Participation in the national cervical screening programme among women from New South Wales, Australia, by place of birth and time since immigration: A data linkage analysis using the 45 and up study.

OBJECTIVE: Equitable elimination of cervical cancer in Australia within the next decade will require high National Cervical Screening Program (NCSP) participation by all subgroups of women. The aim of this study was to examine the participation of immigrants compared to Australian-born women. METHODS: Participation in the NCSP (≥1cytology test) over a 3-year (2010-2012) and 5-year (2008-2012) period, by place of birth and time since immigration was examined using individually linked data of 67,350 New South Wales (NSW) women aged ≥45 enrolled in the 45 and Up Study. RESULTS: Three-year cervical screening participation was 77.0% overall. Compared to Australian-born women (77.8%), 3-year participation was lower for women born in New Zealand (adjusted odds ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.69-0.87), Oceania (0.67, 0.51-0.89), Middle East/North Africa (0.76, 0.60-0.97), South-East Asia (0.72, 0.60-0.87), Chinese Asia (0.82, 0.69-0.97), Japan/South Korea (0.68, 0.50-0.94), and Southern/Central Asia (0.54, 0.43-0.67), but higher for women from Malta (2.85, 1.77-4.58) and South America (1.33, 1.01-1.75). Non-English-speaking-at-home women were less likely to be screened than English-speaking-at-home women (0.85, 0.78-0.93). Participation increased with years lived in Australia but remained lower in immigrant groups compared to Australian-born women, even after ≥20 years living in Australia. Similar results were observed for 5-year participation. CONCLUSIONS: Women born in New Zealand, Oceania, and parts of Asia and the Middle East had lower NCSP participation, which persisted for ≥20 years post-immigration. The NCSP transition to primary HPV screening, and the introduction of the universal self-collection option in 2022, will offer new opportunities for increasing screening participation for these groups.

A modelled analysis of the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to HPV vaccination.

COVID-19 disrupted school attendance in many countries, delaying routine adolescent vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) in some settings. We used Policy1-Cervix, a dynamic model simulating HPV transmission, natural history, vaccination, cervical screening, and diagnosis of HPV-related cancers, to estimate the impact on HPV-related cancers from disruptions to HPV vaccination in a high-income setting. A baseline scenario of no disruption to HPV vaccination was modelled, which assumed uptake of the nonavalent vaccine at the age of 12 by 82.4% of females and 75.5% of males, as is the coverage in Australia. Additional lifetime HPV-related cancer cases were calculated for three disruption scenarios affecting one birth cohort (2008; aged 12 in 2020) compared to the baseline scenario: (1) 1-year delay (no doses missed); (2) 1- to 7-year delay (slow catch-up); (3) no catch-up (herd effects only). A fourth scenario assumed no catch-up HPV vaccination for two birth cohorts, that is all individuals born in 2008 and in 2009 missed vaccination (worst-case scenario). Compared to 1532 HPV-related cancer cases estimated for the baseline no disruption scenario, we found a 1-year delay could result in ≤0.3% more HPV-related cancers (n = 4) but the increase would be greater if catch-up was slower (5%; n = 70), and especially if there was no catch-up (49%; n = 750). Additional cancers for a single missed cohort were most commonly cervical (23% of the additional cases) and anal cancers (16%) in females and oropharyngeal cancers in males (20%). In the worst-case scenario of two birth cohorts missing vaccination, ≤62% more HPV-related cancers would be diagnosed (n = 1892). In conclusion, providing catch-up of missed HPV vaccines is conducted, short-term delays in vaccinating adolescents are unlikely to have substantial long-term effects on cancer.

