How to recognize pulmonary embolism in syncope patients: A simple rule.

BACKGROUND: Syncope can be the presenting symptom of Pulmonary Embolism (PE). It is not known wether using a standardized algorithm to rule-out PE in all patients with syncope admitted to the Emergency Departments (ED) is of value or can lead to overdiagnosis and overtreatment. METHODS: We tested if simple anamnestic and clinical parameters could be used as a rule to identify patients with syncope and PE in a multicenter observational study. The rule's sensitivity was tested on a cohort of patients that presented to the ED for syncopal episodes caused by PE. The clinical impact of the rule was assessed on a population of consecutive patients admitted for syncope in the ED. RESULTS: Patients were considered rule-positive in the presence of any of the following: hypotension, tachycardia, peripheral oxygen saturation ≤ 93 % (SpO2), chest pain, dyspnea, recent history of prolonged bed rest, clinical signs of deep vein thrombosis, history of previous venous thrombo-embolism and active neoplastic disease. The sensitivity of the rule was 90.3 % (95 % CI: 74.3 % to 98.0 %). The application of the rule to a population of 217 patients with syncope would have led to a 70 % reduction in the number of subjects needing additional diagnostic tests to exclude PE. CONCLUSIONS: Most patients with syncope due to PE present with anamnestic and clinical features indicative of PE diagnosis. A clinical decision rule can be used to identify patients who would benefit from further diagnostic tests to exclude PE, while reducing unnecessary exams that could lead to over-testing and over-diagnosis.

Multimodal deep learning for COVID-19 prognosis prediction in the emergency department: a bi-centric study.

Predicting clinical deterioration in COVID-19 patients remains a challenging task in the Emergency Department (ED). To address this aim, we developed an artificial neural network using textual (e.g. patient history) and tabular (e.g. laboratory values) data from ED electronic medical reports. The predicted outcomes were 30-day mortality and ICU admission. We included consecutive patients from Humanitas Research Hospital and San Raffaele Hospital in the Milan area between February 20 and May 5, 2020. We included 1296 COVID-19 patients. Textual predictors consisted of patient history, physical exam, and radiological reports. Tabular predictors included age, creatinine, C-reactive protein, hemoglobin, and platelet count. TensorFlow tabular-textual model performance indices were compared to those of models implementing only tabular data. For 30-day mortality, the combined model yielded slightly better performances than the tabular fastai and XGBoost models, with AUC 0.87 ± 0.02, F1 score 0.62 ± 0.10 and an MCC 0.52 ± 0.04 (p < 0.32). As for ICU admission, the combined model MCC was superior (p < 0.024) to the tabular models. Our results suggest that a combined textual and tabular model can effectively predict COVID-19 prognosis which may assist ED physicians in their decision-making process.

Prognostic value of respiratory parameters for COVID-19 patients in the emergency department: results from the EC-COVID study.

While several studies have evaluated the prognostic weight of respiratory parameters in patients with COVID-19, few have focused on patients' clinical conditions at the first emergency department (ED) assessment. We analyzed a large cohort of ED patients recruited within the EC-COVID study over the year 2020, and assessed the association between key bedside respiratory parameters measured in room air (pO2, pCO2, pH, and respiratory rate [RR]) and hospital mortality, after adjusting for key confounding factors. Analyses were based on a multivariable logistic Generalized Additive Model (GAM). After excluding patients who did not perform a blood gas analysis (BGA) test in room air or with incomplete BGA results, a total of 2458 patients were considered in the analyses. Most patients were hospitalized on ED discharge (72.0%); hospital mortality was 14.3%. Strong, negative associations with hospital mortality emerged for pO2, pCO2 and pH (p-values: < 0.001, < 0.001 and 0.014), while a significant, positive association was observed for RR (p-value < 0.001). Associations were quantified with nonlinear functions, learned from the data. No cross-parameter interaction was significant (all p-values were larger than 0.10), suggesting a progressive, independent effect on the outcome as the value of each parameter departed from normality. Our results collide with the hypothesized existence of patterns of breathing parameters with specific prognostic weight in the early stages of the disease.

The environmental cost of unwarranted variation in the use of magnetic resonance imaging and computed tomography scans.

