When tomorrow comes: A prospective risk assessment of a future artificial general intelligence-based uncrewed combat aerial vehicle system.

There are concerns that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could pose an existential threat to humanity; however, as AGI does not yet exist it is difficult to prospectively identify risks and develop requisite controls. We applied the Work Domain Analysis Broken Nodes (WDA-BN) and Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork-Broken Links (EAST-BL) methods to identify potential risks in a future 'envisioned world' AGI-based uncrewed combat aerial vehicle system. The findings suggest five main categories of risk in this context: sub-optimal performance risks, goal alignment risks, super-intelligence risks, over-control risks, and enfeeblement risks. Two of these categories, goal alignment risks and super-intelligence risks, have not previously been encountered or dealt with in conventional safety management systems. Whereas most of the identified sub-optimal performance risks can be managed through existing defence design lifecycle processes, we propose that work is required to develop controls to manage the other risks identified. These include controls on AGI developers, controls within the AGI itself, and broader sociotechnical system controls.

Testing the reliability of accident analysis methods: a comparison of AcciMap, STAMP-CAST and AcciNet.

Accident analysis methods are used to model the multifactorial cause of adverse incidents. Methods such as AcciMap, STAMP-CAST and recently AcciNet, are systemic approaches that support the identification of safety interventions across sociotechnical system levels. Despite their growing popularity, little is known about how reliable systems-based methods are when used to describe, model and classify contributory factors and relationships. Here, we conducted an intra-rater and inter-rater reliability assessment of AcciMap, STAMP-CAST and AcciNet using the Signal Detection Theory (SDT) paradigm. A total of 180 hours' worth of analyses across 360 comparisons were performed by 30 expert analysts. Findings revealed that all three methods produced a weak to moderate positive correlation coefficient, however the inter-rater reliability of STAMP-CAST was significantly higher compared to AcciMap and AcciNet. No statistically significant or practically meaningful differences were found between methods in the overall intra-rater reliability analyses. Implications and future research directions are discussed.

Practitioners who undertake accident analysis within their organisations should consider the use of STAMP-CAST due to the significantly higher inter-rater reliability findings obtained in this study compared to AcciMap and AcciNet, particularly if they tend to work alone and/or part of relatively small teams.

Exploring improvisations in road safety in a low-income setting.

Road collision types repeat themselves, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where countermeasures are often improvised and implemented with little planning. At the Shahbag intersection in Dhaka, Bangladesh, speed bumps were quickly constructed at the exit of the intersection as an improvised road safety measure following the occurrence of a fatal collision, which eventually contributed to another collision between a truck and a car. The events influencing the improvisation decision, and that action's consequences, have been analysed using the Impromap methodology, a variation of the Accimap approach that focusses specifically on improvisation. The applicability of the Impromap as a systems-based approach to the road safety domain is assessed using the predictions described in Rasmussen's risk management framework, and corresponding countermeasures are proposed. The analysis shows that improvisation in the road safety domain is undesirable irrespective of the economic setting as it is likely to eventually contribute to secondary collisions.Practitioner summary: In this paper, the events influencing the improvisation decision following a road crash, and that action's consequences, have been analysed using the Impromap methodology. The applicability of Impromap as a systems-based approach in road safety domain is assessed using the Rasmussen's risk management framework-based predictions, and corresponding countermeasures are proposed.

To automate or not to automate: advocating the 'cliff-edge' principle.

We reflect briefly on the last forty years or so of ergonomics and human factors research in automation, observing that many of the issues being discussed today are the same as all those decades ago. In this paper, we explicate one of the key arguments regarding the application of automation in complex safety-critical domains, which proposes restraining the capabilities of automation technology until it is able to fully and completely take over the task at hand. We call this the 'cliff-edge' principle of automation design. Instead, we espouse a use for the technology in a more problem-driven, human-centred way. These are not entirely new ideas and such a philosophy is already gaining traction in ergonomics and human factors. The point is that in a given system, tasks should be controlled either by human or by automation; anything in between only causes problems for system performance.

