Community-facing toxicokineticmodels to estimate PFAS serum levels based on life history and drinking water exposures.

BACKGROUND: Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are drinking water contaminants. Tools to assess the potential body burden associated with drinking PFAS-contaminated water may be helpful for public health assessment of exposed communities. METHODS: We implemented a suite of one-compartment toxicokinetic models using extensively calibrated toxicokinetic parameters (half-life and volume of distribution). We implemented the models both in the R programming language for research purposes, and as a web estimator for the general public (built in typescript.js). These models simulate exposure to PFAS water concentrations for individuals with varying characteristics such as age, sex, weight, and breastfeeding history. The models account for variability and uncertainty in parameter inputs to produce Monte Carlo-based estimates of serum concentration. For children, the models additionally account for gestational exposure, lactational exposure, and potential exposure through formula feeding. For adults who have borne children, the models account for clearance through birth and breastfeeding. We ran simulations of individuals with known PFAS water and serum concentrations to evaluate the model. We then compared the predicted serum PFAS concentrations to measured data. RESULTS: The models accurately estimate individual-level serum levels for each PFAS for most adults within ½ order of magnitude. We found that the models somewhat overestimated serum concentrations for children in the tested locations, and that these overestimates are generally within an order of magnitude. DISCUSSION: This paper presents scientifically robust models that allow users to estimate serum PFAS concentrations based on known PFAS water concentrations and physiologic information. However, accuracy in historical water concentration inputs, exposure from non-drinking water sources, and life-history characteristics of individuals present a complex problem for individual estimation. Additional refinements to the model suite to improve the prediction of individual results may consist of including duration of exposure and additional life-history characteristics.

Bayesian Estimation of Human Population Toxicokinetics of PFOA, PFOS, PFHxS, and PFNA from Studies of Contaminated Drinking Water.

BACKGROUND: Setting health-protective standards for poly- and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) exposure requires estimates of their population toxicokinetics, but existing studies have reported widely varying PFAS half-lives (T½) and volumes of distribution (Vd). OBJECTIVES: We combined data from multiple studies to develop harmonized estimates of T½ and Vd, along with their interindividual variability, for four PFAS commonly found in drinking water: perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), and perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS). METHODS: We identified published data on PFAS concentrations in human serum with corresponding drinking water measurements, separated into training and testing data sets. We fit training data sets to a one-compartment model incorporating interindividual variability, time-dependent drinking water concentrations, and background exposures. Use of a hierarchical Bayesian approach allowed us to incorporate informative priors at the population level, as well as at the study level. We compared posterior predictions to testing data sets to evaluate model performance. RESULTS: Posterior median (95% CI) estimates of T½ (in years) for the population geometric mean were 3.14 (2.69, 3.73) for PFOA, 3.36 (2.52, 4.42) for PFOS, 2.35 (1.65, 3.16) for PFNA, and 8.30 (5.38, 13.5) for PFHxS, all of which were within the range of previously published values. The extensive individual-level data for PFOA allowed accurate estimation of population variability, with a population geometric standard deviation of 1.57 (95% CI: 1.42, 1.73); data from other PFAS were also consistent with this degree of population variability. Vd estimates ranged from 0.19 to 0.43L/kg across the four PFAS, which tended to be slightly higher than previously published estimates. DISCUSSION: These results have direct application in both risk assessment (quantitative interspecies extrapolation and uncertainty factors for interindividual variability) and risk communication (interpretation of monitoring data). In addition, this study provides a rigorous methodology for further refinement with additional data, as well as application to other PFAS. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10103.