Transcranial photobiomodulation in children aged 2-6 years: a randomized sham-controlled clinical trial assessing safety, efficacy, and impact on autism spectrum disorder symptoms and brain electrophysiology.

Background: Small pilot studies have suggested that transcranial photobiomodulation (tPBM) could help reduce symptoms of neurological conditions, such as depression, traumatic brain injury, and autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Objective: To examine the impact of tPBM on the symptoms of ASD in children aged two to six years. Method: We conducted a randomized, sham-controlled clinical trial involving thirty children aged two to six years with a prior diagnosis of ASD. We delivered pulses of near-infrared light (40 Hz, 850 nm) noninvasively to selected brain areas twice a week for eight weeks, using an investigational medical device designed for this purpose (Cognilum™, JelikaLite Corp., New York, United States). We used the Childhood Autism Rating Scale (CARS, 2nd Edition) to assess and compare the ASD symptoms of participants before and after the treatment course. We collected electroencephalogram (EEG) data during each session from those participants who tolerated wearing the EEG cap. Results: The difference in the change in CARS scores between the two groups was 7.23 (95% CI 2.357 to 12.107, p = 0.011). Seventeen of the thirty participants completed at least two EEGs and time-dependent trends were detected. In addition, an interaction between Active versus Sham and Scaled Time was observed in delta power (Coefficient = 7.521, 95% CI -0.517 to 15.559, p = 0.07) and theta power (Coefficient = -8.287, 95% CI -17.199 to 0.626, p = 0.07), indicating a potential trend towards a greater reduction in delta power and an increase in theta power over time with treatment in the Active group, compared to the Sham group. Furthermore, there was a significant difference in the condition (Treatment vs. Sham) in the power of theta waves (net_theta) (Coefficient = 9.547, 95% CI 0.027 to 19.067, p = 0.049). No moderate or severe side effects or adverse effects were reported or observed during the trial. Conclusion: These results indicate that tPBM may be a safe and effective treatment for ASD and should be studied in more depth in larger studies.Clinical trial registration: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04660552, identifier NCT04660552.

Warmer temperatures trigger insecticide-associated pest outbreaks.

BACKGROUND: Rising global temperatures are associated with emerging insect pests, reflecting earlier and longer insect activity, faster development, more generations per year and changing species' ranges. Insecticides are often the first tools available to manage these new threats. In the southeastern US, sweet potato whitefly (Bemisia tabaci) has recently become the major threat to vegetable production. We used data from a multi-year, regional whitefly monitoring network to search for climate, land use, and management correlates of whitefly activity. RESULTS: Strikingly, whiteflies were detected earlier and grew more abundant in landscapes with greater insecticide use, but only when temperatures were also relatively warm. Whitefly outbreaks in hotter conditions were not associated with specific active ingredients used to suppress whiteflies, which would be consistent with a regional disruption of biocontrol following sprays for other pests. In addition, peak whitefly detections occurred earlier in areas with more vegetable production, but later with more cotton production, consistent with whiteflies moving among crops. CONCLUSION: Altogether, our findings suggest possible links between warmer temperatures, more abundant pests, and frequent insecticide applications disrupting biological control, though this remains to be explicitly demonstrated. Climate-initiated pesticide treadmills of this type may become an increasingly common driver of emerging pest outbreaks as global change accelerates. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Prevalence and molecular characterization of Salmonella isolated from wild birds in fresh produce environments.

Wild birds pose a difficult food safety risk to manage because they can avoid traditional wildlife mitigation strategies, such as fences. Birds often use agricultural fields and structures as foraging and nesting areas, which can lead to defecation on crops and subsequent transfer of foodborne pathogens. To assess the food safety risk associated with these events, wild bird feces were collected from produce fields across the southeastern United States during the 2021 and 2022 growing seasons. In total 773 fecal samples were collected from 45 farms across Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and Tennessee, and 2.1% (n = 16) of samples were Salmonella-positive. Importantly, 75% of Salmonella were isolated from moist feces, showing reduced Salmonella viability when feces dry out. 16S microbiome analysis showed that presence of culturable Salmonella in moist feces correlated to a higher proportion of the Enterobacteriaceae family. From the Salmonella-positive samples, 62.5% (10/16) contained multi-serovar Salmonella populations. Overall, 13 serovars were detected, including six most commonly attributed to human illness (Enteriditis, Newport, Typhimurium, Infantis, Saintpaul, and Muenchen). PCR screening identified an additional 59 Salmonella-positive fecal samples, which were distributed across moist (n = 44) and dried feces (n = 15). On-farm point counts and molecular identification from fecal samples identified 57 bird species, including for 10 Salmonella-positive fecal samples. Overall, there was a low prevalence of Salmonella in fecal samples, especially in dried feces, and we found no evidence of Salmonella transmission to proximal foliage or produce. Fecal samples collected in farms close together shared highly related isolates by whole genome sequencing and also had highly similar Salmonella populations with comparable relative frequencies of the same serovars, suggesting the birds acquired Salmonella from a common source.

