Air pollution from forest burning as environmental risk for millions of inhabitants of the Brazilian Amazon: an exposure indicator for human health.

In this study, we propose an indicator of air pollution exposure to identify potential hazardous areas for human health in the Amazon and Central-West Regions of Brazil from 2010 to 2019. This indicator aggregates both concentrations and time of exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), according to the current limit recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). We used daily PM2.5 averages obtained from the Brazilian Health Integrated Environmental Information System (SISAM) to calculate the percentages of days with PM2.5 concentrations exceeding the limit of 15µg/m³ per year and per month. From 2010 to 2019, the months from August to October presented the largest areas and the highest percentages of days with unacceptable pollution concentration values, harmful to human health. These areas were concentrated in the Arc of Deforestation. Therefore, 60% of the residents of the Amazon and Central-West regions were subjected to inadequate air quality for approximately six months per year. The proposed indicator is reproducible and appropriate to monitor areas of exposure and risk for human health.

Short-term association between ambient air pollution and cardio-respiratory mortality in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Several epidemiological studies have reported associations between ambient air pollution and mortality. However, relatively few studies have investigated this relationship in Brazil using individual-level data. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the short-term association between exposure to particulate matter <10 µm (PM10) and ozone (O3), and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, between 2012 and 2017. METHODS: We used a time-stratified case-crossover study design with individual-level mortality data. Our sample included 76,798 deaths from cardiovascular diseases and 36,071 deaths from respiratory diseases. Individual exposure to air pollutants was estimated by the inverse distance weighting method. We used data from seven monitoring stations for PM10 (24-hour mean), eight stations for O3 (8-hour max), 13 stations for air temperature (24-hour mean), and 12 humidity stations (24-hour mean). We estimated the mortality effects of PM10 and O3 over a 3-day lag using conditional logistic regression models combined with distributed lag non-linear models. The models were adjusted for daily mean temperature and daily mean absolute humidity. Effect estimates were presented as odds ratios (OR) with their 95% confidence interval (CI) associated with a 10 µg/m3 increase in each pollutant exposure. RESULTS: No consistent associations were observed for both pollutant and mortality outcome. The cumulative OR of PM10 exposure was 1.01 (95% CI 0.99-1.02) for respiratory mortality and 1.00 (95% CI 0.99-1.01) for cardiovascular mortality. For O3 exposure, we also found no evidence of increased mortality for cardiovascular (OR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00-1.01) or respiratory diseases (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.98-1.00). Our findings were similar across age and gender subgroups, and different model specifications. CONCLUSION: We found no consistent associations between the PM10 and O3 concentrations observed in our study and cardio-respiratory mortality. Future studies need to explore more refined exposure assessment methods to improve health risk estimates and the planning and evaluation of public health and environmental policies.

Heat waves and mortality in the Brazilian Amazon: Effect modification by heat wave characteristics, population subgroup, and cause of death.

BACKGROUND: The Brazilian Amazon faces overlapping socio-environmental, sanitary, and climate challenges, and is a hotspot of concern due to projected increases in temperature and in the frequency of heat waves. Understanding the effects of extreme events on health is a central issue for developing climate policies focused on the population's health. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the effects of heat waves on mortality in the Brazilian Amazon, examining effect modification according to various heat wave definitions, population subgroups, and causes of death. METHODS: We included all 32 Amazonian municipalities with more than 100,000 inhabitants. The study period was from 2000 to 2018. We obtained mortality data from the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Public Healthcare System, and meteorological data were derived from the ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset. Heat waves were defined according to their intensity (90th; 92.5th; 95th; 97.5th and 99th temperature percentiles) and duration (≥2, ≥3, and ≥4 days). In each city, we used a time-stratified case-crossover study to estimate the effects of each heat wave definition on mortality, according to population subgroup and cause of death. The lagged effects of heat waves were estimated using conditional Poisson regression combined with distributed lag non-linear models. Models were adjusted for specific humidity and public holidays. Risk ratios were pooled for the Brazilian Amazon using a univariate random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: The pooled relative risks (RR) for mortality from total non-external causes varied between 1.03 (95% CI: 1.01-1.06), for the less stringent heat wave definition, and 1.18 (95% CI: 1.04-1.33) for the more stringent definition. The mortality risk rose as the heat wave intensity increased, although the increase from 2 to 3, and 3-4 days was small. Although not statistically different, our results suggest a higher mortality risk for the elderly, this was also higher for women than men, and for cardiovascular causes than for non-external or respiratory ones. CONCLUSIONS: Heat waves were associated with a higher risk of mortality from non-external causes and cardiovascular diseases. Heat wave intensity played a more important role than duration in determining this risk. Suggestive evidence indicated that the elderly and women were more vulnerable to the effects of heat waves on mortality.

