Ecological filtering shapes the impacts of agricultural deforestation on biodiversity.

The biodiversity impacts of agricultural deforestation vary widely across regions. Previous efforts to explain this variation have focused exclusively on the landscape features and management regimes of agricultural systems, neglecting the potentially critical role of ecological filtering in shaping deforestation tolerance of extant species assemblages at large geographical scales via selection for functional traits. Here we provide a large-scale test of this role using a global database of species abundance ratios between matched agricultural and native forest sites that comprises 71 avian assemblages reported in 44 primary studies, and a companion database of 10 functional traits for all 2,647 species involved. Using meta-analytic, phylogenetic and multivariate methods, we show that beyond agricultural features, filtering by the extent of natural environmental variability and the severity of historical anthropogenic deforestation shapes the varying deforestation impacts across species assemblages. For assemblages under greater environmental variability-proxied by drier and more seasonal climates under a greater disturbance regime-and longer deforestation histories, filtering has attenuated the negative impacts of current deforestation by selecting for functional traits linked to stronger deforestation tolerance. Our study provides a previously largely missing piece of knowledge in understanding and managing the biodiversity consequences of deforestation by agricultural deforestation.

Uncertainties in deforestation emission baseline methodologies and implications for carbon markets.

Carbon credits generated through jurisdictional-scale avoided deforestation projects require accurate estimates of deforestation emission baselines, but there are serious challenges to their robustness. We assessed the variability, accuracy, and uncertainty of baselining methods by applying sensitivity and variable importance analysis on a range of typically-used methods and parameters for 2,794 jurisdictions worldwide. The median jurisdiction's deforestation emission baseline varied by 171% (90% range: 87%-440%) of its mean, with a median forecast error of 0.778 times (90% range: 0.548-3.56) the actual deforestation rate. Moreover, variable importance analysis emphasised the strong influence of the deforestation projection approach. For the median jurisdiction, 68.0% of possible methods (90% range: 61.1%-85.6%) exceeded 15% uncertainty. Tropical and polar biomes exhibited larger uncertainties in carbon estimations. The use of sensitivity analyses, multi-model, and multi-source ensemble approaches could reduce variabilities and biases. These findings provide a roadmap for improving baseline estimations to enhance carbon market integrity and trust.

Climate co-benefits of tiger conservation.

Biodiversity conservation is increasingly being recognized as an important co-benefit in climate change mitigation programmes that use nature-based climate solutions. However, the climate co-benefits of biodiversity conservation interventions, such as habitat protection and restoration, remain understudied. Here we estimate the forest carbon storage co-benefits of a national policy intervention for tiger (Panthera tigris) conservation in India. We used a synthetic control approach to model avoided forest loss and associated carbon emissions reductions in protected areas that underwent enhanced protection for tiger conservation. Over a third of the analysed reserves showed significant but mixed effects, where 24% of all reserves successfully reduced the rate of deforestation and the remaining 9% reported higher-than-expected forest loss. The policy had a net positive benefit with over 5,802 hectares of averted forest loss, corresponding to avoided emissions of 1.08 ± 0.51 MtCO2 equivalent between 2007 and 2020. This translated to US$92.55 ± 43.56 million in ecosystem services from the avoided social cost of emissions and potential revenue of US$6.24 ± 2.94 million in carbon offsets. Our findings offer an approach to quantitatively track the carbon sequestration co-benefits of a species conservation strategy and thus help align the objectives of climate action and biodiversity conservation.

Bird preferences for fruit size, but not color, vary in accordance with fruit traits along a tropical elevational gradient.

