Universal testing for hepatitis B and hepatitis C in the emergency department: a cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis of two urban hospitals in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have shown the effectiveness of testing for hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C (HCV) in emergency departments (ED), due to the elevated prevalence amongst attendees. The aim of this study was to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of universal opt-out HBV and HCV testing in EDs based on 2 long-term studies of the real-world effectiveness of testing in 2 large ED's in the UK. METHODS: A Markov model was used to evaluate ED-based HBV and HCV testing versus no ED testing, in addition to current testing practice. The two EDs had a HBV HBsAg prevalence of 0.5-0.9% and an HCV RNA prevalence of 0.9-1.0%. The analysis was performed from a UK health service perspective, over a lifetime time horizon. Costs are reported in British pounds (GBP), and outcomes as quality adjusted life years (QALYs), with both discounted at 3.5% per year. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) are calculated as costs per QALY gained. A willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000/QALY was used. The cost-effectiveness was estimated for both infections, in both ED's. RESULTS: HBV and HCV testing were highly cost-effective in both settings, with ICERs ranging from £7,177 to £12,387 per QALY gained. In probabilistic analyses, HBV testing was 89-94% likely to be cost-effective at the threshold, while HCV testing was 94-100% likely to be cost-effective, across both settings. In deterministic sensitivity analyses, testing remained cost-effective in both locations at ≥ 0.25% HBsAg prevalence, and ≥ 0.49% HCV RNA prevalence. This is much lower than the prevalence observed in the two EDs included in this study. CONCLUSIONS: HBV and HCV testing in urban EDs is highly cost-effective in the UK, and can be cost-effective at relatively low prevalence. These results should be reflected in UK and European hepatitis testing guidelines.

Real-world clinical effectiveness and sustainability of universal bloodborne virus testing in an urban emergency department in the UK.

Innovative testing approaches and care pathways are required to meet HIV, hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C (HCV) elimination goals. Routine testing for blood-borne viruses (BBVs) within emergency departments (EDs) is suggested by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control but there is a paucity of supporting evidence. We evaluated the introduction of routine BBV testing in EDs at a large teaching hospital in northern England. In October 2018, we modified the electronic laboratory ordering system to reflex opt-out HIV, HBV and HCV testing for all ED attendees aged 16-65 years who had a routine blood test for urea and electrolytes (U&Es). Linkage to care (LTC) was attempted for newly diagnosed patients, those never referred and those who had previously disengaged from care. The project operated for 18 months, here we present evaluation of the initial nine months (2 October 2018-1 July 2019). We analysed testing uptake, BBV seropositivity, LTC and treatment initiation within six months post-diagnosis. Over 9 months, 17,026/28,178 (60.4%) ED attendees who had U&Es performed were tested for ≥ 1 BBV. 299 active BBV infections were identified: 70 HIV Ab/Ag-positive (0.4% seroprevalence), 73 HBsAg-positive (0.4%) and 156 HCV RNA-positive (1.0%). Only 24.3% (17/70) HIV Ab/Ag-positive individuals required LTC, compared to 94.9% (148/156) HCV RNA-positive and 53.4% (39/73) HBsAg-positive individuals. LTC was successful in 94.1% (16/17) HIV Ab/Ag-positive and 69.3% (27/39) HBsAg-positive individuals. However, at 6 months LTC was just 39.2% (58/148) for HCV RNA-positive individuals, with 64% (37/58) of these commencing treatment. Universal opt-out ED BBV testing proved feasible and effective in identifying active BBV infections, especially among marginalised populations with reduced healthcare access. Our integrated approach achieved good LTC rates although further service development is necessary, particularly for HCV RNA-positive people who inject drugs.

Ebola Virus Glycoprotein IgG Seroprevalence in Community Previously Affected by Ebola, Sierra Leone.

We explored the association of Ebola virus antibody seropositivity and concentration with potential risk factors for infection. Among 1,282 adults and children from a community affected by the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone, 8% were seropositive for virus antibodies but never experienced disease symptoms. Antibody concentration increased with age.

