Progress towards the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets in the Fifth Botswana AIDS Impact Survey (BAIS V 2021): a nationally representative survey.

BACKGROUND: In 2014, UNAIDS set a goal to end the AIDS epidemic by achieving targets for the percentage of people living with HIV who were aware of their status, on antiretroviral therapy (ART), and virally suppressed. In 2020, these targets were revised to 95% for each measure (known as 95-95-95), to be reached among people living with HIV by 2025. We used data from the Fifth Botswana AIDS Impact Survey (BAIS V) to measure progress towards these testing and treatment targets in Botswana. METHODS: BAIS V used a two-stage cluster design to obtain a nationally representative sample of people aged 15-64 years in Botswana. During March-August, 2021, 14 763 consenting participants were interviewed and tested for HIV in their households by survey teams. HIV-positive specimens were tested for viral load, presence of antiretroviral drugs, and recency of infection using the HIV-1 limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay. Estimates of HIV-positive status and use of ART were based on self-report and the analysis of blood specimens for antiretroviral drugs. Viral load suppression was defined as an HIV RNA concentration of less than 1000 copies per mL. HIV incidence was calculated using the recent infection testing algorithm. Data were weighted to account for the complex survey design. FINDINGS: The national HIV prevalence in Botswana among people aged 15-64 years was 20·8% and the annual incidence of HIV infection was 0·2%. 95·1% (men 93·0%, women 96·4%) of people living with HIV aged 15-64 years were aware of their status, 98·0% (men 97·2%, women 98·4%) of those aware were on ART, and 97·9% (men 96·6%, women 98·6%) of those on ART had viral load suppression. Among young people (aged 15-24 years) living with HIV, 84·5% were aware of their status, 98·5% of those aware were on ART, and 91·6% of those on ART had viral load suppression. The prevalance of viral load suppression among all people living with HIV was 91·8%, and varied by district-ranging from 85·3% in Gaborone to 100·0% in Selibe Phikwe. INTERPRETATION: BAIS V is the first population-based survey worldwide to report the achievement of the UNAIDS 95-95-95 goals, both overall and among women. Strategies to reach undiagnosed men and young people, including young women, are needed. FUNDING: US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.

Prevalence, trends, and factors associated with maternal autonomy regarding healthcare, finances, and mobility in Bangladesh: Analysis of Demographic and Health Surveys 1999-2018.

Maternal autonomy is associated with improved healthcare utilization/outcomes for mothers and babies in low- and middle-income countries. We investigated the trends in the prevalence and factors associated with maternal autonomy in Bangladesh. This cross-sectional study analyzed the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey for 1999-00, 2004, 2007, 2011, 2014, and 2017-18. Maternal autonomy was defined as at least one decision-making ability regarding healthcare, large household purchases, and freedom of mobility. We included 15-49-year-old mothers with at least one live-birth in the past three years. We compared the samples based on the presence of autonomy and reported the trends in prevalence (95% confidence intervals (CIs)) across the survey years. Lastly, we performed multilevel logistic regression to report prevalence odds ratios (PORs) for the associated factors. Variables investigated as potential factors included maternal age, number of children, maternal education, paternal education, current work, religion, mass media exposure, wealth quintile, place and division of residence, and survey years. The prevalence of 'any' maternal autonomy was 72.0% (95% CI: 70.5-73.5) in 1999-00 and increased to 83.8% (95% CI: 82.7-84.9) in 2017-18. In adjusted analysis, mothers with older age, higher education, work outside the home, and mass media exposure had higher odds of autonomy than their counterparts (POR > 1, p < 0.05). For instance, compared to mothers without any formal education, the odds of autonomy were significantly (p < 0.001) higher among mothers with primary (adjusted POR: 1.2, 95% CI: 1.1-1.4), secondary (adjusted POR: 1.4, 95% CI: 1.2-1.6), and college/above (adjusted POR: 1.9, 95% CI: 1.6-2.2) education. While the level of maternal autonomy has increased, a substantial proportion still do not have autonomy. Expanding educational and earning opportunities may increase maternal autonomy. Further research should investigate other ways to improve it as well.

