Lipoprotein(a) and the risk of recurrent coronary heart disease: the Dubbo Study.

OBJECTIVE: Elevated Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] has not been firmly established as a risk factor for recurrent coronary heart disease (CHD). The present analysis explored this relationship in senior citizens. METHODS: This was a longitudinal study in 607 subjects, all with prevalent CHD, mean age 71 years, followed for 16 years. Baseline examinations of lipids and other CHD risk factors were conducted in 1988-89 in Dubbo, Australia. The independent contribution of Lp(a) to a further CHD event was examined in proportional hazards regression models. RESULTS: There were 399 incident CHD cases. Median Lp(a) in CHD cases was 130 mg/L (Interquartile range 60-315) and in non-cases 105 mg/L (45-250) (p < .07, U-Test). 26% of CHD cases and 19% of non-cases had Lp(a) 300 + mg/L; 18% of CHD cases and 8% of non-cases had Lp(a) 500 + mg/L. Lp(a) in Quintile 5 of its distribution (355 + mg/L), using Lp(a) Quintile 1 (<50mg/L) as reference, significantly predicted recurrent CHD with Hazard Ratio 1.53 (95% CI 1.11-2.11, p = .01). Prediction was independent of other risk factors. Lp(a) 500 + mg/L versus lower, significantly predicted recurrent CHD with Hazard Ratio 1.59 (1.16-2.17, p < .01). Prediction was similarly significant for Lp(a) 300 + mg/L versus lower, with Hazard Ratio 1.37 (1.09-1.73, p < .01). CONCLUSION: Elevated Lp(a) is an independent and significant predictor of recurrent CHD in senior citizens. Upper reference Lp(a) levels of 500 mg/L (≈125nmol/L) or 300 mg/L (≈75nmol/L) both appear to be appropriate. The clinical benefit of therapy to reduce elevated Lp(a) remains to be confirmed.

Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)], a type of "bad cholesterol", has been shown to be an important cause of coronary artery disease (CAD). In the long-term Dubbo Study of senior citizens in Australia, Professor Simons' team have previously shown that citizens with Lp(a) readings greater than 276 mg/L had a 46% greater chance of a first CAD problem (e.g. a heart attack) compared with those having much lower readings. This new study asked whether Lp(a) might also increase the chance of a second or repeat episode of CAD in citizens who had already manifested CAD. In 607 senior citizens with previous CAD followed for 16 years, those with Lp(a) readings greater than 355 mg/L had a 53% greater chance of manifesting another CAD problem compared with those having much lower readings. The team concluded that Lp(a) remains an important cause of repeat CAD in senior citizens. The benefit of emerging treatments to lower Lp(a) remains to be confirmed in ongoing research.

Gaps in the Care of Familial Hypercholesterolaemia in Australia: First Report From the National Registry.

BACKGROUND: Familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) is under-diagnosed and under-treated worldwide, including Australia. National registries play a key role in identifying patients with FH, understanding gaps in care and advancing the science of FH to improve care for these patients. METHODS: The FH Australasia Network has established a national web-based registry to raise awareness of the condition, facilitate service planning and inform best practice and care services in Australia. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 1,528 FH adults enrolled in the registry from 28 lipid clinics. RESULTS: The mean age at enrolment was 53.4±15.1 years, 50.5% were male and 54.3% had undergone FH genetic testing, of which 61.8% had a pathogenic FH-causing gene variant. Only 14.0% of the cohort were family members identified through cascade testing. Coronary artery disease (CAD) was reported in 28.0% of patients (age of onset 49.0±10.5 years) and 64.9% had at least one modifiable cardiovascular risk factor. The mean untreated LDL-cholesterol was 7.4±2.5 mmol/L. 80.8% of patients were on lipid-lowering therapy with a mean treated LDL-cholesterol of 3.3±1.7 mmol/L. Among patients receiving lipid-lowering therapies, 25.6% achieved an LDL-cholesterol target of <2.5 mmol/L without CAD or <1.8 mmol/L with CAD. CONCLUSION: Patients in the national FH registry are detected later in life, have a high burden of CAD and risk factors, and do not achieve guideline-recommended LDL-cholesterol targets. Genetic and cascade testing are under-utilised. These deficiencies in care need to be addressed as a public health priority.

Association Between Depressive Symptoms and Incident Cardiovascular Diseases.

