Dutch Design: Practice Guidelines for Group Treatment in the Netherlands.

The American Group Psychotherapy Association (AGPA) Practice Guidelines helped inspire the Dutch Group Therapy Association (NVGP) to develop the Dutch Practice Guidelines for Group Treatment. In this article, we provide a short review of the history of Dutch group psychotherapy. We discuss socioeconomic developments in the Netherlands and their consequences for health care in general and group psychotherapy in particular. After that, we introduce the procedures of the NVGP Dutch Task Force in developing their Practice Guidelines including their process to reach expert consensus. We then elaborate on the similarities and differences between the American and the Dutch Practice Guidelines. We end by presenting future directions and thoughts on international cooperation in the development of evidence-based practice guidelines for group treatment.

Is IUI with ovarian stimulation effective in couples with unexplained subfertility?

STUDY QUESTION: Does starting IUI with ovarian stimulation (IUI-OS) within 1.5 years after completion of the fertility workup increase ongoing pregnancy rates compared to expectant management in couples with unexplained subfertility? SUMMARY ANSWER: IUI-OS is associated with higher chances of ongoing pregnancy compared to expectant management in unexplained subfertile couples, specifically those with poor prognoses of natural conception, i.e. <15% over 6 months or <25% over 1 year. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: IUI-OS is often the first-line treatment for couples with unexplained subfertility. Two randomized controlled trials compared IUI-OS to expectant management using different thresholds for the prognosis of natural conception as inclusion criteria and found conflicting results. A cohort of couples with unexplained subfertility exposed to expectant management and IUI-OS offers an opportunity to determine the chances of conception after both strategies and to evaluate whether the effect of IUI-OS depends on a couple's prognosis of natural conception. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A prospective cohort study on couples with unexplained or mild male subfertility who could start IUI-OS at any point after completion of the fertility workup, recruited in seven Dutch centres between January 2002 and February 2004. Decisions regarding treatment were subject to local protocols, the judgement of the clinician and the wishes of the couple. Couples with bilateral tubal occlusion, anovulation or a total motile sperm count <1 × 106 were excluded. Follow up was censored at the start of IVF, after the last IUI cycle or at last contact and truncated at a maximum of 1.5 years after the fertility workup. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: The endpoint was time to conception leading to an ongoing pregnancy. We used the sequential Cox approach comparing in each month ongoing pregnancy rates over the next 6 months of couples who started IUI-OS to couples who did not. We calculated the prognosis of natural conception for individual couples, updated this over consecutive failed cycles and evaluated whether prognosis modified the effect of starting IUI-OS. We corrected for known predictors of conception using inverse probability weighting. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Data from 1896 couples were available. There were 800 couples whom had at least one IUI-OS cycle within 1.5 years post fertility workup of whom 142 couples conceived (rate: 0.50 per couple per year, median follow up 4 months). The median period between fertility workup completion and starting IUI-OS was 6.5 months. Out of 1096 untreated couples, 386 conceived naturally (rate: 0.31 per couple per year, median follow up 7 months). Starting IUI-OS was associated with a higher chance of ongoing pregnancy by a pooled, overall hazard ratio of 1.96 (95% CI: 1.47-2.62) compared to expectant management. The effect of treatment was modified by a couple's prognosis of achieving natural conception (P = 0.01), with poorer prognoses or additional failed natural cycles being associated with a stronger effect of treatment. The predicted 6-month ongoing pregnancy rate for a couple with a prognosis of 25% at completion of the fertility workup over the next six cycles (~40% over 1 year) was 25% (95% CI: 21-28%) for expectant management and 24% (95% CI: 9-36%) when starting IUI-OS directly. For a couple with a prognosis of 15% (25% over 1 year), these predicted rates were 17% (95% CI: 15-19%) for expectant management and 24% (95% CI: 15-32%) for starting IUI-OS. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The effect estimates are based on a prospective cohort followed up for 1.5 years after completion of the fertility workup. Although we balanced the known predictors of conception between treated and untreated couples using inverse probability weighting, observational data may be subject to residual confounding. The results need to be confirmed in external datasets. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: These results explain the discrepancies between previous trials that compared IUI-OS to expectant management, but further studies are required to establish the threshold at which IUI-OS is (cost-)effective. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This study was facilitated by (Grant 945/12/002) from ZonMW, The Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development, The Hague, The Netherlands. B.W.M. is supported by a NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548). B.W.M. reports consultancy for ObsEva, Merck and Guerbet. S.B. reports acting as Editor-in-Chief of HROpen. The other authors have no conflicts of interest.

