Donor Age, Sex, and Cause of Death and Their Relationship to Heart Transplant Recipient Cardiac Death.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies indicate that donor innate immune responses participate in initiating and accelerating innate responses and allorecognition in the recipient. These immune responses negatively affect recipient outcomes and predispose recipients to cardiovascular death (CV death). We hypothesized that a donor cause of death (COD) associated with higher levels of innate immune response would predispose recipients to more adverse outcomes post-transplant, including CV death. METHODS: We performed a single-institution retrospective analysis comparing donor characteristics and COD to recipient adverse cardiovascular outcomes. We analyzed the medical records of local adult donors (age 18-64) in a database of donors where adequate data was available. Donor age was available on 706 donors; donor sex was available on 730 donors. We linked donor characteristics (age and sex) and COD to recipient CV death. The data were analyzed using logistic regression, the log-rank test of differences, and Tukey contrast. RESULTS: Donor age, female sex, and COD of intracranial hemorrhage were significantly associated with a higher incidence of recipient CV death. CONCLUSIONS: In this single institution study, we found that recipients with hearts from donors over 40 years, donors who were female, or donors who died with a COD of intracranial hemorrhage had a higher frequency of CV death. Donor monitoring and potential treatment of innate immune activation may decrease subsequent recipient innate responses and allorecognition stimulated by donor-derived inflammatory signaling, which leads to adverse outcomes.

A machine learning model for prediction of 30-day primary graft failure after heart transplantation.

Background: Primary graft failure (PGF) remains the most common cause of short-term mortality after heart transplantation. The main objective was to develop and validate a risk model for prediction of short-term mortality due to PGF after heart transplantation using the ISHLT Heart Transplant Registry. Methods: We developed a non-linear artificial neural networks (ANN) model to evaluate the association between recipient-donor variables and post-transplant PGF. Patients in the ISHLT registry were randomly divided into derivation and an independent internal validation cohort. The primary endpoint was PGF defined as death within 30 days due to Graft failure or Cardiovascular causes or retransplant within 30 days for causes other than rejection. Results: Among 64,964 adult recipients transplanted between 1994 and 2013, mean age was 51 years and 22% were female. The incidence of PGF up to 30 days was 3.7%. The ANN model selected 33 of 77 risk variables as relevant for PGF prediction. The C-index in the test cohort was 0.70 (95% CI: 0.68-0.71). The risk variables which most influenced the PGF were underlying HF diagnosis, ischemia time and sex, while renal function had a lower influence. Conclusion: An ANN model to predict primary graft dysfunction was derived and independently validated. The good discrimination of the ANN model likely results from its flexibility to model potentially non-linear relationships and interactions. Whether this model with improved discrimination can assist in clinical decisions at the time of transplant should be tested.

Survival Outcomes After Heart Transplantation: Does Recipient Sex Matter?

BACKGROUND: Currently, women represent <25% of heart transplant recipients. Reasons for this female underrepresentation have been attributed to selection and referral bias and potentially poorer outcomes in female recipients. The aim of this study was to compare long-term posttransplant survival between men and women, when matched for recipient and donor characteristics. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using the International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation Registry, we performed descriptive analyses and estimated overall freedom from posttransplant death stratified by sex using Kaplan-Meier survival methods. Male and female recipients were matched according to the Index for Mortality Prediction After Cardiac Transplantation and Donor Risk Index score using 1:1 propensity score matching. The study cohort comprised 34 198 heart transplant recipients (76.3% men, 23.7% women) between 2004 and 2014. Compared with men, women were more likely younger (51 [39-59] versus 55 [46-61] years; P<0.001) and had a different distribution of heart failure etiology (P<0.001). In general, the prevalence of comorbidities was lower in women than in men. Women were less likely to have diabetes mellitus (19.1% versus 26.2%; P<0.001), hypertension (40.7% versus 47.9%; P<0.001), peripheral vascular disease (2.4% versus 3.3%; P=0.002), tobacco use (36.5% versus 52.3%; P<0.001), and prior cardiovascular surgery (38.6% versus 50.7%; P<0.001). Women were more likely to have a history of malignancy (10.5% versus 5.3%; P<0.001), require intravenous inotropes (41.4% versus 37.2%; P<0.001), and were less likely supported by an intra-aortic balloon pump (3.3% versus 3.8%; P=0.03) or durable ventricular assist device (22% versus 31.5%; P<0.001). Transplanted male recipients had a higher Index for Mortality Prediction After Cardiac Transplantation score (5 [2-7] versus 4 [1-6]; P<0.001). When male and female heart transplant recipients were matched for recipient and donor characteristics, there was no significant survival difference (P=0.57). CONCLUSIONS: Overall survival does not differ between men and women after cardiac transplantation. Women who survive to heart transplantation appear to have lower risk features than male recipients but receive hearts from higher risk donors.

Impact of adult congenital heart disease on survival and mortality after heart transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Reduced early survival has been reported in adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) heart transplant (HTx) recipients, but little is known about late outcomes after HTx. The aim of this study was to examine survival; causes of death; and predictors of early (<1 year), mid-term (1 to 5 years) and late (>5 years) mortality in ACHD HTx recipients. METHODS: ACHD patients undergoing HTx between 1985 and 2010 were identified in the transplant registry of the International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation (ISHLT). Survival was compared between ACHD and other adult HTx recipients ("controls") using the Kaplan-Meier method. Factors associated with survival beyond 1 year were assessed using multivariable proportional hazards regression analysis. RESULTS: Of 85,647 adults who underwent HTx, 1,851 (2.2%) were transplanted for ACHD. Early death secondary due to technical reasons was high among ACHD HTx recipients: 10% vs. 4% in controls (p < 0.0001). However, long-term survival of ACHD recipients who survived the early hazard phase was superior compared with controls (p < 0.0001). This was in part due to a lower infection (p < 0.0001) and malignancy-related (p < 0.01) mortality. Cardiac re-transplantation in ACHD HTx recipients was associated with a 2.75-fold increase in mortality. CONCLUSION: A "survival paradox" exists among ACHD recipients, whose high early mortality is balanced by better long-term survival in those who survive the early hazard phase after HTx. A high mortality risk after cardiac re-transplantation in this group of patients suggests that this treatment option should only be considered in carefully selected ACHD HTx recipients.