Couple-Years of Protection Indicator: New Global Guidance for Updating Existing Methods and Adding New Methods.

BACKGROUND: Couple-years of protection (CYP) is an indicator that allows for monitoring and evaluating of family planning (FP) program performance through simple calculations. The CYP for each contraceptive method is calculated by multiplying the number of contraceptive commodity units distributed to clients over a 1-year period by a conversion factor that quantifies the duration of contraceptive protection provided per unit distributed. CYP calculations across methods were previously updated in 2000 and 2011, resulting in changes in methodology, factor inclusion, and specific methods. Since the 2011 update, changes and additions to the modern contraceptive method mix required new CYP conversion factors for 4 methods of contraception: Levoplant implant, progestin-only pills (POPs), Caya diaphragm, and the hormonal intrauterine device. METHODS: We conducted literature reviews of both published and gray literature and consulted with experts to identify updated data on continuation rates, duration of efficacy, and method effectiveness for the 4 methods. New CYP conversion factors were calculated for the 4 methods either by using the same calculation used previously for the method considering new data or, for new methods, using calculations for similar methods. RESULTS: New CYP conversion factors were assigned to the 4 methods of contraception covered in this update: Levoplant, 2.5 CYP per implant inserted; POPs, 0.0833 CYP per pack (i.e., 12 cycles per CYP); Caya diaphragm, 1 CYP per device, and hormonal intrauterine device, 4.8 CYP per device inserted. CONCLUSIONS: CYP is an important indicator for FP programs. As new methods of contraception are developed and new evidence is generated for current methods, the indicator may need to be updated. A standard process for updating and documenting future CYP updates is recommended.

Women living with their mothers-in-law.

Background Many studies have documented the impacts mothers-in-law have on daughters-in-law living in the same household, but few have quantified the scale of this co-residence.   This study aims to estimate the proportion of married women living with their mothers-in-law across countries and time.  Methods Using household rosters from 250 Demographic and Health Surveys in 75 countries, this paper uses the "relationship to head of household" question to identify households where married women live with their mothers-in-law.  For select countries with large changes, we decompose changes in rates into changes in the age structure of married women and the rate of women living with their mothers-in-law by age. Results This paper finds large variation in family structure around the globe, from 1% of married women in Rwanda to 49% in Tajikistan living with their mother-in-law.  Many countries with high co-residence in the 1990s continue to see high and increasing numbers today, especially in Central and Southern Asia, while some North and sub-Saharan African countries experienced substantial declines.  Decomposing changes by age and rates shows that changes in the age structure of married women is not driving changes in co-residence, but rather the rates are changing across age groups.  Conclusions These findings show the large variation in women living with their mothers-in-law across the globe.  The authors provide publicly available code and future research ideas to encourage others to further our understanding of the impact of living with her mother-in-law on a woman's life.

Using family planning service statistics to inform model-based estimates of modern contraceptive prevalence.

The annual assessment of Family Planning (FP) indicators, such as the modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR), is a key component of monitoring and evaluating goals of global FP programs and initiatives. To that end, the Family Planning Estimation Model (FPEM) was developed with the aim of producing survey-informed estimates and projections of mCPR and other key FP indictors over time. With large-scale surveys being carried out on average every 3-5 years, data gaps since the most recent survey often exceed one year. As a result, survey-based estimates for the current year from FPEM are often based on projections that carry a larger uncertainty than data informed estimates. In order to bridge recent data gaps we consider the use of a measure, termed Estimated Modern Use (EMU), which has been derived from routinely collected family planning service statistics. However, EMU data come with known limitations, namely measurement errors which result in biases and additional variation with respect to survey-based estimates of mCPR. Here we present a data model for the incorporation of EMU data into FPEM, which accounts for these limitations. Based on known biases, we assume that only changes in EMU can inform FPEM estimates, while also taking inherent variation into account. The addition of this EMU data model to FPEM allows us to provide a secondary data source for informing and reducing uncertainty in current estimates of mCPR. We present model validations using a survey-only model as a baseline comparison and we illustrate the impact of including the EMU data model in FPEM. Results show that the inclusion of EMU data can change point-estimates of mCPR by up to 6.7 percentage points compared to using surveys only. Observed reductions in uncertainty were modest, with the width of uncertainty intervals being reduced by up to 2.7 percentage points.

Setting the stage for strengthened annual monitoring of family planning program performance at the state/national level in Myanmar.

