A Bayesian approach to real-time spatiotemporal prediction systems for bronchiolitis.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) induced bronchiolitis is a common lung infection and a major cause of infant hospitalization and mortality. Unfortunately, there is no known cure for RSV but several vaccines are in various stages of clinical trials. Currently, immunoprophylaxis is a preventative measure consisting of a series of monthly shots that should be administered at the start, and throughout, peak RSV season. Thus, the successful implementation of immunoprophylaxis is contingent upon understanding when outbreak seasons will begin, peak, and end. In this research we estimate the seasonal epidemic curves of RSV induced bronchiolitis using a spatially varying change point model. Further, in a novel approach and using the fitted change point model, we develop a historical matching algorithm to generate real time predictions of seasonal curves for future years.

Marked Reduction of Socioeconomic and Racial Disparities in Invasive Pneumococcal Disease Associated With Conjugate Pneumococcal Vaccines.

BACKGROUND: It is not known whether reductions in socioeconomic and racial disparities in incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (defined as the isolation of Streptococcus pneumoniae from a normally sterile body site) noted after pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction have been sustained. METHODS: Individual-level data collected from 20 Tennessee counties participating in Active Bacterial Core surveillance over 19 years were linked to neighborhood-level socioeconomic factors. Incidence rates were analyzed across 3 periods-pre-7-valent PCV (pre-PCV7; 1998-1999), pre-13-valent PCV (pre-PCV13; 2001-2009), and post-PCV13 (2011-2016)-by socioeconomic factors. RESULTS: A total of 8491 cases of invasive pneumococcal disease were identified. Incidence for invasive pneumococcal disease decreased from 22.9 (1998-1999) to 17.9 (2001-2009) to 12.7 (2011-2016) cases per 100 000 person-years. Post-PCV13 incidence (95% confidence interval [CI]) of PCV13-serotype disease in high- and low-poverty neighborhoods was 3.1 (2.7-3.5) and 1.4 (1.0-1.8), respectively, compared with pre-PCV7 incidence of 17.8 (15.7-19.9) and 6.4 (4.9-7.9). Before PCV introduction, incidence (95% CI) of PCV13-serotype disease was higher in blacks than whites (17.3 [15.1-19.5] vs 11.8 [10.6-13.0], respectively); after introduction, PCV13-type disease incidence was greatly reduced in both groups (white: 2.7 [2.4-3.0]; black: 2.2 [1.8-2.6]). CONCLUSIONS: Introduction of PCV13 was associated with substantial reductions in overall incidence and socioeconomic and racial disparities in PCV13-serotype incidence.

Geospatial and Temporal Associations between Increases in Opioid Deaths, Socioeconomics, and Rates of Sexually Transmitted Infections in the Northeast United States 2012-2017.

With the introduction of fentanyl to illegal markets in 2013 and an overall rise in rates of synthetic opioid use, opioid-related deaths have increased significantly. A similar trend has been observed for sexually transmitted infections, homicides, and poor mental health outcomes. In this paper, we explore the spatiotemporal relationship between opioid death rates and sexually transmitted infection (STI) rates in counties from the Northeast region of the United States between the years 2012-2017. We hypothesized that rates for gonorrhea, chlamydia, and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) would all be positively associated with opioid death rates and that there would be a similar association between the STI rates and later time periods relative to earlier time periods. A negative binomial mixed-effects regression model was employed to assess these associations. Contrary to the study hypothesis, opioid death rates were not found to be significantly associated with the STI rates after accounting for other demographic and socioeconomic variables, with the exception of opioid deaths and gonorrhea in urban counties. Additionally, the regression demonstrated a significant association between infection rate and time period beyond the included socioeconomic variables and opioid deaths. Overall, this study indicates that declining sexual health outcomes may parallel rising opioid death, though both trends may be explained by similar underlying factors related to time period.

Modeling Bronchiolitis Incidence Proportions in the Presence of Spatio-Temporal Uncertainty.