Comparison of HIV prevalence, incidence, and viral load suppression in Zambia population-based HIV impact assessments from 2016 and 2021.

BACKGROUND: The Zambian government has implemented a public health response to control the HIV epidemic in the country. Zambia conducted a population-based HIV impact assessment (ZAMPHIA) survey in 2021 to assess the status of the HIV epidemic to guide its public health programs. METHODS: ZAMPHIA 2021 was a cross-sectional two-stage cluster sample household survey among persons aged ≥15 years conducted in Zambia across all 10 provinces. Consenting participants were administered a standardized questionnaire and whole blood was tested for HIV according to national guidelines. HIV-1 viral load (VL), recent HIV infection, and antiretroviral medications were tested for in HIV-seropositive samples. Viral load suppression (VLS) was defined as <1000 copies/ml. ZAMPHIA 2021 results were compared to ZAMPHIA 2016 for persons aged 15-59 years (i.e., the overlapping age ranges). All estimates were weighted to account for nonresponse and survey design. RESULTS: During ZAMPHIA 2021, of 25 483 eligible persons aged ≥15 years, 18 804 (73.8%) were interviewed and tested for HIV. HIV prevalence was 11.0% and VLS prevalence was 86.2% overall, but was <80% among people living with HIV aged 15-24 years and in certain provinces. Among persons aged 15-59 years, from 2016 to 2021, HIV incidence declined from 0.6% to 0.3% ( P -value: 0.07) and VLS prevalence increased from 59.2% to 85.7% ( P -value: <0.01). DISCUSSION: Zambia has made substantial progress toward controlling the HIV epidemic from 2016 to 2021. Continued implementation of a test-and-treat strategy, with attention to groups with lower VLS in the ZAMPHIA 2021, could support reductions in HIV incidence and improve overall VLS in Zambia.

Risk Factors for Recent HIV Infections among Adults in 14 Countries in Africa Identified by Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment Surveys, 2015-2019.

Identifying persons who have newly acquired HIV infections is critical for characterizing the HIV epidemic direction. We analyzed pooled data from nationally representative Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment surveys conducted across 14 countries in Africa for recent infection risk factors. We included adults 15-49 years of age who had sex during the previous year and used a recent infection testing algorithm to distinguish recent from long-term infections. We collected risk factor information via participant interviews and assessed correlates of recent infection using multinomial logistic regression, incorporating each survey's complex sampling design. Compared with HIV-negative persons, persons with higher odds of recent HIV infection were women, were divorced/separated/widowed, had multiple recent sex partners, had a recent HIV-positive sex partner or one with unknown status, and lived in communities with higher HIV viremia prevalence. Prevention programs focusing on persons at higher risk for HIV and their sexual partners will contribute to reducing HIV incidence.

Factors associated with enrollment into differentiated service delivery model among adults with HIV in Kenya.

INTRODUCTION: Differentiated service delivery (DSD) such as multimonth dispensing (MMD) aims to provide client-centered HIV services, while reducing the workload within health facilities. We assessed individual and facility factors associated with receiving more than three MMD and switching from ≥3MMD back to <3MMD in Kenya. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of clients eligible for DSD between July 2017 and December 2019. A random sample of clients eligible for DSD was selected from 32 randomly selected facilities located in Nairobi, Kisii, and Migori counties. We used a multilevel Poisson regression model to assess the factors associated with receiving ≥3MMD, and with switching from ≥3MMD back to <3MMD. RESULTS: A total of 3501 clients eligible for ≥3MMD were included in our analysis: 1808 (51.6%) were receiving care in Nairobi County and the remaining 1693 (48.4%) in Kisii and Migori counties. Overall, 65% of clients were enrolled in ≥3MMD at the time of entry into the cohort. In the multivariable model, younger age (20-24; 25-29; 30-34 vs. 50 or more years) and switching ART regimen was significantly associated with a lower likelihood of ≥3MMD uptake. Factors associated with a higher likelihood of enrollment in ≥3MMD included receiving DTG vs. EFV-based ART regimen (aRR: 1.10; 95% confidence interval: 1.05-1.15). CONCLUSION: Client-level characteristics are associated with being on ≥3MMD and the likelihood of switching from ≥3MMD to <3MMD. Monitoring DSD enrollment across different populations is critical to successfully implementing these models continually.