Safety and immunogenicity of the two-dose heterologous Ad26.ZEBOV and MVA-BN-Filo Ebola vaccine regimen in children in Sierra Leone: a randomised, double-blind, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Children account for a substantial proportion of cases and deaths from Ebola virus disease. We aimed to assess the safety and immunogenicity of a two-dose heterologous vaccine regimen, comprising the adenovirus type 26 vector-based vaccine encoding the Ebola virus glycoprotein (Ad26.ZEBOV) and the modified vaccinia Ankara vector-based vaccine, encoding glycoproteins from the Ebola virus, Sudan virus, and Marburg virus, and the nucleoprotein from the Tai Forest virus (MVA-BN-Filo), in a paediatric population in Sierra Leone. METHODS: This randomised, double-blind, controlled trial was done at three clinics in Kambia district, Sierra Leone. Healthy children and adolescents aged 1-17 years were enrolled in three age cohorts (12-17 years, 4-11 years, and 1-3 years) and randomly assigned (3:1), via computer-generated block randomisation (block size of eight), to receive an intramuscular injection of either Ad26.ZEBOV (5 × 1010 viral particles; first dose) followed by MVA-BN-Filo (1 × 108 infectious units; second dose) on day 57 (Ebola vaccine group), or a single dose of meningococcal quadrivalent (serogroups A, C, W135, and Y) conjugate vaccine (MenACWY; first dose) followed by placebo (second dose) on day 57 (control group). Study team personnel (except for those with primary responsibility for study vaccine preparation), participants, and their parents or guardians were masked to study vaccine allocation. The primary outcome was safety, measured as the occurrence of solicited local and systemic adverse symptoms during 7 days after each vaccination, unsolicited systemic adverse events during 28 days after each vaccination, abnormal laboratory results during the study period, and serious adverse events or immediate reportable events throughout the study period. The secondary outcome was immunogenicity (humoral immune response), measured as the concentration of Ebola virus glycoprotein-specific binding antibodies at 21 days after the second dose. The primary outcome was assessed in all participants who had received at least one dose of study vaccine and had available reactogenicity data, and immunogenicity was assessed in all participants who had received both vaccinations within the protocol-defined time window, had at least one evaluable post-vaccination sample, and had no major protocol deviations that could have influenced the immune response. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02509494. FINDINGS: From April 4, 2017, to July 5, 2018, 576 eligible children or adolescents (192 in each of the three age cohorts) were enrolled and randomly assigned. The most common solicited local adverse event during the 7 days after the first and second dose was injection-site pain in all age groups, with frequencies ranging from 0% (none of 48) of children aged 1-3 years after placebo injection to 21% (30 of 144) of children aged 4-11 years after Ad26.ZEBOV vaccination. The most frequently observed solicited systemic adverse event during the 7 days was headache in the 12-17 years and 4-11 years age cohorts after the first and second dose, and pyrexia in the 1-3 years age cohort after the first and second dose. The most frequent unsolicited adverse event after the first and second dose vaccinations was malaria in all age cohorts, irrespective of the vaccine types. Following vaccination with MenACWY, severe thrombocytopaenia was observed in one participant aged 3 years. No other clinically significant laboratory abnormalities were observed in other study participants, and no serious adverse events related to the Ebola vaccine regimen were reported. There were no treatment-related deaths. Ebola virus glycoprotein-specific binding antibody responses at 21 days after the second dose of the Ebola virus vaccine regimen were observed in 131 (98%) of 134 children aged 12-17 years (9929 ELISA units [EU]/mL [95% CI 8172-12 064]), in 119 (99%) of 120 aged 4-11 years (10 212 EU/mL [8419-12 388]), and in 118 (98%) of 121 aged 1-3 years (22 568 EU/mL [18 426-27 642]). INTERPRETATION: The Ad26.ZEBOV and MVA-BN-Filo Ebola vaccine regimen was well tolerated with no safety concerns in children aged 1-17 years, and induced robust humoral immune responses, suggesting suitability of this regimen for Ebola virus disease prophylaxis in children. FUNDING: Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking and Janssen Vaccines & Prevention BV.