Representing and extending ensembles of parsimonious evolutionary histories with a directed acyclic graph.

In many situations, it would be useful to know not just the best phylogenetic tree for a given data set, but the collection of high-quality trees. This goal is typically addressed using Bayesian techniques, however, current Bayesian methods do not scale to large data sets. Furthermore, for large data sets with relatively low signal one cannot even store every good tree individually, especially when the trees are required to be bifurcating. In this paper, we develop a novel object called the "history subpartition directed acyclic graph" (or "history sDAG" for short) that compactly represents an ensemble of trees with labels (e.g. ancestral sequences) mapped onto the internal nodes. The history sDAG can be built efficiently and can also be efficiently trimmed to only represent maximally parsimonious trees. We show that the history sDAG allows us to find many additional equally parsimonious trees, extending combinatorially beyond the ensemble used to construct it. We argue that this object could be useful as the "skeleton" of a more complete uncertainty quantification.

Glucagon-like Peptide-1 Receptor Pathway Attenuates Platelet Activation in Aspirin-Exacerbated Respiratory Disease.

Platelets are key contributors to allergic asthma and aspirin-exacerbated respiratory disease (AERD), an asthma phenotype involving platelet activation and IL-33-dependent mast cell activation. Human platelets express the glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP-1R). GLP-1R agonists decrease lung IL-33 release and airway hyperresponsiveness in mouse asthma models. We hypothesized that GLP-1R agonists reduce platelet activation and downstream platelet-mediated airway inflammation in AERD. GLP-1R expression on murine platelets was assessed using flow cytometry. We tested the effect of the GLP-1R agonist liraglutide on lysine-aspirin (Lys-ASA)-induced changes in airway resistance, and platelet-derived mediator release in a murine AERD model. We conducted a prospective cohort study comparing the effect of pretreatment with liraglutide or vehicle on thromboxane receptor agonist-induced in vitro activation of platelets from patients with AERD and nonasthmatic controls. GLP-1R expression was higher on murine platelets than on leukocytes. A single dose of liraglutide inhibited Lys-ASA-induced increases in airway resistance and decreased markers of platelet activation and recruitment to the lung in AERD-like mice. Liraglutide attenuated thromboxane receptor agonist-induced activation as measured by CXCL7 release in plasma from patients with AERD and CD62P expression in platelets from both patients with AERD (n = 31) and nonasthmatic, healthy controls (n = 11). Liraglutide, a Food and Drug Administration-approved GLP-1R agonist for treatment of type 2 diabetes and obesity, attenuates in vivo platelet activation in an AERD murine model and in vitro activation in human platelets in patients with and without AERD. These data advance the GLP-1R axis as a new target for platelet-mediated inflammation warranting further study in asthma.

Representing and extending ensembles of parsimonious evolutionary histories with a directed acyclic graph.

In many situations, it would be useful to know not just the best phylogenetic tree for a given data set, but the collection of high-quality trees. This goal is typically addressed using Bayesian techniques, however, current Bayesian methods do not scale to large data sets. Furthermore, for large data sets with relatively low signal one cannot even store every good tree individually, especially when the trees are required to be bifurcating. In this paper, we develop a novel object called the "history subpartition directed acyclic graph" (or "history sDAG" for short) that compactly represents an ensemble of trees with labels (e.g. ancestral sequences) mapped onto the internal nodes. The history sDAG can be built efficiently and can also be efficiently trimmed to only represent maximally parsimonious trees. We show that the history sDAG allows us to find many additional equally parsimonious trees, extending combinatorially beyond the ensemble used to construct it. We argue that this object could be useful as the "skeleton" of a more complete uncertainty quantification.

