Predictors of mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients and risk score formulation for prioritizing tertiary care-An experience from South India.

BACKGROUND: We retrospectively data-mined the case records of Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) confirmed COVID-19 patients hospitalized to a tertiary care centre to derive mortality predictors and formulate a risk score, for prioritizing admission. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data on clinical manifestations, comorbidities, vital signs, and basic lab investigations collected as part of routine medical management at admission to a COVID-19 tertiary care centre in Chengalpattu, South India between May and November 2020 were retrospectively analysed to ascertain predictors of mortality in the univariate analysis using their relative difference in distribution among 'survivors' and 'non-survivors'. The regression coefficients of those factors remaining significant in the multivariable logistic regression were utilised for risk score formulation and validated in 1000 bootstrap datasets. Among 746 COVID-19 patients hospitalised [487 "survivors" and 259 "non-survivors" (deaths)], there was a slight male predilection [62.5%, (466/746)], with a higher mortality rate observed among 40-70 years age group [59.1%, (441/746)] and highest among diabetic patients with elevated urea levels [65.4% (68/104)]. The adjusted odds ratios of factors [OR (95% CI)] significant in the multivariable logistic regression were SaO2<95%; 2.96 (1.71-5.18), Urea ≥50 mg/dl: 4.51 (2.59-7.97), Neutrophil-lymphocytic ratio (NLR) >3; 3.01 (1.61-5.83), Age ≥50 years;2.52 (1.45-4.43), Pulse Rate ≥100/min: 2.02 (1.19-3.47) and coexisting Diabetes Mellitus; 1.73 (1.02-2.95) with hypertension and gender not retaining their significance. The individual risk scores for SaO2<95-11, Urea ≥50 mg/dl-15, NLR >3-11, Age ≥50 years-9, Pulse Rate ≥100/min-7 and coexisting diabetes mellitus-6, acronymed collectively as 'OUR-ARDs score' showed that the sum of scores ≥ 25 predicted mortality with a sensitivity-90%, specificity-64% and AUC of 0.85. CONCLUSIONS: The 'OUR ARDs' risk score, derived from easily assessable factors predicting mortality, offered a tangible solution for prioritizing admission to COVID-19 tertiary care centre, that enhanced patient care but without unduly straining the health system.

Correlation of non-clinical parameters with the hematological indices in type 2 diabetic Mellitus patients.

BACKGROUND: The study's main aim is to compare and correlate the levels of various hematological indices in type 2 DM patients with the gender, age, duration, and family history of diabetic conditions to predict diabetes-related complications. METHODS: The diabetic population is divided into 2, group 1- subjects with complications and group 2- subjects without complications. Hematological indices are measured using an automated analyzer. RESULTS: Females from group 1 show a significantly higher value for PLC (3.72 ± 4.79/<0.05) and positively correlate with the diabetic duration. Females with >40 years of age from group 2 show a significantly higher value for platelet larger cell ratio (P-LCR/%) (40.17 ± 3.25 (>40)/<0.05) than those with <40 age and positively correlated with the age. Males with >40 years of age from group 1 show a significantly higher value for plateletcrit (PCT/%) (0.297 ± 0.067 (>40)/<0.05) than those from <40 age and positively correlated with the age. All the male subjects show significant higher values for hemoglobin concentration (HB/g/dl) (13.49 ± 2.22)/<0.05 for group 1) (13.61 ± 2.02)/<0.05 for group 2) and hematocrit (HCT/L/L) (37.30 ± 7.55/<0.05 for group 1) (38.64 ± 5.42/<0.05 for group 2). CONCLUSION: Correlating the hematological indices with the gender, age, and duration of diabetic condition will help determine future complications and the severity of the diabetic condition in type 2 DM patients.