Safety and long-term immunogenicity of the two-dose heterologous Ad26.ZEBOV and MVA-BN-Filo Ebola vaccine regimen in adults in Sierra Leone: a combined open-label, non-randomised stage 1, and a randomised, double-blind, controlled stage 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: The Ebola epidemics in west Africa and the Democratic Republic of the Congo highlight an urgent need for safe and effective vaccines to prevent Ebola virus disease. We aimed to assess the safety and long-term immunogenicity of a two-dose heterologous vaccine regimen, comprising the adenovirus type 26 vector-based vaccine encoding the Ebola virus glycoprotein (Ad26.ZEBOV) and the modified vaccinia Ankara vector-based vaccine, encoding glycoproteins from Ebola virus, Sudan virus, and Marburg virus, and the nucleoprotein from the Tai Forest virus (MVA-BN-Filo), in Sierra Leone, a country previously affected by Ebola. METHODS: The trial comprised two stages: an open-label, non-randomised stage 1, and a randomised, double-blind, controlled stage 2. The study was done at three clinics in Kambia district, Sierra Leone. In stage 1, healthy adults (aged ≥18 years) residing in or near Kambia district, received an intramuscular injection of Ad26.ZEBOV (5 × 1010 viral particles) on day 1 (first dose) followed by an intramuscular injection of MVA-BN-Filo (1 × 108 infectious units) on day 57 (second dose). An Ad26.ZEBOV booster vaccination was offered at 2 years after the first dose to stage 1 participants. The eligibility criteria for adult participants in stage 2 were consistent with stage 1 eligibility criteria. Stage 2 participants were randomly assigned (3:1), by computer-generated block randomisation (block size of eight) via an interactive web-response system, to receive either the Ebola vaccine regimen (Ad26.ZEBOV followed by MVA-BN-Filo) or an intramuscular injection of a single dose of meningococcal quadrivalent (serogroups A, C, W135, and Y) conjugate vaccine (MenACWY; first dose) followed by placebo on day 57 (second dose; control group). Study team personnel, except those with primary responsibility for study vaccine preparation, and participants were masked to study vaccine allocation. The primary outcome was the safety of the Ad26.ZEBOV and MVA-BN-Filo vaccine regimen, which was assessed in all participants who had received at least one dose of study vaccine. Safety was assessed as solicited local and systemic adverse events occurring in the first 7 days after each vaccination, unsolicited adverse events occurring in the first 28 days after each vaccination, and serious adverse events or immediate reportable events occurring up to each participant's last study visit. Secondary outcomes were to assess Ebola virus glycoprotein-specific binding antibody responses at 21 days after the second vaccine in a per-protocol set of participants (ie, those who had received both vaccinations within the protocol-defined time window, had at least one evaluable post-vaccination sample, and had no major protocol deviations that could have influenced the immune response) and to assess the safety and tolerability of the Ad26.ZEBOV booster vaccination in stage 1 participants who had received the booster dose. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02509494. FINDINGS: Between Sept 30, 2015, and Oct 19, 2016, 443 participants (43 in stage 1 and 400 in stage 2) were enrolled; 341 participants assigned to receive the Ad26.ZEBOV and MVA-BN-Filo regimen and 102 participants assigned to receive the MenACWY and placebo regimen received at least one dose of study vaccine. Both regimens were well tolerated with no safety concerns. In stage 1, solicited local adverse events (mostly mild or moderate injection-site pain) were reported in 12 (28%) of 43 participants after Ad26.ZEBOV vaccination and in six (14%) participants after MVA-BN-Filo vaccination. In stage 2, solicited local adverse events were reported in 51 (17%) of 298 participants after Ad26.ZEBOV vaccination, in 58 (24%) of 246 after MVA-BN-Filo vaccination, in 17 (17%) of 102 after MenACWY vaccination, and in eight (9%) of 86 after placebo injection. In stage 1, solicited systemic adverse events were reported in 18 (42%) of 43 participants after Ad26.ZEBOV vaccination and in 17 (40%) after MVA-BN-Filo vaccination. In stage 2, solicited systemic adverse events were reported in 161 (54%) of 298 participants after Ad26.ZEBOV vaccination, in 107 (43%) of 246 after MVA-BN-Filo vaccination, in 51 (50%) of 102 after MenACWY vaccination, and in 39 (45%) of 86 after placebo injection. Solicited systemic adverse events in both stage 1 and 2 participants included mostly mild or moderate headache, myalgia, fatigue, and arthralgia. The most frequent unsolicited adverse event after the first dose was headache in stage 1 and malaria in stage 2. Malaria was the most frequent unsolicited adverse event after the second dose in both stage 1 and 2. No serious adverse event was considered related to the study vaccine, and no immediate reportable events were observed. In stage 1, the safety profile after the booster vaccination was not notably different to that observed after the first dose. Vaccine-induced humoral immune responses were observed in 41 (98%) of 42 stage 1 participants (geometric mean binding antibody concentration 4784 ELISA units [EU]/mL [95% CI 3736-6125]) and in 176 (98%) of 179 stage 2 participants (3810 EU/mL [3312-4383]) at 21 days after the second vaccination. INTERPRETATION: The Ad26.ZEBOV and MVA-BN-Filo vaccine regimen was well tolerated and immunogenic, with persistent humoral immune responses. These data support the use of this vaccine regimen for Ebola virus disease prophylaxis in adults. FUNDING: Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking and Janssen Vaccines & Prevention BV.

