar to that of the national scenario, whereas rural Brazil showed the opposite behavior. Analysis by age group showed that rates decreased among younger individuals and increased among the elderly aged ≥ 75 years.

RESUMO Objetivo: Estimar as taxas de mortalidade por asma no Brasil no período de 1980-2012. Métodos: A partir dos dados do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade do Ministério da Saúde, as taxas de mortalidade foram estimadas pelo cálculo de médias móveis numa perspectiva municipal que permitisse a avaliação diferenciada entre Brasil urbano, rural e intermediário (rurbano) no período de 2002-2012. As tendências foram avaliadas através de regressão linear simples. Resultados: Em média, foram notificadas 2.339 mortes anuais por asma no período estudado. A asma variou entre 53ª e 95ª causa de óbito. Houve decréscimo das taxas de mortalidade no país: 1,92/100.000 habitantes em 1980 e 1,21/100.000 habitantes em 2012. Na perspectiva municipal, as taxas caíram no Brasil urbano e rurbano, mas aumentaram no Brasil rural, exceto na faixa etária de 5-34 anos. As taxas de mortalidade caíram na população com até 24 anos e aumentaram entre os maiores de 74 anos. O coeficiente de mortalidade foi sempre superior no sexo feminino. Conclusões: As taxas de mortalidade por asma estão diminuindo no Brasil de modo discreto, sendo mais marcante na década 2002-2012. Apenas a região Nordeste teve tendência oposta. As taxas de mortalidade no Brasil urbano e rurbano tiveram comportamento de queda semelhante ao do cenário nacional, enquanto o Brasil rural teve comportamento oposto. Quando consideradas as faixas etárias, as taxas diminuíram entre os mais jovens e aumentaram entre idosos ≥ 75 anos.

Planejamento e compreensão da rede de terapia intensiva no Estado do Rio de Janeiro: um problema social complexo / Planning and understanding the intensive care network in the State of Rio de Janeiro (RJ), Brazil: a complex societal problem

RESUMO Objetivo: Determinar o número de leitos de UTI para pacientes adultos a fim de reduzir o tempo de espera na fila e propor políticas estratégicas. Métodos: Abordagem multimetodológica: (a) quantitativa, através de séries temporais e teoria de filas, para prever a demanda e estimar o número de leitos de terapia intensiva em diferentes cenários; (b) qualitativa, através do grupo focal e análise do conteúdo, para explorar o comportamento, atitudes e as crenças dos médicos nas mudanças da saúde. Resultados: As 33.101 solicitações de internação nos 268 leitos regulados de terapia intensiva, durante 1 ano, resultaram na admissão de 25% dos pacientes, 55% abandonos da fila e 20% de óbitos. Mantidas as taxas atuais de entrada e saída da unidade de terapia intensiva, seriam necessários 628 leitos para assegurar que o tempo máximo de espera fosse de 6 horas. A redução das atuais taxas de abandono, em razão de melhora clínica ou a redução do tempo médio de permanência na unidade, diminuiria o número de leitos necessários para 471 e para 366, respectivamente. Caso se conseguissem ambos os objetivos, o número chegaria a 275 leitos. As entrevistas geraram três temas principais: o conflito do médico: a necessidade de estabelecer prioridades justas, legais, éticas e compartilhadas na tomada de decisão; o fracasso no acesso: filas invisíveis e falta de infraestrutura; o drama social: deterioração das políticas públicas e desarticulação das redes de saúde. Conclusão: A fila deve ser tratada como um problema social complexo, de origem multifatorial e que requer soluções integradas. Redimensionar o número de leitos não é a única solução. Melhorar os protocolos e prover a reengenharia das enfermarias gerais podem reduzir o tempo de permanência na unidade. É essencial consolidar as centrais de regulação para organizar a fila e fornecer os recursos disponíveis em tempo adequado, usando critérios de prioridade e trabalhando em conjunto com as pessoas envolvidas para garantir a governança clínica e a organização da rede.

ABSTRACT Objectives: To determine the optimal number of adult intensive care unit beds to reduce patient's queue waiting time and to propose policy strategies. Methods: Multimethodological approach: (a) quantitative time series and queueing theory were used to predict the demand and estimate intensive care unit beds in different scenarios; (b) qualitative focus group and content analysis were used to explore physicians' attitudes and provide insights into their behaviors and belief-driven healthcare delivery changes. Results: A total of 33,101 requests for 268 regulated intensive care unit beds in one year resulted in 25% admissions, 55% queue abandonment and 20% deaths. Maintaining current intensive care unit arrival and exit rates, there would need 628 beds to ensure a maximum wait time of six hours. A reduction of the current abandonment rates due to clinical improvement or the average intensive care unit length of stay would decrease the number of beds to 471 and 366, respectively. If both were reduced, the number would reach 275 beds. The interviews generated 3 main themes: (1) the doctor's conflict: fair, legal, ethical and shared priorities in the decision-making process; (2) a failure of access: invisible queues and a lack of infrastructure; and (3) societal drama: deterioration of public policies and health care networks. Conclusion: The queue should be treated as a complex societal problem with a multifactorial origin requiring integrated solutions. Improving intensive care unit protocols and reengineering the general wards may decrease the length of stay. It is essential to redefine and consolidate the regulatory centers to organize the queue and provide available resources in a timely manner, by using priority criteria, working with stakeholders to guarantee clinical governance and network organization.

Impact of smoking on sputum culture conversion and pulmonary tuberculosis treatment outcomes in Brazil: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of smoking on pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) treatment outcomes and the two-month conversion rates for Mycobacterium tuberculosis sputum cultures among patients with culture-confirmed PTB in an area with a moderate incidence of tuberculosis in Brazil. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of PTB patients diagnosed and treated at the Thoracic Diseases Institute of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro between 2004 and 2012. RESULTS: Of the 298 patients diagnosed with PTB during the study period, 174 were included in the outcome analysis: 97 (55.7%) were never-smokers, 31 (17.8%) were former smokers, and 46 (26.5%) were current smokers. Smoking was associated with a delay in sputum culture conversion at the end of the second month of TB treatment (relative risk = 3.58 &091;95% CI: 1.3-9.86&093;; p = 0.01), as well as with poor treatment outcomes (relative risk = 6.29 &091;95% CI: 1.57-25.21&093;; p = 0.009). The association between smoking and a positive culture in the second month of treatment was statistically significant among the current smokers (p = 0.027). CONCLUSIONS: In our sample, the probability of a delay in sputum culture conversion was higher in current smokers than in never-smokers, as was the probability of a poor treatment outcome.