Deglaciation of northwestern Greenland during Marine Isotope Stage 11.

Past interglacial climates with smaller ice sheets offer analogs for ice sheet response to future warming and contributions to sea level rise; however, well-dated geologic records from formerly ice-free areas are rare. Here we report that subglacial sediment from the Camp Century ice core preserves direct evidence that northwestern Greenland was ice free during the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 interglacial. Luminescence dating shows that sediment just beneath the ice sheet was deposited by flowing water in an ice-free environment 416 ± 38 thousand years ago. Provenance analyses and cosmogenic nuclide data and calculations suggest the sediment was reworked from local materials and exposed at the surface <16 thousand years before deposition. Ice sheet modeling indicates that ice-free conditions at Camp Century require at least 1.4 meters of sea level equivalent contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Seasonal temperatures in West Antarctica during the Holocene.

The recovery of long-term climate proxy records with seasonal resolution is rare because of natural smoothing processes, discontinuities and limitations in measurement resolution. Yet insolation forcing, a primary driver of multimillennial-scale climate change, acts through seasonal variations with direct impacts on seasonal climate1. Whether the sensitivity of seasonal climate to insolation matches theoretical predictions has not been assessed over long timescales. Here, we analyse a continuous record of water-isotope ratios from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core to reveal summer and winter temperature changes through the last 11,000 years. Summer temperatures in West Antarctica increased through the early-to-mid-Holocene, reached a peak 4,100 years ago and then decreased to the present. Climate model simulations show that these variations primarily reflect changes in maximum summer insolation, confirming the general connection between seasonal insolation and warming and demonstrating the importance of insolation intensity rather than seasonally integrated insolation or season duration2,3. Winter temperatures varied less overall, consistent with predictions from insolation forcing, but also fluctuated in the early Holocene, probably owing to changes in meridional heat transport. The magnitudes of summer and winter temperature changes constrain the lowering of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet surface since the early Holocene to less than 162 m and probably less than 58 m, consistent with geological constraints elsewhere in West Antarctica4-7.

Inter-decadal climate variability induces differential ice response along Pacific-facing West Antarctica.

West Antarctica has experienced dramatic ice losses contributing to global sea-level rise in recent decades, particularly from Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers. Although these ice losses manifest an ongoing Marine Ice Sheet Instability, projections of their future rate are confounded by limited observations along West Antarctica's coastal perimeter with respect to how the pace of retreat can be modulated by variations in climate forcing. Here, we derive a comprehensive, 12-year record of glacier retreat around West Antarctica's Pacific-facing margin and compare this dataset to contemporaneous estimates of ice flow, mass loss, the state of the Southern Ocean and the atmosphere. Between 2003 and 2015, rates of glacier retreat and acceleration were extensive along the Bellingshausen Sea coastline, but slowed along the Amundsen Sea. We attribute this to an interdecadal suppression of westerly winds in the Amundsen Sea, which reduced warm water inflow to the Amundsen Sea Embayment. Our results provide direct observations that the pace, magnitude and extent of ice destabilization around West Antarctica vary by location, with the Amundsen Sea response most sensitive to interdecadal atmosphere-ocean variability. Thus, model projections accounting for regionally resolved ice-ocean-atmosphere interactions will be important for predicting accurately the short-term evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Antarctic surface temperature and elevation during the Last Glacial Maximum.

Water-stable isotopes in polar ice cores are a widely used temperature proxy in paleoclimate reconstruction, yet calibration remains challenging in East Antarctica. Here, we reconstruct the magnitude and spatial pattern of Last Glacial Maximum surface cooling in Antarctica using borehole thermometry and firn properties in seven ice cores. West Antarctic sites cooled ~10°C relative to the preindustrial period. East Antarctic sites show a range from ~4° to ~7°C cooling, which is consistent with the results of global climate models when the effects of topographic changes indicated with ice core air-content data are included, but less than those indicated with the use of water-stable isotopes calibrated against modern spatial gradients. An altered Antarctic temperature inversion during the glacial reconciles our estimates with water-isotope observations.

A multimillion-year-old record of Greenland vegetation and glacial history preserved in sediment beneath 1.4 km of ice at Camp Century.