Importance: It is uncertain whether depressive symptoms are independently associated with subsequent risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Objective: To characterize the association between depressive symptoms and CVD incidence across the spectrum of lower mood. Design, Setting, and Participants: A pooled analysis of individual-participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC; 162 036 participants; 21 cohorts; baseline surveys, 1960-2008; latest follow-up, March 2020) and the UK Biobank (401 219 participants; baseline surveys, 2006-2010; latest follow-up, March 2020). Eligible participants had information about self-reported depressive symptoms and no CVD history at baseline. Exposures: Depressive symptoms were recorded using validated instruments. ERFC scores were harmonized across studies to a scale representative of the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CES-D) scale (range, 0-60; ≥16 indicates possible depressive disorder). The UK Biobank recorded the 2-item Patient Health Questionnaire 2 (PHQ-2; range, 0-6; ≥3 indicates possible depressive disorder). Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were incident fatal or nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and CVD (composite of the 2). Hazard ratios (HRs) per 1-SD higher log CES-D or PHQ-2 adjusted for age, sex, smoking, and diabetes were reported. Results: Among 162 036 participants from the ERFC (73%, women; mean age at baseline, 63 years [SD, 9 years]), 5078 CHD and 3932 stroke events were recorded (median follow-up, 9.5 years). Associations with CHD, stroke, and CVD were log linear. The HR per 1-SD higher depression score for CHD was 1.07 (95% CI, 1.03-1.11); stroke, 1.05 (95% CI, 1.01-1.10); and CVD, 1.06 (95% CI, 1.04-1.08). The corresponding incidence rates per 10 000 person-years of follow-up in the highest vs the lowest quintile of CES-D score (geometric mean CES-D score, 19 vs 1) were 36.3 vs 29.0 for CHD events, 28.0 vs 24.7 for stroke events, and 62.8 vs 53.5 for CVD events. Among 401 219 participants from the UK Biobank (55% were women, mean age at baseline, 56 years [SD, 8 years]), 4607 CHD and 3253 stroke events were recorded (median follow-up, 8.1 years). The HR per 1-SD higher depression score for CHD was 1.11 (95% CI, 1.08-1.14); stroke, 1.10 (95% CI, 1.06-1.14); and CVD, 1.10 (95% CI, 1.08-1.13). The corresponding incidence rates per 10 000 person-years of follow-up among individuals with PHQ-2 scores of 4 or higher vs 0 were 20.9 vs 14.2 for CHD events, 15.3 vs 10.2 for stroke events, and 36.2 vs 24.5 for CVD events. The magnitude and statistical significance of the HRs were not materially changed after adjustment for additional risk factors. Conclusions and Relevance: In a pooled analysis of 563 255 participants in 22 cohorts, baseline depressive symptoms were associated with CVD incidence, including at symptom levels lower than the threshold indicative of a depressive disorder. However, the magnitude of associations was modest.

Gender differences in the impact of metabolic syndrome components on mortality in older people: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The influence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) on mortality may be influenced by age- and gender-related changes affecting the impact of individual MetS components. We investigated gender differences in the association between MetS components and mortality in community-dwelling older adults. METHODS AND RESULTS: Prospective studies were identified through a systematic literature review up to June 2019. Random-effect meta-analyses were run to estimate the pooled relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality associated with the presence of MetS components (abdominal obesity, high triglycerides, low HDL cholesterol, high fasting glycemia, and high blood pressure) in older men and women. Meta-analyses considering all-cause (103,859 individuals, 48,830 men, 55,029 women; 10 studies) and CV mortality (94,965 individuals, 44,699 men, 50,266 women; 8 studies) did not reveal any significant association for abdominal obesity and high triglycerides in either gender. Low HDL was associated with increased all-cause (RR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.02-1.32) and CV mortality (RR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.03-1.74) among women, while weaker results were found for men. High fasting glycemia was associated with higher all-cause mortality in older women (RR = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.22-1.50) more than in older men (RR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.13-1.30), and CV mortality only in the former (RR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.04-1.78). Elevated blood pressure was associated with increased all-cause mortality (RR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03-1.32) and showed marginal significant results for CV death only among women. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of MetS components on mortality in older people present some gender differences, with low HDL cholesterol, hyperglycemia, and elevated blood pressure being more strongly associated to all-cause and CV mortality in women.