The therapeutic effect of hysterosalpingography in couples with unexplained subfertility: a post-hoc analysis of a prospective multi-centre cohort study.

RESEARCH QUESTION: Hysterosalpingography (HSG) with an oil-based contrast has been shown to increase ongoing pregnancy rates compared with HSG with water-based contrast, but it remains unclear if an effect of HSG occurs compared with no HSG. DESIGN: A secondary data-analysis of a prospective cohort study among 4556 couples that presented with unexplained subfertility in 38 clinics in the Netherlands between January 2002 and December 2004. A time-varying Cox regression with inverse probability of treatment weighing was used to analyse ongoing pregnancy rates in women after undergoing the HSG procedure (with the use of either water- or oil-based contrast media) compared with women who did not undergo HSG. RESULTS: The probability of natural conception within 24 months after first presentation at the fertility clinic was increased after HSG, regardless of the type of contrast medium used, compared with no HSG (adjusted hazard ratio 1.48, 95% CI 1.26 to 1.73, corresponding to an absolute increase in 6-month pregnancy rate of +6%). When this analysis was limited to HSGs that were made with water-contrast, the treatment effect remained (adjusted hazard ratio 1.40, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.70). CONCLUSIONS: HSG increases the ongoing pregnancy rate of couples with unexplained subfertility compared with no HSG, regardless of the contrast medium used. Results need to be validated in future, preferably randomized, studies.

Natural conception: repeated predictions over time.

STUDY QUESTION: How can we predict chances of natural conception at various time points in couples diagnosed with unexplained subfertility? SUMMARY ANSWER: We developed a dynamic prediction model that can make repeated predictions over time for couples with unexplained subfertility that underwent a fertility workup at a fertility clinic. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: The most frequently used prediction model for natural conception (the 'Hunault model') estimates the probability of natural conception only once per couple, that is, after completion of the fertility workup. This model cannot be used for a second or third time for couples who wish to know their renewed chances after a certain period of expectant management. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A prospective cohort studying the long-term follow-up of subfertile couples included in 38 centres in the Netherlands between January 2002 and February 2004. Couples with bilateral tubal occlusion, anovulation or a total motile sperm count <1 × 106 were excluded. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: The primary endpoint was time to natural conception, leading to an ongoing pregnancy. Follow-up time was censored at the start of treatment or at the last date of contact. In developing the new dynamic prediction model, we used the same predictors as the Hunault model, i.e. female age, duration of subfertility, female subfertility being primary or secondary, sperm motility and referral status. The performance of the model was evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination. Additionally, we assessed the utility of the model in terms of the variability of the calculated predictions. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Of the 4999 couples in the cohort, 1053 (21%) women reached a natural conception leading to an ongoing pregnancy within a mean follow-up of 8 months (5th and 95th percentile: 1-21). Our newly developed dynamic prediction model estimated the median probability of conceiving in the first year after the completion of the fertility workup at 27%. For couples not yet pregnant after half a year, after one year and after one and a half years of expectant management, the median probability of conceiving over the next year was estimated at 20, 15 and 13%, respectively. The model performed fair in an internal validation. The prediction ranges were sufficiently broad to aid in counselling couples for at least two years after their fertility workup. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The dynamic prediction model needs to be validated in an external population. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: This dynamic prediction model allows reassessment of natural conception chances after various periods of unsuccessful expectant management. This gives valuable information to counsel couples with unexplained subfertility that are seen for a fertility workup. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: This study was facilitated by grant 945/12/002 from ZonMW, The Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development, The Hague, The Netherlands. No competing interests.