Bronchiolitis (inflammation of the lower respiratory tract) in infants is primarily due to viral infection and is the single most common cause of infant hospitalization in the United States. To increase epidemiological understanding of bronchiolitis (and, subsequently, develop better prevention strategies), this research analyzes data on infant bronchiolitis cases from the U.S. Military Health System between the years 2003-2013 in Norfolk, Virginia, USA. For privacy reasons, child home addresses, birth dates, and diagnosis dates were randomized (jittered) creating spatio-temporal uncertainty in the geographic location and timing of bronchiolitis incidents. Using spatio-temporal point patterns, we created a modeling strategy that accounts for the jittering to estimate and quantify the uncertainty for the incidence proportion (IP) of bronchiolitis. Additionally, we regress the IP onto key covariates including pollution where we adequately account for uncertainty in the pollution levels (i.e., covariate uncertainty) using a land use regression model. Our analysis results indicate that the IP is positively associated with sulfur dioxide and population density. Further, we demonstrate how scientific conclusions may change if various sources of uncertainty (either spatio-temporal or covariate uncertainty) are not accounted for. Code submitted with this article was checked by an Associate Editor for Reproducibility and is available as an online supplement.

Political and personal reactions to COVID-19 during initial weeks of social distancing in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To examine perceptions, behaviors, and impacts surrounding COVID-19 early in the pandemic response. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of 1,030 U.S. adults was administered on March 31st, 2020. This survey examined attitudes toward media, government, and community responses to COVID-19 by political ideology and sociodemographic factors. Knowledge, anxieties, and impacts of COVID-19 were also assessed. RESULTS: Conservatives were more likely to report that COVID-19 was receiving too much media coverage and people were generally overreacting; liberals were more likely to report the government had not done enough in response to the pandemic. Females and those with lower income experienced more COVID-19 related economic anxieties. Those working and with children at home reported higher social, home, and work disruption. Social distancing behaviors were more common among liberals and were associated with increases in depressive symptoms. General knowledge about COVID-19 was widely exhibited across the sample, however, Black and Hispanic respondents were less likely to correctly answer questions about the availability of a vaccine and modes of transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Public health experts should consider the political climate in crafting messaging that appeals to the values of those across the political spectrum. Research on the COVID-19 pandemic should continue to monitor the effects of social distancing on mental health and among vulnerable populations.

Spatial and temporal clustering of patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Timing of influenza spread across the United States is dependent on factors including local and national travel patterns and climate. Local epidemic intensity may be influenced by social, economic and demographic patterns. Data are needed to better explain how local socioeconomic factors influence both the timing and intensity of influenza seasons to result in national patterns. METHODS: To determine the spatial and temporal impacts of socioeconomics on influenza hospitalization burden and timing, we used population-based laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalization surveillance data from the CDC-sponsored Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network (FluSurv-NET) at up to 14 sites from the 2009/2010 through 2013/2014 seasons (n = 35,493 hospitalizations). We used a spatial scan statistic and spatiotemporal wavelet analysis, to compare temporal patterns of influenza spread between counties and across the country. RESULTS: There were 56 spatial clusters identified in the unadjusted scan statistic analysis using data from the 2010/2011 through the 2013/2014 seasons, with relative risks (RRs) ranging from 0.09 to 4.20. After adjustment for socioeconomic factors, there were five clusters identified with RRs ranging from 0.21 to 1.20. In the wavelet analysis, most sites were in phase synchrony with one another for most years, except for the H1N1 pandemic year (2009-2010), wherein most sites had differential epidemic timing from the referent site in Georgia. CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic factors strongly impact local influenza hospitalization burden. Influenza phase synchrony varies by year and by socioeconomics, but is less influenced by socioeconomics than is disease burden.

Comparative Seasonal Respiratory Virus Epidemic Timing in Utah.