Birds constitute one of the most important seed dispersal agents globally, especially in the tropics. The feeding preferences of frugivorous birds are, therefore, potentially of great ecological importance. A number of laboratory-based and observational studies have attempted to ascertain the preferences of certain bird species for certain fruit traits. However, little attention has been paid to community-wide preferences of frugivorous birds and the impact this may have on fruit traits on a broader scale. Here, we used artificial fruits of different colors and sizes to investigate community-wide fruit trait preferences of birds at three sites along an elevational gradient in Papua New Guinea. We recorded attack rates on artificial fruits as visible impressions made by a bird's beak during a feeding attempt. We also measured the colors and sizes of real fruits at each site, and the gape widths of frugivorous birds, allowing for comparisons between bird feeding preferences and bird and fruit traits. Regardless of elevation, red and purple fruits were universally preferred to green and attacked at similar rates to one another, despite strong elevational patterns in real fruit color. However, elevation had a significant effect on fruit size preferences. A weak, non-significant preference for large fruits was recorded at 700 m, while medium fruits were strongly preferred at 1700 m and small fruits at 2700 m. These patterns mirror those of both real fruit size and frugivorous bird gape width along the gradient, suggesting the potential for selective pressure of birds on fruit size at different elevations.

Large-scale reforestation can increase water yield and reduce drought risk for water-insecure regions in the Asia-Pacific.

Large-scale reforestation can potentially bring both benefits and risks to the water cycle, which needs to be better quantified under future climates to inform reforestation decisions. We identified 477 water-insecure basins worldwide accounting for 44.6% (380.2 Mha) of the global reforestation potential. As many of these basins are in the Asia-Pacific, we used regional coupled land-climate modeling for the period 2041-2070 to reveal that reforestation increases evapotranspiration and precipitation for most water-insecure regions over the Asia-Pacific. This resulted in a statistically significant increase in water yield (p < .05) for the Loess Plateau-North China Plain, Yangtze Plain, Southeast China, and Irrawaddy regions. Precipitation feedback was influenced by the degree of initial moisture limitation affecting soil moisture response and thus evapotranspiration, as well as precipitation advection from other reforested regions and moisture transport away from the local region. Reforestation also reduces the probability of extremely dry months in most of the water-insecure regions. However, some regions experience nonsignificant declines in net water yield due to heightened evapotranspiration outstripping increases in precipitation, or declines in soil moisture and advected precipitation.

Future land-use competition constrains natural climate solutions.

Natural climate solutions (NCS) are an essential complement to climate mitigation and have been increasingly incorporated into international mitigation strategies. Yet, with the ongoing population growth, allocating natural areas for NCS may compete with other socioeconomic priorities, especially urban development and food security. Here, we projected the impacts of land-use competition incurred by cropland and urban expansion on the climate mitigation potential of NCS. We mapped the areas available for implementing 9 key NCS strategies and estimated their climate change mitigation potential. Then, we overlaid these areas with future cropland and urban expansion maps projected under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (2020-2100) and calculated the resulting mitigation potential loss of each selected NCS strategy. Our results estimate a substantial reduction, 0.3-2.8 GtCO2 yr-1 or 4-39 %, in NCS mitigation potential, of which cropland expansion for fulfilling future food demand is the primary cause. This impact is particularly severe in the tropics where NCS hold the most abundant mitigation potential. Our findings highlight immediate actions prioritized to tropical areas are important to best realize NCS and are key to developing realistic and sustainable climate policies.

Great tits (Parus major) flexibly learn that herbivore-induced plant volatiles indicate prey location: An experimental evidence with two tree species.

When searching for food, great tits (Parus major) can use herbivore-induced plant volatiles (HIPVs) as an indicator of arthropod presence. Their ability to detect HIPVs was shown to be learned, and not innate, yet the flexibility and generalization of learning remain unclear.We studied if, and if so how, naïve and trained great tits (Parus major) discriminate between herbivore-induced and noninduced saplings of Scotch elm (Ulmus glabra) and cattley guava (Psidium cattleyanum). We chemically analyzed the used plants and showed that their HIPVs differed significantly and overlapped only in a few compounds.Birds trained to discriminate between herbivore-induced and noninduced saplings preferred the herbivore-induced saplings of the plant species they were trained to. Naïve birds did not show any preferences. Our results indicate that the attraction of great tits to herbivore-induced plants is not innate, rather it is a skill that can be acquired through learning, one tree species at a time.We demonstrate that the ability to learn to associate HIPVs with food reward is flexible, expressed to both tested plant species, even if the plant species has not coevolved with the bird species (i.e., guava). Our results imply that the birds are not capable of generalizing HIPVs among tree species but suggest that they either learn to detect individual compounds or associate whole bouquets with food rewards.