Prognostic profiles and the effectiveness of assisted conception: secondary analyses of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: At present, it is unclear which treatment strategy is best for couples with unexplained or mild male subfertility. We hypothesized that the prognostic profile influences the effectiveness of assisted conception. We addressed this issue by analysing individual patient data (IPD) from randomized controlled trials (RCTs). METHODS: We performed an IPD analysis of published RCTs on treatment strategies for subfertile couples. Eligible studies were identified from Cochrane systematic reviews and we also searched Medline and EMBASE. The authors of RCTs that compared expectant management (EM), intracervical insemination (ICI), intrauterine insemination (IUI), all three with or without controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) and IVF in couples with unexplained or male subfertility, and had reported live birth or ongoing pregnancy as an outcome measure, were invited to share their data. For each individual patient the chance of natural conception was calculated with a validated prognostic model. We constructed prognosis-by-treatment curves and tested whether there was a significant interaction between treatment and prognosis. RESULTS: We acquired data from 8 RCTs, including 2550 couples. In three studies (n = 954) the more invasive treatment strategies tended to be less effective in couples with a high chance of natural conception but this difference did not reach statistical significance (P-value for interaction between prognosis and treatment outcome were 0.71, 0.31 and 0.19). In one study (n = 932 couples) the strategies with COS (ICI and IUI) led to higher pregnancy rates than unstimulated strategies (ICI 8% versus 15%, IUI 13% versus 22%), regardless of prognosis (P-value for interaction in all comparisons >0.5), but at the expense of a high twin rate in the COS strategies (ICI 6% versus 23% and IUI 3% versus 30%, respectively). In two studies (n = 373 couples), the more invasive treatment strategies tended to be more effective in couples with a good prognosis but this difference did not reach statistical significance (P-value for interaction: 0.38 and 0.68). In one study (n = 253 couples) the differential effect of prognosis on treatment effect was limited (P-value for interaction 0.52), perhaps because prognosis was incorporated in the inclusion criteria. The only study that compared EM with IVF included 38 couples, too small for a precise estimate. CONCLUSIONS: In this IPD analysis of couples with unexplained or male subfertility, we did not find a large differential effect of prognosis on the effectiveness of fertility treatment with IUI, COS or IVF.

Inter-clinic variation in the chances of natural conception of subfertile couples.

STUDY QUESTION: Are there differences between clinics in the chances of natural conception of couples? SUMMARY ANSWER: We found significant differences between clinics in the couples' natural conception chances, which could not be explained by differences in characteristics of the patients or the clinics. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: In pooled data from multiple centers the synthesis prediction model for natural conception was found to be valid, yet the outcome of interest (i.e. natural conception) might differ between centers. Possible differences between clinics in natural conception rates, as well as the validity of the prediction model in each individual clinic are addressed in this paper. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE AND DURATION: A secondary data-analysis of a prospective cohort study among 3020 subfertile couples recruited in 38 clinics in the Netherlands between January 2002 and December 2004. Clinics with less than 20 couples were excluded from the analyses, resulting in 21 clinics with 2916 couples. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Inclusion of 2916 subfertile couples who underwent a basic fertility work-up. Couples were excluded who had a fertility disorder (one or two-sided tubal pathology, ovulation disorder, total motile sperm count <3 × 10(6)). Included couples were counseled for expectant management for at least six months or followed until the first day of treatment. Follow-up began at the completion of the fertility work-up. Couples lost to follow-up were censored at the last day of contact. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and a log-rank statistic were estimated. Crude and adjusted hazard ratios were determined, adjusted for patient characteristics and the type of clinic (university hospitals with an assisted conception unit (ACU), non-university hospitals with an ACU and non-university hospitals without an ACU). Hazard ratios were also ascertained with empirical Bayes (EB) estimates. Validation of the prediction model per clinic was performed through calibration. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: We found significant differences between clinics in the chance of ongoing pregnancy (P < 0.001); even after adjustment for female age, duration of subfertility, percentage of progressive motile sperm, primary/secondary subfertility and post-coital test (P < 0.001). Adjusted hazard ratios and EB estimates ranged from 0.50 to 2.21 and 0.58 to 1.53, respectively. Among the 21 clinics, there were 4 university hospitals, 10 non-university hospitals with an ACU and 7 non-university hospitals without an ACU. In the multivariable analysis, the type of clinic was not significant (P = 0.11). Calibration gave an average intercept of -0.25 (95% range: -1.04-0.53) and average slope of 0.81 (95% range: 0.03-1.60). Six clinics had a negative intercept that differed significantly from zero and three clinics had a negative or positive slope that differed significantly from one. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: A more extensive model including more predictors could give less variation in the differences between the clinics. Variation in work-up protocol between clinics could also have played a role. In fertility prediction research the Cox proportional hazards regression is the most widely used statistical model, but as the underlying assumptions have rarely been evaluated, this model could lead to biased outcomes. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Our findings suggest that the synthesis model to predict natural conception is useful overall in clinical practice but in a minority of clinics the model is not well calibrated. Updating the synthesis model to include a center-specific baseline chance might improve the synthesis model for certain clinics. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): The study (on which this secondary data-analysis was based) was supported by grant 945/12/002 from ZonMW, the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development, The Hague, the Netherlands.