Air pollution from forest burning as environmental risk for millions of inhabitants of the Brazilian Amazon: an exposure indicator for human health / Poluição do ar por queimadas florestais como risco ambiental para milhões de habitantes da Amazônia brasileira: um indicador de exposição para a saúde humana / Contaminación del aire por incendios forestales como riesgo ambiental para millones de habitantes de la Amazonía brasileña: un indicador de exposición para la salud humana

Abstract: In this study, we propose an indicator of air pollution exposure to identify potential hazardous areas for human health in the Amazon and Central-West Regions of Brazil from 2010 to 2019. This indicator aggregates both concentrations and time of exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), according to the current limit recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). We used daily PM2.5 averages obtained from the Brazilian Health Integrated Environmental Information System (SISAM) to calculate the percentages of days with PM2.5 concentrations exceeding the limit of 15µg/m³ per year and per month. From 2010 to 2019, the months from August to October presented the largest areas and the highest percentages of days with unacceptable pollution concentration values, harmful to human health. These areas were concentrated in the Arc of Deforestation. Therefore, 60% of the residents of the Amazon and Central-West regions were subjected to inadequate air quality for approximately six months per year. The proposed indicator is reproducible and appropriate to monitor areas of exposure and risk for human health.

Resumo: Este estudo propõe um indicador de exposição à poluição do ar para identificar potenciais áreas de risco para a saúde humana na região amazônica e no Centro-oeste do Brasil de 2010 a 2019. Esse indicador agrega as concentrações e o tempo de exposição à partículas finas de poluição (PM2.5), de acordo com o limite atual recomendado pela Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS). Foram utilizadas médias diárias de PM2.5 obtidas do Sistema de Informações Ambientais Integrado a Saúde (SISAM) para o cálculo dos percentuais de dias cujas concentrações ultrapassaram o limite de 15μg/m³ por ano e por mês. De 2010 a 2019, os meses de agosto a outubro apresentaram as maiores áreas e os maiores percentuais de dias com valores de concentração inaceitáveis para a saúde humana. Tais áreas estavam concentradas na região do arco do desmatamento. Além disso, 60% dos moradores da região amazônica e do Centro-oeste eram expostos a uma qualidade inadequada do ar por aproximadamente seis meses por ano. O indicador proposto é reprodutível e adequado para monitorizar as áreas de exposição e de risco para a saúde humana.

Resumen: Este estudio propone un indicador de exposición a la contaminación del aire para identificar posibles áreas de riesgo para la salud humana en la región amazónica y el Medio Oeste de Brasil de 2010 a 2019. Este indicador agrega las concentraciones y el tiempo de exposición a partículas finas de contaminación (PM2.5), de acuerdo con el límite actual recomendado por la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS). Se utilizaron los promedios diarios de PM2.5 obtenidos del Sistema Integrado de Información Ambiental en Salud (SISAM) para calcular el porcentaje de días cuyas concentraciones superaron el límite de 15μg/m³ por año y por mes. En la década de 2010 a 2019, los meses de agosto a octubre tuvieron las áreas más grandes y los porcentajes más altos de días con valores de concentración inaceptables para la salud humana. Tales áreas se concentraron en la región del arco de la deforestación. Además, el 60% de los residentes de la región amazónica y el Medio Oeste estuvieron sujetos a una calidad del aire inadecuada durante aproximadamente seis meses al año. El indicador propuesto es reproducible y adecuado para monitorizar las áreas de exposición y de riesgo para la salud humana.

The Salvador Primary Care Longitudinal Study of Child Development (CohortDICa) Following the Zika Epidemic: Study Protocol.

This article describes the Salvador Primary Care Longitudinal Study of Child Development (CohortDICa). The exposed group was defined by confirmation of Congenital Zika Syndrome (CZS) diagnosed through computed tomography, magnetic resonance or transfontanellar ultrasound. A random selection of the 169 exposed children led to a subgroup of 120 children who were paired with children from the Live Birth Information System, according to birthdate, residence in the same street or neighborhood, and gestational age, resulting in 115 subjects in the non-exposed group. Following recruitment and before the participants completed 42 months, three measures were applied to assess cognitive, motor, and language performance, corresponding to three home visits. Social characteristics of the families and children, and the neurocognitive development of the children will be compared across the CZS exposed group (n = 147), the typical children with no exposure to CZS (n = 115) and the STORCH exposed group (Syphilis, Toxoplasma gondii, Rubella, Cytomegalovirus, and Herpes simplex) (n = 20). Primary Health Care (PHC) should include long-term care strategies for the care of children and family members, and might benefit from the research, teaching, and extension activities provided in this study. In the face of the consequences of the Zika virus epidemic, an opportunity arose to intervene in the integrated care of child development within PHC, including, on an equal basis, typical children and those with delays or disabilities in the first six years of life.

