Drugs, guns, and violent crime in California.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence linking use of controlled substances with perpetration of interpersonal violence. While the United States constitution protects the right to own a firearm, federal law prohibits firearm purchase and possession by persons believed to be at high risk for violence, including those who use controlled substances unlawfully. METHODS: We report here the results of a 13-year prospective observational study on the risk of violent crime associated with a history of criminal drug charges in a cohort of 79,678 legal purchasers of handguns in California in 2001. The main outcomes were post-purchase charges for any violent crime, violent Crime Index crimes (murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault), and firearm-related violent crimes. The main exposure of interest was a history of pre-purchase charge(s) for drug-related offenses; we examined as a secondary exposure a history of marijuana-related charges. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) with 95 % confidence intervals (CI) using Cox proportional hazards multiple events models. RESULTS: We found that legal handgun purchasers in California with a history of drug-related charges, even those with marijuana charges only, had triple the risk of a post-purchase violent crime charge compared to purchasers with no criminal charges (drug charges only: aHR=2.9, 95 % CI 2.2-3.8; marijuana charges only: aHR=3.3, 95 % CI 1.8-6.0). In addition, a criminal history of drug charges only vs. no criminal history was associated with increased risk of one or more violent crime charges after the first post-purchase arrest event (aHR=1.6, 95 % CI 1.2-2.3). CONCLUSION: It is incumbent on researchers and policy makers to understand the nature and causes of this risk in order to take effective steps towards mitigation.

Comparison of record linkage software for deduplicating patient identities in California's Prescription Drug Monitoring Program.

BACKGROUND: To help prevent overdose deaths involving prescription drugs, accurate linkage of prescription drug monitoring program (PDMP) records for individual patients is essential. OBJECTIVES: To compare the accuracy of the linkage program used by California's PDMP against various record linkage programs with respect to accuracy in deduplicating patient identities in the PDMP, with implications for identifying high-risk opioid use and outlier behaviors. RESEARCH DESIGN: We evaluated California's program, Link Plus, LinkSolv, and The Link King on 557 861 PDMP identity records with addresses in two 3-digit zip code areas for patients who filled a controlled substance prescription in 2013. Manual review was performed on a stratified sample of 720 paired records identified as matches by at least one program. MEASURES: We estimated sensitivity and positive predictive value, and computed PDMP patient alerts for the patient entities identified by each program. RESULTS: Sensitivity was 95% for LinkSolv and The Link King, 84% for Link Plus, and 73% for California's program; positive predictive value was ≥93% for all programs. The number of patient entities prompting a PDMP alert was similar among the programs for all alerts except multiple provider episodes (obtaining prescriptions from ≥6 prescribers or ≥6 pharmacies in the last 6 months), which were 10.9%, 26.6%, and 16.9% greater using The Link King, Link Plus, and LinkSolv, respectively, compared to California's program. CONCLUSIONS: PDMPs should assess the accuracy of record linkage algorithms and the impacts of these algorithms on patient safety alerts and develop national best practices for PDMP record linkage.

Impact of 30-day prescribed opioid dose trajectory on fatal overdose risk: A population-based, statewide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Both increases and decreases in patients' prescribed daily opioid dose have been linked to increased overdose risk, but associations between 30-day dose trajectories and subsequent overdose risk have not been systematically examined. OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations between 30-day prescribed opioid dose trajectories and fatal opioid overdose risk during the subsequent 15 days. DESIGN: Statewide cohort study using linked prescription drug monitoring program and death certificate data. We constructed a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model that accounted for time-varying prescription-, prescriber-, and pharmacy-level factors. PARTICIPANTS: All patients prescribed an opioid analgesic in California from March to December, 2013 (5,326,392 patients). MAIN MEASURES: Dependent variable: fatal drug overdose involving opioids. Primary independent variable: a 16-level variable denoting all possible opioid dose trajectories using the following categories for current and 30-day previously prescribed daily dose: 0-29, 30-59, 60-89, or ≥90 milligram morphine equivalents (MME). KEY RESULTS: Relative to patients prescribed a stable daily dose of 0-29 MME, large (≥2 categories) dose increases and having a previous or current dose ≥60 MME per day were associated with significantly greater 15-day overdose risk. Patients whose dose decreased from ≥90 to 0-29 MME per day had significantly greater overdose risk compared to both patients prescribed a stable daily dose of ≥90 MME (aHR 3.56, 95%CI 2.24-5.67) and to patients prescribed a stable daily dose of 0-29 MME (aHR 7.87, 95%CI 5.49-11.28). Patients prescribed benzodiazepines also had significantly greater overdose risk; being prescribed Z-drugs, carisoprodol, or psychostimulants was not associated with overdose risk. CONCLUSIONS: Large (≥2 categories) 30-day dose increases and decreases were both associated with increased risk of fatal opioid overdose, particularly for patients taking ≥90 MME whose opioids were abruptly stopped. Results align with 2022 CDC guidelines that urge caution when reducing opioid doses for patients taking long-term opioid for chronic pain.