Integration of patient characteristics and the results of Chlamydia antibody testing and hysterosalpingography in the diagnosis of tubal pathology: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Tubal patency tests are routinely performed in the diagnostic work-up of subfertile patients, but it is unknown whether these diagnostic tests add value beyond the information obtained by medical history taking and findings at physical examination. We used individual patient data meta-analysis to assess this question. METHODS: We approached authors of primary studies for data sets containing information on patient characteristics and results from tubal patency tests, such as Chlamydia antibody test (CAT), hysterosalpingography (HSG) and laparoscopy. We used logistic regression to create models that predict tubal pathology from medical history and physical examination alone, as well as models in which the results of tubal patency tests are integrated in the patient characteristics model. Laparoscopy was considered to be the reference test. RESULTS: We obtained data from four studies reporting on 4883 women. The duration of subfertility, number of previous pregnancies and a history of previous pelvic inflammatory disease (PID), pelvic surgery or Chlamydia infection qualified for the patient characteristics model. This model showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61-0.65]. For any tubal pathology, the addition of HSG significantly improved the predictive performance to an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI 0.73-0.76) (P < 0.001). For bilateral tubal pathology, the addition of both CAT and HSG increased the predictive performance to an AUC of 0.76 (95% CI 0.74-0.79). CONCLUSIONS: In the work-up for subfertile couples, the combination of patient characteristics with CAT and HSG results gives the best diagnostic performance for the diagnosis of bilateral tubal pathology.

The prognostic profile of subfertile couples and treatment outcome after expectant management, intrauterine insemination and in vitro fertilisation: a study protocol for the meta-analysis of individual patient data.

OBJECTIVE: The current evidence concerning the best treatment option for couples with unexplained and male subfertility is inconclusive. Most studies that have evaluated the effectiveness of treatment options, such as expectant management (EM), intrauterine insemination (IUI), with or without controlled ovarian stimulation (COS), and in vitro fertilisation (IVF), have not taken the couples' prognosis into account. It is very likely that the individual prognosis of the couple influences the effect of treatment. Individual patient data analyses allow us to take these prognostic factors into account, and to evaluate their effect on treatment outcome. This study aims to use anonymised data from relevant published trials to perform an individual patient data meta-analysis, evaluating the effect of couples' prognosis on the effectiveness of EM, IUI, with or without COS, and IVF. METHODS: Based on earlier systematic reviews and an updated search, randomised controlled trials will be considered for inclusion. Untreated subfertile couples with unexplained or male subfertility included in trials comparing EM, IUI, with or without COS, and IVF are included. Authors of the included studies will be invited to share their original anonymised data. The data will be assessed on validity, quality and completeness. The prognosis of the individual couple will be calculated with existing prognostic models. The effect of the prognosis on treatment outcome will be analysed with marker-by-treatment predictiveness curves, illustrating the effect of prognosis on treatment outcome. This study is registered in PROSPERO (registration number CRD42011001832). CONCLUSION: Ultimately, this study may help to select the appropriate fertility treatment, tailored to the needs of an individual couple.

Chlamydia trachomatis IgG seropositivity is associated with lower natural conception rates in ovulatory subfertile women without visible tubal pathology.