Improving geocoding matching rates of structured addresses in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Strategies for improving geocoded data often rely on interactive manual processes that can be time-consuming and impractical for large-scale projects. In this study, we evaluated different automated strategies for improving address quality and geocoding matching rates using a large dataset of addresses from death records in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Mortality data included 132,863 records with address information in a structured format. We performed regular expressions and dictionary-based methods for address standardization and enrichment. All records were linked by their postal code or street name to the Brazilian National Address Directory (DNE) obtained from Brazil's Postal Service. Residential addresses were geocoded using Google Maps. Records with address data validated down to the street level and location type returned as rooftop, range interpolated, or geometric center were considered a geocoding match. The overall performance was assessed by manually reviewing a sample of addresses. Out of the original 132,863 records, 85.7% (n = 113,876) were geocoded and validated, out of which 83.8% were matched as rooftop (high accuracy). Overall sensitivity and specificity were 87% (95%CI: 86-88) and 98% (95%CI: 96-99), respectively. Our results indicate that address quality and geocoding completeness can be reliably improved with an automated geocoding process. R scripts and instructions to reproduce all the analyses are available at https://github.com/reprotc/geocoding.

The effect of laboratory testing on COVID-19 monitoring indicators: an analysis of the 50 countries with the highest number of cases. / O efeito da testagem laboratorial nos indicadores de acompanhamento da COVID-19: uma análise dos 50 países com maior número de casos.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse how testing the population influences the health indicators used to monitor the COVID-19 pandemic in the 50 countries with the highest number of diagnosed cases. METHODS: This was an ecological study using secondary data retrieved on 8/19/2020. Cumulative incidence, mortality rate, case-fatality rate, and proportion of positive tests were calculated. The data were described and presented graphically, with their respective Spearman Correlation Coefficients. RESULTS: The testing rate varied enormously between countries. Cumulative incidence and the proportion of positive tests were correlated with the number of tests, while the mortality rate and case-fatality rate showed low correlation with this indicator. CONCLUSION: Most countries do not test enough to ensure adequate monitoring of the pandemic, and this is reflected in the quality of the indicators. Expanding the number of tests is essential, but it needs to be accompanied by other measures, such as isolation of diagnosed cases and contact tracing.

Projections of excess cardiovascular mortality related to temperature under different climate change scenarios and regionalized climate model simulations in Brazilian cities.

BACKGROUND: There is an urgent need for more information about the climate change impact on health in order to strengthen the commitment to tackle climate change. However, few studies have quantified the health impact of climate change in Brazil and in the Latin America region. In this paper, we projected the impacts of temperature on cardiovascular (CVD) mortality according to two climate change scenarios and two regionalized climate model simulations in Brazilian cities. METHODS: We estimated the temperature-CVD mortality relationship in 21 Brazilian cities, using distributed lag non-linear models in a two-stage time-series analysis. We combined the observed exposure-response functions with the daily temperature projected under two representative concentration pathways (RCP), RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, and two regionalized climate model simulations, Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5. RESULTS: We observed a trend of reduction in mortality related to low temperatures and a trend of increase in mortality related to high temperatures, according to all the investigated models and scenarios. In most places, the increase in mortality related to high temperatures outweighed the reduction in mortality related to low temperatures, causing a net increase in the excess temperature-related mortality. These trends were steeper according to the higher emission scenario, RCP8.5, and to the Eta-HadGEM2-ES model. According to RCP8.5, our projections suggested that the temperature-related mortality fractions in 2090-99 compared to 2010-2019 would increase by 8.6% and 1.7%, under Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5, respectively. According to RCP4.5, these values would be 0.7% and -0.6%. CONCLUSIONS: For the same climate model, we observed a greater increase trend in temperature-CVD mortality according to RCP8.5, highlighting a greater health impact associated with the higher emission scenario. Our results may be useful to support public policies and strategies for mitigation of and adaptation to climate change, particularly in the health sector.

Temperature and cardiovascular mortality in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: effect modification by individual-level and neighbourhood-level factors.

BACKGROUND: Many factors related to susceptibility or vulnerability to temperature effects on mortality have been proposed in the literature. However, there is limited evidence of effect modification by some individual-level factors such as occupation, colour/race, education level and community-level factors. We investigated the effect modification of the temperature-cardiovascular mortality relationship by individual-level and neighbourhood-level factors in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. METHODS: We used a case-crossover study to estimate the total effect of temperature on cardiovascular mortality in Rio de Janeiro between 2001 and 2018, and the effect modification by individual-level and neighbourhood-level factors. Individual-level factors included sex, age, colour/race, education, and place of death. Neighbourhood-level characteristics included social development index (SDI), income, electricity consumption and demographic change. We used conditional Poisson regression models combined with distributed lag non-linear models, adjusted for humidity and public holidays. RESULTS: Our results suggest a higher vulnerability to high temperatures among the elderly, women, non-hospitalised deaths, and people with a lower education level. Vulnerability to low temperatures was higher among the elderly, men, non-white people, and for primary education level. As for neighbourhood-level factors, we identified greater vulnerability to low and high temperatures in places with lower SDI, lower income, lower consumption of electricity, and higher demographic growth. CONCLUSION: The effects of temperature on cardiovascular disease mortality in Rio de Janeiro vary according to individual-level and neighbourhood-level factors. These findings are valuable to inform policymakers about the most vulnerable groups and places, in order to develop more effective and equitable public policies.