Application of non-HDL cholesterol for population-based cardiovascular risk stratification: results from the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The relevance of blood lipid concentrations to long-term incidence of cardiovascular disease and the relevance of lipid-lowering therapy for cardiovascular disease outcomes is unclear. We investigated the cardiovascular disease risk associated with the full spectrum of bloodstream non-HDL cholesterol concentrations. We also created an easy-to-use tool to estimate the long-term probabilities for a cardiovascular disease event associated with non-HDL cholesterol and modelled its risk reduction by lipid-lowering treatment. METHODS: In this risk-evaluation and risk-modelling study, we used Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium data from 19 countries across Europe, Australia, and North America. Individuals without prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline and with robust available data on cardiovascular disease outcomes were included. The primary composite endpoint of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was defined as the occurrence of the coronary heart disease event or ischaemic stroke. Sex-specific multivariable analyses were computed using non-HDL cholesterol categories according to the European guideline thresholds, adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and classical modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. In a derivation and validation design, we created a tool to estimate the probabilities of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, dependent on age, sex, and risk factors, and the associated modelled risk reduction, assuming a 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol. FINDINGS: Of the 524 444 individuals in the 44 cohorts in the Consortium database, we identified 398 846 individuals belonging to 38 cohorts (184 055 [48·7%] women; median age 51·0 years [IQR 40·7-59·7]). 199 415 individuals were included in the derivation cohort (91 786 [48·4%] women) and 199 431 (92 269 [49·1%] women) in the validation cohort. During a maximum follow-up of 43·6 years (median 13·5 years, IQR 7·0-20·1), 54 542 cardiovascular endpoints occurred. Incidence curve analyses showed progressively higher 30-year cardiovascular disease event-rates for increasing non-HDL cholesterol categories (from 7·7% for non-HDL cholesterol <2·6 mmol/L to 33·7% for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 12·8% to 43·6% in men; p<0·0001). Multivariable adjusted Cox models with non-HDL cholesterol lower than 2·6 mmol/L as reference showed an increase in the association between non-HDL cholesterol concentration and cardiovascular disease for both sexes (from hazard ratio 1·1, 95% CI 1·0-1·3 for non-HDL cholesterol 2·6 to <3·7 mmol/L to 1·9, 1·6-2·2 for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 1·1, 1·0-1·3 to 2·3, 2·0-2·5 in men). The derived tool allowed the estimation of cardiovascular disease event probabilities specific for non-HDL cholesterol with high comparability between the derivation and validation cohorts as reflected by smooth calibration curves analyses and a root mean square error lower than 1% for the estimated probabilities of cardiovascular disease. A 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol concentrations was associated with reduced risk of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, and this risk reduction was greater the earlier cholesterol concentrations were reduced. INTERPRETATION: Non-HDL cholesterol concentrations in blood are strongly associated with long-term risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We provide a simple tool for individual long-term risk assessment and the potential benefit of early lipid-lowering intervention. These data could be useful for physician-patient communication about primary prevention strategies. FUNDING: EU Framework Programme, UK Medical Research Council, and German Centre for Cardiovascular Research.

An updated review of lipid-modifying therapy.

Statin drugs reduce low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol (LDL-C) and cardiovascular risk. Ezetimibe may be used to supplement statin therapy, or used alone in cases of statin intolerance. Statin-associated side effects do occur, especially muscle symptoms and new onset diabetes, but they do not detract from the benefits of statin therapy. Inhibitors of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) reduce LDL-C and cardiovascular risk. Evolocumab is subsidised in Australia for patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia when LDL-C is not adequately controlled with maximum doses of statin or ezetimibe or when statin therapy is contraindicated. Fenofibrate reduces triglycerides and cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes when triglycerides are elevated and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) is low. A role for dietary omega-3 fatty acids and esters in reducing cardiovascular risk remains controversial. All cases of secondary cardiovascular disease prevention merit intensive lipid therapy, unless a contraindication exists. Lipid therapy is justified in cases of primary prevention when absolute risk is high, especially when lipids are highly elevated or when multiple risk factors are present. Clinical management requires a focus on the predominant lipid disorder present, namely hypercholesterolaemia, hypertriglyceridaemia or combined hyperlipidaemia. There is an ongoing problem of poor long term persistence on lipid therapy, as well as reduced awareness by practitioners of poor risk factor control.

Cardiovascular Risk Factors Associated With Venous Thromboembolism.