Effect of Test and Treat on clinical outcomes in Nigeria: A national retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: In Nigeria, results from the pilot of the Test and Treat strategy showed higher loss to follow up (LTFU) among people living with HIV compared to before its implementation. The aim of this evaluation was to assess the effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation within 14 days on LTFU at 12 months and viral suppression. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using routinely collected de-identified patient-level data hosted on the Nigeria National Data Repository from 1,007 facilities. The study population included people living with HIV age ≥15. We used multivariable Cox proportional frailty hazard models to assess time to LTFU comparing ART initiation strategy and multivariable log-binomial regression for viral suppression. RESULTS: Overall, 26,937 (38.13%) were LTFU at 12 months. Among individuals initiated within 14 days, 38.4% were LTFU by 12 months compared to 35.4% for individuals initiated >14 days (p<0.001). In the adjusted analysis, individuals who were initiated ≤14 days after HIV diagnosis had a higher hazard of being LTFU (aHR 1.15, 95% CI 1.10-1.20) than individuals initiated after 14 days of HIV diagnosis. Among individuals with viral load results, 86.2% were virally suppressed. The adjusted risk ratio for viral suppression among individuals who were initiated ≤14 days compared to >14 days was not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: LTFU was higher among individuals who were initiated within 14 days compared to greater than 14 days after HIV diagnosis. There was no difference for viral suppression. The provision of early tailored interventions to support newly diagnosed people living may contribute to reducing LTFU.

From Paper Files to Web-Based Application for Data-Driven Monitoring of HIV Programs: Nigeria's Journey to a National Data Repository for Decision-Making and Patient Care.

BACKGROUND: Timely and reliable data are crucial for clinical, epidemiologic, and program management decision making. Electronic health information systems provide platforms for managing large longitudinal patient records. Nigeria implemented the National Data Repository (NDR) to create a central data warehouse of all people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) while providing useful functionalities to aid decision making at different levels of program implementation. OBJECTIVE: We describe the Nigeria NDR and its development process, including its use for surveillance, research, and national HIV program monitoring toward achieving HIV epidemic control. METHODS: Stakeholder engagement meetings were held in 2013 to gather information on data elements and vocabulary standards for reporting patient-level information, technical infrastructure, human capacity requirements, and information flow. Findings from these meetings guided the development of the NDR. An implementation guide provided common terminologies and data reporting structures for data exchange between the NDR and the electronic medical record (EMR) systems. Data from the EMR were encoded in extensible markup language and sent to the NDR over secure hypertext transfer protocol after going through a series of validation processes. RESULTS: By June 30, 2021, the NDR had up-to-date records of 1,477,064 (94.4%) patients receiving HIV treatment across 1,985 health facilities, of which 1,266,512 (85.7%) patient records had fingerprint template data to support unique patient identification and record linkage to prevent registration of the same patient under different identities. Data from the NDR was used to support HIV program monitoring, case-based surveillance and production of products like the monthly lists of patients who have treatment interruptions and dashboards for monitoring HIV test and start. CONCLUSION: The NDR enabled the availability of reliable and timely data for surveillance, research, and HIV program monitoring to guide program improvements to accelerate progress toward epidemic control.

Development of a value-based care and population health internship for student pharmacists.