The early impacts of primary HPV cervical screening implementation in Australia on the pathology sector: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The transition of Australia's National Cervical Screening Program from cytology to a molecular test for human papillomavirus (HPV) (locally referred to as the 'Renewal'), including a longer five-year interval and older age at commencement, significantly impacted all sectors of program delivery. The Renewal had major implications for the roles and requirements of pathology laboratories providing services for the Program. This study aimed to understand the early impacts of the Renewal and its implementation on the pathology sector. METHODS: Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with key stakeholders (N = 49) involved in the STakeholder Opinions of Renewal Implementation and Experiences Study (STORIES), 11-20 months after the program transition. A subset of interviews (N = 24) that discussed the pathology sector were analysed using inductive thematic analysis. RESULTS: Four overarching themes were identified: implementation enablers, challenges, missed opportunities, and possible improvements. Participants believed that the decision to transition to primary HPV screening was highly acceptable and evidence-based, but faced challenges due to impacts on laboratory infrastructure, resources, staffing, and finances. These challenges were compounded by unfamiliarity with new information technology (IT) systems and the new National Cancer Screening Register ('Register') not being fully functional by the date of the program transition. The limited availability of self-collection and lack of standardised fields in pathology forms were identified as missed opportunities to improve equity in the Program. To improve implementation processes, participants suggested increased pathology sector involvement in planning was needed, along with more timely and transparent communication from the Government, and clearer clinical management guidelines. CONCLUSION: The transition to primary HPV screening had a significant and multifaceted impact on the Australian pathology sector reflecting the magnitude and complexity of the Renewal. Strategies to support the pathology sector through effective change management, clear, timely, and transparent communication, as well as adequate funding sources will be critical for other countries planning to transition cervical screening programs.

Tissue-Like 3D Standard and Protocols for Microscope Quality Management.

This article outlines a global study conducted by the Association of Biomedical Resource Facilities (ABRF) Light Microscopy Research Group (LMRG). The results present a novel 3D tissue-like biologically relevant standard sample that is affordable and straightforward to prepare. Detailed sample preparation, instrument-specific image acquisition protocols and image analysis methods are presented and made available to the community. The standard consists of sub-resolution and large well characterized relative intensity fluorescence microspheres embedded in a 120 µm thick 3D gel with a refractive index of 1.365. The standard allows the evaluation of several properties as a function of depth. These include the following: 1) microscope resolution with automated analysis of the point-spread function (PSF), 2) automated signal-to-noise ratio analysis, 3) calibration and correction of fluorescence intensity loss, and 4) quantitative relative intensity. Results demonstrate expected refractive index mismatch dependent losses in intensity and resolution with depth, but the relative intensities of different objects at similar depths are maintained. This is a robust standard showing reproducible results across laboratories, microscope manufacturers and objective lens types (e.g., magnification, immersion medium). Thus, these tools will be valuable for the global community to benchmark fluorescence microscopes and will contribute to improved scientific rigor and reproducibility.

Implementation of Australia's primary human papillomavirus (HPV) cervical screening program: The STakeholders Opinions of Renewal Implementation and Experiences Study.

In this study, we aimed to document stakeholders' experiences of implementing Australia's renewed National Cervical Screening Program. In December 2017, the program changed from 2nd yearly cytology for 20-69 year olds to 5 yearly human papillomavirus (HPV) screening for women 25-74 years. We undertook semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders including government, program administrators, register staff, clinicians and health care workers, non-government organisations, professional bodies, and pathology laboratories from across Australia between Nov 2018 - Aug 2019. Response rate to emailed invitations was 49/85 (58%). We used Proctor et al's (2011) implementation outcomes framework to guide our questions and thematic analysis. We found that stakeholders were evenly divided over whether implementation was successful. There was strong support for change, but concern over aspects of the implementation. There was some frustration related to the delayed start, timeliness of communication and education, shortcomings in change management, lack of inclusion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in planning and implementation, failure to make self-collection widely available, and delays in the National Cancer Screening Register. Barriers centred around a perceived failure to appreciate the enormity of the change and register build, and consequent failure to resource, project manage and communicate effectively. Facilitators included the good will and dedication of stakeholders, strong evidence base for change and the support of jurisdictions during the delay. We documented substantial implementation challenges, offering learnings for other countries transitioning to HPV screening. Sufficient planning, significant and transparent engagement and communication with stakeholders, and change management are critical.