Previous studies have found evidence of viral interference between seasonal respiratory viruses. Using laboratory-confirmed data from a Utah-based healthcare provider, Intermountain Health Care, we analyzed the time-specific patterns of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza A, influenza B, human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus, and enterovirus circulation from 2004 to 2018, using descriptive methods and wavelet analysis (n = 89,462) on a local level. The results showed that RSV virus dynamics in Utah were the most consistent of any of the viruses studied, and that the other seasonal viruses were generally in synchrony with RSV, except for enterovirus (which mostly occurs late summer to early fall) and influenza A and B during pandemic years.

Estimating seasonal onsets and peaks of bronchiolitis with spatially and temporally uncertain data.

RSV bronchiolitis (an acute lower respiratory tract viral infection in infants) is the most common cause of infant hospitalizations in the United States (US). The only preventive intervention currently available is monthly injections of immunoprophylaxis. However, this treatment is expensive and needs to be administered simultaneously with seasonal bronchiolitis cycles in order to be effective. To increase our understanding of bronchiolitis timing, this research focuses on identifying seasonal bronchiolitis cycles (start times, peaks, and declinations) throughout the continental US using data on infant bronchiolitis cases from the US Military Health System Data Repository. Because this data involved highly personal information, the bronchiolitis dates in the dataset were "jittered" in the sense that the recorded dates were randomized within a time window of the true date. Hence, we develop a statistical change point model that estimates spatially varying seasonal bronchiolitis cycles while accounting for the purposefully introduced jittering in the data. Additionally, by including temperature and humidity data as regressors, we identify a relationship between bronchiolitis seasonality and climate. We found that, in general, bronchiolitis seasons begin earlier and are longer in the southeastern states compared to the western states with peak times lasting approximately 1 month nationwide.

Modeling the effects of atmospheric pressure on suicide rates in the USA using geographically weighted regression.

Low atmospheric pressure may increase depression and suicide through inducing hypoxia. Previous studies have not evaluated the geographic variation of this relationship across the United States. Analyses were based on three groupings of age-adjusted completed suicide rates (all suicide, firearm-related suicide, non-firearm-related suicide) from 2286 counties in the United States. Multiple regression was used to determine the overall relationship between atmospheric pressure and completed suicide rates. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) models were used to obtain local coefficient estimates. A negative correlation between atmospheric pressure and completed suicide rates was observed for all three suicide groupings (p-value <0.0001). Significant, negative GWR coefficient estimates were located in the West and Northeast for the all suicides and firearm-related suicides, and in the Midwest for non-firearm-related suicides.

Transitions From Heart Disease to Cancer as the Leading Cause of Death in US States, 1999-2016.

INTRODUCTION: Heart disease has been the leading cause of death in the United States since 1910 and cancer the second leading cause of death since 1933. However, cancer emerged recently as the leading cause of death in many US states. The objective of this study was to provide an in-depth analysis of age-standardized annual state-specific mortality rates for heart disease and cancer. METHODS: We used population-based mortality data from 1999 through 2016 to compare 2 underlying cause-of-death categories: diseases of heart (International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision [ICD-10] codes I00-I09, I11, I13, and I20-I51) and malignant neoplasms (ICD-10 codes C00-C97). We calculated age-standardized annual state-specific mortality rate ratios (MRRs) as heart disease mortality rate divided by cancer mortality rate. RESULTS: In 1999, age-standardized heart disease mortality exceeded that for cancer in all 50 states. Median state-specific MRR in 1999 was 1.26 (interquartile range [IQR], 1.17-1.34; range, 1.03-1.56), indicating predominance of heart disease mortality nationwide. Median state-specific MRR decreased annually through 2010, reaching a low of 1.00 (IQR, 0.95-1.07; range, 0.71-1.25), indicating that predominance of heart disease mortality prevailed in approximately half of states. Median state-specific MRR increased to 1.03 (IQR, 0.97-1.12; range, 0.77-1.31) in 2016. In 2016, age-standardized cancer mortality exceeded that for heart disease in 19 states. State-level transitions were most apparent for people aged 65 to 84 and affected men, women, and all racial/ethnic groups. CONCLUSION: State-level data indicated heterogeneity across US states in the predominance of heart disease mortality relative to cancer mortality. Timing and magnitude of transitions toward cancer mortality predominance varied by state.