Importance: It is uncertain to what extent established cardiovascular risk factors are associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE). Objective: To estimate the associations of major cardiovascular risk factors with VTE, ie, deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study included individual participant data mostly from essentially population-based cohort studies from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC; 731 728 participants; 75 cohorts; years of baseline surveys, February 1960 to June 2008; latest date of follow-up, December 2015) and the UK Biobank (421 537 participants; years of baseline surveys, March 2006 to September 2010; latest date of follow-up, February 2016). Participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline were included. Data were analyzed from June 2017 to September 2018. Exposures: A panel of several established cardiovascular risk factors. Main Outcomes and Measures: Hazard ratios (HRs) per 1-SD higher usual risk factor levels (or presence/absence). Incident fatal outcomes in ERFC (VTE, 1041; coronary heart disease [CHD], 25 131) and incident fatal/nonfatal outcomes in UK Biobank (VTE, 2321; CHD, 3385). Hazard ratios were adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, diabetes, and body mass index (BMI). Results: Of the 731 728 participants from the ERFC, 403 396 (55.1%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the survey was 51.9 (9.0) years; of the 421 537 participants from the UK Biobank, 233 699 (55.4%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the survey was 56.4 (8.1) years. Risk factors for VTE included older age (ERFC: HR per decade, 2.67; 95% CI, 2.45-2.91; UK Biobank: HR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.71-1.92), current smoking (ERFC: HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.20-1.58; UK Biobank: HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.08-1.40), and BMI (ERFC: HR per 1-SD higher BMI, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.35-1.50; UK Biobank: HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.32-1.41). For these factors, there were similar HRs for pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis in UK Biobank (except adiposity was more strongly associated with pulmonary embolism) and similar HRs for unprovoked vs provoked VTE. Apart from adiposity, these risk factors were less strongly associated with VTE than CHD. There were inconsistent associations of VTEs with diabetes and blood pressure across ERFC and UK Biobank, and there was limited ability to study lipid and inflammation markers. Conclusions and Relevance: Older age, smoking, and adiposity were consistently associated with higher VTE risk.

Risk thresholds for alcohol consumption: combined analysis of individual-participant data for 599 912 current drinkers in 83 prospective studies.

BACKGROUND: Low-risk limits recommended for alcohol consumption vary substantially across different national guidelines. To define thresholds associated with lowest risk for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease, we studied individual-participant data from 599 912 current drinkers without previous cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We did a combined analysis of individual-participant data from three large-scale data sources in 19 high-income countries (the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD, and the UK Biobank). We characterised dose-response associations and calculated hazard ratios (HRs) per 100 g per week of alcohol (12·5 units per week) across 83 prospective studies, adjusting at least for study or centre, age, sex, smoking, and diabetes. To be eligible for the analysis, participants had to have information recorded about their alcohol consumption amount and status (ie, non-drinker vs current drinker), plus age, sex, history of diabetes and smoking status, at least 1 year of follow-up after baseline, and no baseline history of cardiovascular disease. The main analyses focused on current drinkers, whose baseline alcohol consumption was categorised into eight predefined groups according to the amount in grams consumed per week. We assessed alcohol consumption in relation to all-cause mortality, total cardiovascular disease, and several cardiovascular disease subtypes. We corrected HRs for estimated long-term variability in alcohol consumption using 152 640 serial alcohol assessments obtained some years apart (median interval 5·6 years [5th-95th percentile 1·04-13·5]) from 71 011 participants from 37 studies. FINDINGS: In the 599 912 current drinkers included in the analysis, we recorded 40 310 deaths and 39 018 incident cardiovascular disease events during 5·4 million person-years of follow-up. For all-cause mortality, we recorded a positive and curvilinear association with the level of alcohol consumption, with the minimum mortality risk around or below 100 g per week. Alcohol consumption was roughly linearly associated with a higher risk of stroke (HR per 100 g per week higher consumption 1·14, 95% CI, 1·10-1·17), coronary disease excluding myocardial infarction (1·06, 1·00-1·11), heart failure (1·09, 1·03-1·15), fatal hypertensive disease (1·24, 1·15-1·33); and fatal aortic aneurysm (1·15, 1·03-1·28). By contrast, increased alcohol consumption was log-linearly associated with a lower risk of myocardial infarction (HR 0·94, 0·91-0·97). In comparison to those who reported drinking >0-≤100 g per week, those who reported drinking >100-≤200 g per week, >200-≤350 g per week, or >350 g per week had lower life expectancy at age 40 years of approximately 6 months, 1-2 years, or 4-5 years, respectively. INTERPRETATION: In current drinkers of alcohol in high-income countries, the threshold for lowest risk of all-cause mortality was about 100 g/week. For cardiovascular disease subtypes other than myocardial infarction, there were no clear risk thresholds below which lower alcohol consumption stopped being associated with lower disease risk. These data support limits for alcohol consumption that are lower than those recommended in most current guidelines. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, European Union Framework 7, and European Research Council.