BACKGROUND: Pollution is a major threat to global health, and there is growing interest on strategies to reduce emissions caused by health care systems. Unwarranted clinical variation, i.e. variation in the utilization of health services unexplained by differences in patient illness or preferences, may be an avoidable source of CO2 when related to overuse. Our objective was to evaluate the CO2 emissions attributable to unwarranted variation in the use of MRI and CT scans among countries of the G20-area. METHODS: We selected seven countries of the G20-area with available data on the use of CT and MRI scans from the organization for Economic Co-operation and Development repository. Each nation's annual electric energy expenditure per 1000 inhabitants for such exams (T-Enex-1000) was calculated and compared with the median and lowest value. Based on such differences we estimated the national energy and corresponding tons of CO2 that could be potentially avoided each year. RESULTS: With available data we found a significant variation in T-Enex-1000 (median value 1782 kWh, range 1200-3079 kWh) and estimated a significant amount of potentially avoidable emissions each year (range 2046-175120 tons of CO2). In practical terms such emissions would need, in the case of Germany, 71900 and 104210 acres of forest to be cleared from the atmosphere, which is 1.2 and 1.7 times the size of the largest German forest (Bavarian National Forest). CONCLUSION: Among countries with a similar rate of development, unwarranted clinical variation in the use of MRI and CT scan causes significant emissions of CO2.

Mental health and the effects on methylation of stress-related genes in front-line versus other health care professionals during the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic: an Italian pilot study.

Healthcare workers experienced high degree of stress during COVID-19. Purpose of the present article is to compare mental health (depressive and Post-Traumatic-Stress-Disorders-PTSD-symptoms) and epigenetics aspects (degree of methylation of stress-related genes) in front-line healthcare professionals versus healthcare working in non-COVID-19 wards. Sixty-eight healthcare workers were included in the study: 39 were working in COVID-19 wards (cases) and 29 in non-COVID wards (controls). From all participants, demographic and clinical information were collected by an ad-hoc questionnaire. Depressive and PTSD symptoms were evaluated by the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) and the Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R), respectively. Methylation analyses of 9 promoter/regulatory regions of genes known to be implicated in depression/PTSD (ADCYAP1, BDNF, CRHR1, DRD2, IGF2, LSD1/KDM1A, NR3C1, OXTR, SLC6A4) were performed on DNA from blood samples by the MassARRAY EpiTYPER platform, with MassCleave settings. Controls showed more frequent lifetime history of anxiety/depression with respect to cases (χ2 = 5.72, p = 0.03). On the contrary, cases versus controls presented higher PHQ-9 (t = 2.13, p = 0.04), PHQ-9 sleep item (t = 2.26, p = 0.03), IES-R total (t = 2.17, p = 0.03), IES-R intrusion (t = 2.46, p = 0.02), IES-R avoidance (t = 1.99, p = 0.05) mean total scores. Methylation levels at CRHR1, DRD2 and LSD1 genes was significantly higher in cases with respect to controls (p < 0.01, p = 0.03 and p = 0.03, respectively). Frontline health professionals experienced more negative effects on mental health during COVID-19 pandemic than non-frontline healthcare workers. Methylation levels were increased in genes regulating HPA axis (CRHR1) and dopamine neurotransmission (DRD2 and LSD1), thus supporting the involvement of these biological processes in depression/PTSD and indicating that methylation of these genes can be modulated by stress conditions, such as working as healthcare front-line during COVID-19 pandemic.

A Hybrid Model for 30-Day Syncope Prognosis Prediction in the Emergency Department.

Syncope is a challenging problem in the emergency department (ED) as the available risk prediction tools have suboptimal predictive performances. Predictive models based on machine learning (ML) are promising tools whose application in the context of syncope remains underexplored. The aim of the present study was to develop and compare the performance of ML-based models in predicting the risk of clinically significant outcomes in patients presenting to the ED for syncope. We enrolled 266 consecutive patients (age 73, IQR 58-83; 52% males) admitted for syncope at three tertiary centers. We collected demographic and clinical information as well as the occurrence of clinically significant outcomes at a 30-day telephone follow-up. We implemented an XGBoost model based on the best-performing candidate predictors. Subsequently, we integrated the XGboost predictors with knowledge-based rules. The obtained hybrid model outperformed the XGboost model (AUC = 0.81 vs. 0.73, p < 0.001) with acceptable calibration. In conclusion, we developed an ML-based model characterized by a commendable capability to predict adverse events within 30 days post-syncope evaluation in the ED. This model relies solely on clinical data routinely collected during a patient's initial syncope evaluation, thus obviating the need for laboratory tests or syncope experienced clinical judgment.

