RESUMO
Pollen, a significant natural bioaerosol and allergen for sensitized individuals, is expected to increase in prevalence due to climate change. Mitigating allergy symptoms involves avoiding pollen exposure and pre-medication, emphasizing the importance of real-time knowledge of localized ambient air pollen concentrations. Laser diode Optical Particle Counters (OPCs) are commonly used for monitoring particle number concentrations in ambient air. This study explores the hypothesis that OPCs can monitor pollen but may struggle to distinguish them from other particles. We aimed to isolate the pollen signal from collective particle number concentrations using source apportionment models, specifically Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) and Unmix, applied to multiple bin OPC data. The pollen signals isolated using PMF show slightly better correlation values than those isolated using Unmix. PMF-derived pollen signals exhibit strong correlations with Holoptelea (r = 0.64) and total pollen (r = 0.54) concentrations, while a moderate correlation is observed with Poaceae (r = 0.47). Exclusion of low pollen events strengthens correlations for Holoptelea and Poaceae to very strong (r = 0.87) and strong (r = 0.67), respectively. Although both model types effectively isolate the pollen signal, metrics suggest that Unmix has the potential for more accurate predictions of both moderate and extreme pollen events simultaneously. The Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Relative Root Mean Square Error (RRMSE) metrics for Holoptelea are 46.2 grains m-3, 72.4 grains m-3, and 15.3; for Poaceae, 3.9 grains m-3, 4.9 grains m-3, and 13.0; and for total pollen, 43.5 grains m-3, 72.1 grains m-3, and 14.1. This study represents a significant development in the use of source apportionment models and ambient OPCs for real-time pollen monitoring, offering a cost-effective alternative to conventional automated pollen sensors. Despite challenges, the proposed methodology provides a practical and accessible solution for pollen monitoring, contributing to the advancement of bioaerosol monitoring technologies.