Understanding the history of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is critical for determining its sensitivity to warming and contribution to sea level; however, that history is poorly known before the last interglacial. Most knowledge comes from interpretation of marine sediment, an indirect record of past ice-sheet extent and behavior. Subglacial sediment and rock, retrieved at the base of ice cores, provide terrestrial evidence for GrIS behavior during the Pleistocene. Here, we use multiple methods to determine GrIS history from subglacial sediment at the base of the Camp Century ice core collected in 1966. This material contains a stratigraphic record of glaciation and vegetation in northwestern Greenland spanning the Pleistocene. Enriched stable isotopes of pore-ice suggest precipitation at lower elevations implying ice-sheet absence. Plant macrofossils and biomarkers in the sediment indicate that paleo-ecosystems from previous interglacial periods are preserved beneath the GrIS. Cosmogenic 26Al/10Be and luminescence data bracket the burial of the lower-most sediment between <3.2 ± 0.4 Ma and >0.7 to 1.4 Ma. In the upper-most sediment, cosmogenic 26Al/10Be data require exposure within the last 1.0 ± 0.1 My. The unique subglacial sedimentary record from Camp Century documents at least two episodes of ice-free, vegetated conditions, each followed by glaciation. The lower sediment derives from an Early Pleistocene GrIS advance. 26Al/10Be ratios in the upper-most sediment match those in subglacial bedrock from central Greenland, suggesting similar ice-cover histories across the GrIS. We conclude that the GrIS persisted through much of the Pleistocene but melted and reformed at least once since 1.1 Ma.

Rate of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet will exceed Holocene values this century.

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) is losing mass at a high rate1. Given the short-term nature of the observational record, it is difficult to assess the historical importance of this mass-loss trend. Unlike records of greenhouse gas concentrations and global temperature, in which observations have been merged with palaeoclimate datasets, there are no comparably long records for rates of GIS mass change. Here we reveal unprecedented mass loss from the GIS this century, by placing contemporary and future rates of GIS mass loss within the context of the natural variability over the past 12,000 years. We force a high-resolution ice-sheet model with an ensemble of climate histories constrained by ice-core data2. Our simulation domain covers southwestern Greenland, the mass change of which is dominated by surface mass balance. The results agree favourably with an independent chronology of the history of the GIS margin3,4. The largest pre-industrial rates of mass loss (up to 6,000 billion tonnes per century) occurred in the early Holocene, and were similar to the contemporary (AD 2000-2018) rate of around 6,100 billion tonnes per century5. Simulations of future mass loss from southwestern GIS, based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios corresponding to low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration trajectories6, predict mass loss of between 8,800 and 35,900 billion tonnes over the twenty-first century. These rates of GIS mass loss exceed the maximum rates over the past 12,000 years. Because rates of mass loss from the southwestern GIS scale linearly5 with the GIS as a whole, our results indicate, with high confidence, that the rate of mass loss from the GIS will exceed Holocene rates this century.

Climate models can correctly simulate the continuum of global-average temperature variability.

Climate records exhibit scaling behavior with large exponents, resulting in larger fluctuations at longer timescales. It is unclear whether climate models are capable of simulating these fluctuations, which draws into question their ability to simulate such variability in the coming decades and centuries. Using the latest simulations and data syntheses, we find agreement for spectra derived from observations and models on timescales ranging from interannual to multimillennial. Our results confirm the existence of a scaling break between orbital and annual peaks, occurring around millennial periodicities. That both simple and comprehensive ocean-atmosphere models can reproduce these features suggests that long-range persistence is a consequence of the oceanic integration of both gradual and abrupt climate forcings. This result implies that Holocene low-frequency variability is partly a consequence of the climate system's integrated memory of orbital forcing. We conclude that climate models appear to contain the essential physics to correctly simulate the spectral continuum of global-mean temperature; however, regional discrepancies remain unresolved. A critical element of successfully simulating suborbital climate variability involves, we hypothesize, initial conditions of the deep ocean state that are consistent with observations of the recent past.

Recent summer warming in northwestern Canada exceeds the Holocene thermal maximum.

Eastern Beringia is one of the few Western Arctic regions where full Holocene climate reconstructions are possible. However, most full Holocene reconstructions in Eastern Beringia are based either on pollen or midges, which show conflicting early Holocene summer temperature histories. This discrepancy precludes understanding the factors that drove past (and potentially future) climate change and calls for independent proxies to advance the debate. We present a ~13.6 ka summer temperature reconstruction in central Yukon, part of Eastern Beringia, using precipitation isotopes in syngenetic permafrost. The reconstruction shows that early Holocene summers were consistently warmer than the Holocene mean, as supported by midges, and a thermal maximum at ~7.6-6.6 ka BP. This maximum was followed by a ~6 ka cooling, and later abruptly reversed by industrial-era warming leading to a modern climate that is unprecedented in the Holocene context and exceeds the Holocene thermal maximum by +1.7 ± 0.7 °C.