An outbreak of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157:H7 linked to a mud-based obstacle course, England, August 2018.

In August 2018, Public Health England (PHE) was made aware of five probable cases of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157:H7 among individuals reporting participation in a mud-based obstacle race. An additional four cases, identified via routine whole-genome sequencing, were subsequently linked to the same event. Two of the nine cases were due to secondary household transmission. Despite an agreement between the event organizers and the local authority, to ensure that all livestock were removed from the site 28 days before the event, sheep were observed grazing on some of the routes taken by the runners 2 days prior to the race taking place. A retrospective review of incidents reported to PHE between 2015 and 2018 identified 41 cases of gastroenteritis associated with muddy assault course events. Of these, 25 cases were due to infection with STEC O157:H7, of which all but one were associated with outbreaks. Due to the environment in which such events take place, it is impossible to entirely remove the risk of exposure to potentially pathogenic zoonoses. However, race organizers should ensure that livestock are removed from the course 28 days before the event. They should also ensure that participants are made aware of the risk of contracting gastrointestinal disease from the environment, and to stress the importance of hand hygiene post-event and the risk of secondary transmission, particularly to children who are at risk of developing haemolytic uraemic syndrome.

A cluster of nosocomial Lassa fever cases in a tertiary health facility in Nigeria: Description and lessons learned, 2018.

BACKGROUND: Lassa fever is an acute viral haemorrhagic disease endemic in Nigeria. The 2018 Lassa fever outbreak in Nigeria was unprecedented, with 8% of all cases occurring among healthcare workers (HCWs). A disproportionately high number of these infections occurred in HCWs working in a tertiary health facility in Nigeria. This paper describes the cluster of Lassa fever infections among HCWs in a treatment centre and the lessons learnt. METHODS: We analysed clinical, epidemiological and laboratory data from surveillance and laboratory records kept during the 2018 outbreak. Interviews were conducted with surviving HCWs using a questionnaire developed specifically for the investigation of Lassa fever infections in HCWs. Descriptive analysis of the data was performed in Microsoft excel. RESULTS: The index case was a 15-year-old male who presented at the health facility with fever and uncontrolled nasopharyngeal bleeding, following a recent uvulectomy by a traditional healer. Overall, 16 HCWs were affected (15 confirmed and 1 probable) with five deaths (CFR-31.6%). Of the 15 confirmed cases, five (33.3%) were asymptomatic. Nine HCWs were direct contacts of the index case; the remaining six HCWs had no direct contact with the index case. HCW interviews identified a low index of suspicion for Lassa fever leading to inadequate infection prevention and control (IPC) practices as possible contributing factors to nosocomial transmission. CONCLUSION: Maintaining a high index of suspicion for Lassa fever in all patients, especially in endemic areas, is essential in adhering to adequate IPC practices in health facilities in order to prevent nosocomial transmission of Lassa fever among HCWs. There is a need to continually train and sensitise HCWs on strict adherence to IPC measures while providing care, irrespective of a patient's provisional diagnosis.