INTRODUCTION: Pharmacists assist in achieving desired outcomes and reducing costs of care within newer value-based payment models. The purpose of this article is to describe a summer internship for first- and second-year student pharmacists to gain exposure to value-based care. METHODS: University Health Network is a clinically integrated health network and accountable care organization in East Tennessee. Two student interns completed consecutive seven-week programs alongside clinical pharmacist specialists in the primary care settings of the network. Program requirements included direct patient care for chronic disease state management, topic discussions, formal writing assignments and presentations, and a quality improvement project. Student perception of internship activities was measured using a Likert type survey and free response questionnaire. RESULTS: Student interns responded positively to program requirements with feelings of enhanced preparedness for advanced pharmacy practice experiences and post-graduate residency positions. Additionally, interns perceived themselves as more competitive for post-graduate positions having completed the internship. CONCLUSIONS: As the US continues to move toward value-based payment models, student pharmacists must be well prepared to contribute to quality and population health initiatives. Student pharmacists benefit from an internship in a clinically integrated health network by gaining an improved understanding of the future of United States healthcare, an expanded clinical skillset, experience in demonstrating a pharmacist's value to the healthcare team, and the ability to overcome barriers to pharmacy services. A pharmacy internship within a clinically integrated health network may help prepare students to successfully contribute to value-based models of healthcare.

Factors associated with viral suppression among adults living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in Nigeria: Analysis of a population-based survey, 2018.

OBJECTIVE: Viral load suppression (VLS) is critical in reducing morbidity and mortality associated with HIV as well as minimizing the likelihood of HIV transmission to uninfected persons. The objective of this study was to identify factors associated with VLS among people living with HIV (PLWH) on antiretroviral (ARV) therapy to inform HIV programme strategies in Nigeria. METHODS: Adult participants, aged 15-64 years, from the 2018 Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS), who self-reported to be a PLWH or had detectable ARVs, were analysed to examine factors associated with VLS defined as HIV RNA <1000 copies/mL. NAIIS measured HIV prevalence, viral load, ARV and hepatitis B in PLWH. Logistic regression models were used and reported weighted prevalence. RESULTS: Of 1322 participants, 949 (68.25%) were women and 1287 (96.82%) had detectable ARVs. The median age was 39.31 [interquartile range (IQR): 31.47-47.63] years. Prevalence of VLS was 80.88%. Compared with participants with detectable ARVs, those with undetectable ARVs in their blood specimens had lower odds of VLS [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.24, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.08-0.64). Coinfection with hepatitis B and nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor metabolites were also associated with lower odds of VLS. Older people (45-54 vs 15-24 years) had increased odds of VLS (aOR = 2.81, 95% CI: 1.14-6.90). CONCLUSION: Young people and those with undetectable ARVs had lower odds of virological suppression. Targeted interventions focusing on young people and adherence to medication are needed to achieve the UNAIDS 95-95-95 goals for HIV epidemic control.

Intersectionality of Socioecological Factors Associated With Cognitive Function Among Older Women With HIV in the United States: A Structural Equation Model Analysis Using Data From the Women's Interagency HIV Study.

ABSTRACT: Increased life expectancy of people with HIV has health implications including the intersection of the long-term use of antiretroviral treatment, inflammatory events, and age-related immunosenescence. In a cross-sectional study utilizing using the Socio-Eecological Model, we identified pathways of cognitive function (CF) among 448 women with HIV, 50 years and older. A structural equation model showed the direct effects of mood (ß = -0.25, p < .01), comorbidities (ß = --0.13, p < .05), race (ß = --0.13, p < .05), and abuse (ß = 0.27, p < .001) on the latent variable CF. Substance and alcohol use, depressive symptoms, cigarette smoking, and the number of comorbidities are important considerations when designing interventions utilizing using a multi-level and intersectional lens to maximize positive CF outcomes.

Comparison of one single-antigen assay and three multi-antigen SARS-CoV-2 IgG assays in Nigeria.