Endemicity and land-use type influence the abundance-range-size relationship of birds on a tropical island.

A single adverse environment event can threaten the survival of small-ranged species while random fluctuations in population size increase the extinction risk of less-abundant species. The abundance-range-size relationship (ARR) is usually positive, which means that smaller-ranged species are often of low abundance and might face both problems simultaneously. The ARR has been reported to be negative on tropical islands, perhaps allowing endemic species in such environments to remain extant. But there is a need to understand how endemism and land-use interact to shape ARR. Using 41 highly replicated transects along the full elevational gradient of Sri Lanka, we determined the following: (a) the direction of ARR, (b) if endemism affects ARR and (c) if land-use (rainforest, buffer and agriculture) changes ARR differently for endemics and non-endemics. Additionally, (d) we identified endemics that had both lower abundances and smaller range sizes, and ranked them from most threatened (specific to rainforests) to least threatened using a weighted-interaction nestedness estimator. (a) We found a positive relationship between species abundances and range size. This positive ARR was maintained among endemic and non-endemic species, across land-use types and at local and regional scales. (b) The ARR interacted with endemicity and land-use. Endemics with smaller range sizes had higher abundances than non-endemics, and particularly higher in rainforests compared to agriculture. In contrast, species with larger range sizes had similar abundances across endemicity and land-use categories. Many endemics with smaller range sizes are globally threatened; therefore, higher abundances may buffer them from extinction risks. (c) Nine (29%) endemics had both below average abundance and elevational range size. The nestedness estimator ranked the endemics Sri Lanka Whistling Thrush Myophonus blighi, Red-faced Malkoha Phaenicophaeus pyrrhocephalus, Sri Lanka Thrush Zoothera imbricata and White-faced Starling Sturnornis albofrontus as the four most vulnerable species to local extinction risk, which corresponds to their global extinction risk. We demonstrate that ARR can be positive on tropical islands, but it is influenced by endemism and land-use. Examining shifts in ARR is not only important to understand community dynamics but can also act as a tool to inform managers about species that require monitoring programmes.

Drivers of bird beta diversity in the Western Ghats-Sri Lanka biodiversity hotspot are scale dependent: roles of land use, climate, and distance.

In the last 50 years, intensive agriculture has replaced large tracts of rainforests. Such changes in land use are driving niche-based ecological processes that determine local community assembly. However, little is known about the relative importance of these anthropogenic niche-based processes, in comparison to climatic niche-based processes and spatial processes such as dispersal limitation. In this study, we use a variation partitioning approach to determine the relative importance of land-use change (ranked value of forest loss), climatic variation (temperature and precipitation), and distance between transects, on bird beta diversity at two different spatial scales within the Western Ghats-Sri Lanka biodiversity hotspot. Our results show that the drivers of local community assembly are scale dependent. At the larger spatial scale, distance was more important than climate and land use for bird species composition, suggesting that dispersal limitation over the Palk Strait, which separates the Western Ghats and Sri Lanka, is the main driver of local community assembly. At the smaller scale, climate was more important than land use, suggesting the importance of climatic niches. Therefore, to conserve all species in a biodiversity hotspot, it is important to consider geographic barriers and climatic variation along with land-use change.

Spatial scale changes the relationship between beta diversity, species richness and latitude.