Omnivore diet composition alters parasite resistance and host condition.

Diet composition modulates animals' ability to resist parasites and recover from stress. Broader diet breadths enable omnivores to mount dynamic responses to parasite attack, but little is known about how plant/prey mixing might influence responses to infection. Using omnivorous deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) as a model, we examine how varying plant and prey concentrations in blended diets influence resistance and body condition following infestation by Rocky Mountain wood ticks (Dermacentor andersoni). In two repeated experiments, deer mice fed for 4 weeks on controlled diets that varied in proportions of seeds and insects were then challenged with 50 tick larvae in two sequential infestations. The numbers of ticks successfully feeding on mice declined by 25% and 66% after the first infestation (in the first and second experiments, respectively), reflecting a pattern of acquired resistance, and resistance was strongest when plant/prey ratios were more equally balanced in mouse diets, relative to seed-dominated diets. Diet also dramatically impacted the capacity of mice to cope with tick infestations. Mice fed insect-rich diets lost 15% of their body weight when parasitized by ticks, while mice fed seed-rich diets lost no weight at all. While mounting/maintaining an immune response may be energetically demanding, mice may compensate for parasitism with fat and carbohydrate-rich diets. Altogether, these results suggest that a diverse nutritional landscape may be key in enabling omnivores' resistance and resilience to infection and immune stressors in their environments.

Wind Speed and Landscape Context Mediate Campylobacter Risk among Poultry Reared in Open Environments.

Foodborne pathogens cause over 9 million illnesses in the United States each year, and Campylobacter from chickens is the largest contributor. Rearing poultry outdoors without the use of antibiotics is becoming an increasingly popular style of farming; however, little is understood about how environmental factors and farm management alter pathogen prevalence. Our survey of 27 farms in California, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho, USA, revealed a diversity of management practices used to rear poultry in the open environment. Here, we assess environmental and management factors that impact Campylobacter spp. prevalence in 962 individual chicken fecal samples from 62 flocks over a three-year period. We detected Campylobacter spp. in 250/962 (26.0%) of fecal samples screened, in 69.4% (43/62) of flocks, and on 85.2% (23/27) of farms. We found that Campylobacter spp. prevalence was predicted to increase in poultry on farms with higher average wind speeds in the seven days preceding sampling; on farms embedded in more agricultural landscapes; and in flocks typified by younger birds, more rotations, higher flock densities, and the production of broilers. Collectively, our results suggest that farms in areas with higher wind speeds and more surrounding agriculture face greater risk of Campylobacter spp. introduction into their flocks.

Past and recent farming degrades aquatic insect genetic diversity.

Recent declines in once-common species are triggering concern that an environmental crisis point has been reached. Yet, the lack of long abundance time series data for most species can make it difficult to attribute these changes to anthropogenic causes, and to separate them from normal cycles. Genetic diversity, on the other hand, is sensitive to past and recent environmental changes, and reflects a measure of a populations' potential to adapt to future stressors. Here, we consider whether patterns of genetic diversity among aquatic insects can be linked to historical and recent patterns of land use change. We collated mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) variation for >700 aquatic insect species across the United States, where patterns of agricultural expansion and intensification have been documented since the 1800s. We found that genetic diversity was lowest in regions where cropland was historically (pre-1950) most extensive, suggesting a legacy of past environmental harm. Genetic diversity further declined where cropland has since expanded, even after accounting for climate and sampling effects. Notably though, genetic diversity also appeared to rebound where cropland has diminished. Our study suggests that genetic diversity at the community level can be a powerful tool to infer potential population declines and rebounds over longer time spans than is typically possible with ecological data. For the aquatic insects that we considered, patterns of land use many decades ago appear to have left long-lasting damage to genetic diversity that could threaten evolutionary responses to rapid global change.

Data-driven variational multiscale reduced order modeling of vaginal tissue inflation.