EBOVAC-Salone: Lessons learned from implementing an Ebola vaccine trial in an Ebola-affected country.

Background/aims During the 2014-2016 West African Ebola epidemic, clinical trials were fast-tracked in order to identify prophylactic vaccines and experimental treatments that might be useful in preventing or treating Ebola. These trials included the ongoing EBOVAC-Salone study, which was established and implemented in Sierra Leone to assess the safety and immunogenicity of the Ad26.ZEBOV/MVA-BN-Filo prime-boost Ebola vaccine regimen. Methods This article describes the experiences of the EBOVAC-Salone research team in setting up and implementing the trial, and provides recommendations for research teams aiming to conduct clinical trials in future outbreak situations. Results Establishing a clinical trial during an outbreak brought some unique challenges, including those related to trial design and the regulatory environment, operational issues, and community engagement. The situation was further complicated by the weak infrastructure and limited experience of clinical trials in Sierra Leone. However, operating in an outbreak context also brought some benefits to the research team, including strong stakeholder support. The EBOVAC-Salone study recruited participants both during and after the outbreak, leading to additional challenges to trial implementation during the post-outbreak transition. Conclusion Many lessons have been learned about setting up and implementing a clinical trial during a devastating Ebola epidemic, and some of the experiences of the EBOVAC-Salone team were mirrored by those of other researchers operating in the region. Common to several of these research groups is a recommendation that research should be more closely incorporated into outbreak response planning, which could expedite the establishment of timely and appropriate research projects. We recommend that the lessons learned by researchers during the West African Ebola epidemic are built into programmes and strategies to improve the responses to future epidemics, wherever they occur.

"We are the heroes because we are ready to die for this country": Participants' decision-making and grounded ethics in an Ebola vaccine clinical trial.

The 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic presented a challenging setting in which to carry out clinical trials. This paper reports findings from social science research carried out in Kambia, Northern Sierra Leone during first year of an Ebola vaccine trial (August 2015-July 2016). The social science team collected data through ethnographic observation, 42 in depth interviews; 4 life narratives; 200 exit interviews; 31 key informant interviews; and 8 focus group discussions with trial participants and community members not enrolled in the trial. Whilst research often focuses on why people refuse vaccination, we instead explore participant motivations for volunteering for the study, in spite of prevailing anxieties, rumours and mistrust during and after the Ebola outbreak. In so doing the paper contributes to on-going debates about research ethics and community engagement in resource poor contexts, offering reflections from an emergency and post-epidemic setting. We analyse participants' perceptions of the risks and benefits of participations, highlighting the importance of a contextual approach. We focus on four types of motivation: altruism; curiosity and hope; health-seeking; and notions of exchange, and argue for the role of social science in developing grounded research ethics and community engagement strategies that can take into account context and local realities.

Controversial Ebola vaccine trials in Ghana: a thematic analysis of critiques and rebuttals in digital news.

BACKGROUND: Communication is of paramount importance in responding to health crises. We studied the media messages put forth by different stakeholders in two Ebola vaccine trials that became controversial in Ghana. These interactions between health authorities, political actors, and public citizens can offer key lessons for future research. Through an analysis of online media, we analyse stakeholder concerns and incentives, and the phases of the dispute, to understand how the dispute evolved to the point of the trials being suspended, and analyse what steps might have been taken to avert this outcome. METHODS: A web-based system was developed to download and analyse news reports relevant to Ebola vaccine trials. This included monitoring major online newspapers in each country with planned clinical trials, including Ghana. All news articles were downloaded, selecting out those containing variants of the words "Ebola," and "vaccine," which were analysed thematically by a team of three coders. Two types of themes were defined: critiques of the trials and rebuttals in favour of the trials. After reconciling differences between coders' results, the data were visualised and reviewed to describe and interpret the debate. RESULTS: A total of 27,460 articles, published between 1 May and 30 July 2015, were collected from nine different newspapers in Ghana, of which 139 articles contained the keywords and met the inclusion criteria. The final codebook included 27 themes, comprising 16 critiques and 11 rebuttals. After coding and reconciliation, the main critiques (and their associated rebuttals) were selected for in-depth analysis, including statements about the trials being secret (mentioned in 21% of articles), claims that the vaccine trials would cause an Ebola outbreak in Ghana (33%), and the alleged impropriety of the incentives offered to participants (35%). DISCUSSION: Perceptions that the trials were "secret" arose from a combination of premature news reporting and the fact that the trials were prohibited from conducting any publicity before being approved at the time that the story came out, which created an impression of secrecy. Fears about Ebola being spread in Ghana appeared in two forms, the first alleging that scientists would intentionally infect Ghanaians with Ebola in order to test the vaccine, and the second suggesting that the vaccine might give trial participants Ebola as a side-effect - over the course of the debate, the latter became the more prominent of the two variants. The incentives were sometimes criticised for being coercively large, but were much more often criticised for being too small, which may have been related to a misperception that the incentives were meant as compensation for the trials' risks, which were themselves exaggerated. CONCLUSION: The rumours captured through this research indicate the variety of strong emotions drawn out by the trials, highlighting the importance of understanding the emotional and social context of such research. The uncertainty, fear, and distrust associated with the trials draw from the contemporary context of the Ebola outbreak, as well as longstanding historical issues in Ghana. By analysing the debate from its inception, we can see how the controversy unfolded, and identify points of concern that can inform health communication, suggesting that this tool may be valuable in future epidemics and crises.