The relationship between ß-diversity and latitude still remains to be a core question in ecology because of the lack of consensus between studies. One hypothesis for the lack of consensus between studies is that spatial scale changes the relationship between latitude and ß-diversity. Here, we test this hypothesis using tree data from 15 large-scale forest plots (greater than or equal to 15 ha, diameter at breast height ≥ 1 cm) across a latitudinal gradient (3-30o) in the Asia-Pacific region. We found that the observed ß-diversity decreased with increasing latitude when sampling local tree communities at small spatial scale (grain size ≤0.1 ha), but the observed ß-diversity did not change with latitude when sampling at large spatial scales (greater than or equal to 0.25 ha). Differences in latitudinal ß-diversity gradients across spatial scales were caused by pooled species richness (γ-diversity), which influenced observed ß-diversity values at small spatial scales, but not at large spatial scales. Therefore, spatial scale changes the relationship between ß-diversity, γ-diversity and latitude, and improving sample representativeness avoids the γ-dependence of ß-diversity.

Horizontal and vertical species turnover in tropical birds in habitats with differing land use.

Large tracts of tropical rainforests are being converted into intensive agricultural lands. Such anthropogenic disturbances are known to reduce species turnover across horizontal distances. But it is not known if they can also reduce species turnover across vertical distances (elevation), which have steeper climatic differences. We measured turnover in birds across horizontal and vertical sampling transects in three land-use types of Sri Lanka: protected forest, reserve buffer and intensive-agriculture, from 90 to 2100 m a.s.l. Bird turnover rates across horizontal distances were similar across all habitats, and much less than vertical turnover rates. Vertical turnover rates were not similar across habitats. Forest had higher turnover rates than the other two habitats for all bird species. Buffer and intensive-agriculture had similar turnover rates, even though buffer habitats were situated at the forest edge. Therefore, our results demonstrate the crucial importance of conserving primary forest across the full elevational range available.

Impacts of hunting on tropical forests in Southeast Asia.

Although deforestation and forest degradation have long been considered the most significant threats to tropical biodiversity, across Southeast Asia (Northeast India, Indochina, Sundaland, Philippines) substantial areas of natural habitat have few wild animals (>1 kg), bar a few hunting-tolerant species. To document hunting impacts on vertebrate populations regionally, we conducted an extensive literature review, including papers in local journals and reports of governmental and nongovernmental agencies. Evidence from multiple sites indicated animal populations declined precipitously across the region since approximately 1980, and many species are now extirpated from substantial portions of their former ranges. Hunting is by far the greatest immediate threat to the survival of most of the region's endangered vertebrates. Causes of recent overhunting include improved access to forests and markets, improved hunting technology, and escalating demand for wild meat, wildlife-derived medicinal products, and wild animals as pets. Although hunters often take common species, such as pigs or rats, for their own consumption, they take rarer species opportunistically and sell surplus meat and commercially valuable products. There is also widespread targeted hunting of high-value species. Consequently, as currently practiced, hunting cannot be considered sustainable anywhere in the region, and in most places enforcement of protected-area and protected-species legislation is weak. The international community's focus on cross-border trade fails to address overexploitation of wildlife because hunting and the sale of wild meat is largely a local issue and most of the harvest is consumed in villages, rural towns, and nearby cities. In addition to improved enforcement, efforts to engage hunters and manage wildlife populations through sustainable hunting practices are urgently needed. Unless there is a step change in efforts to reduce wildlife exploitation to sustainable levels, the region will likely lose most of its iconic species, and many others besides, within the next few years.

Effects of forest fragmentation on nocturnal Asian birds: A case study from Xishuangbanna, China.

