RESUMO
OBJECTIVES: As a serious complication of moderately severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP) and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) can lead to a prolonged course of interventional therapy. Most predictive models designed to identify such patients are complex or lack validation. The aim of this study was to develop a predictive model for the early detection of IPN in MSAP and SAP. METHODS: A total of 594 patients with MSAP or SAP were included in the study. To reduce dimensionality, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis was used to screen potential predictive variables, a nomogram was then constructed using logistic regression analysis. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the discrimination, accuracy, and clinical efficacy of the model. External data were also obtained to further validate the constructed model. RESULTS: There were 476, 118, and 82 patients in the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts, respectively. Platelet count, hematocrit, albumin/globulin, severity of acute pancreatitis, and modified computed tomography severity index score were independent factors for predicting IPN in MSAP and SAP. The area under the ROC curves were 0.923, 0.940, and 0.817, respectively, in the three groups. There was a good consistency between the actual probabilities and the predicted probabilities. DCA revealed excellent clinical utility. CONCLUSION: The constructed nomogram is a simple and feasible model that has good clinical predictive value and efficacy in clinical decision-making for IPN in MSAP and SAP.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS)-guided drainage has become the first-line therapy for late peri-pancreatic fluid collection (PFC). Double pigtail plastic stents (DPPS) and lumen-apposing metal stents (LAMS) are commonly used for PFC drainage. Recently, a multi-institutional consensus on PFC drainage has recommended that LAMS should be the standard care for patients with walled-off necrosis (WON). However, given the poor quality of evidence, we aim to perform a large-scale randomized controlled trial to determine whether LAMS is superior to DPPS for WON drainage. METHODS/DESIGN: The study is an open-label, prospective, parallel-group, superiority, multicenter randomized controlled trial. Two hundred and fifty-six patients with WON who will attend 18 tertiary hospitals in China will be randomly allocated to the LAMS or DPPS group before the procedure. The primary endpoint is the clinical success at one month after drainage (reduction in the size of WON to < 2 cm). Secondary endpoints include technical success, operation time, recurrence, adverse events, and secondary interventions. DISCUSSION: The LVPWON trial is designed to determine whether LAMS is effective, safe, and superior to DPPS for WON drainage. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03027895 . Registered on 14 January 2017.