Power, fairness and trust: understanding and engaging with vaccine trial participants and communities in the setting up the EBOVAC-Salone vaccine trial in Sierra Leone.

BACKGROUND: This paper discusses the establishment of a clinical trial of an Ebola vaccine candidate in Kambia District, Northern Sierra Leone during the epidemic, and analyses the role of social science research in ensuring that lessons from the socio-political context, the recent experience of the Ebola outbreak, and learning from previous clinical trials were incorporated in the development of community engagement strategies. The paper aims to provide a case study of an integrated social science and communications system in the start-up phase of the clinical trial. METHODS: The paper is based on qualitative research methods including ethnographic observation, interviews with trial participants and key stakeholder interviews. RESULTS: Through the case study of EBOVAC Salone, the paper suggests ways in which research can be used to inform communication strategies before and during the setting up of the trial. It explores notions of power, fairness and trust emerging from analysis of the Sierra Leonean context and through ethnographic research, to reflect on three situations in which social scientists and community liaison officers worked together to ensure successful community engagement. Firstly, a section on "power" considers the pitfalls of considering communities as homogeneous and shows the importance of understanding intra-community power dynamics when engaging communities. Secondly, a section on "fairness" shows how local understandings of what is fair can help inform the design of volunteer recruitment strategies. Finally, a section on "trust" highlights how historically rooted rumours can be effectively addressed through active dialogue rather than through an approach focused on correcting misinformation. CONCLUSION: The paper firstly emphasises the value of social science in the setting up of clinical trials, in terms of providing an in depth understanding of context and social dynamics. Secondly, the paper suggests the importance of a close collaboration between research and community engagement to effectively confront political and social dynamics, especially in the context of an epidemic.

Quantitative fetal fibronectin and cervical length to predict preterm birth in asymptomatic women with previous cervical surgery.