The Indigenous Australian Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Cohort Study 2, Continuation for 5 to 10 Years: Protocol for a Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, a common sexually transmitted disease, is associated with cancers of the cervix, vulva, vagina, penis, anus, and head and neck. Oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC; throat cancer) is a type of cancer involving the head and neck area that is rapidly increasing across the globe. There are higher rates of OPSCC among Indigenous populations relative to non-Indigenous Australian populations, although the HPV-attributable fraction remains unknown. For the first time at a global level, we plan to extend an Indigenous Australian adult cohort to monitor, screen, and ultimately prevent HPV-associated OPSCC and to undertake extensive cost-effectiveness modelling around HPV vaccination. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to (1) extend follow-up to a minimum of 7 years post recruitment to describe the prevalence, incidence, clearance, and persistence of oral HPV infection; and (2) conduct clinical examinations of the head and neck, oral cavity, and oropharynx and collect saliva samples for early-stage OPSCC testing. METHODS: We will continue to implement a longitudinal design for the next study phase, where we will ascertain the prevalence, incidence, clearance, and persistence of oral HPV infection at 48, 60, and 72 months; undertake clinical examinations/saliva assessments to detect early-stage OPSCC; and refer for treatment. The primary outcome measures are changes in oral HPV infection status, biomarker measures of early HPV-related cancer, and clinical evidence of early-stage OPSCC. RESULTS: Participant 48-month follow-up will commence in January 2023. The first results are expected to be submitted for publication 1 year after 48-month follow-up begins. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings have potential to change the way in which OPSCC among Australian Indigenous adults is managed, with desired impacts including cost-savings on expensive cancer treatments; improved nutritional, social, and emotional outcomes; and improved quality of life for both Indigenous adults and the Indigenous community more broadly. Continuing a large, representative Indigenous adult cohort to track oral HPV infection and monitor early OPSCC is essential to yield critical information to include in the management armamentarium of health and well-being recommendations for Australia's First Nations. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): PRR1-10.2196/44593.

A modelled evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 on breast, bowel, and cervical cancer screening programmes in Australia.

Australia introduced COVID-19 infection prevention and control measures in early 2020. To help prepare health services, the Australian Government Department of Health commissioned a modelled evaluation of the impact of disruptions to population breast, bowel, and cervical cancer screening programmes on cancer outcomes and cancer services. We used the Policy1 modelling platforms to predict outcomes for potential disruptions to cancer screening participation, covering periods of 3, 6, 9, and 12 mo. We estimated missed screens, clinical outcomes (cancer incidence, tumour staging), and various diagnostic service impacts. We found that a 12-mo screening disruption would reduce breast cancer diagnoses (9.3% population-level reduction over 2020-2021) and colorectal cancer (up to 12.1% reduction over 2020-21), and increase cervical cancer diagnoses (up to 3.6% over 2020-2022), with upstaging expected for these cancer types (2, 1.4, and 6.8% for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers, respectively). Findings for 6-12-mo disruption scenarios illustrate that maintaining screening participation is critical to preventing an increase in the burden of cancer at a population level. We provide programme-specific insights into which outcomes are expected to change, when changes are likely to become apparent, and likely downstream impacts. This evaluation provided evidence to guide decision-making for screening programmes and emphasises the ongoing benefits of maintaining screening in the face of potential future disruptions.

Exploring monitoring strategies for population surveillance of HPV vaccine impact using primary HPV screening.