O efeito da testagem laboratorial nos indicadores de acompanhamento da COVID-19: uma análise dos 50 países com maior número de casos / El efecto de las pruebas de laboratorio en los indicadores de seguimiento de COVID-19: un análisis de los 50 países con el mayor número de casos / The effect of laboratory testing on COVID-19 monitoring indicators: an analysis of the 50 countries with the highest number of cases

Objetivo: Analisar como a testagem da população influencia os indicadores de saúde usados para monitorar a pandemia de COVID-19 nos 50 países com maior número de casos diagnosticados. Métodos: Estudo ecológico sobre dados secundários, extraídos em 19/08/2020. Foram calculadas incidência acumulada, taxa de mortalidade, letalidade e proporção de testes positivos. Os dados foram descritos e apresentados graficamente, com o respectivo coeficiente de correlação de Spearman. Resultados: A taxa de testagem variou enormemente entre os países. A incidência acumulada e a proporção de testes positivos foram correlacionadas ao número de testes, enquanto a taxa de mortalidade e a letalidade apresentaram correlação baixa com esse indicador. Conclusão: A maioria dos países não testa o suficiente para garantir adequado monitoramento da pandemia, com reflexo na qualidade dos indicadores. A ampliação do número de testes é fundamental; porém, ela deve ser acompanhada de outras medidas, como isolamento de casos diagnosticados e rastreamento de contatos.

Objetivo: Analizar cómo el testeo poblacional influye en los indicadores de salud utilizados para monitorear la pandemia de COVID-19 en los 50 países con mayor número de casos diagnosticados. Métodos: Estudio ecológico, con datos secundarios, recogidos el 19/8/2020. Se calcularon la incidencia acumulada, la tasa de mortalidad, la letalidad y la proporción de pruebas positivas. Los datos fueron descritos y presentados gráficamente, con el respectivo Coeficiente de Correlación de Spearman. Resultados: La tasa de testeo varió enormemente entre los países. La incidencia acumulada y la proporción de pruebas positivas se correlacionaron con el número de pruebas, mientras que la tasa de mortalidad y de letalidad mostraron una baja correlación con este indicador. Conclusión: La mayoría de los países no realizan suficientes pruebas para garantizar un seguimiento adecuado de la pandemia, lo que se refleja en la calidad de los indicadores. La ampliación del número de pruebas es fundamental, y debe ir acompañada de aislamiento de casos y seguimiento de contactos.

Objective: To analyse how testing the population influences the health indicators used to monitor the COVID-19 pandemic in the 50 countries with the highest number of diagnosed cases. Methods:This was an ecological study using secondary data retrieved on 8/19/2020. Cumulative incidence, mortality rate, case-fatality rate, and proportion of positive tests were calculated. The data were described and presented graphically, with their respective Spearman Correlation Coefficients. Results: The testing rate varied enormously between countries. Cumulative incidence and the proportion of positive tests were correlated with the number of tests, while the mortality rate and case-fatality rate showed low correlation with this indicator. Conclusion: Most countries do not test enough to ensure adequate monitoring of the pandemic, and this is reflected in the quality of the indicators. Expanding the number of tests is essential, but it needs to be accompanied by other measures, such as isolation of diagnosed cases and contact tracing.

The effect of laboratory testing on COVID-19 monitoring indicators: an analysis of the 50 countries with the highest number of cases / El efecto de las pruebas de laboratorio en los indicadores de seguimiento de COVID-19: un análisis de los 50 países con el mayor número de casos / O efeito da testagem laboratorial nos indicadores de acompanhamento da COVID-19: uma análise dos 50 países com maior número de casos

Objective: To analyze how population testing influences the health indicators used to monitor the COVID-19 pandemic in the 50 countries with the highest number of diagnosed cases. Methods: Ecological study, with secondary data, downloaded on 8/19/2020. Accumulated incidence, mortality rate, case-fatality rate, and proportion of positive tests were calculated. The data were described and presented graphically, with the respective Spearman Correlation Coefficient. Results: The testing rate varied enormously between countries. The accumulated incidence and the proportion of positive tests were correlated with the number of tests, while the mortality rate and case-fatality rate showed a low correlation with this indicator. Conclusion: Most countries do not test enough to ensure adequate monitoring of the pandemic, reflecting on the quality of the indicators. The expansion of the number of tests is essential, but it needs to be accompanied by other measures, such as isolation of diagnosed cases and contact tracking.

Objetivo: Analisar como a testagem da população influencia os indicadores de saúde usados para monitorar a pandemia de COVID-19 nos 50 países com maior número de casos diagnosticados. Métodos: Estudo ecológico sobre dados secundários, extraídos em 19/08/2020. Foram calculadas incidência acumulada, taxa de mortalidade, letalidade e proporção de testes positivos. Os dados foram descritos e apresentados graficamente, com o respectivo coeficiente de correlação de Spearman. Resultados: A taxa de testagem variou enormemente entre os países. A incidência acumulada e a proporção de testes positivos foram correlacionadas ao número de testes, enquanto a taxa de mortalidade e a letalidade apresentaram correlação baixa com esse indicador. Conclusão: A maioria dos países não testa o suficiente para garantir adequado monitoramento da pandemia, com reflexo na qualidade dos indicadores. A ampliação do número de testes é fundamental; porém, ela deve ser acompanhada de outras medidas, como isolamento de casos diagnosticados e rastreamento de contatos.