BACKGROUND: Quantitative fetal fibronectin testing has demonstrated accuracy for prediction of spontaneous preterm birth in asymptomatic women with a history of preterm birth. Predictive accuracy in women with previous cervical surgery (a potentially different risk mechanism) is not known. OBJECTIVE: We sought to compare the predictive accuracy of cervicovaginal fluid quantitative fetal fibronectin and cervical length testing in asymptomatic women with previous cervical surgery to that in women with 1 previous preterm birth. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a prospective blinded secondary analysis of a larger observational study of cervicovaginal fluid quantitative fetal fibronectin concentration in asymptomatic women measured with a Hologic 10Q system (Hologic, Marlborough, MA). Prediction of spontaneous preterm birth (<30, <34, and <37 weeks) with cervicovaginal fluid quantitative fetal fibronectin concentration in primiparous women who had undergone at least 1 invasive cervical procedure (n = 473) was compared with prediction in women who had previous spontaneous preterm birth, preterm prelabor rupture of membranes, or late miscarriage (n = 821). Relationship with cervical length was explored. RESULTS: The rate of spontaneous preterm birth <34 weeks in the cervical surgery group was 3% compared with 9% in previous spontaneous preterm birth group. Receiver operating characteristic curves comparing quantitative fetal fibronectin for prediction at all 3 gestational end points were comparable between the cervical surgery and previous spontaneous preterm birth groups (34 weeks: area under the curve, 0.78 [95% confidence interval 0.64-0.93] vs 0.71 [95% confidence interval 0.64-0.78]; P = .39). Prediction of spontaneous preterm birth using cervical length compared with quantitative fetal fibronectin for prediction of preterm birth <34 weeks of gestation offered similar prediction (area under the curve, 0.88 [95% confidence interval 0.79-0.96] vs 0.77 [95% confidence interval 0.62-0.92], P = .12 in the cervical surgery group; and 0.77 [95% confidence interval 0.70-0.84] vs 0.74 [95% confidence interval 0.67-0.81], P = .32 in the previous spontaneous preterm birth group). CONCLUSION: Prediction of spontaneous preterm birth using cervicovaginal fluid quantitative fetal fibronectin in asymptomatic women with cervical surgery is valid, and has comparative accuracy to that in women with a history of spontaneous preterm birth.

Deaths, late deaths, and role of infecting dose in Ebola virus disease in Sierra Leone: retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES:  To assess the frequency of fatal recrudescence from Ebola virus disease after discharge from treatment centres, and explore the influence of infecting dose on case fatality rates. DESIGN:  Retrospective cohort study. SETTING:  Western Area, Sierra Leone. PARTICIPANTS:  151 survivors treated for Ebola virus disease at the Kerry Town treatment centre and discharged. Survivors were followed up for a vital status check at four to nine months after discharge, and again at six to 13 months after discharge. Verbal autopsies were conducted for four survivors who had died since discharge (that is, late deaths). Survivors still living in Western Area were interviewed together with their household members. Exposure level to Ebola virus disease was ascertained as a proxy of infecting dose, including for those who died. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:  Risks and causes of late death; case fatality rates; odds ratios of death from Ebola virus disease by age, sex, exposure level, date, occupation, and household risk factors. RESULTS:  Follow-up information was obtained on all 151 survivors of Ebola virus disease, a mean of 10 months after discharge. Four deaths occurred after discharge, all within six weeks: two probably due to late complications, one to prior tuberculosis, and only one after apparent full recovery, giving a maximum estimate of recrudescence leading to death of 0.7%. In these households, 395 people were reported to have had Ebola virus disease, of whom 227 died. A further 53 people fulfilled the case definition for probable disease, of whom 11 died. Therefore, the case fatality rate was 57.5% (227/395) for reported Ebola virus disease, or 53.1% (238/448) including probable disease. Case fatality rates were higher in children aged under 2 years and adults older than 30 years, in larger households, and in infections occurring earlier in the epidemic in Sierra Leone. There was no consistent trend of case fatality rate with exposure level, although increasing exposure increased the risk of Ebola virus disease. CONCLUSIONS:  In this study of survivors in Western Area, Sierra Leone, late recrudescence of severe Ebola virus disease appears to be rare. There was no evidence for an effect of infecting dose (as measured by exposure level) on the severity of disease.

Intimate partner violence and engagement in HIV care and treatment among women: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to estimate the odds of engagement in HIV care and treatment among HIV-positive women reporting intimate partner violence (IPV). DESIGN: We systematically reviewed the literature on the association between IPV and engagement in care. Data sources included searches of electronic databases (PubMed, Web of Science, CINAHL and PsychoInfo), hand searches and citation tracking. METHODS: Two reviewers screened 757 full-text articles, extracted data and independently appraised study quality. Included studies were peer-reviewed and assessed IPV alongside engagement in care outcomes: antiretroviral treatment (ART) use; self-reported ART adherence; viral suppression; retention in HIV care. Odds ratios (ORs) were pooled using random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Thirteen cross-sectional studies among HIV-positive women were included. Measurement of IPV varied, with most studies defining a 'case' as any history of physical and/or sexual IPV. Meta-analysis of five studies showed IPV to be significantly associated with lower ART use [OR 0.79, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.64-0.97]. IPV was associated with poorer self-reported ART adherence in six studies (OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.30-0.75) and lower odds of viral load suppression in seven studies (OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.46-0.90). Lack of longitudinal data and measurement considerations should temper interpretation of these results. CONCLUSION: IPV is associated with lower ART use, half the odds of self-reported ART adherence and significantly worsened viral suppression among women. To ensure the health of HIV-positive women, it is essential for clinical programmes to address conditions that impact engagement in care and treatment. IPV is one such condition, and its association with declines in ART use and adherence requires urgent attention.