Australia's cervical screening program transitioned from cytology to HPV-testing with genotyping for HPV16/18 in Dec'2017. We investigated whether program data could be used to monitor HPV vaccination program impact (commenced in 2007) on HPV16/18 prevalence and compared estimates with pre-vaccination benchmark prevalence. Pre-vaccination samples (2005-2008) (n = 1933; WHINURS), from 25 to 64-year-old women had been previously analysed with Linear Array (LA). Post-vaccination samples (2013-2014) (n = 2989; Compass pilot), from 25 to 64-year-old women, were analysed by cobas 4800 (cobas), and by LA for historical comparability. Age standardised pre-vaccination HPV16/18 prevalence was 4.85% (95%CI:3.81-5.89) by LA; post-vaccination estimates were 1.67% (95%CI:1.21-2.13%) by LA, 1.49% (95%CI:1.05-1.93%) by cobas, and 1.63% (95%CI:1.17-2.08%) for cobas and LA testing of non-16/18 cobas positives (cobas/LA). Age-standardised pre-vaccination oncogenic HPV prevalence was 15.70% (95%CI:13.79-17.60%) by LA; post-vaccination estimates were 9.06% (95%CI:8.02-10.09%) by LA, 8.47% (95%CI:7.47-9.47%) by cobas and cobas/LA. Standardised rate ratios between post-vs. pre-vaccination rates were significantly different for HPV16/18, non-16/18 HPV and oncogenic HPV: 0.34 (95%CI:0.23-0.50), 0.68 (95%CI:0.55-0.84) and 0.58 (95%CI:0.48-0.69), respectively. Additional strategies (LA for all cobas positives; combined cobas and LA results on all samples) had similar results. If a single method is applied consistently, it will provide important data on relative changes in HPV prevalence following vaccination.

An education resource for human papillomavirus oropharyngeal cancer patients: think-aloud interviews.

PURPOSE: The human papillomavirus (HPV) is well recognised as a factor in developing oropharyngeal cancer (OPC). A booklet for HPV-OPC patients aimed to deliver evidence-based messages in everyday language, in a way to minimise negative psychological impacts on patients. Our study explored the suitability of the booklet for use. METHODS: Participants were recruited through social media and interviewed via Zoom. Participants were shown the booklet and a think-aloud method elicited real-time reactions to the content. Responses were analysed for each section and coded as either for or against for content, with other responses thematically analysed using NVivo. RESULTS: The sample comprised 24 participants: patients (n = 19) who completed treatment for HPV-OPC and partners of survivors of HPV-OPC (n = 5). All participants found the booklet useful, and most wished the resource had been available previously. Some indicated the information was new to them. The majority agreed the booklet would be best delivered by their specialist at point of diagnosis and would be a useful resource for friends and family. Most participants gave feedback on improvements to the booklet in terms of comprehension and design. Overall, participants found the content easy to understand. Most participants found that it helped to reduce shame and stigma associated with HPV as a sexually transmitted infection. CONCLUSION: An evidence-based booklet for HPV-OPC patients and their partners is acceptable. Implementation may be feasible in routine clinical practice, specifically at time of diagnosis. Adapting the content will help optimise the efficacy of the booklet in facilitating communication between all stakeholders.

"So, if she wasn't aware of it, then how would everybody else out there be aware of it?"-Key Stakeholder Perspectives on the Initial Implementation of Self-Collection in Australia's Cervical Screening Program: A Qualitative Study.

BACKGROUND: In December 2017, the Australian National Cervical Screening Program transitioned from 2-yearly cytology-based to 5-yearly human papillomavirus (HPV)-based cervical screening, including a vaginal self-collection option. Until July 2022, this option was restricted to under- or never-screened people aged 30 years and older who refused a speculum exam. We investigated the perspectives and experiences of stakeholders involved in, or affected by, the initial implementation of the restricted self-collection pathway. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 49 stakeholders as part of the STakeholder Opinions of Renewal Implementation and Experiences Study. All interviews were audio recorded and transcribed. Data were thematically analysed and coded to the Conceptual Framework for Implementation Outcomes. RESULTS: Stakeholders viewed the introduction of self-collection as an exciting opportunity to provide under-screened people with an alternative to a speculum examination. Adoption in clinical practice, however, was impacted by a lack of clear communication and promotion to providers, and the limited number of laboratories accredited to process self-collected samples. Primary care providers tasked with communicating and offering self-collection described confusion about the availability, participant eligibility, pathology processes, and clinical management processes for self-collection. Regulatory delay in developing an agreed protocol to approve laboratory processing of self-collected swabs, and consequently initially having one laboratory nationally accredited to process samples, led to missed opportunities and misinformation regarding the pathway's availability. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst the introduction of self-collection was welcomed, clear communication from Government regarding setbacks in implementation and how to overcome these in practice were needed. As Australia moves to a policy of providing everyone eligible for screening the choice of self-collection, wider promotion to providers and eligible people, clarity around pathology processes and the scaling up of test availability, as well as timely education and communication of clinical management practice guidelines, are needed to ensure smoother program delivery in the future. Other countries implementing self-collection policies can learn from the implementation challenges faced by Australia.