Objectives: Determining an accurate estimate of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence has been challenging in African countries where malaria and other pathogens are endemic. We compared the performance of one single-antigen assay and three multi-antigen SARS-CoV-2 IgG assays in a Nigerian population endemic for malaria. Methods: De-identified plasma specimens from SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR positive, dried blood spot (DBS) SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR positive, and pre-pandemic negatives were used to evaluate the performance of the four SARS-CoV-2 assays (Tetracore, SARS2MBA, RightSign, xMAP). Results: Results showed higher sensitivity with the multi-antigen (81% (Tetracore), 96% (SARS2MBA), 85% (xMAP)) versus the single-antigen (RightSign (64%)) SARS-CoV-2 assay. The overall specificities were 98% (Tetracore), 100% (SARS2MBA and RightSign), and 99% (xMAP). When stratified based on <15 days to ≥15 days post-RT-PCR confirmation, the sensitivities increased from 75% to 88.2% for Tetracore; from 93% to 100% for the SARS2MBA; from 58% to 73% for RightSign; and from 83% to 88% for xMAP. With DBS, there was no positive increase after 15-28 days for the three assays (Tetracore, SARS2MBA, and xMAP). Conclusion: Multi-antigen assays performed well in Nigeria, even with samples with known malaria reactivity, and might provide more accurate measures of COVID-19 seroprevalence and vaccine efficacy.

Prevalence of HIV drug resistance in Nigeria: results from a cross-sectional, population-based survey of Nigerian adults with unsuppressed viral load.

BACKGROUND: HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) surveillance is an important tool to monitor threats to progress towards epidemic control. The characterization of HIVDR in Nigeria at the national level is needed to inform both clinical decisions and population-level HIV policy strategies. This study uses data obtained from the Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS) to describe the prevalence and distribution of HIVDR in Nigeria. METHODS: NAIIS was a cross-sectional, population-based survey of households throughout Nigeria in 2018. NAIIS was designed to provide estimates of HIV prevalence and related health indicators from a nationally representative sample. The study population included participants aged 15-64 years who tested positive for HIV, had a viral load at least 1000 copies/ml, and had available HIV drug resistance genotypes. HIV isolates were genotyped to detect drug resistance mutations. Individual characteristics of study participants associated with HIVDR were identified using a weighted multivariable logistic regression model. RESULTS: Of 1355 respondents with available HIV genotypes, 293 (19%) had evidence of drug-resistant mutations (DRMs) that conferred resistance to at least one antiretroviral drug. The majority of DRMs observed conferred resistance to NNRTIs (17.6%) and NRTIs (11.2%). HIVDR was associated with being ART-experienced, longer duration on ART, and lower CD4+ count but not sociodemographic characteristics. CONCLUSION: The population level DRM prevalence in Nigeria was consistent with what would be expected in a mature HIV treatment landscape. The continued roll out of dolutegravir-anchored regimens should mitigate the impact of NNRTI resistance on population viral load suppression and progress towards epidemic control.

Individual and household factors associated with non-disclosure of positive HIV status in a population-based HIV serosurvey.

OBJECTIVES: Non-disclosure of positive HIV status in population-based surveys causes underestimation of national HIV diagnosis and biases inferences about engagement in the care continuum. This study investigated individual and household factors associated with HIV non-disclosure to survey interviewers in Nigeria. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of a cross sectional population-based household HIV survey. METHODS: We analyzed data from adults aged 15-64 years who tested positive for HIV and had antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) in their blood from a nationally representative HIV sero-survey conducted in Nigeria in 2018. We considered ARV use as a proxy for knowledge of HIV diagnosis; thus, respondents who self-reported to be unaware of their HIV status were classified as non-disclosers. We estimated the associations between non-disclosure and various sociodemographic, clinical, and household characteristics using weighted logistic regression. RESULTS: Among 1266 respondents living with HIV who were taking ARVs, 503 (40%) did not disclose their HIV status to interviewers. In multivariable statistical analyses, the adjusted odds of non-disclosure were highest among respondents aged 15-24 years, those with less than a primary school education, and those who were the only person living with HIV in their household. CONCLUSIONS: Non-disclosure of positive HIV status to survey personnel is common among adults who are receiving treatment in Nigeria. These findings highlight the importance of validating self-reported HIV status in surveys using biomarkers of ARV use. Meanwhile, it is crucial to improve disclosure by strengthening interview procedures and tailoring strategies towards groups that are disproportionately likely to underreport HIV diagnoses.