Social distancing measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic: potential impacts and challenges in Brazil. / Medidas de distanciamento social no controle da pandemia de COVID-19: potenciais impactos e desafios no Brasil.

The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged researchers and policy makers to identify public safety measures forpreventing the collapse of healthcare systems and reducingdeaths. This narrative review summarizes the available evidence on the impact of social distancing measures on the epidemic and discusses the implementation of these measures in Brazil. Articles on the effect of social distancing on COVID-19 were selected from the PubMed, medRXiv and bioRvix databases. Federal and state legislation was analyzed to summarize the strategies implemented in Brazil. Social distancing measures adopted by the population appear effective, particularly when implemented in conjunction with the isolation of cases and quarantining of contacts. Therefore, social distancing measures, and social protection policies to guarantee the sustainability of these measures, should be implemented. To control COVID-19 in Brazil, it is also crucial that epidemiological monitoring is strengthened at all three levels of the Brazilian National Health System (SUS). This includes evaluating and usingsupplementary indicators to monitor the progression of the pandemic and the effect of the control measures, increasing testing capacity, and making disaggregated notificationsand testing resultstransparentand broadly available.

A pandemia de COVID-19 tem desafiado pesquisadores e gestores a encontrar medidas de saúde pública que evitem o colapso dos sistemas de saúde e reduzam os óbitos. Esta revisão narrativa buscou sistematizar as evidências sobre o impacto das medidas de distanciamento social na epidemia de COVID-19 e discutir sua implementação no Brasil. Foram triados artigos sobre o efeito do distanciamento social na COVID-19 no PubMed, medRXiv e bioRvix, e analisados atos do poder público nos níveis federal e estadual para sumarizar as estratégias implementadas no Brasil. Os achados sugerem que o distanciamento social adotado por população é efetivo, especialmente quando combinado ao isolamento de casos e à quarentena dos contatos. Recomenda-se a implementação de medidas de distanciamento social e de políticas de proteção social para garantir a sustentabilidade dessas medidas. Para o controle da COVID-19 no Brasil, é imprescindível que essas medidas estejam aliadas ao fortalecimento do sistema de vigilância nos três níveis do SUS, que inclui a avaliação e uso de indicadores adicionais para monitorar a evolução da pandemia e o efeito das medidas de controle, a ampliação da capacidade de testagem, e divulgação ampla e transparente das notificações e de testagem desagregadas.

Medidas de distanciamento social no controle da pandemia de COVID-19: potenciais impactos e desafios no Brasil / Social distancing measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic: potential impacts and challenges in Brazil

Resumo A pandemia de COVID-19 tem desafiado pesquisadores e gestores a encontrar medidas de saúde pública que evitem o colapso dos sistemas de saúde e reduzam os óbitos. Esta revisão narrativa buscou sistematizar as evidências sobre o impacto das medidas de distanciamento social na epidemia de COVID-19 e discutir sua implementação no Brasil. Foram triados artigos sobre o efeito do distanciamento social na COVID-19 no PubMed, medRXiv e bioRvix, e analisados atos do poder público nos níveis federal e estadual para sumarizar as estratégias implementadas no Brasil. Os achados sugerem que o distanciamento social adotado por população é efetivo, especialmente quando combinado ao isolamento de casos e à quarentena dos contatos. Recomenda-se a implementação de medidas de distanciamento social e de políticas de proteção social para garantir a sustentabilidade dessas medidas. Para o controle da COVID-19 no Brasil, é imprescindível que essas medidas estejam aliadas ao fortalecimento do sistema de vigilância nos três níveis do SUS, que inclui a avaliação e uso de indicadores adicionais para monitorar a evolução da pandemia e o efeito das medidas de controle, a ampliação da capacidade de testagem, e divulgação ampla e transparente das notificações e de testagem desagregadas.

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged researchers and policy makers to identify public safety measures forpreventing the collapse of healthcare systems and reducingdeaths. This narrative review summarizes the available evidence on the impact of social distancing measures on the epidemic and discusses the implementation of these measures in Brazil. Articles on the effect of social distancing on COVID-19 were selected from the PubMed, medRXiv and bioRvix databases. Federal and state legislation was analyzed to summarize the strategies implemented in Brazil. Social distancing measures adopted by the population appear effective, particularly when implemented in conjunction with the isolation of cases and quarantining of contacts. Therefore, social distancing measures, and social protection policies to guarantee the sustainability of these measures, should be implemented. To control COVID-19 in Brazil, it is also crucial that epidemiological monitoring is strengthened at all three levels of the Brazilian National Health System (SUS). This includes evaluating and usingsupplementary indicators to monitor the progression of the pandemic and the effect of the control measures, increasing testing capacity, and making disaggregated notificationsand testing resultstransparentand broadly available.

Human Heat stress risk prediction in the Brazilian semiarid Region based on the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature.