Background: Although Myanmar has made good progress in family planning by increased contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) from 41% in 2007 to 52.2% in 2016, it remains lower than the target of 60% by 2020. There are also huge disparities sub-nationally, ranging from 25% to 60%. While there is a strong need to monitor the progress of family planning program regularly at the national and sub-national level, Myanmar has limited surveys, data quality and methodological issues in its Health Management Information System (HMIS), and a scattered rollout of the Logistic Management Information System (LMIS). Methods: To identify viable options for annual monitoring, four data sources: modelled contraceptive prevalence rate for modern methods (mCPR) estimates from Track20's  Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET); method-specific prevalence from the  2015-16 Myanmar Demographic and Health Survey (DHS); mCPR estimates and method prevalence from  HMIS and estimates of modern method use (EMU) based on commodity consumption data from LMIS, were compared for the years 2015-2017. Estimates of mCPR from HMIS were tested for accuracy based on whether they fell within the 95% confidence interval of mCPR estimates from the FPET for the corresponding years. EMU from LMIS was also tested for those years and states/regions where available. Results: For annual tracking of mCPR, direct estimates of HMIS were considered carefully, as they were much higher than those of the DHS survey and were not matched by FPET results, except in Chin and Kayin. To monitor the method mix, HMIS data can be used as these are similar pattern with DHS in both national and State/Regional level except Chin and Kayin. LMIS could be used in annual tracking when there are high reporting rates and valid information of consumption. Conclusions: Track20's FPET is the method of choice to get valid information for annual monitoring of family planning program.

Using Evidence to Drive Impact: Developing the FP Goals Impact Matrix.

When designing a family planning (FP) strategy, decision-makers can choose from a wide range of interventions designed to expand access to and develop demand for FP. However, not all interventions will have the same impact on increasing modern contraceptive prevalence (mCP). Understanding the existing evidence is critical to planning successful and cost-effective programs. The Impact Matrix is the first comprehensive summary of the impact of a full range of FP interventions on increasing mCP using a single comparable metric. It was developed through an extensive literature review with input from the wider FP community, and includes 138 impact factors highlighting the range of effectiveness observed across categories and subcategories of FP interventions. The Impact Matrix is central to the FP Goals model, used to project scenarios of mCP growth that help decision-makers set realistic goals and prioritize investments. Development of the Impact Matrix, evidence gaps identified, and the contribution to FP Goals are discussed.

Modern contraceptive use, unmet need, and demand satisfied among women of reproductive age who are married or in a union in the focus countries of the Family Planning 2020 initiative: a systematic analysis using the Family Planning Estimation Tool.

BACKGROUND: The London Summit on Family Planning in 2012 inspired the Family Planning 2020 (FP2020) initiative and the 120×20 goal of having an additional 120 million women and adolescent girls become users of modern contraceptives in 69 of the world's poorest countries by the year 2020. Working towards achieving 120 × 20 is crucial for ultimately achieving the Sustainable Development Goals of universal access and satisfying demand for reproductive health. Thus, a performance assessment is required to determine countries' progress. METHODS: An updated version of the Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) was used to construct estimates and projections of the modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR), unmet need for, and demand satisfied with modern methods of contraception among women of reproductive age who are married or in a union in the focus countries of the FP2020 initiative. We assessed current levels of family planning indicators and changes between 2012 and 2017. A counterfactual analysis was used to assess if recent levels of mCPR exceeded pre-FP2020 expectations. FINDINGS: In 2017, the mCPR among women of reproductive age who are married or in a union in the FP2020 focus countries was 45·7% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 42·4-49·1), unmet need for modern methods was 21·6% (19·7-23·9), and the demand satisfied with modern methods was 67·9% (64·4-71·1). Between 2012 and 2017 the number of women of reproductive age who are married or in a union who use modern methods increased by 28·8 million (95% UI 5·8-52·5). At the regional level, Asia has seen the mCPR among women of reproductive age who are married or in a union grow from 51·0% (95% UI 48·5-53·4) to 51·8% (47·3-56·5) between 2012 and 2017, which is slow growth, particularly when compared with a change from 23·9% (22·9-25·0) to 28·5% (26·8-30·2) across Africa. At the country level, based on a counterfactual analysis, we found that 61% of the countries that have made a commitment to FP2020 exceeded pre-FP2020 expectations for modern contraceptive use. Country success stories include rapid increases in Kenya, Mozambique, Malawi, Lesotho, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Chad relative to what was expected in 2012. INTERPRETATION: Whereas the estimate of additional users up to 2017 for women of reproductive age who are married or in a union would suggest that the 120 × 20 goal for all women is overly ambitious, the aggregate outcomes mask the diversity in progress at the country level. We identified countries with accelerated progress, that provide inspiration and guidance on how to increase the use of family planning and inform future efforts, especially in countries where progress has been poor. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, through grant support to the University of Massachusetts Amherst and Avenir Health.

The maximum contraceptive prevalence 'demand curve': guiding discussions on programmatic investments.

Most frameworks for family planning include both access and demand interventions. Understanding how these two are linked and when each should be prioritized is difficult. The maximum contraceptive prevalence 'demand curve' was created based on a relationship between the modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR) and mean ideal number of children to allow for a quantitative assessment of the balance between access and demand interventions. The curve represents the maximum mCPR that is likely to be seen given fertility intentions and related norms and constructs that influence contraceptive use. The gap between a country's mCPR and this maximum is referred to as the 'potential use gap.' This concept can be used by countries to prioritize access investments where the gap is large, and discuss implications for future contraceptive use where the gap is small. It is also used within the FP Goals model to ensure mCPR growth from access interventions does not exceed available demand.