BACKGROUND: The relation between Chlamydia trachomatis infection and subsequent tubal damage is widely recognized. As such, C. trachomatis antibody (CAT) testing can be used to triage women for immediate tubal testing with hysterosalpingography (HSG) or laparoscopy. However, once invasive tubal testing has ruled out tubal pathology, CAT serology status is ignored, as its clinical significance is currently unknown. This study aimed to determine whether positive CAT serology is associated with lower spontaneous pregnancy rates in women in whom HSG and/or diagnostic laparoscopy showed no visible tubal pathology. METHODS: We studied ovulatory women in whom HSG or laparoscopy showed patent tubes. Women were tested for C. trachomatis immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies with either micro-immunofluorescence (MIF) or an ELISA. CAT serology was positive if the MIF titre was ≥ 1:32 or if the ELISA index was >1.1. The proportion of couples pregnant without treatment was estimated at 12 months of follow-up. Time to pregnancy was considered censored at the date of the last contact when the woman was not pregnant or at the start of treatment. The association between CAT positivity and an ongoing pregnancy was evaluated with Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Of the 1882 included women without visible tubal pathology, 338 (18%) had a treatment-independent pregnancy within 1 year [estimated cumulative pregnancy rate 31%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 27-35%]. Because of differential censoring after 9 months of follow-up, regression analyses were limited to the first 9 months after tubal testing. Positive C. trachomatis IgG serology was associated with a statistically significant 33% lower probability of an ongoing pregnancy [adjusted fecundity rate ratio 0.66 (95% CI 0.49-0.89)]. CONCLUSIONS: Even after HSG or laparoscopy has shown no visible tubal pathology, subfertile women with a positive CAT have lower pregnancy chances than CAT negative women. After external validation, this finding could be incorporated into existing prognostic models.

Tailored expectant management: risk factors for non-adherence.

INTRODUCTION: Prediction models for spontaneous pregnancy are useful tools to prevent overtreatment, complications and costs in subfertile couples with a good prognosis. The use of such models and subsequent expectant management in couples with a good prognosis are recommended in the Dutch fertility guidelines, but not fully implemented. In this study, we assess risk factors for non-adherence to tailored expectant management. METHODS: Couples with mild male, unexplained and cervical subfertility were included in this multicentre prospective cohort study. If the probability of spontaneous pregnancy within 12 months was ≥40%, expectant management for 6-12 months was advised. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify patient and clinical characteristics associated with non-adherence to tailored expectant management. RESULTS: We included 3021 couples of whom 1130 (38%) had a ≥40% probability of a spontaneous pregnancy. Follow-up was available for 1020 (90%) couples of whom 214 (21%) had started treatment between 6 and 12 months and 153 (15%) within 6 months. A higher female age and a longer duration of subfertility were associated with treatment within 6 months (OR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01-1.1; OR: 1.4; 95% CI: 1.1-1.8). A fertility doctor in a clinical team reduced the risk of treatment within 6 months (OR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.39-0.99). CONCLUSIONS: In couples with a favorable prognosis for spontaneous pregnancy, there is considerable overtreatment, especially if the woman is older and duration of the subfertility is longer. The presence of a fertility doctor in a clinic may prevent early treatment.

Chlamydia antibody testing and diagnosing tubal pathology in subfertile women: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The Chlamydia IgG antibody test (CAT) shows considerable variations in reported estimates of test accuracy, partly because of the use of different assays and cut-off values. The aim of this study was to reassess the accuracy of CAT in diagnosing tubal pathology by individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis for three different CAT assays. METHODS: We approached authors of primary studies that used micro-immunofluorescence tests (MIF), immunofluorescence tests (IF) or enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay tests (ELISA). Using the obtained IPD, we performed pooled receiver operator characteristics analysis and logistic regression analysis with a random effects model to compare the three assays. Tubal pathology was defined as either any tubal obstruction or bilateral tubal obstruction. RESULTS: We acquired data of 14 primary studies containing data of 6191 women, of which data of 3453 women were available for analysis. The areas under the curve for ELISA, IF and MIF were 0.64, 0.65 and 0.75, respectively (P-value < 0.001) for any tubal pathology and 0.66, 0.66 and 0.77, respectively (P-value = 0.01) for bilateral tubal pathology. CONCLUSIONS: In Chlamydia antibody testing, MIF is superior in the assessment of tubal pathology. In the initial screen for tubal pathology MIF should therefore be the test of first choice.

