Prognosis and cure of long-term cancer survivors: A population-based estimation.

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence of cure for some neoplasms has emerged in recent years. The study aimed to estimate population-based indicators of cancer cure. METHODS: Information on more than half a million cancer patients aged 15-74 years collected by population-based Italian cancer registries and mixture cure models were used to estimate the life expectancy of fatal tumors (LEFT), proportions of patients with similar death rates of the general population (cure fraction), and time to reach 5-year conditional relative survival (CRS) >90% or 95% (time to cure). RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2000, the median LEFT increased >1 year for breast (from 8.1 to 9.4 years) and prostate cancers (from 5.2 to 7.4 years). Median LEFT in 1990 was >5 years for testicular cancers (5.8) and Hodgkin lymphoma (6.3) below 45 years of age. In both sexes, it was ≤0.5 years for pancreatic cancers and NHL in 1990 and in 2000. The cure fraction showed a 10% increase between 1990 and 2000. It was 95% for thyroid cancer in women, 94% for testis, 75% for prostate, 67% for breast cancers, and <20% for liver, lung, and pancreatic cancers. Time to 5-year CRS >95% was <10 years for testis, thyroid, colon cancers, and melanoma. For breast and prostate cancers, the 5-year CRS >90% was reached in <10 years but a small excess remained for >15 years. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings confirmed that several cancer types are curable. Became aware of the possibility of cancer cure has relevant clinical and social impacts.

The impact of overdiagnosis on thyroid cancer epidemic in Italy,1998-2012.

AIMS: In Italy, incidence rates of thyroid cancer (TC) are among the highest worldwide with substantial intracountry heterogeneity. The aim of the study was to examine time trends of TC incidence in Italy and to estimate the proportion of TC cases potentially attributable to overdiagnosis. METHODS: Data on TC cases reported to Italian cancer registries during 1998-2012 aged <85 years were included. Age-standardised incidence rates (ASR) were computed by sex, period, and histology. TC overdiagnosis was estimated by sex, period, age, and Italian region. RESULTS: In Italy between 1998-2002 and 2008-2012, TC ASR increased of 74% in women (from 16.2 to 28.2/100,000) and of 90% in men (from 5.3 to 10.1/100,000). ASR increases were nearly exclusively due to papillary TC (+91% in women, +120% in men). In both sexes, more than three-fold differences emerged between regions with highest and lowest ASR. Among TC cases diagnosed in 1998-2012 in Italy, we estimated that overdiagnosis accounted for 75% of cases in women and 63% in men and increased over the study period leading to overdiagnosis of 79% in women and 67% in men in 2008-2012. Notably, overdiagnosis was over 80% among women aged <55 years, and substantial variations were documented across Italian regions, in both genders. CONCLUSION(S): Incidence rates of TC are steadily increasing in Italy and largely due to overdiagnosis. These findings call for an update of thyroid gland examination practices in the asymptomatic general population, at national and regional levels.