Disparities in treatment and survival in early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma in California.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Curative intent therapy is the standard of care for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, these therapies are under-utilized, with several treatment and survival disparities. We sought to demonstrate whether the type of facility and distance from treatment center (with transplant capabilities) contributed to disparities in curative-intent treatment and survival for early-stage HCC in California. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of the California Cancer Registry for patients diagnosed with stage I or II primary HCC between 2005 and 2017. Primary and secondary outcomes were receipt of treatment and overall survival, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression and Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression were used to evaluate associations. RESULTS: Of 19 059 patients with early-stage HCC, only 36% (6778) received curative-intent treatment. Compared to Non-Hispanic White patients, Hispanic patients were less likely, and Asian/Pacific Islander patients were more likely to receive curative-intent treatment. Our results showed that rural residence, public insurance, lower neighborhood SES, and care at non-National Cancer Institute-designated cancer center were associated with not receiving treatment and decreased survival. CONCLUSIONS: Although multiple factors influence receipt of treatment for early-HCC, our findings suggest that early intervention programs should target travel barriers and access to specialist care to help improve oncologic outcomes.

Intra- and Intertumoral Microglia/Macrophage Infiltration and Their Associated Molecular Signature Is Highly Variable in Canine Oligodendroglioma: A Preliminary Evaluation.

The goal of this study was to define the glioma-associated microglia/macrophage (GAM) response and associated molecular landscape in canine oligodendrogliomas. Here, we quantified the intratumoral GAM density of low- and high-grade oligodendrogliomas compared to that of a normal brain, as well as the intratumoral concentration of several known GAM-derived pro-tumorigenic molecules in high-grade oligodendrogliomas compared to that in a normal brain. Our analysis demonstrated marked intra- and intertumoral heterogeneity of GAM infiltration. Correspondingly, we observed significant variability in the intratumoral concentrations of several GAM-associated molecules, unlike what we previously observed in high-grade astrocytomas. However, high-grade oligodendroglioma tumor homogenates (n = 6) exhibited an increase in the pro-tumorigenic molecules hepatocyte growth factor receptor (HGFR) and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), as we observed in high-grade astrocytomas. Moreover, neoplastic oligodendrocytes displayed robust expression of GAL-3, a chimeric galectin implicated in driving immunosuppression in human glioblastoma. While this work identifies shared putative therapeutic targets across canine glioma subtypes (HGFR, GAL-3), it highlights several key differences in the immune landscape. Therefore, a continued effort to develop a comprehensive understanding of the immune microenvironment within each subtype is necessary to inform therapeutic strategies going forward.

Patient-Reported Outcomes of Kinematic vs Mechanical Alignment in Total Knee Arthroplasty: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.

Background: Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is an effective treatment method for severe osteoarthritis of the knee. Poor alignment of a knee replacement has been associated with suboptimal clinical results. Traditionally, mechanical alignment (MA) has been considered the gold standard. In light of reports of decreased satisfaction with TKA, a new technique called kinematic alignment (KA) has been developed. The purpose of this study is to (1) review the results of KA and MA for TKA in randomized controlled trials based on the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index score, the Oxford Knee Score, and the Knee Society Scores, (2) perform a meta-analyses of the randomized controlled trials with baseline and follow-up values of these parameters, and (3) discuss other shortcomings of this literature from the perspective of study design and execution. Methods: Two independent reviewers performed a systematic review of the English literature using the Embase, Scopus, and PubMed databases searching for randomized controlled trials of MA vs KA in TKA. Of the initial 481 published reports, 6 studies were included in the final review for meta-analysis. The individual studies were then analyzed to evaluate for risks of bias and inconsistencies of methodology. Results: A majority of studies demonstrated low risk of bias. All studies had fundamental technical issues by utilizing different techniques to achieve KA vs MA. There was no significant difference between KA and MA in these studies. Conclusions: There is no significant difference in any outcomes measured between KA and MA in TKA. Both statistical and methodological factors diminish the value of these conclusions.

