Bayesian multistate models for measuring invasive carp movement and evaluating telemetry array performance.

Understanding the movement patterns of an invasive species can be a powerful tool in designing effective management and control strategies. Here, we used a Bayesian multistate model to investigate the movement of two invasive carp species, silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) and bighead carp (H. nobilis), using acoustic telemetry. The invaded portions of the Illinois and Des Plaines Rivers, USA, are a high priority management zone in the broader efforts to combat the spread of invasive carps from reaching the Laurentian Great Lakes. Our main objective was to characterize the rates of upstream and downstream movements by carps between river pools that are maintained by navigation lock and dam structures. However, we also aimed to evaluate the efficacy of the available telemetry infrastructure to monitor carp movements through this system. We found that, on a monthly basis, most individuals of both species remained within their current river pools: averaging 76.2% of silver carp and 75.5% of bighead carp. Conversely, a smaller proportion of silver carp, averaging 14.2%, and bighead carp, averaging 13.9%, moved to downstream river pools. Movements towards upstream pools were the least likely for both species, with silver carp at an average of 6.7% and bighead carp at 7.9%. The highest probabilities for upstream movements were for fish originating from the three most downstream river pools, where most of the population recruitment occurs. However, our evaluation of the telemetry array's effectiveness indicated low probability to detect fish in this portion of the river. We provide insights to enhance the placement and use of these monitoring tools, aiming to deepen our comprehension of these species' movement patterns in the system.

Decline of the North American avifauna.

Species extinctions have defined the global biodiversity crisis, but extinction begins with loss in abundance of individuals that can result in compositional and functional changes of ecosystems. Using multiple and independent monitoring networks, we report population losses across much of the North American avifauna over 48 years, including once-common species and from most biomes. Integration of range-wide population trajectories and size estimates indicates a net loss approaching 3 billion birds, or 29% of 1970 abundance. A continent-wide weather radar network also reveals a similarly steep decline in biomass passage of migrating birds over a recent 10-year period. This loss of bird abundance signals an urgent need to address threats to avert future avifaunal collapse and associated loss of ecosystem integrity, function, and services.

Implications of Fine-Grained Habitat Fragmentation and Road Mortality for Jaguar Conservation in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil.

Jaguar (Panthera onca) populations in the Upper Paraná River, in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest region, live in a landscape that includes highly fragmented areas as well as relatively intact ones. We developed a model of jaguar habitat suitability in this region, and based on this habitat model, we developed a spatially structured metapopulation model of the jaguar populations in this area to analyze their viability, the potential impact of road mortality on the populations' persistence, and the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation. In more highly fragmented populations, density of jaguars per unit area is lower and density of roads per jaguar is higher. The populations with the most fragmented habitat were predicted to have much lower persistence in the next 100 years when the model included no dispersal, indicating that the persistence of these populations are dependent to a large extent on dispersal from other populations. This, in turn, indicates that the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation may lead to source-sink dynamics, whereby populations with highly fragmented habitat are maintained only by dispersal from populations with less fragmented habitat. This study demonstrates the utility of linking habitat and demographic models in assessing impacts on species living in fragmented landscapes.

Warning times for species extinctions due to climate change.

Climate change is likely to become an increasingly major obstacle to slowing the rate of species extinctions. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for identifying climate-vulnerable species, based on the assumption that established systems such as the IUCN Red List need revising or replacing because they were not developed to explicitly consider climate change. However, no assessment approach has been tested to determine its ability to provide advanced warning time for conservation action for species that might go extinct due to climate change. To test the performance of the Red List system in this capacity, we used linked niche-demographic models with habitat dynamics driven by a 'business-as-usual' climate change scenario. We generated replicate 100-year trajectories for range-restricted reptiles and amphibians endemic to the United States. For each replicate, we categorized the simulated species according to IUCN Red List criteria at annual, 5-year, and 10-year intervals (the latter representing current practice). For replicates that went extinct, we calculated warning time as the number of years the simulated species was continuously listed in a threatened category prior to extinction. To simulate data limitations, we repeated the analysis using a single criterion at a time (disregarding other listing criteria). Results show that when all criteria can be used, the Red List system would provide several decades of warning time (median = 62 years; >20 years for 99% of replicates), but suggest that conservation actions should begin as soon as a species is listed as Vulnerable, because 50% of replicates went extinct within 20 years of becoming uplisted to Critically Endangered. When only one criterion was used, warning times were substantially shorter, but more frequent assessments increased the warning time by about a decade. Overall, we found that the Red List criteria reliably provide a sensitive and precautionary way to assess extinction risk under climate change.