OBJECTIVE: the aim of this study is to map thermal stress risks for human health at the São Francisco River Basin (SFRB) in the Semiarid region, for climatic scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. METHODS: The heat stress conditions were defined by the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) indicator and by the average number of annual days in which the WBGT values exceeded the 90th percentile of the reference period. The WBGT was estimated for the climate scenarios RCP 4.5 (intermediate) and 8.5 (pessimistic) for the period 2011-2090 comparing to the period of reference (1961-2005). RESULTS: The projections show that for the pessimistic scenario practically all municipalities of the SFRB region can reach values of WBGT that indicate a high risk for heat stress in the period 2071-2099. For this same scenario and period, the municipalities of the Lower and Under-average regions may present values of WBGT above the 90th percentile of the reference period in more than 90% of the days/year. CONCLUSIONS: These results show that, if the emission of greenhouse gases continues in the present proportions, some municipalities of the SFRB region may present a high risk for heat stress affecting the work capacity and the practice of physical exercises.

Is living near green areas beneficial to mental health? Results of the Pró-Saúde Study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between exposure to green areas in the surroundings of the residence and the presence of common mental disorders among adults, according to different income strata. METHODS: Cross-sectional study with 2,584 participants from the Pró-Saúde Study (2006), residing in the city of Rio de Janeiro. Common Mental Disorders were measured using the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and exposure to green areas was measured using the normalized difference vegetation index, in buffers with radiuses between 100 and 1,500 meters around the residence. We used the mean and maximum normalized difference vegetation index categorized into quartiles. The study population was divided into three subgroups, according to the income: low, intermediate, and high. Odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals were estimated with logistic regression models. The models were adjusted by sex and age, with and without inclusion of physical activity practice. RESULTS: The proportion of common mental disorders was 30% and 39% among men and women, respectively. The results of the adjusted models showed an inverse association between the presence of green areas in the surroundings of the residence and the occurrence of common mental disorders, in the buffer of 200 meters in the intermediate-income group and in the buffers of 400 and 1,500 meters in the low-income group. The odds ratio ranged from 0.52 (buffer of 1,500 meters) to 0.68 (buffer of 200 meters). The association found was independent of physical activity practice. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence found suggests the existence of a beneficial effect of urban green areas on the mental health of lower-income individuals. These findings can help in understanding how the urban environment can affect the mental health of the population.

The effect of ambient temperature on cardiovascular mortality in 27 Brazilian cities.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence on the relationship between temperature and cardiovascular mortality in middle and low-income countries, particularly in Latin America. In this study, we investigated the total effect of temperature on cardiovascular mortality in 27 Brazilian cities, and the effect modification by geographic, socioeconomic, demographic and infrastructure characteristics within cities. METHODS: In the city-specific analysis, we used time-series analyses to estimate the relationship between mean temperature and daily cardiovascular mortality using quasi-Poisson generalized linear models combined with distributed lag non-linear models. In the second stage, a meta-analysis was used to pool the effects of temperature on cardiovascular mortality for Brazil and its five regions (Central-West, North, Northeast, South, and Southeast). We used a meta-regression to examine the effect modification of city-specific geographic, socioeconomic, demographic and infrastructure-related variables. RESULTS: The risks associated with temperature varied across the locations. Higher cardiovascular mortality was associated with low and high temperatures in most of the cities, Brazil and the Central-West, North, South, and Southeast regions. The overall relative risk (RR) for Brazil was 1.26 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.17-1.35) for the 1st percentile of temperature and 1.07 (95% CI: 1.01-1.13) for the 99th percentile of temperature versus the 79th percentile (27.7 °C), where RR was lowest. The temperature range was the variable that best explained the variation in effects among the cities, with greater effects in locations having a broader range. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate effects of low and high temperatures on the risk of cardiovascular mortality in most of Brazil's capital cities, besides a pooled effect for Brazil and the Central-West, North, South, and Southeast regions. These findings can help inform public policies addressing the health impact of temperature extremes, especially in the context of climate change.

Is living near green areas beneficial to mental health? results of the pró-saúde study / Morar perto de áreas verdes é benéfico para a saúde mental? resultados do estudo pró-saúde

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To investigate the association between exposure to green areas in the surroundings of the residence and the presence of common mental disorders among adults, according to different income strata. METHODS Cross-sectional study with 2,584 participants from the Pró-Saúde Study (2006), residing in the city of Rio de Janeiro. Common Mental Disorders were measured using the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and exposure to green areas was measured using the normalized difference vegetation index, in buffers with radiuses between 100 and 1,500 meters around the residence. We used the mean and maximum normalized difference vegetation index categorized into quartiles. The study population was divided into three subgroups, according to the income: low, intermediate, and high. Odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals were estimated with logistic regression models. The models were adjusted by sex and age, with and without inclusion of physical activity practice. RESULTS The proportion of common mental disorders was 30% and 39% among men and women, respectively. The results of the adjusted models showed an inverse association between the presence of green areas in the surroundings of the residence and the occurrence of common mental disorders, in the buffer of 200 meters in the intermediate-income group and in the buffers of 400 and 1,500 meters in the low-income group. The odds ratio ranged from 0.52 (buffer of 1,500 meters) to 0.68 (buffer of 200 meters). The association found was independent of physical activity practice. CONCLUSIONS The evidence found suggests the existence of a beneficial effect of urban green areas on the mental health of lower-income individuals. These findings can help in understanding how the urban environment can affect the mental health of the population.