Abrupt ice-age shifts in southern westerly winds and Antarctic climate forced from the north.

The mid-latitude westerly winds of the Southern Hemisphere play a central role in the global climate system via Southern Ocean upwelling1, carbon exchange with the deep ocean2, Agulhas leakage (transport of Indian Ocean waters into the Atlantic)3 and possibly Antarctic ice-sheet stability4. Meridional shifts of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds have been hypothesized to occur5,6 in parallel with the well-documented shifts of the intertropical convergence zone7 in response to Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events- abrupt North Atlantic climate change events of the last ice age. Shifting moisture pathways to West Antarctica8 are consistent with this view but may represent a Pacific teleconnection pattern forced from the tropics9. The full response of the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation to the DO cycle and its impact on Antarctic temperature remain unclear10. Here we use five ice cores synchronized via volcanic markers to show that the Antarctic temperature response to the DO cycle can be understood as the superposition of two modes: a spatially homogeneous oceanic 'bipolar seesaw' mode that lags behind Northern Hemisphere climate by about 200 years, and a spatially heterogeneous atmospheric mode that is synchronous with abrupt events in the Northern Hemisphere. Temperature anomalies of the atmospheric mode are similar to those associated with present-day Southern Annular Mode variability, rather than the Pacific-South American pattern. Moreover, deuterium-excess records suggest a zonally coherent migration of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds over all ocean basins in phase with Northern Hemisphere climate. Our work provides a simple conceptual framework for understanding circum-Antarctic temperature variations forced by abrupt Northern Hemisphere climate change. We provide observational evidence of abrupt shifts in the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds, which have previously documented1-3 ramifications for global ocean circulation and atmospheric carbon dioxide. These coupled changes highlight the necessity of a global, rather than a purely North Atlantic, perspective on the DO cycle.

The prescience of paleoclimatology and the future of the Antarctic ice sheet.

The emerging view that the West Antarctic ice sheet is in the early stage of collapse owes as much to paleoclimatology as to contemporary observations.

Deglacial temperature history of West Antarctica.

The most recent glacial to interglacial transition constitutes a remarkable natural experiment for learning how Earth's climate responds to various forcings, including a rise in atmospheric CO2 This transition has left a direct thermal remnant in the polar ice sheets, where the exceptional purity and continual accumulation of ice permit analyses not possible in other settings. For Antarctica, the deglacial warming has previously been constrained only by the water isotopic composition in ice cores, without an absolute thermometric assessment of the isotopes' sensitivity to temperature. To overcome this limitation, we measured temperatures in a deep borehole and analyzed them together with ice-core data to reconstruct the surface temperature history of West Antarctica. The deglacial warming was [Formula: see text]C, approximately two to three times the global average, in agreement with theoretical expectations for Antarctic amplification of planetary temperature changes. Consistent with evidence from glacier retreat in Southern Hemisphere mountain ranges, the Antarctic warming was mostly completed by 15 kyBP, several millennia earlier than in the Northern Hemisphere. These results constrain the role of variable oceanic heat transport between hemispheres during deglaciation and quantitatively bound the direct influence of global climate forcings on Antarctic temperature. Although climate models perform well on average in this context, some recent syntheses of deglacial climate history have underestimated Antarctic warming and the models with lowest sensitivity can be discounted.

Routine high-precision analysis of triple water-isotope ratios using cavity ring-down spectroscopy.