Inhaled recombinant human IL-15 in dogs with naturally occurring pulmonary metastases from osteosarcoma or melanoma: a phase 1 study of clinical activity and correlates of response.

PURPOSE: Although recombinant human interleukin-15 (rhIL-15) has generated much excitement as an immunotherapeutic agent for cancer, activity in human clinical trials has been modest to date, in part due to the risks of toxicity with significant dose escalation. Since pulmonary metastases are a major site of distant failure in human and dog cancers, we sought to investigate inhaled rhIL-15 in dogs with naturally occurring lung metastases from osteosarcoma (OSA) or melanoma. We hypothesized a favorable benefit/risk profile given the concentrated delivery to the lungs with decreased systemic exposure. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We performed a phase I trial of inhaled rhIL-15 in dogs with gross pulmonary metastases using a traditional 3+3 cohort design. A starting dose of 10 µg twice daily × 14 days was used based on human, non-human primate, and murine studies. Safety, dose-limiting toxicities (DLT), and maximum tolerated dose (MTD) were the primary objectives, while response rates, progression-free and overall survival (OS), and pharmacokinetic and immune correlative analyses were secondary. RESULTS: From October 2018 to December 2020, we enrolled 21 dogs with 18 dogs reaching the 28-day response assessment to be evaluable. At dose level 5 (70 µg), we observed two DLTs, thereby establishing 50 µg twice daily × 14 days as the MTD and recommended phase 2 dose. Among 18 evaluable dogs, we observed one complete response >1 year, one partial response with resolution of multiple target lesions, and five stable disease for an overall clinical benefit rate of 39%. Plasma rhIL-15 quantitation revealed detectable and sustained rhIL-15 concentrations between 1-hour and 6 hour postnebulization. Decreased pretreatment lymphocyte counts were significantly associated with clinical benefit. Cytotoxicity assays of banked peripheral blood mononuclear cells revealed significant increases in peak cytotoxicity against canine melanoma and OSA targets that correlated with OS. CONCLUSIONS: In this first-in-dog clinical trial of inhaled rhIL-15 in dogs with advanced metastatic disease, we observed promising clinical activity when administered as a monotherapy for only 14 days. These data have significant clinical and biological implications for both dogs and humans with refractory lung metastases and support exploration of combinatorial therapies using inhaled rhIL-15.

The impact of California wildfires on patient access to prescription opioids.

BACKGROUND: Patients on long-term opioid therapy are particularly vulnerable to disruptions in medication access, especially during traumatic and chaotic events such as wildfires and other natural disasters. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether past highly destructive California wildfires were associated with disrupted access to prescription opioids for patients receiving long-term, and therefore physically dependent on, opioid medications. METHODS: Using California prescription drug monitoring program data, this retrospective study selected patients with long-term prescription opioid use episodes residing in ZIP code tabulation areas impacted by either the Camp Fire or Tubbs Fire. Autoregressive integrated moving average time series models were fit to pre-fire data to forecast post-fire expected values and then compared with observed post-fire data, specifically for weekly proportions of long-term episodes with early fills, late fills, changes in patients' prescriber and pharmacy, and fills within a different ZIP code tabulation area than the patient's residence. RESULTS: After the Camp Fire, there were significant spikes in the proportions of early fills (peak at 56% of total, week 1 after fire), late fills (peak at 29%, week 6), and immediate significant increases in prescriber (peak at 37%, week 3) and pharmacy changes (peak at 71%, week 1) in high-impact ZIP code tabulation areas. Low-impact ZIP code tabulation areas experienced no similar disruptions. Disruptions due to the Tubbs Fire were far less severe. CONCLUSION: Access to prescription opioids was greatly disrupted for patients living in areas most impacted by the Camp Fire. Future research should explore effectiveness of current state and federal controlled substance prescribing policies to determine what improvements are needed to minimize disruptions in medication access due to wildfires and other natural disasters.

Effect of a media intervention on hepatitis B screening among Vietnamese Americans.

