Differentiating viral and bacterial infections: A machine learning model based on routine blood test values.

The growing threat of antibiotic resistance necessitates accurate differentiation between bacterial and viral infections for proper antibiotic administration. In this study, a Virus vs. Bacteria machine learning model was developed to distinguish between these infection types using 16 routine blood test results, C-reactive protein concentration (CRP), biological sex, and age. With a dataset of 44,120 cases from a single medical center, the model achieved an accuracy of 82.2 %, a sensitivity of 79.7 %, a specificity of 84.5 %, a Brier score of 0.129, and an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.905, outperforming a CRP-based decision rule. Notably, the machine learning model enhanced accuracy within the CRP range of 10-40 mg/L, a range where CRP alone is less informative. These results highlight the advantage of integrating multiple blood parameters in diagnostics. The "Virus vs. Bacteria" model paves the way for advanced diagnostic tools, leveraging machine learning to optimize infection management.

Disease Progression of Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy: Modeling Using Machine Learning.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disorders in general are responsible for 30% of deaths worldwide. Among them, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a genetic cardiac disease that is present in about 1 of 500 young adults and can cause sudden cardiac death (SCD). OBJECTIVE: Although the current state-of-the-art methods model the risk of SCD for patients, to the best of our knowledge, no methods are available for modeling the patient's clinical status up to 10 years ahead. In this paper, we propose a novel machine learning (ML)-based tool for predicting disease progression for patients diagnosed with HCM in terms of adverse remodeling of the heart during a 10-year period. METHODS: The method consisted of 6 predictive regression models that independently predict future values of 6 clinical characteristics: left atrial size, left atrial volume, left ventricular ejection fraction, New York Heart Association functional classification, left ventricular internal diastolic diameter, and left ventricular internal systolic diameter. We supplemented each prediction with the explanation that is generated using the Shapley additive explanation method. RESULTS: The final experiments showed that predictive error is lower on 5 of the 6 constructed models in comparison to experts (on average, by 0.34) or a consortium of experts (on average, by 0.22). The experiments revealed that semisupervised learning and the artificial data from virtual patients help improve predictive accuracies. The best-performing random forest model improved R2 from 0.3 to 0.6. CONCLUSIONS: By engaging medical experts to provide interpretation and validation of the results, we determined the models' favorable performance compared to the performance of experts for 5 of 6 targets.

A machine learning-based risk stratification model for ventricular tachycardia and heart failure in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence are emerging as important components of precision medicine that enhance diagnosis and risk stratification. Risk stratification tools for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) exist, but they are based on traditional statistical methods. The aim was to develop a novel machine learning risk stratification tool for the prediction of 5-year risk in HCM. The goal was to determine if its predictive accuracy is higher than the accuracy of the state-of-the-art tools. METHOD: Data from a total of 2302 patients were used. The data were comprised of demographic characteristics, genetic data, clinical investigations, medications, and disease-related events. Four classification models were applied to model the risk level, and their decisions were explained using the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) method. Unwanted cardiac events were defined as sustained ventricular tachycardia occurrence (VT), heart failure (HF), ICD activation, sudden cardiac death (SCD), cardiac death, and all-cause death. RESULTS: The proposed machine learning approach outperformed the similar existing risk-stratification models for SCD, cardiac death, and all-cause death risk-stratification: it achieved higher AUC by 17%, 9%, and 1%, respectively. The boosted trees achieved the best performing AUC of 0.82. The resulting model most accurately predicts VT, HF, and ICD with AUCs of 0.90, 0.88, and 0.87, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed risk-stratification model demonstrates high accuracy in predicting events in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. The use of a machine-learning risk stratification model may improve patient management, clinical practice, and outcomes in general.

A computational pipeline for data augmentation towards the improvement of disease classification and risk stratification models: A case study in two clinical domains.

Virtual population generation is an emerging field in data science with numerous applications in healthcare towards the augmentation of clinical research databases with significant lack of population size. However, the impact of data augmentation on the development of AI (artificial intelligence) models to address clinical unmet needs has not yet been investigated. In this work, we assess whether the aggregation of real with virtual patient data can improve the performance of the existing risk stratification and disease classification models in two rare clinical domains, namely the primary Sjögren's Syndrome (pSS) and the hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), for the first time in the literature. To do so, multivariate approaches, such as, the multivariate normal distribution (MVND), and straightforward ones, such as, the Bayesian networks, the artificial neural networks (ANNs), and the tree ensembles are compared against their performance towards the generation of high-quality virtual data. Both boosting and bagging algorithms, such as, the Gradient boosting trees (XGBoost), the AdaBoost and the Random Forests (RFs) were trained on the augmented data to evaluate the performance improvement for lymphoma classification and HCM risk stratification. Our results revealed the favorable performance of the tree ensemble generators, in both domains, yielding virtual data with goodness-of-fit 0.021 and KL-divergence 0.029 in pSS and 0.029, 0.027 in HCM, respectively. The application of the XGBoost on the augmented data revealed an increase by 10.9% in accuracy, 10.7% in sensitivity, 11.5% in specificity for lymphoma classification and 16.1% in accuracy, 16.9% in sensitivity, 13.7% in specificity in HCM risk stratification.