A model-based analysis of the health impacts of COVID-19 disruptions to primary cervical screening by time since last screen for current and future disruptions.

We evaluated how temporary disruptions to primary cervical cancer (CC) screening services may differentially impact women due to heterogeneity in their screening history and test modality. We used three CC models to project the short- and long-term health impacts assuming an underlying primary screening frequency (i.e., 1, 3, 5, or 10 yearly) under three alternative COVID-19-related screening disruption scenarios (i.e., 1-, 2-, or 5-year delay) versus no delay in the context of both cytology-based and human papillomavirus (HPV)-based screening. Models projected a relative increase in symptomatically detected cancer cases during a 1-year delay period that was 38% higher (Policy1-Cervix), 80% higher (Harvard), and 170% higher (MISCAN-Cervix) for underscreened women whose last cytology screen was 5 years prior to the disruption period compared with guidelines-compliant women (i.e., last screen 3 years prior to disruption). Over a woman's lifetime, temporary COVID-19-related delays had less impact on lifetime risk of developing CC than screening frequency and test modality; however, CC risks increased disproportionately the longer time had elapsed since a woman's last screen at the time of the disruption. Excess risks for a given delay period were generally lower for HPV-based screeners than for cytology-based screeners. Our independent models predicted that the main drivers of CC risk were screening frequency and screening modality, and the overall impact of disruptions from the pandemic on CC outcomes may be small. However, screening disruptions disproportionately affect underscreened women, underpinning the importance of reaching such women as a critical area of focus, regardless of temporary disruptions.

Health impacts of COVID-19 disruptions to primary cervical screening by time since last screen: A model-based analysis for current and future disruptions.

Background: We evaluated how temporary disruptions to primary cervical cancer (CC) screening services may differentially impact women due to heterogeneity in their screening history and test modality. Methods: We used three CC models to project the short- and long-term health impacts assuming an underlying primary screening frequency (i.e., 1, 3, 5, or 10 yearly) under three alternative COVID-19-related screening disruption scenarios (i.e., 1-, 2- or 5-year delay) versus no delay, in the context of both cytology-based and HPV-based screening. Results: Models projected a relative increase in symptomatically-detected cancer cases during a 1-year delay period that was 38% higher (Policy1-Cervix), 80% higher (Harvard) and 170% higher (MISCAN-Cervix) for under-screened women whose last cytology screen was 5 years prior to the disruption period compared with guidelines-compliant women (i.e., last screen three years prior to disruption). Over a woman's lifetime, temporary COVID-19-related delays had less impact on lifetime risk of developing CC than screening frequency and test modality; however, CC risks increased disproportionately the longer time had elapsed since a woman's last screen at the time of the disruption. Excess risks for a given delay period were generally lower for HPV-based screeners than for cytology-based screeners. Conclusions: Our independent models predicted that the main drivers of CC risk were screening frequency and screening modality, and the overall impact of disruptions from the pandemic on CC outcomes may be small. However, screening disruptions disproportionately affect under-screened women, underpinning the importance of reaching such women as a critical area of focus, regardless of temporary disruptions. Funding: This study was supported by funding from the National Cancer Institute (U01CA199334). The contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the National Cancer Institute. Megan A Smith receives salary support from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia (APP1159491) and Cancer Institute NSW (ECF181561). Matejka Rebolj is funded by Cancer Research UK (reference: C8162/A27047). James O'Mahony is funded by Ireland's Health Research Board (EIA2017054). Karen Canfell receives salary support from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia (APP1194679). Emily A. Burger receives salary support from the Norwegian Cancer Society.

