Seroepidemiology and model-based prediction of SARS-CoV-2 in Ethiopia: longitudinal cohort study among front-line hospital workers and communities.

BACKGROUND: Over 1 year since the first reported case, the true COVID-19 burden in Ethiopia remains unknown due to insufficient surveillance. We aimed to investigate the seroepidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 among front-line hospital workers and communities in Ethiopia. METHODS: We did a population-based, longitudinal cohort study at two tertiary teaching hospitals involving hospital workers, rural residents, and urban communities in Jimma and Addis Ababa. Hospital workers were recruited at both hospitals, and community participants were recruited by convenience sampling including urban metropolitan settings, urban and semi-urban settings, and rural communities. Participants were eligible if they were aged 18 years or older, had provided written informed consent, and were willing to provide blood samples by venepuncture. Only one participant per household was recruited. Serology was done with Elecsys anti-SARS-CoV-2 anti-nucleocapsid assay in three consecutive rounds, with a mean interval of 6 weeks between tests, to obtain seroprevalence and incidence estimates within the cohorts. FINDINGS: Between Aug 5, 2020, and April 10, 2021, we did three survey rounds with a total of 1104 hospital workers and 1229 community residents participating. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among hospital workers increased strongly during the study period: in Addis Ababa, it increased from 10·9% (95% credible interval [CrI] 8·3-13·8) in August, 2020, to 53·7% (44·8-62·5) in February, 2021, with an incidence rate of 2223 per 100 000 person-weeks (95% CI 1785-2696); in Jimma Town, it increased from 30·8% (95% CrI 26·9-34·8) in November, 2020, to 56·1% (51·1-61·1) in February, 2021, with an incidence rate of 3810 per 100 000 person-weeks (95% CI 3149-4540). Among urban communities, an almost 40% increase in seroprevalence was observed in early 2021, with incidence rates of 1622 per 100 000 person-weeks (1004-2429) in Jimma Town and 4646 per 100 000 person-weeks (2797-7255) in Addis Ababa. Seroprevalence in rural communities increased from 18·0% (95% CrI 13·5-23·2) in November, 2020, to 31·0% (22·3-40·3) in March, 2021. INTERPRETATION: SARS-CoV-2 spread in Ethiopia has been highly dynamic among hospital worker and urban communities. We can speculate that the greatest wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections is currently evolving in rural Ethiopia, and thus requires focused attention regarding health-care burden and disease prevention. FUNDING: Bavarian State Ministry of Sciences, Research, and the Arts; Germany Ministry of Education and Research; EU Horizon 2020 programme; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft; and Volkswagenstiftung.

Serotype and molecular diversity of nasopharyngeal Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates from children before and after vaccination with the ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Streptococcus pneumoniae is a major human pathogen, and nasopharyngeal colonization is the first step for transmission and pathogenesis of pneumococcal diseases. Ethiopia introduced the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) in October 2011. Here we studied nasopharyngeal carriage rates of pneumococci in children and analyzed the serotype and genetic diversity of pneumococcal isolates before first dose and after completion of the vaccine. METHOD: A longitudinal study was conducted from February 2013 to November 2016. Totally 789 infants were enrolled at the age of 6 weeks before first dose of PCV10 vaccination, 206 were re-sampled at the age of 9 months, and 201 at 2 years of age after the final dose of PCV10 at the age of 14 weeks. One hundred sixteen children were followed during all the three sampling periods. A total of 422 nasopharyngeal isolates were serotyped using gel diffusion and the Quellung reaction, 325 were typed with pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), and 12 were selected for multi locus sequence typing (MLST). RESULTS: Pneumococcal carriage rates at the age of 6 weeks, 9 months and 2 years of age were 26.6% (210/789), 56.8% (117/206) and 48.3% (97/201), respectively. Out of 116 children none of them carried the same strain during the three period and the carriage rate at the age of 6 weeks, 9 months and 2 years were 32.7% (38/116), 59.% (69/116) and 49.1% (57/116) respectively. Totally 59 pneumococcal serotypes were identified among 422 isolates. Serotype 6A (5.0%) dominated followed by 34 (4.5%), 10A (4.0%), 11A (4.0%), 19F (3.8%), 15B (3.8%), 23F (3.6%), and 15A (3.6%). The proportion of non-PCV10 serotypes among the isolates recovered at 6 weeks, 9 months and 2 years was 79.4, 88.9 and 89.7% respectively. Molecular typing of 325 isolates collected at 6 weeks and 9 months of age showed a high genetic diversity. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the presence of very diverse serotypes in Ethiopia where non-vaccine serotypes were predominant. Completion of the PCV10 schedule was associated with an approximately 50% reduction of vaccine-type carriage and increase of non-vaccine types. PCV13 would potentially reduce vaccine-type carriage by further 10%.