RESUMO OBJETIVO Investigar a associação entre a exposição às áreas verdes no entorno da residência e a presença de transtornos mentais comuns entre adultos, segundo diferentes estratos de renda. MÉTODOS Estudo seccional com 2.584 participantes do Estudo Pró-Saúde (2006), residentes na cidade do Rio de Janeiro. Os transtornos mentais comuns foram aferidos por meio do General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) e a exposição às áreas verdes pelo índice de vegetação por diferença normalizada, em buffers com raios entre 100 e 1.500 metros em torno da residência. Foram utilizados o índice de vegetação por diferença normalizada médio e máximo categorizado em quartis. A população do estudo foi dividida em três subgrupos, de acordo com a renda: baixa, intermediária e alta. Foram estimadas razões de chances e seus intervalos de 95% de confiança com modelos de regressão logística. Os modelos foram ajustados por sexo e idade, com e sem inclusão da prática de atividade física. RESULTADOS A proporção de transtornos mentais comuns foi de 30% e 39% entre homens e mulheres, respectivamente. Os resultados dos modelos ajustados mostraram associação inversa entre a presença de áreas verdes no entorno do domicílio e a ocorrência de transtornos mentais comuns, no buffer de 200 metros no grupo de renda intermediária e nos buffers de 400 e 1.500 metros no grupo de baixa renda. A razão de chances variou de 0,52 (buffer de 1.500 metros) a 0,68 (buffer de 200 metros). A associação encontrada foi independente da prática de atividade física. CONCLUSÕES As evidências encontradas sugerem a existência de um efeito benéfico de áreas verdes urbanas na saúde mental dos indivíduos de renda mais baixa. Tais achados podem ajudar na compreensão de como o meio ambiente urbano pode afetar a saúde mental da população.

Efeitos da temperatura na mortalidade por doenças cardiovasculares e impactos futuros segundo cenários de mudanças climáticas no Brasil / Temperature effect on mortality due to cardiovascular disease and future impacts under climate change scenarios in Brazil

As doenças cardiovasculares (DCV) são a primeira causa de mortes no Brasil e no mundo. Sua relação com a temperatura ambiente tem sido evidenciada por estudos epidemiológicos. No contexto das mudanças climáticas, de acordo com as projeções de aquecimento e da maior frequência de eventos extremos, é esperado um aumento dos impactos do clima na saúde, como a elevação da mortalidade por DCV atribuída à temperatura. O Brasil está em uma das regiões do globo que mais tem apresentado aquecimento, e as projeções apontam aumentos de até 8-9°C, segundo cenário de nenhuma mitigação. No entanto, há pouca evidência sobre os efeitos da temperatura na mortalidade por DCV e dos impactos associados às mudanças climáticas no Brasil e na América Latina. Neste sentido, o objetivo desta tese foi investigar o efeito da temperatura na mortalidade por DCV no presente e estimar os impactos futuros da temperatura na mortalidade por DCV, segundo diferentes cenários de mudanças climáticas no Brasil. Foram estimados os efeitos da temperatura na mortalidade por DCV nas capitais brasileiras e combinado para todo o Brasil e suas regiões por meio de estudos de séries temporais. Foram incluídos dados diários de óbitos por DCV, temperatura e umidade relativa médias durante o período de estudo que variou de 2000 a 2015. As análises utilizaram modelos lineares generalizados, combinados com os distributed lag non-linear models, com 21 dias de defasagem. A heterogeneidade dos efeitos entre as cidades, segundo características geográficas, socioeconômicas, demográficas e infraestruturais, foi investigada por meio de modelos de metarregressão. A projeção dos impactos das mudanças climáticas na mortalidade por DCV até 2100, foi estimada em termos dos óbitos atribuíveis ao frio e ao calor, conforme temperaturas simuladas segundos os cenários de emissão RCP4.5 e RCP8.5, utilizando dois modelos climáticos regionalizados (Eta-HadGEM2-ES e Eta-MIROC5). Os resultados mostraram o efeito da temperatura ambiente na mortalidade por DCV na maioria das capitais, e o efeito combinado para todo o Brasil e para as regiões Centro-Oeste, Norte, Sudeste e Sul. Foi observada relação exposição-resposta em forma de U e os efeitos foram mais acentuados entre os locais com maior amplitude térmica. Em relação aos impactos das mudanças climáticas, foi observada uma tendência de redução dos óbitos atribuíveis ao frio em todas as capitais brasileiras, e de elevação dos óbitos atribuíveis ao calor e totais na maioria das capitais. Esse aumento é mais intenso segundo o cenário RCP8.5 que não prevê nenhuma estratégia de mitigação das emissões de CO2. Os achados desse estudo são importantes para prover informações para a comunicação do risco, visando a promoção de políticas de saúde e o planejamento de estratégias de enfrentamento e adaptação às transformações do clima

