Early prediction of treatment failure in severe community-acquired pneumonia: The PRoFeSs score.

PURPOSE: To identify a single/panel of biomarkers and to provide a point score that, after 48 h of treatment, could early predict treatment failure at fifth day of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) stay in severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP) patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Single-center, prospective cohort study of 107 ICU patients with SCAP. Primary outcome included death or absence of improvement in Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score by ≥2 points within 5 days of treatment. Biomarkers were evaluated within 12 h of first antibiotic dose (D1) and 48 h after the first assessment (D3). RESULTS: A model based on Charlson's score and a panel of biomarkers (procalcitonin on D1 and D3, B-natriuretic peptide on D1, D-dimer and lactate on D3) had good discrimination for primary outcome in both derivation (AUC 0.82) and validation (AUC 0.76) samples and was well calibrated (X2 = 0.98; df = 1; p = .32). A point score system (PRoFeSs score) built on the estimates of regression coefficients presented good discrimination (AUC 0.81; 95% Confidence Interval 0.72-0.89) for primary outcome. CONCLUSIONS: In SCAP, a combination of biomarkers measured at admission and 48 h later may early predict treatment failure. PRoFeSs score may recognize patients with poor short-term prognosis.

Can we predict pneumococcal bacteremia in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia?

PURPOSE: This study aimed to evaluate the role of biomarkers as markers of pneumococcal bacteremia in severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A prospective, single-center, observational cohort study of 108 patients with SCAP admitted to the intensive care department of a university hospital in Portugal was conducted. Leucocytes, C-reactive protein (CRP), lactate, procalcitonin (PCT), d-dimer, brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), and cortisol were measured within 12 hours after the first antibiotic dose. RESULTS: Fifteen patients (14%) had bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia (BPP). They had significantly higher levels of median CRP (301 [interquartile range, or IQR], 230-350] mg/L vs 201 [IQR, 103-299] mg/L; P = .023), PCT (40 [IQR, 25-102] ng/mL vs 8 [IQR, 2-26] ng/mL; P < .001), BNP (568 [IQR, 478-2841] pg/mL vs 407 [IQR, 175-989] pg/mL; P = .027), and lactate (5.5 [IQR, 4.5-9.8] mmol/L vs 3.1 [IQR, 1.9-6.2] mmol/L; P = .009) than did patients without BPP. The discriminatory power evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (aROC) for PCT (aROC, 0.79) was superior to lactate (aROC, 0.71), BNP (aROC, 0.67), and CRP (aROC, 0.70). At a cutoff point of 17 ng/mL, PCT showed a sensitivity of 87%, a specificity of 67%, a positive predictive value of 30% and a negative predictive value of 97%, as a marker of pneumococcal bacteremia. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort, significantly higher PCT, BNP, lactate, and CRP levels were found in BPP, and PCT presented the best ability to identify pneumococcal bacteremia. A PCT serum level lower than 17 ng/mL could identify patients with SCAP unlikely to have pneumococcal bacteremia.