National experience in the first two years of primary human papillomavirus (HPV) cervical screening in an HPV vaccinated population in Australia: observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To review the first two years of the primary human papillomavirus (HPV) cervical screening programme in an HPV vaccinated population. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: Australia. PARTICIPANTS: 3 745 318 women with a primary HPV test between 1 December 2017 and 31 December 2019; most women aged <40 years had previously been offered vaccination against HPV16 and HPV18. INTERVENTIONS: Primary HPV screening with referral if HPV16 or HPV18 (HPV16/18) positive and triage with liquid based cytology testing (threshold atypical squamous cells-cannot exclude high grade squamous intraepithelial lesion) for women who were positive for high risk HPV types other than 16/18. A 12 month follow-up HPV test was recommended in triaged women with a negative or low grade cytology result, with referral if they tested positive for any high risk HPV type at follow-up. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportion of women who had attended for their first HPV screening test, tested positive, and were referred for colposcopy; and short term risk of detecting cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 2 or worse, CIN grade 3 or worse, or cancer. RESULTS: 54.6% (n=3 507 281) of an estimated 6 428 677 eligible women aged 25-69 had undergone their first HPV test by the end of 2019. Among those attending for routine screening, positivity for HPV16/18 and for HPV types not 16/18 was, respectively, 2.0% and 6.6% in women aged 25-69 (n=3 045 844) and 2.2% and 13.3% in highly vaccinated cohorts of women aged 25-34 (n=768 362). Colposcopy referral (ages 25-69 years) was 3.5%, increasing to an estimated 6.2% after accounting for women who had not yet had a 12 month repeat test. Cervical cancer was detected in 0.98% (456/46 330) of women positive for HPV16/18 at baseline, including 0.32% (89/28 003) of women with HPV16/18 and negative cytology. Women with HPV types not 16/18 and negative or low grade cytology at both baseline and 12 months were at low risk of serious disease (3.4% CIN grade 3 or worse; 0.02% cancer; n=20 019) but estimated to account for 62.0% of referrals for this screening algorithm. CONCLUSIONS: Colposcopy referral thresholds need to consider underlying cancer risk; on this basis, women with HPV16/18 in the first round of HPV screening were found to be at higher risk regardless of cytology result, even in a previously well screened population. Women with HPV types not 16/18 and negative or low grade cytology showed a low risk of serious abnormalities but constitute most referrals and could be managed safely with two rounds of repeat HPV testing rather than one. HPV16/18 driven referrals were low in HPV vaccinated cohorts.

Cancer Incidence in Migrants in Australia: Patterns of Three Infection-Related Cancers.

BACKGROUND: Australia provides an ideal population-base for cancer migration studies because of its multicultural society and high-quality cancer registrations. Among migrant groups there is considerable variability in the incidence of infection-related cancers; thus, the patterns of three such cancers were examined among migrant groups relative to Australian-born residents. METHODS: Using national incidence data for cancers of the stomach, liver, and cervix diagnosed during 2005 to 2014, incidence rates were compared for selected migrant groups with the Australian-born population using incidence rate ratios (IRR), from a negative binomial regression model. RESULTS: Wide variations in incidence between countries/regions of birth were observed for all three cancers (P < 0.0001). The patterns were similar for cancers of the stomach and liver, in that migrants from countries/regions with higher incidence rates maintained an increased risk in Australia, with the highest being among South American migrants (IRR = 2.35) for stomach cancer and among Vietnamese migrants (5.44) for liver cancer. In contrast, incidence rates of cervical cancer were lower for many migrant groups, with women from Southern Asia (0.39) and North Africa (0.42) having the lowest rates. The rate of cervical cancer was higher in migrants from New Zealand, Philippines, and Polynesia. CONCLUSIONS: Several Australian migrant groups were found to experience a disproportionate burden of infection-related cancers; further studies of associated risk factors may inform the design of effective interventions to mediate these disparities. IMPACT: By identifying these migrant groups, it is hoped that these results will motivate and inform prevention or early detection activities for these migrant groups. See related commentary Dee and Gomez, p. 1251.