Effectiveness of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Immunoprophylaxis in Reducing Bronchiolitis Hospitalizations Among High-Risk Infants.

We sought to determine the real-world effectiveness of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) immunoprophylaxis in a population-based cohort to inform policy. The study population included infants born during 1996-2008 and enrolled in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California integrated health-care delivery system. During the RSV season (November-March), the date of RSV immunoprophylaxis administration and the following 30 days were defined as RSV immunoprophylaxis protected period(s), and all other days were defined as unprotected period(s). Numbers of bronchiolitis hospitalizations were determined using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, codes during RSV season. We used a proportional hazards model to estimate risk of bronchiolitis hospitalization when comparing infants' protected period(s) with unprotected period(s). Infants who had ever received RSV immunoprophylaxis had a 32% decreased risk of bronchiolitis hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.68, 95% confidence interval: 0.46, 1.00) when protected periods were compared with unprotected periods. Infants with chronic lung disease (CLD) had a 52% decreased risk of bronchiolitis hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.48, 95% confidence interval: 0.25, 0.94) when protected periods were compared with unprotected periods. Under the new 2014 American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) guidelines, 48% of infants eligible for RSV immunoprophylaxis on the basis of AAP guidelines in place at birth would no longer be eligible, but nearly all infants with CLD would remain eligible. RSV immunoprophylaxis is effective in decreasing hospitalization. This association is greatest for infants with CLD, a group still recommended for receipt of RSV immunoprophylaxis under the new AAP guidelines.

INTEGRATING COMMUNITY-LEVEL DATA RESOURCES FOR PRECISION MEDICINE RESEARCH.

Precision Medicine focuses on collecting and using individual-level data to improve healthcare outcomes. To date, research efforts have been motivated by molecular-scale measurements, such as incorporating genomic data into clinical use. In many cases however, environmental, social, and economic factors are much more predictive of health outcomes, yet are not systematically used in clinical practice due to the difficulties in measurement and quantification. Advances in both the availability of electronic health information, environmental exposure data, and the more systematic use of geo-coding now provide ways to systematically assess community-level indicators of health, and link these factors to electronic health records for evaluating their influence on disease outcomes. In this workshop, we discuss new electronic sources of community-level data, and provide insight into their utility and validity when compared with gold-standard data collection approaches.

Identifying and Reducing Disparities in Mental Health Outcomes Among American Indians and Alaskan Natives Using Public Health, Mental Healthcare and Legal Perspectives.

The purpose of this paper was to investigate disparities in mental healthcare delivery in American Indian/Alaska Native populations from three perspectives: public health, legal policy and mental healthcare and provide evidence-based recommendations toward reducing those disparities. Data on mental health funding to tribes were obtained from the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. As a result of analysis of these data, vital statistics and current literature, we propose three recommendations to reduce mental health disparities. First, where possible, increase mental health funding opportunities for federally-recognized tribes. Second, model funding practices on principles of tribal self-determination. Finally, support diverse interventions that are culturally-based and culturally-appropriate.

Personal exposure to fine particulate air pollution while commuting: An examination of six transport modes on an urban arterial roadway.