Impact of family planning programs in reducing high-risk births due to younger and older maternal age, short birth intervals, and high parity.

Several studies show that maternal and neonatal/infant mortality risks increase with younger and older maternal age (<18 and >34 years), high parity (birth order >3), and short birth intervals (<24 months). Family planning programs are widely viewed as having contributed to substantial maternal and neonatal mortality decline through contraceptive use--both by reducing unwanted births and by reducing the burden of these high-risk births. However, beyond averting births, the empirical evidence for the role of family planning in reducing high-risk births at population level is limited. We examined data from 205 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), conducted between 1985 and 2013, to describe the trends in high-risk births and their association with the pace of progress in modern contraceptive prevalence rate (yearly increase in rate of MCPR) in 57 developing countries. Using Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition technique, we then examine the contributions of family planning program, economic development (GDP per capita), and educational improvement (secondary school completion rate) on the progress of MCPR in order to link the net contribution of family planning program to the reduction of high-risk births mediated through contraceptive use. Countries that had the fastest progress in improving MCPR experienced the greatest declines in high-risk births due to short birth intervals (<24 months), high parity births (birth order >3), and older maternal age (>35 years). Births among younger women <18 years, however, did not decline significantly during this period. The decomposition analysis suggests that 63% of the increase in MCPR was due to family planning program efforts, 21% due to economic development, and 17% due to social advancement through women's education. Improvement in MCPR, predominately due to family planning programs, is a major driver of the decline in the burden of high-risk births due to high parity, shorter birth intervals, and older maternal age in developing countries. The lack of progress in the decline of births in younger women <18 years of age underscores the need for more attention to ensure that quality contraceptive methods are available to adolescent women in order to delay first births. This study substantiates the significance of family planning programming as a major health intervention for preventing high-risk births and associated maternal and child mortality, but it highlights the need for concerted efforts to strengthen service provision for adolescents.

Residual confounding explains the association between high parity and child mortality.

BACKGROUND: This study used data from recent Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to examine the impact of high parity on under-five and neonatal mortality. The analyses used various techniques to attempt eliminating selection issues, including stratification of analyses by mothers' completed fertility. METHODS: We analyzed DHS datasets from 47 low- and middle-income countries. We only used data from women who were age 35 or older at the time of survey to have a measure of their completed fertility. We ran log-binominal regression by country to calculate relative risk between parity and both under-five and neonatal mortality, controlled for wealth quintile, maternal education, urban versus rural residence, maternal age at first birth, calendar year (to control for possible time trends), and birth interval. We then controlled for maternal background characteristics even further by using mothers' completed fertility as a proxy measure. RESULTS: We found a statistically significant association between high parity and child mortality. However, this association is most likely not physiological, and can be largely attributed to the difference in background characteristics of mothers who complete reproduction with high fertility versus low fertility. Children of high completed fertility mothers have statistically significantly increased risk of death compared to children of low completed fertility mothers at every birth order, even after controlling for available confounders (i.e. among children of birth order 1, adjusted RR of under-five mortality 1.58, 95% CI: 1.42, 1.76). There appears to be residual confounders that put children of high completed fertility mothers at higher risk, regardless of birth order. When we examined the association between parity and under-five mortality among mothers with high completed fertility, it remained statistically significant, but negligible in magnitude (i.e. adjusted RR of under-five mortality 1.03, 95% CI: 1.02-1.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses strongly suggest that the observed increased risk of mortality associated with high parity births is not driven by a physiological link between parity and mortality. We found that at each birth order, children born to women who have high fertility at the end of their reproductive period are at significantly higher mortality risk than children of mothers who have low fertility, even after adjusting for available confounders. With each unit increase in birth order, a larger proportion of births at the population level belongs to mothers with these adverse characteristics correlated with high fertility. Hence it appears as if mortality rates go up with increasing parity, but not for physiological reasons.

Linking high parity and maternal and child mortality: what is the impact of lower health services coverage among higher order births?

BACKGROUND: A number of data sets show that high parity births are associated with higher child mortality than low parity births. The reasons for this relationship are not clear. In this paper we investigate whether high parity is associated with lower coverage of key health interventions that might lead to increased mortality. METHODS: We used DHS data from 10 high fertility countries to examine the relationship between parity and coverage for 8 child health intervention and 9 maternal health interventions. We also used the LiST model to estimate the effect on maternal and child mortality of the lower coverage associated with high parity births. RESULTS: Our results show a significant relationship between coverage of maternal and child health services and birth order, even when controlling for poverty. The association between coverage and parity for maternal health interventions was more consistently significant across countries all countries, while for child health interventions there were fewer overall significant relationships and more variation both between and within countries. The differences in coverage between children of parity 3 and those of parity 6 are large enough to account for a 12% difference in the under-five mortality rate and a 22% difference in maternal mortality ratio in the countries studied. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that coverage of key health interventions is lower for high parity children and the pattern is consistent across countries. This could be a partial explanation for the higher mortality rates associated with high parity. Actions to address this gap could help reduce the higher mortality experienced by high parity birth.