Occupational exposure to indoor air pollution among bakery workers in Ethiopia; A comparison of electric and biomass cookstoves.

The indoor air pollution (IAP) produced by the domestic combustion of solid fuels is responsible for up to 4 million deaths annually, especially among low and middle income countries. Occupational exposure within the food preparation industries of these nations remains underexplored. We investigated occupational exposure to the IAP produced during the commercial production of injera, a staple of the Ethiopian diet, from bakeries in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Measurements of PM2.5, black carbon (via the proxy measure PM2.5 absorbance) and CO were collected from 30 bakeries and their employees for an average of 4-h per working day. Measurements were compared between bakeries using biomass and electric cookstoves. Further, the respiratory health data of 35 bakery employees were collected by interview-based questionnaire. Personal exposure to PM2.5 from biomass cookstoves was double that of electric cookstoves (430 µg/m3 vs. 216 µg/m3), black carbon exposure was four times higher among biomass users (67 × 10-5m-1 vs. 15 × 10-5m-1), and CO exposure was twenty times higher among biomass users (22 ppm vs. 1 ppm). Mixed effect models indicated that the number of stoves in use and additional solid fuel usage (e.g. coffee brewing) also contributed to exposure levels. These findings indicate that the use of biomass powered cookstoves during commercial injera production significantly contributes to IAP and self-reported respiratory symptoms. As injera is the staple foodstuff of Ethiopia, a widespread conversion to electric cookstoves is likely to have a significant impact. However, as high levels of IAP were also observed within the electric bakeries, further identification of pollution sources is required.

LDL-cholesterol Predicts a First CHD Event in Senior Citizens, Especially So in Those With Elevated Lipoprotein(a): Dubbo Study of the Elderly.

OBJECTIVE: The analysis was designed to explore the combined effects of LDL-cholesterol and lipoprotein(a) (Lp(a)) in predicting incident coronary heart disease (CHD) in senior citizens without prior CHD. METHODS: This is a prospective cohort study in Dubbo NSW which has followed 2805 men and women 60 years and older for 16 years since 1988-1989. Subjects with prior CHD (n=607) were excluded from this analysis. Incident CHD events were identified by hospital record linkage. The contributions of LDL and Lp(a) to CHD events and their combined effects were evaluated in proportional hazards regression models. RESULTS: There were 689 CHD events over 16 years in a cohort of 2198 men and women without prior CHD. LDL-cholesterol (corrected for cholesterol content of Lp(a)) and Lp(a) modelled in quartile categories each independently predicted CHD, but exclusively in Quartile 4 (Q4) for each parameter. Using the combination of LDL Q1 and Lp(a) Q1 as a reference group, LDL Q4 (>4.90mmol/L) most clearly predicted CHD in combination with Lp(a) Q4 (>276mg/L), hazard ratio 1.95 (95%CI 1.31-2.90). CONCLUSION: The present findings may have important practical implications in clinical management. If Lp(a) is assessed in senior citizens without prior CHD and found to be genuinely low, elevated LDL-cholesterol may not require active intervention.

Long-term persistence with single-pill, fixed-dose combination therapy versus two pills of amlodipine and perindopril for hypertension: Australian experience.

OBJECTIVE: To study treatment persistence and mortality using a single-pill, fixed-dose combination tablet compared with a two-pill combination for hypertension. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We analyzed Australian Pharmaceutical Benefit Scheme records 2011-2014 in a 10% random sample of concessional patients prescribed concomitant amlodipine and perindopril - either as a single-pill, fixed-dose combination tablet (n = 9340) or as two-pill combination therapy (n = 3093). Main outcome measures were: (a) proportions failing to continue amlodipine + perindopril over time, (b) proportions failing to continue any subsequent calcium channel and angiotensin inhibition therapy over time and (c) proportions dying. RESULTS: After 12 months, 34% of single-pill and 57% of two-pill users discontinued amlodipine + perindopril, median persistence time 42 months versus 7 months; 28% and 47% respectively discontinued any calcium channel-angiotensin inhibition therapy. After 48 months, 8% of single-pill and 18% of two-pill users had died. In a multivariate model adjusted for age, gender, duration and intensity of prior hypertension therapy, initial dose of amlodipine and perindopril, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and complexity of care, the hazard ratio for risk of discontinuation over 42 months in the two-pill versus single-pill amlodipine + perindopril group was 1.94 (95% CI 1.83-2.06). The hazard ratio for discontinuation in two-pill versus single-pill users of any calcium channel-angiotensin inhibition therapy was 1.86 (1.74-1.99). The adjusted hazard ratio for risk of death over 48 months was 1.83 (1.55-2.16), but the mortality outcome may be an overestimate due to residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS: Use of a single-pill, fixed-dose combination in hypertension is associated with superior persistence and reduced mortality compared with use of two pills, suggesting a higher priority for the use of fixed-dose combinations.