RATIONALE: Water isotope analysis for δ(2) H and δ(18) O values via laser spectroscopy is routine for many laboratories. While recent work has added the δ(17) O value to the high-precision suite, it does not follow that researchers will routinely obtain high precision (17) O excess (Δ(17) O). We demonstrate the routine acquisition of high-precision δ(2) H, δ(17) O, δ(18) O, d, and Δ(17) O values using a commercially available laser spectroscopy instrument. METHODS: We use a Picarro L2140-i cavity ring-down spectroscopy analyzer with discrete liquid injections into an A0211 vaporization module by a Leap Technologies LC PAL autosampler. The instrument is run in two modes: (1) as recommended by the manufacturer (default mode) and (2) after modifying select default settings and using alternative data types (advanced mode). Reference waters analyzed over the course of 15 months while running unknown samples are used to assess system performance. RESULTS: The default mode provides precision for δ(2) H, δ(17) O, δ(18) O, d, and Δ(17) O values that may be sufficient for many applications. When using the advanced mode, we reach a higher level of precision for δ(2) H, δ(17) O, δ(18) O, d, and Δ(17) O values (0.4 mUr, 0.04 mUr, 0.07 mUr, 0.5 mUr, and 8 µUr, respectively, where mUr = 0.001 = ‰, and µUr = 10(-6) ) in a shorter amount of time and with fewer syringe actuations than in the default mode. The improved performance results from an increase in the total integration time for each injected water pulse. CONCLUSIONS: Our recommended approach for routine δ(2) H, δ(17) O, δ(18) O, d and Δ(17) O measurements with the Picarro L2140-i is to make use of conditioning vials, use fewer injections (5 per vial) with greater pulse duration (520 seconds (s) per injection) and use only the first 120 s for δ(2) H measurements and all 520 s for δ(17) O and δ(18) O measurements. Although the sample throughput is 10 unknowns per day, our optimal approach reduces the number of syringe actuations, the effect of memory, and the total analysis time, while improving precision relative to the default approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evidence for the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet divide for 1.4 million years.

Past fluctuations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) are of fundamental interest because of the possibility of WAIS collapse in the future and a consequent rise in global sea level. However, the configuration and stability of the ice sheet during past interglacial periods remains uncertain. Here we present geomorphological evidence and multiple cosmogenic nuclide data from the southern Ellsworth Mountains to suggest that the divide of the WAIS has fluctuated only modestly in location and thickness for at least the last 1.4 million years. Fluctuations during glacial-interglacial cycles appear superimposed on a long-term trajectory of ice-surface lowering relative to the mountains. This implies that as a minimum, a regional ice sheet centred on the Ellsworth-Whitmore uplands may have survived Pleistocene warm periods. If so, it constrains the WAIS contribution to global sea level rise during interglacials to about 3.3 m above present.

Centennial-scale changes in the global carbon cycle during the last deglaciation.

Global climate and the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are correlated over recent glacial cycles. The combination of processes responsible for a rise in atmospheric CO2 at the last glacial termination (23,000 to 9,000 years ago), however, remains uncertain. Establishing the timing and rate of CO2 changes in the past provides critical insight into the mechanisms that influence the carbon cycle and helps put present and future anthropogenic emissions in context. Here we present CO2 and methane (CH4) records of the last deglaciation from a new high-accumulation West Antarctic ice core with unprecedented temporal resolution and precise chronology. We show that although low-frequency CO2 variations parallel changes in Antarctic temperature, abrupt CO2 changes occur that have a clear relationship with abrupt climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere. A significant proportion of the direct radiative forcing associated with the rise in atmospheric CO2 occurred in three sudden steps, each of 10 to 15 parts per million. Every step took place in less than two centuries and was followed by no notable change in atmospheric CO2 for about 1,000 to 1,500 years. Slow, millennial-scale ventilation of Southern Ocean CO2-rich, deep-ocean water masses is thought to have been fundamental to the rise in atmospheric CO2 associated with the glacial termination, given the strong covariance of CO2 levels and Antarctic temperatures. Our data establish a contribution from an abrupt, centennial-scale mode of CO2 variability that is not directly related to Antarctic temperature. We suggest that processes operating on centennial timescales, probably involving the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, seem to be influencing global carbon-cycle dynamics and are at present not widely considered in Earth system models.

Tropical forcing of the recent rapid Arctic warming in northeastern Canada and Greenland.

Rapid Arctic warming and sea-ice reduction in the Arctic Ocean are widely attributed to anthropogenic climate change. The Arctic warming exceeds the global average warming because of feedbacks that include sea-ice reduction and other dynamical and radiative feedbacks. We find that the most prominent annual mean surface and tropospheric warming in the Arctic since 1979 has occurred in northeastern Canada and Greenland. In this region, much of the year-to-year temperature variability is associated with the leading mode of large-scale circulation variability in the North Atlantic, namely, the North Atlantic Oscillation. Here we show that the recent warming in this region is strongly associated with a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is a response to anomalous Rossby wave-train activity originating in the tropical Pacific. Atmospheric model experiments forced by prescribed tropical sea surface temperatures simulate the observed circulation changes and associated tropospheric and surface warming over northeastern Canada and Greenland. Experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (ref. 16) models with prescribed anthropogenic forcing show no similar circulation changes related to the North Atlantic Oscillation or associated tropospheric warming. This suggests that a substantial portion of recent warming in the northeastern Canada and Greenland sector of the Arctic arises from unforced natural variability.

