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Environ Plan A ; 28(8): 1417-44, 1996 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-12291770

RESUMO

"The population of China is still growing despite a dramatic decline in fertility in the past two decades. There are marked urban-rural differentials in fertility and, as a result, the pace of urbanization has significant effects on population growth. In this research an attempt is made to model urban-rural population growth in China. A demoeconomic model of urban and rural sectors is calibrated to account for the long-term trend of urbanization in China.... An accounts-based urban-rural population model, in which rural to urban migration and transition are driven by the foregoing demoeconomic model, is established.... These models are used to make urban-rural population projections for the period 1988-2087 under various fertility rate assumptions."


PIP: China's population continues to grow despite a dramatic decline in fertility over the past two decades, with the rate of urbanization significantly affecting population growth. There are major urban-rural differentials in fertility in China. In the attempt to model urban-rural population growth in China, a demoeconomic model of urban and rural sectors was calibrated to account for the long-term trend of urbanization in China. Rural-to-urban migration and transition are considered as important components of urban population growth. An accounts-based urban-rural population model in which rural-to-urban migration and transition are driven by the demoeconomic model is developed. The models are then used to make urban-rural population projections for the period 1988-2087 under various fertility rate assumptions.


Assuntos
Fertilidade , Previsões , Modelos Teóricos , Dinâmica Populacional , Crescimento Demográfico , População Rural , Urbanização , Ásia , China , Demografia , Países em Desenvolvimento , Emigração e Imigração , Ásia Oriental , Geografia , População , Características da População , Pesquisa , Estatística como Assunto , População Urbana
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