Diagnostic accuracy of rapid antigen test for COVID-19 in an emergency department.

Use of antigen tests for the diagnosis of COVID-19 has become widespread. The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the nasopharyngeal rapid antigen diagnostic (RAD) immunoassay LumiraDx UK in an Emergency Department (ED). All patients admitted to our ED between November 11 and December 8, 2020, and had both a RAD test and a real-time-reverse-transcription-polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) test were enrolled. RAD was considered as the index test and RT-PCR test was used as the reference standard. Sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values, and likelihood ratios were calculated with the 95% confidence interval. The sensitivity and specificity of RAD were 34.2% and 92.3%. Positive and negative likelihood ratios were 4.4 and 0.71. Our results demonstrate that the diagnostic accuracy of the LumiraDx RAD test is too low for routine use as a diagnostic method in the ED.

Prospective comparison of AMB, GAP AND START scores and triage nurse clinical judgement for predicting admission from an ED: a single-centre prospective study.

BACKGROUND: It is postulated that early determination of the need for admission can improve flow through EDs. There are several scoring systems which have been developed for predicting patient admission at triage, although they have not been directly compared. In addition, it is not known if these scoring systems perform better than clinical judgement. Therefore, the aim of this study was to validate existing tools in predicting hospital admission during triage and then compare them with the clinical judgement of triage nurses. METHODS: To conduct this prospective, single-centre observational study, we enrolled consecutive adult patients who presented between 30 September 2019 and 25 October 2019 at the ED of a large teaching hospital in Milan, Italy. For each patient, triage nurses recorded all of the variables needed to perform Ambulatory (AMB), Glasgow Admission Prediction (GAP) and Sydney Triage to Admission Risk Tool (START) scoring. The probability of admission was estimated by the triage nurses using clinical judgement and expressed as a percentage from 0 to 100 with intervals of 5. Nurse estimates were dichotomised for analysis, with ≥50% likelihood being a prediction of admission. Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated for accuracy of the predictions. Area under the curve (AUC) with 95% CI for each of the scores and for the nursing judgements was also calculated. RESULTS: A total of 1710 patients (844 men; median age, 54 years (IQR: 34-75)) and 35 nurses (15 men; median age, 37 years (IQR: 33-48)) were included in this study. Among these patients, 310 (18%) were admitted to hospital from the ED. AUC values for AMB, GAP and START scores were 0.77 (95% CI: 0.74 to 0.79), 0.72 (95% CI: 0.69 to 0.75) and 0.61 (95% CI: 0.58 to 0.64), respectively. The AUC for nurse clinical judgement was 0.86 (95% CI: 0.84 to 0.89). CONCLUSION: AMB, GAP and START scores provided moderate accuracy in predicting patient admission. However, all of the scores were significantly worse than the clinical judgement of the triage nurses.

Syncope Time Frames for Adverse Events after Emergency Department Presentation: An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis.

Background and Objectives: Knowledge of the incidence and time frames of the adverse events of patients presenting syncope at the ED is essential for developing effective management strategies. The aim of the present study was to perform a meta-analysis of the incidence and time frames of adverse events of syncope patients. Materials and Methods: We combined individual patients' data from prospective observational studies including adult patients who presented syncope at the ED. We assessed the pooled rate of adverse events at 24 h, 72 h, 7-10 days, 1 month and 1 year after ED evaluation. Results: We included nine studies that enrolled 12,269 patients. The mean age varied between 53 and 73 years, with 42% to 57% females. The pooled rate of adverse events was 5.1% (95% CI 3.4% to 7.7%) at 24 h, 7.0% (95% CI 4.9% to 9.9%) at 72 h, 8.4% (95% CI 6.2% to 11.3%) at 7-10 days, 10.3% (95% CI 7.8% to 13.3%) at 1 month and 21.3% (95% CI 15.8% to 28.0%) at 1 year. The pooled death rate was 0.2% (95% CI 0.1% to 0.5%) at 24 h, 0.3% (95% CI 0.1% to 0.7%) at 72 h, 0.5% (95% CI 0.3% to 0.9%) at 7-10 days, 1% (95% CI 0.6% to 1.7%) at 1 month and 5.9% (95% CI 4.5% to 7.7%) at 1 year. The most common adverse event was arrhythmia, for which its rate was 3.1% (95% CI 2.0% to 4.9%) at 24 h, 4.8% (95% CI 3.5% to 6.7%) at 72 h, 5.8% (95% CI 4.2% to 7.9%) at 7-10 days, 6.9% (95% CI 5.3% to 9.1%) at 1 month and 9.9% (95% CI 5.5% to 17) at 1 year. Ventricular arrhythmia was rare. Conclusions: The risk of death or life-threatening adverse event is rare in patients presenting syncope at the ED. The most common adverse events are brady and supraventricular arrhythmias, which occur during the first 3 days. Prolonged ECG monitoring in the ED in a short stay unit with ECG monitoring facilities may, therefore, be beneficial.