Low-level viraemia among people living with HIV in Nigeria: a retrospective longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: HIV transmission can occur with a viral load of at least 200 copies per mL of blood and low-level viraemia can lead to virological failure; the threshold level at which risk for virological failure is conferred is uncertain. To better understand low-level viraemia prevalence and outcomes, we analysed retrospective longitudinal data from a large cohort of people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Nigeria. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study using previously collected longitudinal patient data, we estimated rates of virological suppression (≤50 copies per mL), low-level viraemia (51-999 copies per mL), virological non-suppression (≥1000 copies per mL), and virological failure (≥2 consecutive virological non-suppression results) among people living with HIV aged 18 years and older who initiated and received at least 24 weeks of ART at 1005 facilities in 18 Nigerian states. We analysed risk for low-level viraemia, virological non-suppression, and virological failure using log-binomial regression and mixed-effects logistic regression. FINDINGS: At first viral load for 402 668 patients during 2016-21, low-level viraemia was present in 64 480 (16·0%) individuals and virological non-suppression occurred in 46 051 (11·4%) individuals. Patients with low-level viraemia had increased risk of virological failure (adjusted relative risk 2·20, 95% CI 1·98-2·43; p<0·0001). Compared with patients with virological suppression, patients with low-level viraemia, even at 51-199 copies per mL, had increased odds of low-level viraemia and virological non-suppression at next viral load; patients on optimised ART (ie, integrase strand transfer inhibitors) had lower odds than those on non-integrase strand transfer inhibitors for the same low-level viraemia range (eg, viral load ≥1000 copies per mL following viral load 400-999 copies per mL, integrase strand transfer inhibitor: odds ratio 1·96, 95% CI 1·79-2·13; p<0·0001; non-integrase strand transfer inhibitor: 3·21, 2·90-3·55; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Patients with low-level viraemia had increased risk of virological non-suppression and failure. Programmes should revise monitoring benchmarks and targets from less than 1000 copies per mL to less than 50 copies per mL to strengthen clinical outcomes and track progress to epidemic control. FUNDING: None.

Reaching transgender populations in Zambia for HIV prevention and linkage to treatment using community-based service delivery.

INTRODUCTION: Transgender and gender-diverse communities in Zambia are highly vulnerable and experience healthcare differently than cisgender persons. The University of Maryland, Baltimore (UMB) supports projects in Zambia to improve HIV case-finding, linkage and antiretroviral treatment (ART) for Zambia's transgender community. We describe programme strategies and outcomes for HIV prevention, testing and ART linkage among transgender communities. METHODS: UMB utilizes a differentiated service delivery model whereby community health workers (CHWs) recruited from key populations (KPs) reach community members through a peer-to-peer approach, with the support of local transgender civil society organizations (CSOs) and community gatekeepers. Peer CHWs are trained and certified as HIV testers and psychosocial counsellors to offer counselling with HIV testing and prevention services in identified safe spaces. HIV-negative people at risk of HIV infection are offered pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), while those who test positive for HIV are linked to ART services. CHWs collect data using the standardized facility and community tools and a dedicated DHIS2 database system. We conducted a descriptive analysis examining HIV testing and prevention outcomes using proportions and comparisons by time period and geographic strata. RESULTS: From October 2020 to June 2021, across Eastern, Lusaka, Western and Southern Provinces, 1860 transgender persons were reached with HIV prevention messages and services. Of these, 424 (23%) were tested for HIV and 78 (18%) tested positive. Of the 346 HIV-negative persons, 268 (78%) eligible transgender individuals were initiated on PrEP. ART linkage was 97%, with 76 out of the 78 transgender individuals living with HIV initiating treatment. Programme strategies that supported testing and linkage included peer CHWs, social network strategy testing, same-day ART initiation and local KP CSO support. Challenges included non-transgender-friendly environments, stigma and discrimination, the high transiency of the transgender community and the non-availability of transgender-specific health services, such as hormonal therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Peer KP CHWs were able to reach many members of the transgender community, providing safe HIV testing, PrEP services and linkage to care. Focusing on community gatekeepers and CSOs to disburse health messages and employ welcoming strategies supported high linkage to both PrEP and ART for transgender people in Zambia.

Key Population Size Estimation to Guide HIV Epidemic Responses in Nigeria: Bayesian Analysis of 3-Source Capture-Recapture Data.