Medium- to long-term persistence with non-vitamin-K oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation: Australian experience.

OBJECTIVE: Long-term anticoagulant therapy with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) is essential to prevent thromboembolic complications, especially ischemic stroke. This study examines medium-term persistence in AF patients using a non-vitamin-K antagonist oral anticoagulant drug (NOAC). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We assessed national Pharmaceutical Benefit Scheme records December 2013 through September 2016 for initial prescription of a NOAC in a 10% random sample of concessional patients. Key outcome measures were: (a) proportions filling first repeat prescription, (b) proportions persisting with NOAC over 12 and 30 months and (c) proportions switching to another NOAC or warfarin. RESULTS: A total of 8656 patients with AF initiated a NOAC (3352 apixaban, 1340 dabigatran, 3964 rivaroxaban). Mean age was 77 years, 53% male; 91% collected the first repeat prescription for any NOAC, 70% and 57% collected any NOAC or subsequent warfarin prescription over 12 months and 30 months respectively; 8.9% had switched to warfarin. The proportions switching from apixaban, dabigatran and rivaroxaban to a different NOAC were 14%, 31% and 17% respectively. In a regression model adjusting for age, gender and comorbidity, apixaban-initiated patients over 30 months were 28% more likely to persist with any anticoagulant therapy compared with dabigatran-initiated patients (hazard ratio [95% CI] 1.28 [1.16-1.42]) and 15% more likely to persist compared with rivaroxaban-initiated (1.15 [1.06-1.24]). Rivaroxaban-initiated patients were 12% more likely to persist compared with dabigatran-initiated patients (1.12 [1.02-1.24]). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term persistence with anticoagulation in patients with AF remains a concern, even with NOACs. Patients initiated to apixaban appear to experience better medium-term persistence compared with rivaroxaban or dabigatran.

Development of an Australian cardiovascular disease mortality risk score using multiple imputation and recalibration from national statistics.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and recalibrate an Australian 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk score to produce contemporary predictions of risk. METHODS: Data were pooled from six Australian cohort studies (n = 54,829), with baseline data collected between 1989 and 2003. Participants included were aged 40-74 years and free of CVD at baseline. Variables were harmonised across studies and missing data were imputed using multiple imputation. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the risk of CVD mortality associated with factors mutually independently predictive (p < 0.05) and a 5-year risk prediction algorithm was constructed. This algorithm was recalibrated to reflect contemporary national levels of CVD mortality and risk factors using national statistics. RESULTS: Over a mean 16.6 years follow-up, 1375 participants in the six studies died from CVD. The prediction model included age, sex, smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC), a social deprivation score, estimated glomerular filtration rate and its square and interactions of sex with diabetes, HDLC and deprivation score, and of age with systolic blood pressure and smoking. This model discriminated well when applied to a Scottish study population (c-statistic (95% confidence interval): 0.751 (0.709, 0.793)). Recalibration generally increased estimated risks, but well below those predicted by the European SCORE models. CONCLUSIONS: The resulting risk score, which includes markers of both chronic kidney disease and socioeconomic deprivation, is the first CVD mortality risk prediction tool for Australia to be derived using Australian data. The primary model, and the method of recalibration, is applicable elsewhere.

Improved persistence with non-vitamin-K oral anticoagulants compared with warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation: recent Australian experience.

OBJECTIVE: Long-term anticoagulant therapy in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) is essential to prevent thromboembolic complications, especially ischemic stroke, but treatment persistence with warfarin is poor. This study examines Australian nationwide persistence in AF patients using a non-vitamin-K oral anticoagulant (NOAC) drug. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We assessed national Pharmaceutical Benefit Scheme records November-December 2013 through March 2015 for prescription of NOAC drugs in a 10% random sample of long-term concession card holders. An historical comparison was made with patients prescribed warfarin in 2008. Key outcome measures were (i) the proportion not filling first repeat prescription and (ii) discontinuation within 12 months. RESULTS: A total of 1471 patients with AF were new users of a NOAC drug (228 apixaban, 645 dabigatran, 598 rivaroxaban) and 1348 were new users of warfarin. Mean age on a NOAC was 76 years (58% male), on warfarin 74 years (54% male). Only 9% (95% CI 7-10) failed to collect the first repeat prescription on a NOAC, 30% (27-32) discontinued within 12 months; corresponding proportions on warfarin were 14% (12-16) and 62% (60-65). In a regression model adjusted for age, gender, heart failure, hypertension and diabetes, warfarin-treated patients were 2.5 times more likely to discontinue over 12 months than those who were NOAC treated (hazard ratio =2.47 [95% CI 2.19-2.79]). CONCLUSIONS: Persistence with NOAC drugs in patients with AF appears to be superior to warfarin. If continued long-term, this alone will be of clinical importance in the prevention of stroke and death.