Management of patients with cervical spine trauma in the emergency department: a systematic critical appraisal of guidelines with a view to developing standardized strategies for clinical practice.

Several guidelines on the evaluation of patients with suspected cervical spine trauma in the Emergency Department (ED) exist. High heterogeneity between different guidelines has been reported. Aim of this study was to find areas of agreement and disagreement between guidelines, to identify topics in which further research is needed and to provide an evidence-based cervical spine trauma algorithm for ED physicians. The three most relevant guidelines published on cervical spine trauma in the last 10 years were selected screening websites of the main scientific societies and through the comparison of a normalized Google Scholar and SCOPUS citation index. We compared the selected guidelines through seven a-priori defined questions. In case of disagreement between the guidelines or if the quality of evidence appeared low, evidence from published systematic reviews on the topic was added to build an evidence-based algorithm for approach to spinal trauma in the ED. The three selected guidelines were: NICE 2016, Eastern Association for the Surgery of Trauma 2009 and American Association of Neurological Surgeons and Congress of Neurological Surgeons 2013. We found complete agreement on one question, partial agreement for one questions, no agreement for two questions, while agreement was not assessable for 3 questions. The agreement between different guidelines and the evidence on which recommendations are based is low. An attempt to build an evidence-based algorithm has been made. More studies are needed on many topics.

Examination of the relationship between emergency department presentations and population mortality: a multicenter analysis of emergency department presentations during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: In the spring of 2020, Italy experienced a significant reduction in the number of emergency department (ED) presentations during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. If ED access has an impact on patients' prognosis, such a reduction in ED presentations would be expected to correlate with a parallel increase in the mortality rate of the corresponding population. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the impact of reduced ED presentations on the all-cause mortality of the general population. METHODS: Absolute and relative variation in ED accesses from March 1 to April 30 of both 2019 and 2020 in three hub hospitals in areas with different COVID-19 prevalence and age-standardized mortality data from January 1 to June 30 in 2019 and 2020 of the same areas were evaluated. RESULTS: During March and April 2020, ED consults were decreased of approximately 50% in all three hospitals, as compared with the same months in 2019. There was a marked increase in cumulative mortality in Milan (high SARS-CoV2 infection spread zone) compared with the same period in 2019. In the other two municipalities (Ferrara and Perugia), which had intermediate and low levels of infection spread, the mortality in 2020 was not substantially changed from that of 2019. CONCLUSIONS: Taking into account the increase in mortality due to SARS-CoV-2, reductions in ED access did not seem to affect death rates. If this finding will be confirmed, ED organization and access would need to be reconsidered.

Intestinal ischemic manifestations of SARS-CoV-2: Results from the ABDOCOVID multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: Intestinal ischemia has been described in case reports of patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) disease (coronavirus disease 19, COVID-19). AIM: To define the clinical and histological, characteristics, as well as the outcome of ischemic gastrointestinal manifestations of SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: A structured retrospective collection was promoted among three tertiary referral centres during the first wave of the pandemic in northern Italy. Clinical, radiological, endoscopic and histological data of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 between March 1st and May 30th were reviewed. The diagnosis was established by consecutive analysis of all abdominal computed tomography (CT) scans performed. RESULTS: Among 2929 patients, 21 (0.7%) showed gastrointestinal ischemic manifestations either as presenting symptom or during hospitalization. Abdominal CT showed bowel distention in 6 patients while signs of colitis/enteritis in 12. Three patients presented thrombosis of main abdominal veins. Endoscopy, when feasible, confirmed the diagnosis (6 patients). Surgical resection was necessary in 4/21 patients. Histological tissue examination showed distinctive features of endothelial inflammation in the small bowel and colon. Median hospital stay was 9 d with a mortality rate of 39%. CONCLUSION: Gastrointestinal ischemia represents a rare manifestation of COVID-19. A high index of suspicion should lead to investigate this complication by CT scan, in the attempt to reduce its high mortality rate. Histology shows atypical feature of ischemia with important endotheliitis, probably linked to thrombotic microangiopathies.