Temporal Changes in Ebola Transmission in Sierra Leone and Implications for Control Requirements: a Real-time Modelling Study.

BACKGROUND: Between August and November 2014, the incidence of Ebola virus disease (EVD) rose dramatically in several districts of Sierra Leone. As a result, the number of cases exceeded the capacity of Ebola holding and treatment centres. During December, additional beds were introduced, and incidence declined in many areas. We aimed to measure patterns of transmission in different regions, and evaluate whether bed capacity is now sufficient to meet future demand. METHODS: We used a mathematical model of EVD infection to estimate how the extent of transmission in the nine worst affected districts of Sierra Leone changed between 10th August 2014 and 18th January 2015. Using the model, we forecast the number of cases that could occur until the end of March 2015, and compared bed requirements with expected future capacity. RESULTS: We found that the reproduction number, R, defined as the average number of secondary cases generated by a typical infectious individual, declined between August and December in all districts. We estimated that R was near the crucial control threshold value of 1 in December. We further estimated that bed capacity has lagged behind demand between August and December for most districts, but as a consequence of the decline in transmission, control measures caught up with the epidemic in early 2015. CONCLUSIONS: EVD incidence has exhibited substantial temporal and geographical variation in Sierra Leone, but our results suggest that the epidemic may have now peaked in Sierra Leone, and that current bed capacity appears to be sufficient to keep the epidemic under-control in most districts.

The use and accuracy of manual and electronic gestational age calculators.

OBJECTIVES: The accuracy of gestational age (GA) wheels has been shown to be poor, yet they remain commonly used. We surveyed their use within our institution and determined the inter-observer and inter-device variability of a range of devices. We have devised a procedure for validating device accuracy. METHODS: All clinicians within our maternity unit were asked their most recent method of calculating GA and whether they felt this was accurate to within one day. Ten clinicians assessed 16 devices: 14 manual, 2 electronic. Five dates represented the last menstrual period (LMP) and were used to calculate the estimated date of delivery (EDD) of the 5 dates for each device compared to a 280 day control. ANOVA was used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: 73% last used a manual device to calculate GA. Seventy-two per cent believed their method was accurate. There was a significant bias (difference in the mean) between device-calculated and control EDD for all manual devices except one, with individual differences of up to 4 days. Variability altered throughout the year. Electronic devices consistently had no error. Inter-observer variability was insignificant. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians should be aware of the inaccuracy of manual devices. Electronic devices are recommended. Manual devices should be validated before use by comparing the device-calculated EDD with a 280 day control at five points throughout the year.

The use of fetal fibronectin testing in the management of a triplet pregnancy with a short cervix.

Following in vitro fertilisation treatment, a 40-year-old woman was expecting trichorionic, triamniotic triplets. Her cervix shortened from 34 mm at 16(+5) weeks to 16 mm at 20(+5) weeks, a risk reported with 100% delivery before 28 weeks gestation. She was admitted to hospital and at 24(+1) weeks was given corticosteroids. From 21(+5) weeks her cervical length remained below 16 mm. However, weekly fetal fibronectin (fFN) tests were negative from 22(+5) weeks to delivery at 35(+5) weeks. This, along with an absence of symptoms, gave her doctors confidence to manage her as an outpatient from 28 weeks. At 33(+5) weeks she was diagnosed as having pre-eclampsia and three live births were delivered by prelabour caesarean section. Prior to delivery her cervical length was 10 mm and fFN test remained negative. There are no reports of outcome following a negative fFN with a short cervix in triplet pregnancies but fFN could be a useful tool, in conjunction with cervical length measurement, in the management of triplets.