BACKGROUND: Nigeria has the fourth largest burden of HIV globally. Key populations, including female sex workers, men who have sex with men, and people who inject drugs, are more vulnerable to HIV than the general population due to stigmatized and criminalized behaviors. Reliable key population size estimates are needed to guide HIV epidemic response efforts. OBJECTIVE: The objective of our study was to use empirical methods for sampling and analysis to improve the quality of population size estimates of female sex workers, men who have sex with men, and people who inject drugs in 7 states (Akwa Ibom, Benue, Cross River, Lagos, Nasarawa, Rivers, and the Federal Capital Territory) of Nigeria for program planning and to demonstrate improved statistical estimation methods. METHODS: From October to December 2018, we used 3-source capture-recapture to produce population size estimates in 7 states in Nigeria. Hotspots were mapped before 3-source capture-recapture started. We sampled female sex workers, men who have sex with men, and people who inject drugs during 3 independent captures about one week apart. During hotspot encounters, key population members were offered inexpensive, memorable objects unique to each capture round. In subsequent rounds, key population members were offered an object and asked to identify objects received during previous rounds (if any). Correct responses were tallied and recorded on tablets. Data were aggregated by key population and state for analysis. Median population size estimates were derived using Bayesian nonparametric latent-class models with 80% highest density intervals. RESULTS: Overall, we sampled approximately 310,000 persons at 9015 hotspots during 3 independent captures. Population size estimates for female sex workers ranged from 14,500 to 64,300; population size estimates for men who have sex with men ranged from 3200 to 41,400; and population size estimates for people who inject drugs ranged from 3400 to 30,400. CONCLUSIONS: This was the first implementation of these 3-source capture-recapture methods in Nigeria. Our population size estimates were larger than previously documented for each key population in all states. The Bayesian models account for factors, such as social visibility, that influence heterogeneous capture probabilities, resulting in more reliable population size estimates. The larger population size estimates suggest a need for programmatic scale-up to reach these populations, which are at highest risk for HIV.

Outcomes of HIV Positive Children and Adolescents Initiated on Antiretroviral Treatment in Nigeria (2007-2016).

Background: This manuscript aimed to examine treatment outcomes of HIV-positive children and adolescents. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data of a sample of patients aged 0-19 years who initiated ART (October 2007-September 2016) in participating sites in 30 states and the Federal Capital Territory in Nigeria. Results: Among 4006 patients alive at the end of the follow up period, 138 (3.4%) were LTFU. Adolescents had a significantly higher risk of being LTFU than children aged 3-5 years (HR 2.47 [95% CI 1.40-4.34]). Patients with advanced disease had a significantly higher risk of being LTFU (Stage IV HR, 3.66 [95% CI: 2.00-6.68]). On average, optimal ART refill adherence was met by 67.3% of patients. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that focusing on preventing and managing advanced disease and interventions supporting adolescents when transferring to adult care is warranted.

Treatment-Experienced Patients on Third-Line Therapy: A Retrospective Cohort of Treatment Outcomes at the HIV Advanced Treatment Centre, University Teaching Hospital, Zambia.

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) uptake continues to increase across sub-Saharan Africa and emergence of drug-resistant HIV mutations poses significant challenges to management of treatment-experienced patients with virologic failure. In Zambia, new third-line ART (TLART) guidelines including use of dolutegravir (DTG) were introduced in 2018. We assessed virologic suppression, immunologic response, and HIV drug-resistant mutations (DRMs) among patients on TLART at the University Teaching Hospital (UTH) in Lusaka, Zambia. We conducted a retrospective review of patients enrolled at UTH on TLART for >6 months between January 2010 and June 30, 2021. CD4 and HIV viral load (VL) at TLART initiation and post-initiation were assessed to determine virologic and immunologic outcomes. Regression analysis using bivariate and multivariate methods to describe baseline characteristics, virologic, and immunologic response to TLART was performed. A total of 345 patients met inclusion criteria; women comprised 57.6% (199/345) of the cohort. Median age at HIV diagnosis was 30 (interquartile range: 17.3-36.8). In 255 (73.8%) patients with at least two VLs, VL decreased from mean of 3.45 log10 copies/mL (standard deviation [SD]: 2.02) to 1.68 log10 copies/mL (SD: 1.79). Common ARVs prescribed included DTG (89.9%), tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (68.7%), and darunavir boosted with ritonavir (66.4%); 170 (49.3%) patients had genotypes; mutations consisted of 88.8% nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, 86.5% non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, and 55.9% protease inhibitor. VL suppression to <1,000 copies/mL was achieved in 225 (78.9%) patients. DRM frequency ranged from 56% to 89% depending on drug class. Treatment-experienced patients receiving TLART in Zambia achieved high rates of suppression despite high proportions of HIV mutations illustrating TLART effectiveness in the DTG era.

