Recent cancer incidence trends in Ukraine and short-term predictions to 2022.

BACKGROUND: Using data from the National Cancer Registry of Ukraine (NCRU), we analyzed recent trends in incidence rates (2003-2012) and used these to predict the future cancer incidence burden up to 2022. METHODS: All cancer cases (excluding non-melanoma of skin) for the years 2003-2012 were retrieved from the NCRU's database (n = 1,459,851). Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were estimated and the numbers of new cases and incidence rates predicted for 2022 using age-period modeling. RESULTS: ASR increased from 2003 to 2012 for most cancers except lip and stomach cancers (in both sexes) and laryngeal and lung cancers (in males). Assuming these trends will continue, lung cancer will remain the most common male cancer in 2022 (ASR 40.5/100,000), followed by prostate cancer (36.8/100,000), colorectal cancer (34.6/100,000), and cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx (18.5/100,000). In females, the order of the four most common cancers will not change in 2022 compared with 2012, with cervical cancer remaining the fourth most common cancer (17.5/100,000). We predict an overall increase of 18 % in the number of cancer cases in Ukraine (relative to 2012) to 179,493 cases in 2022. CONCLUSION: The anticipated increase in the number of cancer patients in Ukraine clearly has knock-on effects on a healthcare system undergoing reforms. Tobacco control appears to be the only functioning aspect of cancer prevention in the country, and there is a need for a broader national cancer control plan. The continued monitoring and evaluation of implemented cancer control measures by the NCRU will help prioritize targets and allocate future resources to cancer services.

Evaluation of data quality at the National Cancer Registry of Ukraine.

BACKGROUND: Cancer notification has been mandatory in Ukraine since 1953, with the National Cancer Registry of Ukraine (NCRU) established in 1996. The aim of this study was to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the data quality at the NCRU. METHODS: Qualitative and semi-quantitative methods were used to assess the comparability, completeness, validity and timeliness of cancer incidence data from the NCRU for the period 2002-2012. RESULTS: Cancer registration procedures at the NCRU are in accordance with international standards and recommendations. Semi-quantitative methods suggested the NCRU's data was reasonably complete, although decreases in age-specific incidence and mortality rates in the elderly indicated some missing cases at older ages. The proportion of microscopically-verified cases increased from 73.6% in 2002 to 82.3% in 2012, with death-certificate-only (DCO) proportions stable at around 0.1% and unknown stage recorded in 9.6% of male and 7.5% of female solid tumours. Timeliness was considered acceptable, with reporting >99% complete within a turn-around time of 15 months. CONCLUSION: While timely reporting of national data reflects the advantages of a mandatory data collection system, a low DCO% and observed age-specific declines suggest possible underreporting of incidence and mortality data, particularly at older ages. Overall, the evaluation indicates that the data are reasonably comparable and thus may be used to describe the magnitude of the cancer burden in Ukraine. Given its central role in monitoring and evaluation of cancer control activities, ensuring the sustainability of NCRU operations throughout the process of healthcare system reform is of utmost importance.