Are patient characteristics associated with the accuracy of hysterosalpingography in diagnosing tubal pathology? An individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Conventional meta-analysis has estimated the sensitivity and specificity of hysterosalpingography (HSG) to be 65% and 83%. The impact of patient characteristics on the accuracy of HSG is unknown. The aim of this study was to assess by individual patient data meta-analysis whether the accuracy of HSG is associated with different patient characteristics. METHODS: We approached authors of primary studies reporting on the accuracy of HSG using findings at laparoscopy as the reference. We assessed whether patient characteristics such as female age, duration of subfertility and a clinical history without risk factors for tubal pathology were associated with the accuracy of HSG, using a random intercept logistic regression model. RESULTS: We acquired data of seven primary studies containing data of 4521 women. Pooled sensitivity and specificity of HSG were 53% and 87% for any tubal pathology and 46% and 95% for bilateral tubal pathology. In women without risk factors, the sensitivity of HSG was 38% for any tubal pathology, compared with 61% in women with risk factors (P = 0.005). For bilateral tubal pathology, these rates were 13% versus 47% (P = 0.01). For bilateral tubal pathology, the sensitivity of HSG decreased with age [factor 0.93 per year (P = 0.05)]. The specificity of HSG was very stable across all subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: The accuracy of HSG in detecting tubal pathology was similar in all subgroups, except for women without risk factors in whom sensitivity was lower, possibly due to false-positive results at laparoscopy. HSG is a useful tubal patency screening test for all infertile couples.

The capacity of hysterosalpingography and laparoscopy to predict natural conception.

BACKGROUND: Laparoscopy has been claimed to be superior to hysterosalpingography (HSG) in predicting fertility. Whether this conclusion is applicable to a general subfertile population can be questioned as data in support of this claim were collected in third line centres. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic capacity of HSG and laparoscopy in a general subfertile population. METHODS: In 38 centres, we prospectively studied a cohort of patients referred for subfertility between 2002 and 2004, who underwent HSG and/or laparoscopy as part of their subfertility work-up. Follow-up started immediately after tubal testing and ended 12 months thereafter. Time to pregnancy was censored at the of date last contact, when the woman was not pregnant or at the start of treatment. Kaplan-Meier curves for the occurrence of spontaneous intrauterine pregnancy were constructed for patients without tubal pathology, for those with unilateral tubal pathology and for patients with bilateral tubal pathology at HSG or laparoscopy. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to calculate fecundity rate ratios (FRRs) to express associations between tubal pathology and the occurrence of an intrauterine pregnancy. RESULTS: Of the 3301 included patients, 2043 underwent HSG only, 747 underwent diagnostic laparoscopy only and 511 underwent both. At HSG, 322 (13%) patients showed unilateral tubal pathology and 135 (5%) showed bilateral tubal pathology. At laparoscopy, 167 (13%) showed unilateral tubal pathology and 215 (17%) showed bilateral tubal pathology. Multivariable analysis resulted in FRRs of 0.81 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.59-1.1] for unilateral, and 0.28 (95% CI: 0.13-0.59) for bilateral, tubal pathology at HSG. The FRRs at laparoscopy were 0.85 (95% CI: 0.47-1.52) for unilateral, and 0.24 (95% CI: 0.11-0.54) for bilateral, tubal pathology. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with unilateral tubal pathology at HSG and laparoscopy had a moderate reduction in pregnancy chances, whereas those with bilateral tubal pathology at HSG and laparoscopy had a severe reduction in pregnancy chances. This reduction was similar for HSG and laparoscopy, suggesting that HSG and laparoscopy have a comparable predictive capacity for natural conception.

[Intra-uterine insemination with controlled ovarian hyperstimulation compared to an expectant management in couples with unexplained subfertility and an intermediate prognosis: a randomised study]. / Intra-uteriene inseminatie met gecontroleerde ovariële hyperstimulatie vergeleken met een afwachtend beleid bij paren met onverklaarde subfertiliteit en een gemiddelde prognose: een gerandomiseerd onderzoek.

OBJECTIVE: Intrauterine insemination (IUI) with controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH) is commonly used as treatment of first choice in couples with unexplained subfertility. This treatment should only be applied when there is a realistic increase in chance of pregnancy, particularly because it carries the increased risk of multiple pregnancies. We evaluated the effectiveness of IUI with COH relative to expectant management in couples with unexplained subfertility and an intermediate prognosis of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy. DESIGN: Multicentre randomised clinical study. METHOD: 253 couples with unexplained subfertility and a probability of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy of 30% to 40% within 12 months, were randomly assigned to IUI with COH for 6 months or expectant management for 6 months. The primary endpoint of our study was ongoing pregnancy within 6 months. Analysis was carried out according to the intention to treat principle. This study was registered with the Dutch Trial Register and has the International Standard Randomised Clinical Trial number ISRCTN72675518. RESULTS: Of the 253 couples included, 127 couples were allocated to IUI with COH and 126 to expectant management. In the intervention group, 42 women (33%) conceived, of which 29 pregnancies were ongoing (23%). In the expectant management group, 40 women (32%) conceived, of which 34 pregnancies were ongoing (27%) (relative risk: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.63-1.1). In the expectant management group one twin pregnancy occurred and in the intervention group one woman conceived twins and one a triplet. CONCLUSION: A substantial beneficial effect of IUI with COH in couples with unexplained subfertility and an intermediate prognosis can be excluded. Expectant management for a period of 6 months therefore appears justified in these couples.