Confluence of crises: COVID-19, "gassings", blood draws and the continued importance of community engagement in Zambia.

Background: Nationally representative, household-based, health-related surveys are an invaluable source of health information, but face implementation challenges. In sub-Saharan Africa, these challenges are exacerbated when surveys include the collection of biological specimens. In this study, we describe the potential implementation challenges identified during field practice leading up to the 2020 Zambia Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (ZAMPHIA) survey, and explore the role of two crises on community mistrust of, and apprehension to, participate in the survey. Methods: Using focus group methodology to better understand the influence of crises on ZAMPHIA participation, we conducted 12 focus group discussions (FGDs) in five districts across two provinces. FGDs were conducted with three purposively sampled study groups: recognized household heads, community leaders, and young adults aged 18-24 years. We used reflexive thematic analysis to develop themes from across the FGDs. Results: We identified two key themes: the ever-present threat a stranger posed to the community is enhanced by crises, and endorsement of community awareness through sensitization can mitigate outsider challenges in medical research. Conclusion: We argue that these crises emphasized underlying mistrust that can only be addressed with substantial investment in community engagement efforts to build trust and partnership in medical research endeavors. Our findings underline the importance of prioritizing community engagement through substantial investment in varied and extensive approaches to sensitization to facilitate community engagement toward community acceptance of ZAMPHIA and similar studies.

Mapping HIV prevalence in Nigeria using small area estimates to develop a targeted HIV intervention strategy.

OBJECTIVE: Although geographically specific data can help target HIV prevention and treatment strategies, Nigeria relies on national- and state-level estimates for policymaking and intervention planning. We calculated sub-state estimates along the HIV continuum of care in Nigeria. DESIGN: Using data from the Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS) (July-December 2018), we conducted a geospatial analysis estimating three key programmatic indicators: prevalence of HIV infection among adults (aged 15-64 years); antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage among adults living with HIV; and viral load suppression (VLS) rate among adults living with HIV. METHODS: We used an ensemble modeling method called stacked generalization to analyze available covariates and a geostatistical model to incorporate the output from stacking as well as spatial autocorrelation in the modeled outcomes. Separate models were fitted for each indicator. Finally, we produced raster estimates of each indicator on an approximately 5×5-km grid and estimates at the sub-state/local government area (LGA) and state level. RESULTS: Estimates for all three indicators varied both within and between states. While state-level HIV prevalence ranged from 0.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.3%-0.5%]) to 4.3% (95% UI: 3.7%-4.9%), LGA prevalence ranged from 0.2% (95% UI: 0.1%-0.5%) to 8.5% (95% UI: 5.8%-12.2%). Although the range in ART coverage did not substantially differ at state level (25.6%-76.9%) and LGA level (21.9%-81.9%), the mean absolute difference in ART coverage between LGAs within states was 16.7 percentage points (range, 3.5-38.5 percentage points). States with large differences in ART coverage between LGAs also showed large differences in VLS-regardless of level of effective treatment coverage-indicating that state-level geographic targeting may be insufficient to address coverage gaps. CONCLUSION: Geospatial analysis across the HIV continuum of care can effectively highlight sub-state variation and identify areas that require further attention in order to achieve epidemic control. By generating local estimates, governments, donors, and other implementing partners will be better positioned to conduct targeted interventions and prioritize resource distribution.