Owls have the potential to be keystone species for conservation in fragmented landscapes, as the absence of these predators could profoundly change community structure. Yet few studies have examined how whole communities of owls respond to fragmentation, especially in the tropics. When evaluating the effect of factors related to fragmentation, such as fragment area and distance to the edge, on these birds, it is also important in heterogeneous landscapes to ask how 'location factors' such as the topography, vegetation and soil of the fragment predict their persistence. In Xishuangbanna, southwest China, we established 43 transects (200 m×60 m) within 20 forest fragments to sample nocturnal birds, both visually and aurally. We used a multimodel inference approach to identify the factors that influence owl species richness, and generalized linear mixed models to predict the occurrence probabilities of each species. We found that fragmentation factors dominated location factors, with larger fragments having more species, and four of eight species were significantly more likely to occur in large fragments. Given the potential importance of these birds on regulating small mammal and other animal populations, and thus indirectly affecting seed dispersal, we suggest further protection of large fragments and programs to increase their connectivity to the remaining smaller fragments.

Effects of forests, roads and mistletoe on bird diversity in monoculture rubber plantations.

Rising global demand for natural rubber is expanding monoculture rubber (Hevea brasilensis) at the expense of natural forests in the Old World tropics. Conversion of forests into rubber plantations has a devastating impact on biodiversity and we have yet to identify management strategies that can mitigate this. We determined the life-history traits that best predict bird species occurrence in rubber plantations in SW China and investigated the effects of surrounding forest cover and distance to roads on bird diversity. Mistletoes provide nectar and fruit resources in rubber so we examined mistletoe densities and the relationship with forest cover and rubber tree diameter. In rubber plantations, we recorded less than half of all bird species extant in the surrounding area. Birds with wider habitat breadths and low conservation value had a higher probability of occurrence. Species richness and diversity increased logarithmically with surrounding forest cover, but roads had little effect. Mistletoe density increased exponentially with rubber tree diameters, but was unrelated to forest cover. To maximize bird diversity in rubber-dominated landscapes it is therefore necessary to preserve as much forest as possible, construct roads through plantations and not forest, and retain some large rubber trees with mistletoes during crop rotations.

The effect of land-use on the diversity and mass-abundance relationships of understory avian insectivores in Sri Lanka and southern India.

Understory avian insectivores are especially sensitive to deforestation, although regional differences in how these species respond to human disturbance may be linked to varying land-use histories. South Asia experienced widespread conversion of forest to agriculture in the nineteenth century, providing a comparison to tropical areas deforested more recently. In Sri Lanka and the Western Ghats of India, we compared understory insectivores to other guilds, and to insectivores with different vertical strata preferences, both inside mixed-species flocks and for the whole bird community. Overall species richness did not change across the land-use gradient, although there was substantial turnover in species composition between land-use types. We found that the proportion of species represented by insectivores was ~1.14 times higher in forest compared to agriculture, and the proportion of insectivores represented by understory species was ~1.32 times higher in forests. Mass-abundance relationships were very different when analyzed on mixed-species flocks compared to the total community, perhaps indicating reduced competition in these mutualisms. We show that South Asia fits the worldwide pattern of understory insectivores declining with increased land-use intensity, and conclude that these species can be used globally as indicator and/or umbrella species for conservation across different disturbance time scales.

Yet another empty forest: considering the conservation value of a recently established tropical nature reserve.

The primary approach used to conserve tropical biodiversity is in the establishment of protected areas. However, many tropical nature reserves are performing poorly and interventions in the broader landscape may be essential for conserving biodiversity both within reserves and at large. Between October 2010 and 2012, we conducted bird surveys in and around a recently established nature reserve in Xishuangbanna, China. We constructed a checklist of observed species, previously recorded species, and species inferred to have occurred in the area from their distributions and habitat requirements. In addition, we assessed variation in community composition and habitat specificity at a landscape-scale. Despite the fact that the landscape supports a large area of natural forest habitat (~50,000 ha), we estimate that >40% of the bird fauna has been extirpated and abundant evidence suggests hunting is the primary cause. A large proportion (52%) of the bigger birds (>20 cm) were extirpated and for large birds there was a U-shaped relationship between habitat breadth and extirpation probability. Habitat specificity was low and bird communities were dominated by widespread species of limited conservation concern. We question whether extending tropical protected area networks will deliver desired conservation gains, unless much greater effort is channeled into addressing the hunting problem both within existing protected areas and in the broader landscape.