Hypertension, antihypertensive treatment and cancer incidence and mortality: a pooled collaborative analysis of 12 Australian and New Zealand cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies examining associations between hypertension and cancer are inconsistent. We explored the association of hypertension, graded hypertension and antihypertensive treatment with cancer incidence and mortality. METHOD: Eighty-six thousand five hundred and ninety-three participants from the Australian and New Zealand Diabetes and Cancer Collaboration were linked to the National Death Index and Australian Cancer Database. Cox proportional hazards models estimated hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for the association of treated and untreated hypertension with cancer incidence and mortality. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 15.1 years, 12 070 incident and 4350 fatal cancers were identified. Untreated and treated hypertension, compared with normotension, were associated with an increased risk for cancer incidence [hazard ratio 1.06, 95% CI (1.00-1.11) and 1.09 (1.02-1.16) respectively], and cancer mortality (1.07, 0.98-1.18) and (1.15, 1.03-1.28), respectively. When compared with untreated hypertension, treated hypertension did not have a significantly greater risk for cancer incidence (1.03, 0.97-1.10) or mortality (1.07, 0.97-1.19). A significant dose-response relationship was observed between graded hypertension and cancer incidence and mortality; Ptrend = 0.053 and Ptrend = 0.001, respectively. When stratified by treatment status, these relationships remained significant in untreated, but not in treated, hypertension. CONCLUSION: Hypertension, both treated and untreated, is associated with a modest increased risk for cancer incidence and mortality. Similar risks in treated and untreated hypertension suggest that the increased cancer risk is not explained by the use of antihypertensive treatment.

Association of Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity With Mortality.

IMPORTANCE: The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing. OBJECTIVE: To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689,300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128,843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499,808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006-2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths). Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates. EXPOSURES: A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy. RESULTS: In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95% CI, 2.0-2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95% CI, 3.3-4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95% CI, 3.5-4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95% CI, 3.1-4.0) in those with both stroke and MI, and 6.9 (95% CI, 5.7-8.3) in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were similar to those from the more recently recruited UK Biobank. The HRs were little changed after further adjustment for markers of established intermediate pathways (eg, levels of lipids and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, diet). At the age of 60 years, a history of any 2 of these conditions was associated with 12 years of reduced life expectancy and a history of all 3 of these conditions was associated with 15 years of reduced life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Mortality associated with a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI was similar for each condition. Because any combination of these conditions was associated with multiplicative mortality risk, life expectancy was substantially lower in people with multimorbidity.

Comparison of anthropometric measures as predictors of cancer incidence: A pooled collaborative analysis of 11 Australian cohorts.

Obesity is a risk factor for cancer. However, it is not known if general adiposity, as measured by body mass index (BMI) or central adiposity [e.g., waist circumference (WC)] have stronger associations with cancer, or which anthropometric measure best predicts cancer risk. We included 79,458 men and women from the Australian and New Zealand Diabetes and Cancer Collaboration with complete data on anthropometry [BMI, WC, Hip Circumference (HC), WHR, waist to height ratio (WtHR), A Body Shape Index (ABSI)], linked to the Australian Cancer Database. Cox proportional hazards models assessed the association between each anthropometric marker, per standard deviation and the risk of overall, colorectal, post-menopausal (PM) breast, prostate and obesity-related cancers. We assessed the discriminative ability of models using Harrell's c-statistic. All anthropometric markers were associated with overall, colorectal and obesity-related cancers. BMI, WC and HC were associated with PM breast cancer and no significant associations were seen for prostate cancer. Strongest associations were observed for WC across all outcomes, excluding PM breast cancer for which HC was strongest. WC had greater discrimination compared to BMI for overall and colorectal cancer in men and women with c-statistics ranging from 0.70 to 0.71. We show all anthropometric measures are associated with the overall, colorectal, PM breast and obesity-related cancer in men and women, but not prostate cancer. WC discriminated marginally better than BMI. However, all anthropometric measures were similarly moderately predictive of cancer risk. We do not recommend one anthropometric marker over another for assessing an individuals' risk of cancer.