Human factors problems with automation have been with us for over forty years, and have changed little in that time. This brief review shows a groundswell of opinion that points to what we call the cliff-edge automation principle ­ restraining the full capabilities of technology until it is ready to fully and completely take over the task. This approach improves human performance in the system by keeping the person in the loop and in control. Researchers and practitioners in ergonomics and human factors should continue to push this message to the designers and manufacturers of automated systems.

A new approach for Training Needs Analysis: A case study using an Automated Vehicle.

Considerable resources are invested each year into training to ensure trainees have the required competencies to safely and effectively perform their tasks/jobs. As such, it is important to develop effective training programmes which target those required competencies. One method that can be used at the start of the training lifecycle to establish the tasks and competencies that are required for a task/job and is considered an important activity to perform when developing a training programme is a Training Needs Analysis (TNA). This article presents a new TNA approach and uses an Automated Vehicle (AV) case study to demonstrate this new approach for a specific AV scenario within the current UK road system. A Hierarchical Task Analysis (HTA) was performed in order to identify the overall goal and tasks that drivers need to perform to operate the AV system safely on the road. This HTA identified 7 main tasks which were decomposed into 26 sub-tasks and 2428 operations. Then, six AV driver training themes from the literature were combined with the Knowledge, Skills and Attitudes (KSA) taxonomy to identify the KSAs that drivers need to perform the tasks, sub-tasks and operations that were identified in the HTA (training needs). This resulted in the identification of over 100 different training needs. This new approach helped to identify more tasks, operations and training needs than previous TNAs which applied the KSA taxonomy alone. As such, a more comprehensive TNA for drivers of the AV system was produced. This can be more easily translated into the development and evaluation of future training programmes for drivers of AV systems.

Towards a unified model of accident causation: refining and validating the systems thinking safety tenets.

The systems thinking tenets were developed based on a synthesis of contemporary accident causation theory, models and approaches and encapsulate 15 features of complex systems that interact to create both safety and adverse events. Whilst initial testing provided supportive evidence, the tenets have not yet been subject to formal validation. This article presents the findings from a three-round Delphi study undertaken to refine and validate the tenets and assess their suitability for inclusion in a unified model of accident causation. Participants with expertise in accident causation and systems thinking provided feedback on the tenets and associated definitions until an acceptable level of consensus was achieved. The results reduced the original 15 tenets to 14 and 10 were identified as important to include in unified model of accident causation. The refined systems thinking tenets are presented along with future research directions designed to facilitate their use in safety practice.Practitioner summary: This article presents a refined and validated set of systems thinking tenets which describe features of complex systems that interact to create adverse events. The tenets can be used by practitioners to proactively identify safety leading indicators and contributory factors during adverse event analysis.

Resilience engineering on the road: Using operator event sequence diagrams and system failure analysis to enhance cyclist and vehicle interactions.

Future visions of transport systems include both a drive towards automated vehicles and the need for sustainable, active, modes of travel. The combination of these requirements needs careful consideration to ensure the integration of automated vehicles does not compromise vulnerable road users. Transport networks need to be resilient to automation integration, which requires foresight of possible challenges in their interaction with other road users. Focusing on a cyclist overtake scenario, the application of operator event sequence diagrams and a predictive systems failure method provide a novel way to analyse resilience. The approach offers the opportunity to review how automation can be positively integrated into road transportation to overcome the shortfalls of the current system by targeting organisational, procedural, equipment and training measures.

Predicting and mitigating failures on the flight deck: an aircraft engine bird strike scenario.