Oral HPV Infection among Indigenous Australians; Incidence, Persistence, and Clearance at 12-Month Follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Persistent oral human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is a risk factor for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). Indigenous Australians have a higher rate of OPSCC than non-Indigenous Australians. Risk factors for oral HPV persistence among Indigenous Australians are poorly understood. METHODS: Participants provided information on sociodemographic characteristics, health-related behaviors including tobacco and alcohol use, and sexual history. Participants additionally provided saliva samples for microbial genotyping. Negative log binomial regression models were used to evaluate associations of sociodemographic, health behavior, and sexual behavior indicators on incident, persistent, and cleared oral HPV infection at 12-month follow-up. Estimates were quantified as rate ratios (RR). RESULTS: Of the 1,011 participants recruited at baseline, 911 provided saliva samples that were ß-globin positive (a DNA integrity check), with 321 (35.3%) testing positive for any oral HPV infection. At 12-month follow up, saliva samples were obtained from 743 of the original 1,011 participants (73.5%). Among the 584 participants who provided ß-globin-positive saliva samples at baseline and 12-month follow-up, 24 (42.6%) had no oral HPV infection at both time points, 130 (22.2%) had new (incident) oral HPV infection at 12 months, 130 (22.2%) had persistent oral HPV infection (i.e., present at both baseline and 12 months), and 75 (12.8%) had oral HPV infection clearance from baseline to 12 months. Age of first giving oral sex and unsafe (unprotected) oral sexual behaviors were significantly associated with incidence; rural location of residence and ever received oral sex were significantly associated with persistence; and, rural location of residence and ever received oral sex were significantly associated with clearance of oral HPV infection. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of oral HPV infection at both baseline and 12-month follow-up was high. Factors associated with persistence and clearance of oral HPV infections included location of residence and unsafe oral sexual behaviors. IMPACT: There are currently no studies available which have assessed oral HPV infection incidence, persistence, and clearance amongst Indigenous populations in Australia or even at a global level. The study has been able to identify risk factors associated with potential malignant changes in the oropharynx among Indigenous Australians.

Impact of disruptions and recovery for established cervical screening programs across a range of high-income country program designs, using COVID-19 as an example: A modelled analysis.

COVID-19 has disrupted cervical screening in several countries, due to a range of policy-, health-service and participant-related factors. Using three well-established models of cervical cancer natural history adapted to simulate screening across four countries, we compared the impact of a range of standardised screening disruption scenarios in four countries that vary in their cervical cancer prevention programs. All scenarios assumed a 6- or 12-month disruption followed by a rapid catch-up of missed screens. Cervical screening disruptions could increase cervical cancer cases by up to 5-6%. In all settings, more than 60% of the excess cancer burden due to disruptions are likely to have occurred in women aged less than 50 years in 2020, including settings where women in their 30s have previously been offered HPV vaccination. Approximately 15-30% of cancers predicted to result from disruptions could be prevented by maintaining colposcopy and precancer treatment services during any disruption period. Disruptions to primary screening had greater adverse effects in situations where women due to attend for screening in 2020 had cytology (vs. HPV) as their previous primary test. Rapid catch-up would dramatically increase demand for HPV tests in 2021, which it may not be feasible to meet because of competing demands on the testing machines and reagents due to COVID tests. These findings can inform future prioritisation strategies for catch-up that balance potential constraints on resourcing with clinical need.

Cervical screening during the COVID-19 pandemic: optimising recovery strategies.

Disruptions to cancer screening services have been experienced in most settings as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ideally, programmes would resolve backlogs by temporarily expanding capacity; however, in practice, this is often not possible. We aim to inform the deliberations of decision makers in high-income settings regarding their cervical cancer screening policy response. We caution against performance measures that rely solely on restoring testing volumes to pre-pandemic levels because they will be less effective at mitigating excess cancer diagnoses than will targeted measures. These measures might exacerbate pre-existing inequalities in accessing cervical screening by disregarding the risk profile of the individuals attending. Modelling of cervical screening outcomes before and during the pandemic supports risk-based strategies as the most effective way for screening services to recover. The degree to which screening is organised will determine the feasibility of deploying some risk-based strategies, but implementation of age-based risk stratification should be universally feasible.