Nitrogen isotopes in ice core nitrate linked to anthropogenic atmospheric acidity change.

Nitrogen stable isotope ratio (δ(15)N) in Greenland snow nitrate and in North American remote lake sediments has decreased gradually beginning as early as ∼1850 Christian Era. This decrease was attributed to increasing atmospheric deposition of anthropogenic nitrate, reflecting an anthropogenic impact on the global nitrogen cycle, and the impact was thought to be amplified ∼1970. However, our subannually resolved ice core records of δ(15)N and major ions (e.g., NO3(-), SO4(2-)) over the last ∼200 y show that the decrease in δ(15)N is not always associated with increasing NO3(-) concentrations, and the decreasing trend actually leveled off ∼1970. Correlation of δ(15)N with H(+), NO3(-), and HNO3 concentrations, combined with nitrogen isotope fractionation models, suggests that the δ(15)N decrease from ∼1850-1970 was mainly caused by an anthropogenic-driven increase in atmospheric acidity through alteration of the gas-particle partitioning of atmospheric nitrate. The concentrations of NO3(-) and SO4(2-) also leveled off ∼1970, reflecting the effect of air pollution mitigation strategies in North America on anthropogenic NO(x) and SO2 emissions. The consequent atmospheric acidity change, as reflected in the ice core record of H(+) concentrations, is likely responsible for the leveling off of δ(15)N ∼1970, which, together with the leveling off of NO3(-) concentrations, suggests a regional mitigation of anthropogenic impact on the nitrogen cycle. Our results highlight the importance of atmospheric processes in controlling δ(15)N of nitrate and should be considered when using δ(15)N as a source indicator to study atmospheric flux of nitrate to land surface/ecosystems.

Strong sensitivity of Pine Island ice-shelf melting to climatic variability.

Pine Island Glacier has thinned and accelerated over recent decades, significantly contributing to global sea-level rise. Increased oceanic melting of its ice shelf is thought to have triggered those changes. Observations and numerical modeling reveal large fluctuations in the ocean heat available in the adjacent bay and enhanced sensitivity of ice-shelf melting to water temperatures at intermediate depth, as a seabed ridge blocks the deepest and warmest waters from reaching the thickest ice. Oceanic melting decreased by 50% between January 2010 and 2012, with ocean conditions in 2012 partly attributable to atmospheric forcing associated with a strong La Niña event. Both atmospheric variability and local ice shelf and seabed geometry play fundamental roles in determining the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate.

Measurement of SLAP2 and GISP δ17O and proposed VSMOW-SLAP normalization for δ17O and 17O(excess).

RATIONALE: The absence of an agreed-upon δ(17)O value for the primary reference water SLAP leads to significant discrepancies in the reported values of δ(17)O and the parameter (17)O(excess). The accuracy of δ(17)O and (17)O(excess) values is significantly improved if the measurements are normalized using a two-point calibration, following the convention for δ(2)H and δ(18)O values. METHODS: New measurements of the δ(17)O values of SLAP2 and GISP are presented and compared with published data. Water samples were fluorinated with CoF(3). Helium carried the O(2) product to a 5A (4.2 to 4.4 Å) molecular sieve trap submerged in liquid nitrogen. The O(2) sample was introduced into a dual-inlet ThermoFinnigan MAT 253 isotope ratio mass spectrometer for measurement of m/z 32, 33, and 34. The δ(18)O and δ(17) values were calculated after 90 comparisons with an O(2) reference gas. RESULTS: We propose that the accepted δ(17)O value of SLAP be defined in terms of δ(18) O = -55.5 ‰ and (17)O(excess) = 0, yielding a δ(17)O value of approximately -29.6986 ‰ [corrected]. Using this definition for SLAP and the recommended normalization procedure, the δ(17)O value of GISP is -13.16 ± 0.05 ‰ and the (17)O(excess) value of GISP is 22 ± 11 per meg. Correcting previous published values of GISP δ(17)O to both VSMOW and SLAP improves the inter-laboratory precision by about 10 per meg. CONCLUSIONS: The data generated here and compiled from previous studies provide a substantial volume of evidence to evaluate the various normalization techniques currently used for triple oxygen isotope measurements. We recommend that reported δ(17) O and (17)O(excess) values be normalized to the VSMOW-SLAP scale, using a definition of SLAP such that its (17)O(excess) is exactly zero.