History of induced abortion and the risk of tubal pathology.

Tubal pathology is a common cause of subfertility. Identifying risk factors for tubal pathology in the medical history is important to distinguish between those couples who benefit from early tubal patency tests and those in whom presence of tubal pathology is less likely and delaying tubal tests is justified. This study evaluated whether a medical history of induced abortion is associated with an increased risk of tubal disease among subfertile couples. The reproductive history was determined for each couple. Tubal disease was diagnosed by hysterosalpingography and/or diagnostic laparoscopy. The association between reproductive history and the presence of tubal disease was assessed by calculating odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Data from 6149 couples were available for analysis. The OR for tubal pathology after a previous induced abortion was 1.6 (95% CI 1.3 to 1.9), after a previous ectopic pregnancy, 8.4 (95% CI 6.3 to 12), after a previous spontaneous miscarriage, 1.1 (95% CI 0.87 to 1.3), and after a previous live birth, 1.0 (95% CI 0.88 to 1.2). A history of induced abortion is associated with an increased risk of tubal pathology in subfertile couples. As a consequence, in subfertile women with a history of induced abortion, tubal patency tests should be considered early in the diagnostic work-up.

Identifying subfertile ovulatory women for timely tubal patency testing: a clinical decision rule based on medical history.

BACKGROUND: The aim of tubal testing is to identify women with bilateral tubal pathology in a timely manner, so they can be treated with IVF or tubal surgery. At present, it is unclear for which women early tubal testing is indicated, and in whom it can be deferred. METHODS: Data on 3716 women who underwent tubal patency testing as a part of their routine fertility workup were used to relate elements in their medical history to the presence of tubal pathology. With multivariable logistic regression, we constructed two diagnostic models. One in which tubal disease was defined as occlusion and/or severe adhesions of at least one tube, whereas in a second model, tubal disease was defined as the presence of bilateral abnormalities. RESULTS: Both models discriminated moderately well between women with and women without tubal disease with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.65 (95% CI: 0.63-0.68) for any tubal pathology and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.65-0.71) for bilateral tubal pathology, respectively. However, the models could make an almost perfect distinction between women with a high and a low probability of tubal pathology. A decision rule in the form of a simple diagnostic score chart was developed for application of the models in clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, the present study provides two easy to use decision rules that can accurately express a woman's probability of (severe) tubal pathology at the couple's first consultation. They could be used to select women for tubal testing more efficiently.

Pregnancy is predictable: a large-scale prospective external validation of the prediction of spontaneous pregnancy in subfertile couples.

BACKGROUND: Prediction models for spontaneous pregnancy may be useful tools to select subfertile couples that have good fertility prospects and should therefore be counselled for expectant management. We assessed the accuracy of a recently published prediction model for spontaneous pregnancy in a large prospective validation study. METHODS: In 38 centres, we studied a consecutive cohort of subfertile couples, referred for an infertility work-up. Patients had a regular menstrual cycle, patent tubes and a total motile sperm count (TMC) >3 x 10(6). After the infertility work-up had been completed, we used a prediction model to calculate the chance of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy (www.freya.nl/probability.php). The primary end-point was time until the occurrence of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy within 1 year. The performance of the pregnancy prediction model was assessed with calibration, which is the comparison of predicted and observed ongoing pregnancy rates for groups of patients and discrimination. RESULTS: We included 3021 couples of whom 543 (18%) had a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy, 57 (2%) a non-successful pregnancy, 1316 (44%) started treatment, 825 (27%) neither started treatment nor became pregnant and 280 (9%) were lost to follow-up. Calibration of the prediction model was almost perfect. In the 977 couples (32%) with a calculated probability between 30 and 40%, the observed cumulative pregnancy rate at 12 months was 30%, and in 611 couples (20%) with a probability of >or=40%, this was 46%. The discriminative capacity was similar to the one in which the model was developed (c-statistic 0.59). CONCLUSIONS: As the chance of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy among subfertile couples can be accurately calculated, this prediction model can be used as an essential tool for clinical decision-making and in counselling patients. The use of the prediction model may help to prevent unnecessary treatment.