Objective: There is a lack of controlled studies of community-wide interventions to increase screening for hepatitis B (HBV) among Asian Americans, particularly Vietnamese Americans, who disproportionately suffer from HBV-related illnesses. The objective of our study was to develop, implement, and evaluate the effectiveness of a media campaign to promote HBV screening among Vietnamese Americans.Design: We designed and implemented a three-year media campaign promoting HBV screening among Vietnamese Americans. Evaluation consisted of cross-sectional pre- and post-intervention population-based telephone surveys of Vietnamese Americans adults age 18-64 who spoke English or Vietnamese and lived in the Northern California (intervention) or Greater Washington, D.C. (comparison) communities in 2007 or 2011. Statistical analysis was completed in 2012. The main outcome was self-report of HBV testing, defined as participants answering 'Yes' to the question: 'Have you ever had a blood test to check for hepatitis B?'Results: The sample sizes at pre- and post-intervention were 1,704 and 1,666, respectively. Both communities reported increased exposure to HBV-related booklets, radio and television advertisements, and websites. Only the intervention community reported increased exposure to newspaper elements. HBV screening increased in both communities (intervention: 65.3% to 73.1%, p < 0.01, comparison: 57.7% to 66.0%, p < 0.01). In multivariable analyses, there was no intervention effect. In both communities, exposure to media elements (Odds Ratio 1.26 [95% Confidence Interval: 1.21, 1.31] for each additional element) was significantly associated with screening.Conclusions: Among Vietnamese Americans in 2 large communities, HBV screening rates were sub-optimal. Screening increased in both the intensive media intervention and comparison communities, and exposure to HBV-related media messages was associated with increased screening. Efforts to address HBV screening among Vietnamese Americans should include mass media messaging.

Intimate Partner Violence and Subsequent Violent Offending Among Handgun Purchasers.

Perpetrators of intimate partner violence (IPV) often reoffend, and firearm access increases risk of severe injury or fatality. Prior research identifies an association between a history of violent misdemeanor convictions among handgun purchasers and increased risk of subsequent arrest for a violent crime; the risk associated specifically with an IPV criminal history remains largely unexplored. The current study examined a cohort of 76,311 California adults who legally purchased a handgun in 2001 and followed them through 2013. Compared with purchasers who had no criminal history at the time of purchase, those with a history of only IPV (n = 178) charges were at increased risk of subsequent arrest for a violent Crime Index crime (murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault; adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 2.6; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.4-5.1), any violent crime (AHR, 3.2; 95% CI: 2.0-5.1), and an IPV crime (AHR, 5.2; 95% CI: 3.0-9.0). Purchasers with both IPV and non-IPV charges demonstrated the greatest risk of re-arrest relative to those with no criminal history. Despite the strength of the relationship between IPV and subsequent arrest, a small proportion of handgun purchasers with an IPV criminal history were re-arrested for firearm violence crimes, limiting application for risk assessment purposes. Results affirm prior research identifying IPV as a risk factor for future offending.

Alcohol and drug offenses and suicide risk among men who purchased a handgun in California: A cohort study.

Firearm access is a risk factor for firearm suicide; substance use may confer additional risk. In this retrospective cohort study, we estimated the associations between prior alcohol and drug charges at the time of handgun purchase and subsequent suicide among men in California. The sample comprised all men who legally purchased a handgun in California in 2001 and who were age ≥ 21 at the time of acquisition (N = 101,377), identified in the California Department of Justice (CA DOJ) Dealer's Record of Sale database. Exposures included alcohol and drug criminal charges and convictions accrued January 1, 1990 until the first ('index') handgun acquisition in 2001, recorded in the CA DOJ Criminal History Information System. Outcomes included suicide and firearm suicide occurring after the index purchase and before January 1, 2016. A total of 1907 purchasers had alcohol charges, 1248 had drug charges, and 304 had both; 594 purchasers died by suicide (516 by firearm suicide). Compared with those with neither alcohol nor drug charges, those with alcohol charges had 2.20 times the hazard of suicide (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.39-3.46) and 2.22 times the hazard of firearm suicide (95% CI, 1.36-3.62). Risk was most elevated among those with more recent charges and those with 2 or more charges, and in the time period closest to the purchase. The associations for drug charges and the combination of alcohol and drug charges were not distinguishable from the null. Firearm owners with alcohol offenses may benefit from intervention to reduce firearm access and alcohol use.

Impacts of prescription drug monitoring program policy changes and county opioid safety coalitions on prescribing and overdose outcomes in California, 2015-2018.

In 2015, California received funding to implement the Prescription Drug Overdose Prevention Initiative, a 4-year program to reduce deaths involving prescription opioids by 1) leveraging improvements to California's prescription drug monitoring program (PDMP) (i.e., mandatory PDMP registration for prescribers and pharmacists), and 2) supporting county opioid safety coalitions. We used statewide data from 2011 to 2018 to evaluate the Initiative's impact on opioid prescribing and overdose rates. Prescribing data were obtained from California's PDMP; fatal and non-fatal overdose data were obtained from the California Department of Public Health. Outcomes were monthly opioid prescribing rates and opioid overdose rates, modeled using generalized linear mixed models. Exposures were mandatory PDMP registration, presence of county coalitions, and Initiative support for county coalitions. Mandatory PDMP registration was associated with a 25% decrease (95%CI, 0.71-0.79) in opioid prescribing rates after 24 months. Having a county coalition was associated with a 2% decrease (95%CI, 0.96-0.99) in the opioid prescribing rate; receiving Initiative support was associated with an additional 2% decrease (95%CI, 0.97-0.98). Mandatory PDMP registration and county coalitions were associated with a 35% decrease (95%CI, 0.43-0.97) and a 21% decrease (95% CI, 0.70-0.90), respectively in prescription opioid overdose deaths. Both interventions were also associated with significantly fewer deaths involving any opioid but had no significant association with non-fatal overdose rates. Findings add to the knowledge available to guide policy to prevent high-risk prescribing and opioid overdoses. While further study is needed, coalitions and mandatory PDMP registration may be important components in such efforts.

A Risk Prediction Model for Long-term Prescription Opioid Use.

BACKGROUND: Tools are needed to aid clinicians in estimating their patients' risk of transitioning to long-term opioid use and to inform prescribing decisions. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to develop and validate a model that predicts previously opioid-naive patients' risk of transitioning to long-term use. RESEARCH DESIGN: This was a statewide population-based prognostic study. SUBJECTS: Opioid-naive (no prescriptions in previous 2 y) patients aged 12 years old and above who received a pill-form opioid analgesic in 2016-2018 and whose prescriptions were registered in the California Prescription Drug Monitoring Program (PDMP). MEASURES: A multiple logistic regression approach was used to construct a prediction model with long-term (ie, >90 d) opioid use as the outcome. Models were developed using 2016-2017 data and validated using 2018 data. Discrimination (c-statistic), calibration (calibration slope, intercept, and visual inspection of calibration plots), and clinical utility (decision curve analysis) were evaluated to assess performance. RESULTS: Development and validation cohorts included 7,175,885 and 2,788,837 opioid-naive patients with outcome rates of 5.0% and 4.7%, respectively. The model showed high discrimination (c-statistic: 0.904 for development, 0.913 for validation), was well-calibrated after intercept adjustment (intercept, -0.006; 95% confidence interval, -0.016 to 0.004; slope, 1.049; 95% confidence interval, 1.045-1.053), and had a net benefit over a wide range of probability thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: A model for the transition from opioid-naive status to long-term use had high discrimination and was well-calibrated. Given its high predictive performance, this model shows promise for future integration into PDMPs to aid clinicians in formulating opioid prescribing decisions at the point of care.

Childhood Socioeconomic Status and Menarche: A Prospective Study.

PURPOSE: The relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and menarche has implications for understanding social level influences on early life development and adult disease, including breast cancer, but remains ill defined. We report here results from the Breast Cancer and the Environment Research Program, which permitted a longitudinal study of age at menarche in relationship to childhood SES in a diverse cohort of 1,069 girls across three urban areas of the United States. METHODS: We assessed the association of SES index quintiles with age at pubertal onset with breast budding and subsequent tempo to the age at menarche between 2004 and 2015 using multiple-event Cox regression models to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: In an unadjusted model, lower SES was predictive of both earlier pubertal onset and tempo and thus earlier age at menarche in trends across quintiles. After adjusting for the potentially mediating effects of body mass index, SES trends remained significant for both outcomes. After adjusting for both body mass index and race/ethnicity, the association with SES remained substantial for pubertal onset but was much diminished and nonsignificant for tempo and thus age at menarche. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that a lower SES environment and social adversity affect the age at menarche primarily by hastening pubertal onset rather than by shortening tempo.

Patient and clinician factors associated with uptake of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine among adolescent patients of a primary care network.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination rates for adolescents remain relatively low. The purpose of this study is to examine patient and clinician factors associated with HPV vaccination among patients, ages 11-17, of a large community-based primary care network. METHODS: Electronic health records and administrative data from a large primary care network from January 2017 - June 2018 for patients ages 11-17 (n = 10,682) and the 198 primary care clinicians that saw them were analyzed. Mixed effects logistic regression models examined the association of patient and clinician factors with HPV vaccine uptake. RESULTS: Most patients (63.0%) had at least one dose of the HPV vaccine, and 37.7% were up to date. In adjusted analyses, patients who received the tetanus, diphtheria, and pertussis (Tdap) vaccine (OR = 2.8, 95% CI: 2.1-3.9) compared to those who did not receive the vaccine and patients with five or more medical visits (OR = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.6-2.2) had the greatest odds of being up to date with the HPV vaccine series. Compared to White patients, African American/Black (OR = 0.8, 95% CI: 0.6 - 1.0) and Alaskan Native/American Indian (OR = 0.5, 95% CI: 0.3-0.9) patients were less likely to be up to date. Boys were also less likely to be up to date with the HPV vaccine series compared to girls (OR = 0.7, 95% CI: 0.7-0.8). Additionally, patients with family/general practice primary care clinicians were less likely to have their patients up to date than those with pediatricians (OR = 0.8, 95% CI: 0.6 - 1.0). CONCLUSION: HPV vaccine uptake varied by patient characteristics, heath care utilization and primary care clinician specialty. These findings may inform future evidence-based interventions aimed at increasing HPV vaccine uptake among adolescents by targeting patient sub-groups and reducing missed opportunities for vaccination.

Smoking behavior in 18-20 year-olds after tobacco 21 policy implementation in California: A difference-in-differences analysis with other states.

In June 2016, California implemented a Tobacco 21 (T21) policy that increased the minimum sale age of tobacco products from 18 to 21. This study examined the association between California's T21 policy and smoking behavior (ever, current, daily, and nondaily) in 18-20 year-olds using data from the 2012-2019 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (n = 15,863). The annual change in odds of smoking among 18-20 year-olds post-policy (July 2016-December 2019) was compared with the pre-policy period (January 2012 - June 2016) 1) within California and 2) compared with states without a T21 policy. As a sensitivity analysis, 21-23 year-olds in California were used as the referent. Difference-in-difference estimates (D-I-D) were calculated using adjusted logistic regression and compared the post to pre-policy change in trends in California to the referent groups. Before California's T21 policy, there was an 11% annual decrease in the odds of ever smoking among 18-20 year-olds in California and a 6% decrease in the referent states. After the policy, these trends did not change significantly. Results for current smoking were similar. For daily smoking, there was an 8% annual decrease before the policy and a 26% annual decrease after the policy among 18-20 year-olds in California; D-I-D estimates were 0.80 (95% CI: 0.57, 1.14) using referent states as the comparison and 0.62 (95% CI: 0.41, 0.95) using 21-23 year-olds in California as the comparison. There was an association between California's T21 policy and a decrease in daily smoking among 18-20 year-olds, compared with 21-23 year-olds, more than three years post-implementation.

Using Prescription Drug Monitoring Program Data to Assess Likelihood of Incident Long-Term Opioid Use: a Statewide Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Limiting the incidence of opioid-naïve patients who transition to long-term opioid use (i.e., continual use for > 90 days) is a key strategy for reducing opioid-related harms. OBJECTIVE: To identify variables constructed from data routinely collected by prescription drug monitoring programs that are associated with opioid-naïve patients' likelihood of transitioning to long-term use after an initial opioid prescription. DESIGN: Statewide cohort study using prescription drug monitoring program data PARTICIPANTS: All opioid-naïve patients in California (no opioid prescriptions within the prior 2 years) age ≥ 12 years prescribed an initial oral opioid analgesic from 2010 to 2017. METHODS AND MAIN MEASURES: Multiple logistic regression models using variables constructed from prescription drug monitoring program data through the day of each patient's initial opioid prescription, and, alternatively, data available up to 30 and 60 days after the initial prescription were constructed to identify probability of transition to long-term use. Model fit was determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (C-statistic). KEY RESULTS: Among 30,569,125 episodes of patients receiving new opioid prescriptions, 1,809,750 (5.9%) resulted in long-term use. Variables with the highest adjusted odds ratios included concurrent benzodiazepine use, ≥ 2 unique prescribers, and receipt of non-pill, non-liquid formulations. C-statistics for the day 0, day 30, and day 60 models were 0.81, 0.88, and 0.94, respectively. Models assessing opioid dose using the number of pills prescribed had greater discriminative capacity than those using milligram morphine equivalents. CONCLUSIONS: Data routinely collected by prescription drug monitoring programs can be used to identify patients who are likely to develop long-term use. Guidelines for new opioid prescriptions based on pill counts may be simpler and more clinically useful than guidelines based on days' supply or milligram morphine equivalents.