Incidence of delayed bleeding in patients on antiplatelet therapy after mild traumatic brain injury: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The scientific evidence regarding the risk of delayed intracranial bleeding (DB) after mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI) in patients administered an antiplatelet agent (APA) is scant and incomplete. In addition, no consensus exists on the utility of a routine repeated head computed tomography (CT) scan in these patients. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk of DB after MTBI in patients administered an APA. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective and retrospective observational studies enrolling adult patients with MTBI administered an APA and who had a second CT scan performed or a clinical follow-up to detect any DB after a first negative head CT scan were conducted. The primary outcome was the risk of DB in MTBI patients administered an APA. The secondary outcome was the risk of clinically relevant DB (defined as any DB leading to neurosurgical intervention or death). RESULTS: Sixteen studies comprising 2930 patients were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled absolute risk for DB was 0.77% (95% CI 0.23-1.52%), ranging from 0 to 4%, with substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 61%). The pooled incidence of clinically relevant DB was 0.18%. The subgroup of patients on dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) had an increased DB risk, compared to the acetylsalicylic acid (ASA)-only patients (2.64% vs. 0.22%; p = 0.04). CONCLUSION: Our systematic review showed a very low risk of DB in MTBI patients on antiplatelet therapy. We believe that such a low rate of DB could not justify routine repeated CT scans in MTBI patients administered a single APA. We speculate that in the case of clinically stable patients, a repeated head CT scan could be useful for select high-risk patients and for patients on DAPT before discharge.

Laryngotracheal aspiration test reduce the false negative rate in patients with suspected SARS-COV-2 pneumonia despite a negative nasopharyngeal swab.

BACKGROUND: In the emergency department (ED) definitive diagnosis of SARS-COV-2 pneumonia is challenging as nasopharyngeal swab (NPS) can give false negative results. Strategies to reduce false negative rate of NPS have limitations. Serial NPSs (24-48 h from one another) are time-consuming, sputum can not be collected in the majority of patients, and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), the most sensitive test, requires specific expertise. Laryngotracheal aspiration (LTA) is easy to perform and showed a similar accuracy to BAL for diagnosis of other pulmonary diseases, however it was not studied to diagnose SARS-COV-2 pneumonia. OBJECTIVE: An observational cross-sectional study was performed to evaluate the negative predictive value of LTA in patients with suspected SARS-COV-2 pneumonia despite a negative NPS. METHODS: In the EDs of two university hospitals, consecutive patients with suspected SARS-COV-2 pneumonia despite a negative NPS underwent LTA performed with a nasotracheal tube connected to a vacuum system. Final diagnosis based on all respiratory specimen tests (NPS, LTA and BAL) and hospital data was established by two reviewers and in case of discordance by a third reviewer. RESULTS: 117 patients were enrolled. LTA was feasible in all patients and no patients experienced adverse events. Fifteen (12.7%) patients were diagnosed with community-acquired SARS-COV-2 pneumonia: 13 LTA positive and only 2 (1.7%) LTA negative. The negative predictive value of NPS and LTA was 87.3% (79.9% - 92.7%) and 98.1% (93.3%99.8%) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: LTA resulted feasible, safe and reduced false negative rate in patients with suspected SARS-COV-2 pneumonia despite a negative NPS.

Correction: Personalized risk stratification through attribute matching for clinical decision making in clinical conditions with aspecific symptoms: The example of syncope.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0228725.].

Multicentre external validation of the Canadian Syncope Risk Score to predict adverse events and comparison with clinical judgement.