Do clinical prediction models improve concordance of treatment decisions in reproductive medicine?

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether the use of clinical prediction models improves concordance between gynaecologists with respect to treatment decisions in reproductive medicine. DESIGN: We constructed 16 vignettes of subfertile couples by varying fertility history, postcoital test, sperm motility, follicle-stimulating hormone level and Chlamydia antibody titre. SETTING: Thirty-five gynaecologists estimated three probabilities, i.e. the 1-year probability of spontaneous pregnancy, the pregnancy chance after intrauterine insemination (IUI) and the pregnancy chance after in vitro fertilisation (IVF). Subsequently they proposed therapeutic regimens for these 16 fictional couples, i.e. expectant management, IUI or IVF. Three months later, the participant gynaecologists again had to propose therapeutic regimes for the same 16 fictional cases but this time accompanied by pregnancy chances obtained from prediction models: predictions on spontaneous pregnancy, IUI and IVF. POPULATION: Thirty-five gynaecologists working in academic and nonacademic hospitals in the Netherlands. METHODS: Setting section. Main outcome measures The concordance between gynaecologists of probability estimates, expressed as interclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and the concordance between gynaecologists of treatment decisions, analysed by calculating Cohen's kappa (kappa). RESULTS: The gynaecologists differed widely in estimating pregnancy chances (ICC: 0.34). Furthermore, there was a huge variation in the proposed therapeutic regimens (kappa: 0.21). The treatment decisions made by gynaecologists were consistent with the ranking of their probability estimates. When prediction models were used, the concordance (kappa) for treatment decisions increased from 0.21 to 0.38. The number of gynaecologists counselling for expectant management increased from 39 to 51%, whereas counselling for IVF dropped from 23 to 14%. CONCLUSION: Gynaecologists differed widely in their estimation of prognosis in 16 fictional cases of subfertile couples. Their therapeutic regimens showed likewise huge variation. After confrontation with prediction models in the same 16 fictional cases, the proposed therapeutic regimens showed only slightly better concordance. Therefore a simple introduction of validated prediction models is insufficient to introduce concordant management between doctors.

[Results of intrauterine insemination in the Netherlands]. / Resultaten van intra-uteriene inseminatie in Nederland.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the results of intrauterine insemination (IUI) in the Netherlands. DESIGN: Retrospective. METHOD: Based on annual reports and individual reports from gynaecologists, we calculated the number of registered IUI cycles performed, the pregnancy rates per cycle, the ongoing pregnancy rates per cycle and the multiple pregnancy rates per ongoing pregnancy in 2003. By extrapolating these results, we estimated the total number of IUI cycles performed in 2003 in the Netherlands and the related outcomes. These results were compared with IUI pregnancy rates from the international literature and Dutch national data on in vitro fertilisation (IVF). RESULTS: In 2003, IUI was performed in 91 of the 101 hospitals in the Netherlands. Of these 91 hospitals, 58 (64%) registered their IUI results. These 58 hospitals performed 19,846 IUI cycles in 2003. The mean pregnancy rate per cycle was 9.0% and the ongoing pregnancy rate per cycle was 7.3%. Multiple pregnancies occurred in 9.5% of ongoing pregnancies. Extrapolation of the data of these 58 hospitals revealed that approximately 28,500 IUI cycles were performed in the Netherlands in 2003, of which approximately 2,000 resulted in an ongoing pregnancy. The number of multiple pregnancies following IUI was estimated to be 180 (9.0%). In the international literature, a pregnancy rate per cycle of 8.7% has been reported. According to the national IVF registry, 9,761 IVF cycles were started in 2003, resulting in 2,028 ongoing pregnancies (20.8% per cycle) and 439 twin pregnancies (21.6% per ongoing pregnancy). CONCLUSION: The pregnancy rate per IUI cycle in the Netherlands (9.0%) was comparable to that reported in the international literature (8.7%). The contribution of IUI to the number of multiple pregnancies in the Netherlands was much smaller than the contribution of IVF.