The vagina undergoes large finite deformations and has complex geometry and microstructure, resulting in material and geometric nonlinearities, complicated boundary conditions, and nonhomogeneities within finite element (FE) simulations. These nonlinearities pose a significant challenge for numerical solvers, increasing the computational time by several orders of magnitude. Simplifying assumptions can reduce the computational time significantly, but this usually comes at the expense of simulation accuracy. This study proposed the use of reduced order modeling (ROM) techniques to capture experimentally measured displacement fields of rat vaginal tissue during inflation testing in order to attain both the accuracy of higher-fidelity models and the speed of simpler simulations. The proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) method was used to extract the significant information from FE simulations generated by varying the luminal pressure and the parameters that introduce the anisotropy in the selected constitutive model. A new data-driven (DD) variational multiscale (VMS) ROM framework was extended to obtain the displacement fields of rat vaginal tissue under pressure. For comparison purposes, we also investigated the classical Galerkin ROM (G-ROM). In our numerical study, both the G-ROM and the DD-VMS-ROM decreased the FE computational cost by orders of magnitude without a significant decrease in numerical accuracy. Furthermore, the DD-VMS-ROM improved the G-ROM accuracy at a modest computational overhead. Our numerical investigation showed that ROM has the potential to provide efficient and accurate computational tools to describe vaginal deformations, with the ultimate goal of improving maternal health.

A bipolar taxonomy of adult human brain sulcal morphology related to timing of fetal sulcation and trans-sulcal gene expression gradients.

We developed a computational pipeline (now provided as a resource) for measuring morphological similarity between cortical surface sulci to construct a sulcal phenotype network (SPN) from each magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan in an adult cohort (N=34,725; 45-82 years). Networks estimated from pairwise similarities of 40 sulci on 5 morphological metrics comprised two clusters of sulci, represented also by the bipolar distribution of sulci on a linear-to-complex dimension. Linear sulci were more heritable and typically located in unimodal cortex; complex sulci were less heritable and typically located in heteromodal cortex. Aligning these results with an independent fetal brain MRI cohort (N=228; 21-36 gestational weeks), we found that linear sulci formed earlier, and the earliest and latest-forming sulci had the least between-adult variation. Using high-resolution maps of cortical gene expression, we found that linear sulcation is mechanistically underpinned by trans-sulcal gene expression gradients enriched for developmental processes.

The method of exclusion (still) cannot identify specific mechanisms of cultural inheritance.

The method of exclusion identifies patterns of distributions of behaviours and/or artefact forms among different groups, where these patterns are deemed unlikely to arise from purely genetic and/or ecological factors. The presence of such patterns is often used to establish whether a species is cultural or not-i.e. whether a species uses social learning or not. Researchers using or describing this method have often pointed out that the method cannot pinpoint which specific type(s) of social learning resulted in the observed patterns. However, the literature continues to contain such inferences. In a new attempt to warn against these logically unwarranted conclusions, we illustrate this error using a novel approach. We use an individual-based model, focused on wild ape cultural patterns-as these patterns are the best-known cases of animal culture and as they also contain the most frequent usage of the unwarranted inference for specific social learning mechanisms. We built a model that contained agents unable to copy specifics of behavioural or artefact forms beyond their individual reach (which we define as "copying"). We did so, as some of the previous inference claims related to social learning mechanisms revolve around copying defined in this way. The results of our model however show that non-copying social learning can already reproduce the defining-even iconic-features of observed ape cultural patterns detected by the method of exclusion. This shows, using a novel model approach, that copying processes are not necessary to produce the cultural patterns that are sometimes still used in an attempt to identify copying processes. Additionally, our model could fully control for both environmental and genetic factors (impossible in real life) and thus offers a new validity check for the method of exclusion as related to general cultural claims-a check that the method passed. Our model also led to new and additional findings, which we likewise discuss.

Diversity and Prevalence of Ectoparasites on Poultry from Open Environment Farms in the Western-United States of Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and California.