Influence of gaze and directness of approach on the escape responses of the Indian rock lizard, Psammophilus dorsalis (Gray, 1831).

Animals often evaluate the degree of risk posed by a predator and respond accordingly. Since many predators orient their eyes towards prey while attacking, predator gaze and directness of approach could serve as conspicuous indicators of risk to prey. The ability to perceive these cues and discriminate between high and low predation risk should benefit prey species through both higher survival and decreased energy expenditure. We experimentally examined whether Indian rock lizards (Psammophilus dorsalis) can perceive these two indicators of predation risk by measuring the variation in their fleeing behaviour in response to type of gaze and approach by a human predator. Overall, we found that the gaze and approach of the predator influenced flight initiation distance, which also varied with attributes of the prey (i.e. size/sex and tail-raise behaviour). Flight initiation distance (FID) was 43 percent longer during direct approaches with direct gaze compared with tangential approaches with averted gaze. In further, exploratory, analyses, we found that FID was 23 percent shorter for adult male lizards than for female or young male (FYM) lizards. In addition, FYM lizards that showed a tail-raise display during approach had a 71 percent longer FID than those that did not. Our results suggest that multiple factors influence the decision to flee in animals. Further studies are needed to test the generality of these factors and to investigate the proximate mechanisms underlying flight decisions.

Natural windbreaks sustain bird diversity in a tea-dominated landscape.

Windbreaks often form networks of forest habitats that improve connectivity and thus conserve biodiversity, but little is known of such effects in the tropics. We determined bird species richness and community composition in windbreaks composed of remnant native vegetation amongst tea plantations (natural windbreaks), and compared it with the surrounding primary forests. Fifty-one, ten-minute point counts were conducted in each habitat type over three days. Despite the limited sampling period, our bird inventories in both natural windbreaks and primary forests were nearly complete, as indicated by bootstrap true richness estimator. Bird species richness and abundance between primary forests and windbreaks were similar, however a difference in bird community composition was observed. Abundances of important functional groups such as frugivores and insectivores did not vary between habitat types but nectarivores were more abundant in windbreaks, potentially as a result of the use of windbreaks as traveling routes, foraging and nesting sites. This preliminary study suggests that natural windbreaks may be important habitats for the persistence of bird species in a production landscape. However, a better understanding of the required physical and compositional characteristics for windbreaks to sustain bird communities is needed for effective conservation management.

Photographic capture-recapture sampling for assessing populations of the Indian gliding lizard Draco dussumieri.

The usage of invasive tagging methods to assess lizard populations has often been criticised, due to the potential negative effects of marking, which possibly cause increased mortality or altered behaviour. The development of safe, less invasive techniques is essential for improved ecological study and conservation of lizard populations. In this study, we describe a photographic capture-recapture (CR) technique for estimating Draco dussumieri (Agamidae) populations. We used photographs of the ventral surface of the patagium to identify individuals. To establish that the naturally occurring blotches remained constant through time, we compared capture and recapture photographs of 45 pen-marked individuals after a 30 day interval. No changes in blotches were observed and individual lizards could be identified with 100% accuracy. The population density of D. dussumieri in a two hectare areca-nut plantation was estimated using the CR technique with ten sampling occasions over a ten day period. The resulting recapture histories for 24 individuals were analysed using population models in the program CAPTURE. All models indicated that nearly all individuals were captured. The estimated probability for capturing D. dussumieri on at least one occasion was 0.92 and the estimated population density was 13±1.65 lizards/ha. Our results demonstrate the potential for applying CR to population studies in gliding lizards (Draco spp.) and other species with distinctive markings.