Engine damage as a consequence of foreign object debris (FOD) during flight is frequently caused by birds. One approach to minimising disruption caused by this damage is to provide flight crew with accurate information relating to the continuing operational status of the aircraft's engines. Before designing such avionic systems however, understanding of current procedures is needed. Hierarchical Task Analysis (HTA) and Systematic Human Error Reduction and Prediction Approach (SHERPA) were used to identify potential failures that flight crew may make when managing an engine bird strike. Workshops with commercial pilots generated insights into current practice and a commercial pilot SME reviewed outputs for accuracy. Over 200 potential failures were identified, most commonly related to communication. Remedial measures, considering future avionic systems, are proposed to mitigate identified failures. This analysis provides a starting point for future design concepts for assisting flight crew in dealing with engine malfunction due to FOD strikes. Practitioner summary: Hierarchical Task Analysis was conducted to show all tasks involved in dealing with an in-flight aircraft engine bird strike. Systematic Human Error Reduction and Prediction Approach analysis was performed and over 200 possible failures were identified when managing this event. Remedial measures are proposed to help mitigate possible failures.

How does eco-driving make us feel? Considering the psychological effects of eco-driving.

Despite both the environmental and financial benefits of eco-driving being well known, the psychological impact of engaging in eco-driving behaviours has received less attention within the literature. It was anticipated that being asked to engage in eco-driving behaviours not only has an impact on vehicle fuel usage, but also on the driver, both in terms of their overall mood and willingness to re-engage with the task at a later time. Results from a simulated driving study suggest that although eco-driving was beneficial in reducing fuel consumption, being asked to eco-drive had a negative effect on overall journey time and mood. Engaging in eco-driving did however have a positive effect on self-esteem, suggesting potential longer term psychological benefits of adopting this behaviour.

State of science: models and methods for understanding and enhancing teams and teamwork in complex sociotechnical systems.

This state of the science review brings together the disparate literature of effective strategies for enhancing and accelerating team performance. The review evaluates and synthesises models and proposes recommended avenues for future research. The two major models of the Input-Mediator-Output-Input (IMOI) framework and the Big Five dimensions of teamwork were reviewed and both will need significant development for application to future teams comprising non-human agents. Research suggests that a multi-method approach is appropriate for team measurements, such as the integration of methods from self-report, observer ratings, event-based measurement and automated recordings. Simulations are recommended as the most effective team-based training interventions. The impact of new technology and autonomous agents is discussed with respect to the changing nature of teamwork. In particular, whether existing teamwork models and measures are suitable to support the design, operation and evaluation of human-nonhuman teams of the future. Practitioner summary: This review recommends a multi-method approach to the measurement and evaluation of teamwork. Team models will need to be adapted to describe interaction with non-human agents, which is what the future is most likely to hold. The most effective team training interventions use simulation-based approaches.

The quest for the ring: a case study of a new submarine control room configuration.

Submarine control room layouts have remained similar across decades of operation, despite the introduction of new technologies that allow for the co-location of the sound and control room. Operation of an inwards, rather than outwards, facing ring control room configuration was examined in three scenarios: Return to Periscope Depth, Inshore Operations, and Dived Tracking. A case study design employed a serving team of qualified submariners participated in all three scenarios with high and low demand. Communications and activities in the control room were recorded and analysed using the Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork (EAST) method. EAST models collaborative teamwork through social, information, and task networks. The results from the ring configuration were compared to an outward facing baseline of the contemporary control room layout with a separate sound and control room. The ring control room configuration increased communications between operators, leading to a more information exchanged, and more tasks completed. Practitioner summary: Control room design on submarines, and other domains, has traditionally been outward facing with supervisory staff looking over the shoulders of their subordinates. In this paper, and inward looking control room design was explored, with subordinate staff facing their supervisors. This design resulted in more information exchange and productive work.

Testing the reliability and validity of risk assessment methods in Human Factors and Ergonomics.