Open-environment poultry farms that allow chickens to forage outdoors are becoming increasingly common throughout the United States and Europe; however, there is little information regarding the diversity and prevalence of ectoparasites in these farming systems. Eight to 25 birds were captured and surveyed for ectoparasites on each of 17 farms across the states of Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and California. Among the farms sampled, six louse species (Phthiraptera: Ischnocera & Amblycera) and two parasitic mite species (Acari: Mesostigmata) were collected and identified: Goniodes gigas (Taschenberg, 1879; Phthiraptera: Menoponidae) on one farm, Menacathus cornutus (Schömmer, 1913; Phthiraptera: Menoponidae) on one farm, Menopon gallinae (Linnaeus, 1758; Phthiraptera: Menoponidae) on six farms, Lipeurus caponis (Linnaeus, 1758; Phthiraptera: Philopteridae) on five farms, Menacanthus stramineus (Nitzsch, 1818; Phthiraptera: Menoponidae) on nine farms, Goniocotes gallinae De Geer (Phthiraptera: Philopteridae) on 11 farms, Dermanyssus gallinae (De Geer, 1778; Mesostigmata: Dermanyssidae) on two farms, and Ornithonyssus sylviarum (Canestrini & Fanzago, 1877; Mesostigmata: Macronyssidae) on one farm. The diversity of ectoparasites on these open environment poultry farms highlights a need for additional research on ectoparasite prevalence and intensity in these poultry farming systems.

Early knapping techniques do not necessitate cultural transmission.

Early stone tool production, or knapping, techniques are claimed to be the earliest evidence for cultural transmission in the human lineage. Previous experimental studies have trained human participants to knap in conditions involving opportunities for cultural transmission. Subsequent knapping was then interpreted as evidence for a necessity of the provided cultural transmission opportunities for these techniques. However, a valid necessity claim requires showing that individual learning alone cannot lead to early knapping techniques. Here, we tested human participants (N = 28) in cultural isolation for the individual learning of early knapping techniques by providing them with relevant raw materials and a puzzle task as motivation. Twenty-five participants were technique naïve according to posttest questionnaires, yet they individually learned early knapping techniques, therewith producing and using core and flake tools. Early knapping techniques thus do not necessitate cultural transmission of know-how and could likewise have been individually derived among premodern hominins.

Opposing global change drivers counterbalance trends in breeding North American monarch butterflies.

Many insects are in clear decline, with monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) drawing particular attention as a flagship species. It is well documented that, among migratory populations, numbers of overwintering monarchs have been falling across several decades, but trends among breeding monarchs are less clear. Here, we compile >135,000 monarch observations between 1993 and 2018 from the North American Butterfly Association's annual butterfly count to examine spatiotemporal patterns and potential drivers of adult monarch relative abundance trends across the entire breeding range in eastern and western North America. While the data revealed declines at some sites, particularly the US Northeast and parts of the Midwest, numbers in other areas, notably the US Southeast and Northwest, were unchanged or increasing, yielding a slightly positive overall trend across the species range. Negative impacts of agricultural glyphosate use appeared to be counterbalanced by positive effects of annual temperature, particularly in the US Midwest. Overall, our results suggest that population growth in summer is compensating for losses during the winter and that changing environmental variables have offsetting effects on mortality and/or reproduction. We suggest that density-dependent reproductive compensation when lower numbers arrive each spring is currently able to maintain relatively stable breeding monarch numbers. However, we caution against complacency since accelerating climate change may bring growing threats. In addition, increases of summer monarchs in some regions, especially in California and in the south, may reflect replacement of migratory with resident populations. Nonetheless, it is perhaps reassuring that ubiquitous downward trends in summer monarch abundance are not evident.

Early Brain microRNA/mRNA Expression is Region-Specific After Neonatal Hypoxic-Ischemic Injury in a Mouse Model.

Background: MicroRNAs (miRNAs) may be promising therapeutic targets for neonatal hypoxic-ischemic brain injury (HIBI) but targeting miRNA-based therapy will require more precise understanding of endogenous brain miRNA expression. Methods: Postnatal day 9 mouse pups underwent HIBI by unilateral carotid ligation + hypoxia or sham surgery. Next-generation miRNA sequencing and mRNA Neuroinflammation panels were performed on ipsilateral cortex, striatum/thalamus, and cerebellum of each group at 30 min after injury. Targeted canonical pathways were predicted by KEGG analysis. Results: Sixty-one unique miRNAs showed differential expression (DE) in at least one region; nine in more than one region, including miR-410-5p, -1264-3p, 1298-5p, -5,126, and -34b-3p. Forty-four mRNAs showed DE in at least one region; 16 in more than one region. MiRNAs showing DE primarily targeted metabolic pathways, while mRNAs targeted inflammatory and cell death pathways. Minimal miRNA-mRNA interactions were seen at 30 min after HIBI. Conclusion: This study identified miRNAs that deserve future study to assess their potential as therapeutic targets in neonatal HIBI. Additionally, the differences in miRNA expression between regions suggest that future studies assessing brain miRNA expression to guide therapy development should consider evaluating individual brain regions rather than whole brain to ensure the sensitivity needed for the development of targeted therapies.