Traffic-related air pollution in urban areas contributes significantly to commuters' daily PM2.5 exposures, but varies widely depending on mode of commuting. To date, studies show conflicting results for PM2.5 exposures based on mode of commuting, and few studies compare multiple modes of transportation simultaneously along a common route, making inter-modal comparisons difficult. In this study, we examined breathing zone PM2.5 exposures for six different modes of commuting (bicycle, walking, driving with windows open and closed, bus, and light-rail train) simultaneously on a single 2.7 km (1.68 mile) arterial urban route in Salt Lake City, Utah (USA) during peak "rush hour" times. Using previously published minute ventilation rates, we estimated the inhaled dose and exposure rate for each mode of commuting. Mean PM2.5 concentrations ranged from 5.20 µg/m3 for driving with windows closed to 15.21 µg/m3 for driving with windows open. The estimated inhaled doses over the 2.7 km route were 6.83 µg for walking, 2.78 µg for cycling, 1.28 µg for light-rail train, 1.24 µg for driving with windows open, 1.23 µg for bus, and 0.32 µg for driving with windows closed. Similarly, the exposure rates were highest for cycling (18.0 µg/hr) and walking (16.8 µg/hr), and lowest for driving with windows closed (3.7 µg/hr). Our findings support previous studies showing that active commuters receive a greater PM2.5 dose and have higher rates of exposure than commuters using automobiles or public transportation. Our findings also support previous studies showing that driving with windows closed is protective against traffic-related PM2.5 exposure.

Social determinants of influenza hospitalization in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Influenza hospitalizations result in substantial morbidity and mortality each year. Little is known about the association between influenza hospitalization and census tract-based socioeconomic determinants beyond the effect of individual factors. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether census tract-based determinants such as poverty and household crowding would contribute significantly to the risk of influenza hospitalization above and beyond individual-level determinants. METHODS: We analyzed 33 515 laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations that occurred during the 2009-2010 through 2013-2014 influenza seasons using a population-based surveillance system at 14 sites across the United States. RESULTS: Using a multilevel regression model, we found that individual factors were associated with influenza hospitalization with the highest adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 9.20 (95% CI 8.72-9.70) for those ≥65 vs 5-17 years old. African Americans had an AOR of 1.67 (95% CI 1.60-1.73) compared to Whites, and Hispanics had an AOR of 1.21 (95% CI 1.16-1.26) compared to non-Hispanics. Among census tract-based determinants, those living in a tract with ≥20% vs <5% of persons living below poverty had an AOR of 1.31 (95% CI 1.16-1.47), those living in a tract with ≥5% vs <5% of persons living in crowded conditions had an AOR of 1.17 (95% CI 1.11-1.23), and those living in a tract with ≥40% vs <5% female heads of household had an AOR of 1.32 (95% CI 1.25-1.40). CONCLUSION: Census tract-based determinants account for 11% of the variability in influenza hospitalization.

Interference Between Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Human Rhinovirus Infection in Infancy.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and human rhinovirus (HRV) are the most common viruses associated with acute respiratory tract infections in infancy. Viral interference is important in understanding respiratory viral circulation and the impact of vaccines. METHODS: To study viral interference, we evaluated cases of RSV and HRV codetection by polymerase chain reaction in 2 prospective birth cohort studies (the Infant Susceptibility to Pulmonary Infections and Asthma Following RSV Exposure [INSPIRE] study and the Tennessee Children's Respiratory Initiative [TCRI]) and a double-blinded, randomized, controlled trial (MAKI), using adjusted multivariable regression analyses. RESULTS: Among 3263 respiratory tract samples, 24.5% (798) and 37.3% (1216) were RSV and HRV positive, respectively. The odds of HRV infection were significantly lower in RSV-infected infants in all cohorts, with adjusted odds ratios of 0.30 (95% confidence interval [CI], .22-.40 in the INSPIRE study, 0.18 (95% CI, .11-.28) in the TCRI (adjusted for disease severity), and 0.34 (95% CI, .16-.72) in the MAKI trial. HRV infection was significantly more common among infants administered RSV immunoprophylaxis, compared with infants who did not receive immunoprophylaxis (OR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.65-2.39). CONCLUSIONS: A negative association of RSV on HRV codetection was consistently observed across populations, seasons, disease severity, and geographical regions. Suppressing RSV infection by RSV immunoprophylaxis might increase the risk of having HRV infection.

