Analysing the spatio-temporal patterns of vegetation dynamics and their responses to climatic parameters in Meghalaya from 2001 to 2020.

Quantification of the spatio-temporal trends in vegetation dynamics and its drivers is crucial to ensure sustainable management of ecosystems. The north-eastern state of Meghalaya possessing an idiosyncratic climatic regime has been undergoing tremendous pressure in the past decades considering the recent climate change scenario. A robust trend analysis has been performed using the MODIS NDVI (MOD13Q1) data (2001-2020) along with multi-source gridded climate data (precipitation and temperature) to detect changes in the vegetation dynamics and corresponding climatic variables by employing the Theil-Sen Median trend test and Mann-Kendall test (τ). The spatial variability of trends was gauged with respect to 7 major forest types, administrative boundaries and different elevational gradients found in the area. Results revealed a large positive inter-annual trend (85.48%) with a minimal negative trend (14.52%) in the annual mean NDVI. Mean Annual Precipitation presents a negative trend in 66.97% of the area mainly concentrated in the eastern portion of the state while the western portion displays a positive trend in about 33.03% of the area. Temperature exhibits a 98% positive trend in Meghalaya. Pettitt Change Point Detection revealed three major breakpoints viz., 2010, 2012 and 2014 in the NDVI values from 2001 to 2020 over the forested region of Meghalaya. A consistent future vegetation trend (87.78%) in Meghalaya was identified through Hurst Exponent. A positive correlation between vegetation and temperature was observed in about 82.81% of the area. The western portion of the state was seen to reflect a clear correlation between NDVI and rainfall as compared to the eastern portion where NDVI is correlated more with temperature than rainfall. A gradual deviation of rainfall towards the west was identified which might be feedback of the increasing significant greening observed in the state in the recent decades. This study, therefore, serves as a decadal archive of forest dynamics and also provides an insight into the long-term impact of climate change on vegetation which would further help in investigating and projecting the future ecosystem dynamics in Meghalaya.

Improved NDVI based proxy leaf-fall indicator to assess rainfall sensitivity of deciduousness in the central Indian forests through remote sensing.

Quantifying the leaf-fall dynamics in the tropical deciduous forest will help in modeling regional energy balance and nutrient recycle pattern, but the traditional ground-based leaf-fall enumeration is a tedious and geographically limited approach. Therefore, there is a need for a reliable spatial proxy leaf-fall (i.e., deciduousness) indicator. In this context, this study attempted to improve the existing deciduousness metric using time-series NDVI data (MOD13Q1; 250 m; 16 days interval) and investigated its spatio-temporal variability and sensitivity to rainfall anomalies across the central Indian tropical forest over 18 years (2001-2018). The study also analysed the magnitude of deciduousness during extreme (i.e., dry and wet) and normal rainfall years, and compared its variability with the old metric. The improved NDVI based deciduousness metric performed satisfactorily, as its observed variations were in tandem with ground observations in different forest types, and for different pheno-classes. This is the first kind of study in India revealing the spatio-temporal character of leaf-fall in different ecoregions, elevation gradients and vegetation fraction.