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the leading cause of death in Brazil and worldwide. Its relationship with ambient temperature has been evidenced by epidemiological studies. In the context of climate change, according to warming projections and the greater frequency of extreme events, an increase in impacts of climate in health, such as the rise in CVD mortality attributed to temperature, is expected. Brazil is located in one of the regions in the world that has experienced the most warming, and the projections indicate increases of up to 8-9°C, under scenario of no mitigation. However, there is little evidence on the effects of temperature on CVD mortality and the impacts associated to climate change in Brazil and Latin America. The objective of this work was to investigate the effect of temperature on CVD mortality in the present and to estimate the future impacts of temperature on CVD mortality under different climate change scenarios in Brazil. The effects of temperature on CVD mortality in Brazilian capitals were estimated and pooled for the whole country and its regions using time series studies. Daily data on CVD deaths, average temperature, and relative humidity were included during the study period, which ranged from 2000 to 2015. The analysis used generalized linear models, combined with distributed lag non-linear models, with 21 days of lag. The heterogeneity of effects among cities, according to geographic, socioeconomic, demographic and infrastructural characteristics, was investigated through meta-regression models. The projection of the impacts of climate change on CVD mortality by 2100 was estimated in terms of deaths attributable to cold and heat, with temperature series simulated under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 using two regionalized climate models (Eta- HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5). The results showed the effect of ambient temperature on CVD mortality in most cities, and the pooled effect for all Brazil and the Midwest, North, Southeast, and South regions. the effects were more intense among the cities with greater thermal amplitude. In relation to the impacts of climate change, there was a tendency to reduce deaths attributable to cold, in all Brazilian cities, and to increase total deaths and those attributable to heat, in most analyzed cities. This increase is more intense under the RCP8.5 scenario, which does not consider any mitigation strategy for CO2 emissions. The findings of this study are important to provide information for the communication of the risks aiming at the promotion of health policies and the planning of strategies for adaptation to climate change

Associations of neighborhood socioeconomic, natural and built environmental characteristics with a 13-year trajectory of non-work physical activity among civil servants in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: The Pro-Saude Study.

Positive influences of natural and built environment characteristics on human physical activity have been observed mainly in high-income countries, but mixed results exist. We explored these relationships in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, where exuberant nature coexists with high levels of social inequality and urban violence. Data originated from questionnaires self-administered by 1731 civil servants at university campuses who participated in 4 waves (1999, 2001, 2007, 2012) of a longitudinal study, and had their residential addresses geocoded. In multinomial regression models, adjusted for individual sociodemographic characteristics, mutually adjusted associations were estimated between 13-year trajectories of non-work physical activity and 8 contextual variables: distances from waterfronts, cycle paths, outdoor gym equipment, and squares; 2 indicators of exposure to greenness (a vegetation index - NDVI - derived from satellite images, and trees close to home); an indicator of walkability (street density), and neighborhood average income. Compared to participants living in the upper quartile of distance to waterfronts, those living in its lowest quartile had 2.6-fold higher odds (aOR: 2.62, 95% CI: 1.37-5.01) of reporting non-work PA in all 4 study waves. Similar results were observed in relation to distance to cycle paths; no independent associations were observed with other natural and built environment variables.

Green spaces and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases in the city of Rio de Janeiro.

OBJECTIVE Investigate the association between exposure to green spaces and mortality from ischemic heart and cerebrovascular diseases, and the role of socioeconomic status in this relationship, in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. METHODS Ecological study, with the census tracts as unit of analysis. This study used data from deaths due to ischemic heart and cerebrovascular diseases among residents aged over 30 years, from 2010 to 2012. Exposure to green was estimated using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index based on satellite images. The associations between exposure to green spaces and mortality rates due to ischemic heart and cerebrovascular diseases, standardized by gender and age, were analyzed using conditional autoregressive models, adjusted for the density of light and heavy traffic routes, pollution proxy, and by the socioeconomic situation, measured by the Social Development Index. Analyzes stratified by socioeconomic levels were also carried out, given by the tertiles of the Social Development Index. RESULTS Among the greener sectors, with a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index above the third quartile, the reduction in mortality due to ischemic heart disease was 6.7% (95%CI 3.5-9.8) and cerebrovascular was 4.7% (95%CI 1.2-8.0). In the stratified analysis, the protective effect of green spaces on ischemic heart disease mortality was observed among the greenest sectors of all strata, and it was higher for those with a lower socioeconomic level (8.6%, 95%CI 1.8-15.0). In the case of mortality due to cerebrovascular diseases, the protective effect was verified only for the greenest sectors of the lowest socioeconomic level (9.6%, 95%CI 2.3-16.5). CONCLUSIONS Mortality rates for ischemic heart and cerebrovascular diseases are inversely associated with exposure to green spaces when controlling socioeconomic status and air pollution. The protective effect of green spaces is greater among the tracts of lower socioeconomic level.