The impact of temperature and relative humidity on spatiotemporal patterns of infant bronchiolitis epidemics in the contiguous United States.

Infant bronchiolitis is primarily due to infection by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which is highly seasonal. The goal of the study is to understand how circulation of RSV is impacted by fluctuations in temperature and humidity in order to inform prevention efforts. Using data from the Military Health System (MHS) Data Repository (MDR), we calculated rates of infant bronchiolitis for the contiguous US from July 2004 to June 2013. Monthly temperature and relative humidity were extracted from the National Climate Data Center. Using a spatiotemporal generalized linear model for binomial data, we estimated bronchiolitis rates and the effects of temperature and relative humidity while allowing them to vary over location and time. Our results indicate a seasonal pattern that begins in the Southeast during November or December, then spreading in a Northwest direction. The relationships of temperature and humidity were spatially heterogeneous, and we find that climate can partially account for early onset or longer epidemic duration. Small changes in climate may be associated with larger fluctuations in epidemic duration.

Respiratory syncytial virus immunoprophylaxis in high-risk infants and development of childhood asthma.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) lower respiratory tract infection is implicated in asthma development. RSV immunoprophylaxis during infancy is efficacious in preventing RSV-related hospitalizations and has been associated with decreased wheezing in the first years of life. OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether greater adherence to immunoprophylaxis in infants at high risk for severe RSV would be associated with decreased childhood asthma. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort investigation including children born from 1996-2003 who were enrolled in Kaiser Permanente Northern California or Tennessee Medicaid and eligible to receive RSV immunoprophylaxis. Asthma was defined at 4.5 to 6 years of age by using asthma-specific health care visits and medication fills. We classified children into immunoprophylaxis eligibility groups and calculated adherence (percentage receipt of recommended doses). We used a set of statistical strategies (multivariable logistic regression and propensity score [PS]-adjusted and PS-matched analyses) to overcome confounding by medical complexity because infants with higher adherence (≥70%) have higher prevalence of chronic lung disease, lower birth weight, and longer nursery stays. RESULTS: By using multivariable logistic regression and PS-adjusted models in the combined group, higher adherence to RSV immunoprophylaxis was not associated with decreased asthma. However, in PS-matched analysis, treated children with 70% or greater adherence had decreased odds of asthma compared with those with 20% or less adherence (odds ratio, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.50-0.78). CONCLUSIONS: This investigation of RSV immunoprophylaxis in high-risk children primarily found nonsignificant associations on prevention of asthma in specific preterm groups. Our findings highlight the need for larger studies and prospective cohorts and provide estimates of potential preventive effect sizes in high-risk children.

Elemental analysis of infant airborne particulate exposures.

Air pollution is hypothesized to have negative impacts on infant pulmonary health because of infants' increased rates of respiration and ongoing lung development. The severity and type of impact may differ depending on elemental concentrations. We conducted a study of 21 infants <6 months old whose parents carried a small personal particulate monitoring device (RTI MicroPEM) and GPS unit with the infant for 7 days in January and February 2015. The study area was Utah County, UT, USA. Real-time particulate exposure levels, as well as optical density and elemental analysis of the particulate matter (PM), were compared with levels from an outdoor stationary monitor. Infants spent an average of 87.4% of their time indoors. PM levels varied widely by infant and time of day (average=19.07 µg/m3, range=0.63-170.25 µg/m3). Infant particulate exposures were not well approximated by the outdoor monitor. Infants had lower exposures to Sb, Mn, Pb, W and Fe than the outdoor monitor and higher exposures to Cd, Ni and Na. Differences were most pronounced for Na. Brown carbon was only detected by personal monitors and not by the outdoor monitor. Further research is needed to understand the potential implications of indoor elemental exposures on early respiratory development.