Intranasal Administration of Extracellular Vesicles Mitigates Apoptosis in a Mouse Model of Neonatal Hypoxic-Ischemic Brain Injury.

INTRODUCTION: Neonatal hypoxic-ischemic brain injury (HIBI) results in significant morbidity and mortality despite current available therapies. Seeking a potential supplemental therapy for HIBI, we investigated the neuroprotective effects of extracellular vesicles derived from neural stem cells (NSC-EVs) and hypoxia-preconditioned brain cells (brain-EVs). METHODS: HIBI was induced in postnatal day 9 mice by carotid ligation followed by hypoxia. Following injury, NSC-EVs, brain-EVs, or saline were administered intranasally. Brains were assessed for infarct size, terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase dUTP nick end labeling (TUNEL) staining, and caspase-3 expression. Additionally, brain-EV microRNA (miRNA) contents were analyzed by miRNA sequencing. RESULTS: Both EV treated groups showed decreased infarct size (brain-EVs p = 0.004 and NSC-EVs p = 0.052), and although NSC-EV administration resulted in significantly fewer TUNEL+ cells (p = 0.0098), there was no change in caspase-3 expression after NSC-EV administration, suggesting a caspase-3-independent mechanism. Brain-EVs resulted in a nonsignificant decrease in TUNEL+ cells (p = 0.167) but significant decreases in caspase expression (cleaved p = 0.015 and intact p = 0.026). Brain-EVs consistently expressed several miRNAs, including two which have been shown to be downregulated after HIBI: miR-342-3p and miR-330-3p. CONCLUSION: Understanding the regenerative effects and contents of NSC-EVs and brain-EVs could allow for the development of targeted EV-based therapies that could reduce morbidity and mortality for neonates affected by HIBI.

Precipitation change accentuates or reverses temperature effects on aphid dispersal.

Global temperatures are generally increasing, and this is leading to a well documented advancement and extension of seasonal activity of many pest insects. Effects of changing precipitation have received less attention, but might be complex because rain and snow are increasing in some places but decreasing in others. This raises the possibility that altered precipitation could accentuate, or even reverse, the effects of rising temperatures on pest outbreaks. We used >592 K aphid suction-trap captures over 15 years, in the heavily farmed central USA, to examine how the activity of Aphis glycines (soybean aphid), Rhopalosiphum maidis (corn aphid), and Rhopalosiphum padi (bird cherry-oat aphid) changed with variation in both temperature and precipitation. Increasing precipitation caused late-season flight activity of A. glycines and early-season activity of R. padi to shift earlier, while increasing temperature did the same for early-season activity of A. glycines and R. maidis. In these cases, precipitation and temperature exhibited directionally similar, but independent, effects. However, precipitation sometimes mediated temperature effects in complex ways. At relatively low temperatures, greater precipitation generally caused late-season flights of R. maidis to occur earlier. However, this pattern was reversed at higher temperatures with precipitation delaying late-season activity. In contrast, greater precipitation delayed peak flights of R. padi at lower temperatures, but caused them to occur earlier at higher temperatures. So, in these two cases the interactive effects of precipitation on temperature were mirror images of one another. When projecting future aphid flight phenology, models that excluded precipitation covariates consistently underpredicted the degree of phenological advance for A. glycines and R. padi, and underpredicted the degree of phenological delay for R. maidis under expected future climates. Overall, we found broad evidence that changing patterns of aphid flight phenology could only be understood by considering both temperature and precipitation changes. In our study region, temperature and precipitation are expected to increase in tandem, but these correlations will be reversed elsewhere. This reinforces the need to include both main and interactive effects of precipitation and temperature when seeking to accurately predict how pest pressure will change with a changing climate.