There is growing interest in the use of systems-based risk assessment methods in Human Factors and Ergonomics (HFE). The purpose of this study was to test the intra-rater reliability and criterion-referenced concurrent validity of three systems-based risk assessment approaches: (i) the Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) method; (ii) the Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork Broken Links (EAST-BL) method; and, (iii) the Network Hazard Analysis and Risk Management System (Net-HARMS) method. Reliability and validity measures were obtained using the Signal Detection Theory (SDT) paradigm. Whilst STPA identified the highest number of risks, the findings indicate a weak to moderate level of reliability and validity for STPA, EAST-BL and Net-HARMS. There were no statistically significant differences between the methods across analyses. The results suggest that there is merit to the continued use of systems-based risk assessment methods following a series of methodological extensions that aim to enhance the reliability and validity of future applications. Practitioner summary The three risk assessment methods produced weak to moderate levels of stability and accuracy regarding their capability to predict risks. There is a pressing need to further test the reliability and validity of safety methods in Human Factors and Ergonomics.

Taking a mixed-methods approach to collision investigation: AcciMap, STAMP-CAST and PCM.

Recently, ergonomics and safety researchers have turned their attention towards applying combinations of sociotechnical methods rather than using single methods in isolation. In the current research, a mixed-method approach combining two systems-based methods, Accimaps and the Systems Theoretic Accident Model and Process - Causal Analysis using Systems Theory (STAMP-CAST), and one cognitive approach, the Perceptual Cycle Model (PCM), were employed in analysing a rail-level crossing incident in Bangladesh. Each method was applied individually to investigate the collision, and interventions were proposed corresponding to incident events at different risk management framework levels. The three methods provided different perspectives of the whole picture, together identifying an array of contributory factors. The complementary nature of these methods aided in proposing a comprehensive set of safety recommendations, thereby demonstrating the benefit of a mixed-method approach for collision investigation in low-income settings.

Thinking aloud on the road: Thematic differences in the experiences of drivers, cyclists, and motorcyclists.

This study takes a qualitative approach to exploring the experiences (and differences therein) of individuals using either their car, bicycle, or motorcycle to navigate a ∼10.5 km urban route in a provincial UK city, with the aim of contributing to our understanding of the needs and requirements of different road users. Forty-six individuals provided concurrent verbal reports, using the 'think aloud' method, whilst using their vehicle to navigate the test route, the transcripts of which were subjected to a theory-agnostic, inductive, thematic analysis. A number of group differences were observed, revealing (among other factors) the importance of road surface quality to cyclists, the focus on vigilant observation in motorcyclists, and the heightened emotionality experienced by both two-wheeled groups, particularly those on bicycles. This affective component has, as yet, been under-explored in the academic domain and under-utilised in road transport policy and strategy; this is discussed, with attention drawn to the cyclists' greater tendency to make negatively valenced value judgements. Results are also discussed in terms of the potential to improve road users' experiences, foster inter-group empathy and understanding, and encourage a shift in mobility towards more sustainable modes.

To utilize automation or not to utilize automation, that is the question: An evaluation of how drills and procedures impact optronics mast usage from a sociotechnical systems perspective.

The delegation of tasks to a non-human agent in a sociotechnical system can extend human capabilities and performance. Effective performance is, however, reliant on a successful relationship between human operators and automation. Optronics is a partially automated system which has replaced periscope on board some modern submarine platforms, operating modes permit the completion of tasks either manually or utilizing automation. A reluctance to utilize automated functionality within the optronics system has been due to operator familiarity with legacy manual procedures based upon the use of a physical periscope. This highlights the gap that is prevalent between innovation, design, training and governance of automation utilization. The current work examined current (Control group) utilization of optronics technology using an expert population in a high fidelity simulator. Findings were utilized to guide the development of novel optronics specific standard operating procedures (Intervention group). Results indicate that automaton disuse was greatly reduced, which had had a positive overall impact on overall system performance with regard to productivity and accuracy. The current work highlights the importance of incorporating governance of use and training as part of an automation design and implementation program is critical to help 'maximize what you have'.

It's a circular argument: Examining how a novel configuration impacts information flow in submarine control rooms.