Prediction of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality at 10 years in the hypertensive aged population.

BACKGROUND: We have previously developed a score for predicting cardiovascular events in the intermediate term in an elderly hypertensive population. In this study, we aimed to extend this work to predict 10-year cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in the hypertensive aged population. METHODS: Ten-year follow-up data of 5,378 hypertensive participants in the Second Australian National Blood Pressure study who were aged 65-84 years at baseline (1995-2001) and without prior cardiovascular events were analyzed. By using bootstrap resampling variable selection methods and comparing the Akaike and Bayesian information criterion and C-indices of the potential models, optimal and parsimonious multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict 10-year cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. The models were validated using bootstrap validation method internally and using the Dubbo Study dataset externally. RESULTS: The final model for cardiovascular mortality included detrimental (age, smoking, diabetes, waist-hip ratio, and disadvantaged socioeconomic status) and protective factors (female sex, alcohol consumption, and physical activity). The final model for all-cause mortality also included detrimental (age, smoking, random blood glucose, and disadvantaged socioeconomic status) and protective factors (female sex, alcohol consumption, body mass index, and statin use). Blood pressure did not appear in either model in this patient group. The C-statistics for internal validation were 0.707 (cardiovascular mortality) and 0.678 (all-cause mortality), and for external validation were 0.729 (cardiovascular mortality) and 0.772 (all-cause mortality). CONCLUSIONS: These algorithms allow reliable estimation of 10-year risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality for hypertensive aged individuals.

Are high coronary risk patients missing out on lipid-lowering drugs in Australia?

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether high coronary risk patients in Australia, where use of lipid-lowering drugs (LLD) is very high by international standards, are receiving LLD. DESIGN, SETTING AND PATIENTS: Assessment of Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme pharmacy payment claim records between January 2006 and May 2013 for a 10% random sample of Australian concession card holders. Co-prescriptions were used as a surrogate for high coronary risk groups - coronary heart disease (CHD): antiplatelet drugs (not including solo aspirin) and anti-anginal drugs; diabetes: all standard drugs; hypertension: all standard drugs (not including solo diuretics). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Proportions of patients in high-risk groups not receiving LLD (statins, fibrates or ezetimibe). RESULTS: The database yielded information on 276,212 patients defined as being at high coronary risk (mean age, 66.1 [SD, 14.8] years; 44% male). Of this group, 115,477 patients (42%) had not received any LLD during the study period. For patients in the risk group for CHD in combination with diabetes and hypertension, only 8% (1111/14,257) were not receiving LLD. Across all risk groups, the proportions not receiving LLD were generally highest in those aged ≥ 81 years and, to a lesser extent, < 41 years, and were lowest in those aged 51-70 years. CONCLUSION: A large proportion of concession card holders at high coronary risk, especially those in middle age with CHD and multiple risk factors, are being appropriately prescribed LLD in Australia.

Seasonality of cardiovascular risk factors: an analysis including over 230†000 participants in 15 countries.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the seasonality of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) in a large set of population-based studies. METHODS: Cross-sectional data from 24 population-based studies from 15 countries, with a total sample size of 237 979 subjects. CVRFs included Body Mass Index (BMI) and waist circumference; systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure; total, high (HDL) and low (LDL) density lipoprotein cholesterol; triglycerides and glucose levels. Within each study, all data were adjusted for age, gender and current smoking. For blood pressure, lipids and glucose levels, further adjustments on BMI and drug treatment were performed. RESULTS: In the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, CVRFs levels tended to be higher in winter and lower in summer months. These patterns were observed for most studies. In the Northern Hemisphere, the estimated seasonal variations were 0.26 kg/m(2) for BMI, 0.6 cm for waist circumference, 2.9 mm Hg for SBP, 1.4 mm Hg for DBP, 0.02 mmol/L for triglycerides, 0.10 mmol/L for total cholesterol, 0.01 mmol/L for HDL cholesterol, 0.11 mmol/L for LDL cholesterol, and 0.07 mmol/L for glycaemia. Similar results were obtained when the analysis was restricted to studies collecting fasting blood samples. Similar seasonal variations were found for most CVRFs in the Southern Hemisphere, with the exception of waist circumference, HDL, and LDL cholesterol. CONCLUSIONS: CVRFs show a seasonal pattern characterised by higher levels in winter, and lower levels in summer. This pattern could contribute to the seasonality of CV mortality.