BACKGROUND: The Canadian Syncope Risk Score (CSRS) has been proposed for syncope risk stratification in the emergency department (ED). The aim of this study is to perform an external multicenter validation of the CSRS and to compare it with clinical judgement. METHODS: Using patients previously included in the SyMoNE database, we enrolled subjects older than 18 years who presented reporting syncope at the ED. For each patient, we estimated the CSRS and recorded the physician judgement on the patients' risk of adverse events. We performed a 30-day follow-up. RESULTS: From 1 September 2015 to 28 February 2017, we enrolled 345 patients; the median age was 71 years (IQR 51-81), 174 (50%) were men and 29% were hospitalised. Serious adverse events occurred in 43 (12%) of the patients within 30 days. The area under the curve of the CSRS and clinical judgement was 0.75 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.81) and 0.68 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.74), respectively. The risk of adverse events of patients at low risk according to the CSRS and clinical judgement was 6.7% and 2%, with a sensitivity of 70% (95% CI 54% to 83%) and 95% (95% CI 84% to 99%), respectively. CONCLUSION: This study represents the first validation analysis of CSRS outside Canada. The overall predictive accuracy of the CSRS is similar to the clinical judgement. However, patients at low risk according to clinical judgement had a lower incidence of adverse events as compared with patients at low risk according to the CSRS. Further studies showing that the adoption of the CSRS improve patients' outcomes is warranted before its widespread implementation.

Variations in volume of emergency surgeries and emergency department access at a third level hospital in Milan, Lombardy, during the COVID-19 outbreak.

BACKGROUND: During the recent outbreak of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019), Lombardy was the most affected region in Italy, with 87,000 patients and 15,876 deaths up to May 26, 2020. Since February 22, 2020, well before the Government declared a state of emergency, there was a huge reduction in the number of emergency surgeries performed at hospitals in Lombardy. A general decrease in attendance at emergency departments (EDs) was also observed. The aim of our study is to report the experience of the ED of a third-level hospital in downtown Milan, Lombardy, and provide possible explanations for the observed phenomena. METHODS: This retrospective, observational study assessed the volume of emergency surgeries and attendance at an ED during the course of the pandemic, i.e. immediately before, during and after a progressive community lockdown in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. These data were compared with data from the same time periods in 2019. The results are presented as means, standard error (SE), and 95% studentized confidence intervals (CI). The Wilcoxon rank signed test at a 0.05 significance level was used to assess differences in per-day ED access distributions. RESULTS: Compared to 2019, a significant overall drop in emergency surgeries (60%, p < 0.002) and in ED admittance (66%, p ≅ 0) was observed in 2020. In particular, there were significant decreases in medical (40%), surgical (74%), specialist (ophthalmology, otolaryngology, traumatology, and urology) (92%), and psychiatric (60%) cases. ED admittance due to domestic violence (59%) and individuals who left the ED without being seen (76%) also decreased. Conversely, the number of deaths increased by 196%. CONCLUSIONS: During the COVID-19 outbreak the volume of urgent surgeries and patients accessing our ED dropped. Currently, it is not known if mortality of people who did not seek care increased during the pandemic. Further studies are needed to understand if such reductions during the COVID-19 pandemic will result in a rebound of patients left untreated or in unwanted consequences for population health.

Utility of hospitalization for elderly individuals affected by COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of individuals needing hospital admission has sometimes exceeded the availability of hospital beds. Since hospitalization can have detrimental effects on older individuals, preference has been given to younger patients. The aim of this study was to assess the utility of hospitalization for elderly affected by COVID-19. We hypothesized that their mortality decreases when there is greater access to hospitals. METHODS: This study examined 1902 COVID-19 patients consecutively admitted to three large hospitals in Milan, Italy. Overall mortality data for Milan from the same period was retrieved. Based on emergency department (ED) data, both peak and off-peak phases were identified. The percentage of elderly patients admitted to EDs during these two phases were compared by calculating the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) of the individuals younger than, versus older than, 80 years. RESULTS: The median age of the patients hospitalized during the peak phase was lower than the median age during the off-peak phase (64 vs. 75 years, respectively; p <0.001). However, while the SMR for the younger patients was lower during the off-peak phase (1.98, 95% CI: 1.72-2.29 versus 1.40, 95% CI: 1.25-1.58, respectively), the SMR was similar between both phases for the elderly patients (2.28, 95% CI: 2.07-2.52 versus 2.48, 95% CI: 2.32-2.65, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Greater access to hospitals during an off-peak phase did not affect the mortality rate of COVID-19-positive elderly patients in Milan. This finding, if confirmed in other settings, should influence future decisions regarding resource management of health care organizations.