The continuing advancement of technology means that sociotechnical systems are primed for revolutionary changes to ways of working that can increase capability. It is critical to consider the unintended impact technology can have on human operators particularly regarding information flow and interactions within teams. Previous research revealed that the co-location of operator's dependent on each other for task relevant information can optimise information flow previously constrained by engineering considerations. The current work compared a novel circular configuration to that of a contemporary submarine control room. In the circular configuration, consoles faced inwards, permitting eye contact between operators, and three large screen displays were introduced to provide all operators with the same information. Ten teams participated in low and high demand dived tracking scenarios in a simulated submarine control room. All communications between operators were recorded in order to generate social, information, and task networks. These were statistically compared to networks generated from a baseline study of contemporary operation. Overall, the volume of verbal communications significantly reduced, information exchange was more structured, and the volume of tasks completed by operators significantly increased when operating in an inward facing circle configuration. The current work provides support for a data driven evidence-based approach to design that is information centric but endorsed by the end user to optimise performance and increase productivity. Implications of the work and future research ideas are discussed.

An investigation of urban pedestrian behaviour in Bangladesh using the Perceptual Cycle Model.

In Bangladesh, pedestrians remain the most neglected road user group in terms of research and safety measures, even though they are involved in nearly 50% of all fatal collisions. In the Dhaka metropolitan area, this statistic rises to around 65%. To reduce the recurrence of such collisions, it is necessary to understand the underlying thought processes of pedestrians, and how pedestrians interact with different road users, particularly when crossing the road. This study contributes to knowledge through the analysis of verbal data from 46 pedestrians, framed in terms of the Perceptual Cycle Model, where cognitive processes are described in terms of three categories: schema (mental templates), action (doing things), and world (environmental information). Concurrent verbal reports were provided by participants while they negotiated a busy area of mixed traffic in the centre of Dhaka city. The analysis revealed some of the factors that affected decision-making (for road crossing behaviour) at the different road sections. Many external factors (e.g., street sellers, rubbish blocking the path, lack of shade and poor pavement condition) prevented the pavement from being used and contributed to riskier road crossing behaviour. Some safety implications and related recommendations are presented.

Exploring the Relationship between Attitudes, Risk Perceptions, Fatalistic Beliefs, and Pedestrian Behaviors in China.

Road safety has become a worldwide public health concern. Although many factors contribute to collisions, pedestrian behaviors can strongly influence road safety outcomes. This paper presents results of a survey investigating the effects of age, gender, attitudes towards road safety, fatalistic beliefs and risk perceptions on self-reported pedestrian behaviors in a Chinese example. The study was carried out on 543 participants (229 men and 314 women) from 20 provinces across China. Pedestrian behaviors were assessed by four factors: errors, violations, aggressions, and lapses. Younger people reported performing riskier pedestrian behaviors compared to older people. Gender was not an influential factor. Of the factors explored, attitudes towards road safety explained the most amount of variance in self-reported behaviors. Significant additional variance in risky pedestrian behaviors was explained by the addition of fatalistic beliefs. The differences among the effects, and the implications for road safety intervention design, are discussed. In particular, traffic managers can provide road safety education and related training activities to influence pedestrian behaviors positively.

Resolving the differences between system development and system operation using STAMP: a road safety case study in a low-income setting.

Road safety strategies adopted worldwide have made significant progress in reducing road trauma, but have stagnated more recently. The situation in low- and middle-income countries is even worse with no significant decrease in fatality rates. Safety researchers have argued that adopting sociotechnical systems approach is necessary to make significant advancements and improvements. The aim of this study was to develop a control structure model of the Bangladesh road safety system by identifying the actors and organisations involved across the system. Expert stakeholders were identified and interviewed, and relevant information was gathered in order to generate the Systems Theoretic Accident Model and Process control structure model. Throughout the analysis of this model, differences in the control and feedback mechanisms of the system were identified, and road safety intervention recommendations were made. Future research should also predict potential risks within the system and propose proactive and preventative countermeasures. Practitioner summary: In this article, a Systems Theoretic Accident Model and Process control structure model of the Bangladesh road safety system is developed, and the involved actors are identified. Based on interviews and workshops with expert stakeholders, differences in the controls and feedback mechanisms in the system were identified, and road safety intervention recommendations were made. Abbreviations: BUET: Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology.