Bayesian transition models for ordinal longitudinal outcomes.

Ordinal longitudinal outcomes are becoming common in clinical research, particularly in the context of COVID-19 clinical trials. These outcomes are information-rich and can increase the statistical efficiency of a study when analyzed in a principled manner. We present Bayesian ordinal transition models as a flexible modeling framework to analyze ordinal longitudinal outcomes. We develop the theory from first principles and provide an application using data from the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial (ACTT-1) with code examples in R. We advocate that researchers use ordinal transition models to analyze ordinal longitudinal outcomes when appropriate alongside standard methods such as time-to-event modeling.

A systematic review of case-control studies of cytokines in blister fluid and skin tissue of patients with Stevens Johnson syndrome and toxic epidermal necrolysis.

Stevens Johnson syndrome (SJS) and toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) are severe cutaneous adverse reactions characterised by keratinocyte apoptosis, necroptosis and epidermal detachment. Several cytokines and cytotoxic proteins have been shown to be elevated in the blood and skin of SJS/TEN sufferers and biologics such as intravenous immune globulin and tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha inhibitors have demonstrated good therapeutic potential. The exact pathogenic model of SJS/TEN however remains elusive. This systematic review aimed to evaluate the case-control studies of cytokines and cytotoxic proteins in the blister fluid and skin of adults with Stevens Johnson syndrome and/or toxic epidermal necrolysis. This review was registered with INPLASY and conducted in accordance with the PRISMA reporting guidelines. Potential bias was assessed using the NIH criteria. Eleven articles describing results from 96 cases and 170 controls were included. Fas, Fas ligand, Interleukin (IL)-8 and B-cell lymphoma (Bcl)-2 were elevated in SJS/TEN blister fluid and skin tissue, compared with healthy controls. IL-2, IL-6, TNF-alpha, tumour necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL), interferon-gamma and matrix metalloproteinase-2 were elevated in SJS/TEN blister fluid compared with fluid sampled from lesional controls. Granulysin, IL-33, TGF-beta-1 and IL-13 were elevated in SJS/TEN skin tissue compared with lesional lichen planus tissue, as was IL-13, IFN-gamma, IL-2 and IL-5, when compared with erythema multiforme tissue. A wide array of cytokines and cytotoxic proteins are present at higher concentrations in the blister fluid and skin tissue of SJS/TEN patients compared with healthy and lesional controls. Our findings suggest that these proteins may be pathogenic, as well as possibly markers for diagnosis, disease severity and course. They may also prove to be useful therapeutic targets. More research is needed.

Improvement in Accuracy and Concordance of American Society of Anesthesiologist's Physical Status (ASA-PS) Scoring Assignment over a 11 Year Time Period Using Patient BMI as a Comorbidity Finding.

Background: Anesthesia providers categorize patients utilizing the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA-PS) classification originally created by the ASA in 1941. There is published variability and discordance among providers when assigning patient ASA scores in part due to the subjectivity of scoring utilizing patient medical conditions, but variability is also found using objective findings like BMI. To date, there are few studies evaluating the accuracy of anesthesia providers' ASA assignment based on objective body mass index (BMI) alone. The aim of this retrospective chart review is to determine improvement in accuracy of anesthesia providers to correctly assign patient ASA scores, based on BMI criteria added to the ASA-PS in October of 2014, utilizing a multifaceted strategy including creation of an active finance committee in the fall of 2015, multiple e-mail communications about the updated definitions and recommendations for ASA-PS scoring in the fall of 2015 and spring of 2016, a department grand rounds presentation in February 2016, placement of laminated copies of the ASA definitions and recommendations in the anesthesia chartrooms, and the development of a tool embedded into our EMR providing a recommendation of ASA-PS based on patient comorbidity findings. Methods: After attaining IRB approval, all eligible patients over the age of 18 who had surgical procedures under general anesthesia at Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN, between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2020, were retrospectively analyzed. A segmented logistic regression model was used to estimate the trends (per-year change in odds) of ASA under classification according to severity of obesity during 3 epochs: preimplementation (2010-2014), implementation (2015), and postimplementation (2016-2020). Results: A total of 16,467 patients of the 200,423 (8.2%) patients with obesity (class 1, 2, and 3) were underscored based on BMI alone. Accuracy of ASA-PS classification, as it pertains to BMI alone, was found to show meaningful improvement year-to-year following the updated ASA-PS guidelines with examples released in October of 2014 (P < 0.001). Most of the improvement occurred in 2015-2017 with relatively little between-year variability in the rate of underscoring from 2017-2020. Conclusion: Despite updated ASA-PS published guidelines, providers may still be unaware of the updated guidelines and inclusion of examples used within the ASA-PS classification system. Accuracy of scoring did improve annually following the release of the updated guidelines with examples as well as department-wide educational activities on the topic. Additional education and awareness should be offered to those responsible for preanesthesia evaluation and assignment of ASA-PS in patients to improve accuracy as it pertains to BMI.

Effect of Montelukast vs Placebo on Time to Sustained Recovery in Outpatients with COVID-19: The ACTIV-6 Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The effect of montelukast in reducing symptom duration among outpatients with mild to moderate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is uncertain. Objective: To assess the effectiveness of montelukast compared with placebo in treating outpatients with mild to moderate COVID-19. Design Setting and Participants: The ACTIV-6 platform randomized clinical trial aims to evaluate the effectiveness of repurposed medications in treating mild to moderate COVID-19. Between January 27, 2023, and June 23, 2023, 1250 participants ≥30 years of age with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and ≥2 acute COVID-19 symptoms for ≤7 days, were included across 104 US sites to evaluate the use of montelukast. Interventions: Participants were randomized to receive montelukast 10 mg once daily or matched placebo for 14 days. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was time to sustained recovery (defined as at least 3 consecutive days without symptoms). Secondary outcomes included time to death; time to hospitalization or death; a composite of hospitalization, urgent care visit, emergency department visit, or death; COVID clinical progression scale; and difference in mean time unwell. Results: Among participants who were randomized and received study drug, the median age was 53 years (IQR 42-62), 60.2% were female, 64.6% identified as Hispanic/Latino, and 56.3% reported ≥2 doses of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Among 628 participants who received montelukast and 622 who received placebo, differences in time to sustained recovery were not observed (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.02; 95% credible interval [CrI] 0.92-1.12; P(efficacy) = 0.63]). Unadjusted median time to sustained recovery was 10 days (95% confidence interval 10-11) in both groups. No deaths were reported and 2 hospitalizations were reported in each group; 36 participants reported healthcare utilization events (a priori defined as death, hospitalization, emergency department/urgent care visit); 18 in the montelukast group compared with 18 in the placebo group (HR 1.01; 95% CrI 0.45-1.84; P(efficacy)=0.48). Five participants experienced serious adverse events (3 with montelukast and 2 with placebo). Conclusions and Relevance: Among outpatients with mild to moderate COVID-19, treatment with montelukast does not reduce duration of COVID-19 symptoms. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov ( NCT04885530 ).

The axial skeleton of Tiktaalik roseae.

The axial columns of the earliest limbed vertebrates show distinct patterns of regionalization as compared to early tetrapodomorphs. Included among their novel features are sacral ribs, which provide linkage between the vertebral column and pelvis, contributing to body support and propulsion by the hindlimb. Data on the axial skeletons of the closest relatives of limbed vertebrates are sparce, with key features of specimens potentially covered by matrix. Therefore, it is unclear in what sequence and under what functional context specializations in the axial skeletons of tetrapods arose. Here, we describe the axial skeleton of the elpistostegalian Tiktaalik roseae and show that transformations to the axial column for head mobility, body support, and pelvic fin buttressing evolved in finned vertebrates prior to the origin of limbs. No atlas-axis complex is observed; however, an independent basioccipital-exoccipital complex suggests increased mobility at the occipital vertebral junction. While the construction of vertebrae in Tiktaalik is similar to early tetrapodomorphs, its ribs possess a specialized sacral domain. Sacral ribs are expanded and ventrally curved, indicating likely attachment to the expanded iliac blade of the pelvis by ligamentous connection. Thus, the origin of novel rib types preceded major alterations to trunk vertebrae, and linkage between pelvic fins and axial column preceded the origin of limbs. These data reveal an unexpected combination of post-cranial skeletal characters, informing hypotheses of body posture and movement in the closest relatives of limbed vertebrates.

A case report and anesthetic implications of situs inversus totalis in video-assisted thoracoscopic pulmonary resection.

Introduction and importance: Reports are limited on video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery for lung malignancy of patients with situs inversus totalis (SIT). Patients with SIT have significant anatomic differences with implications that are important for surgery, anesthesia, and nursing to understand in order to provide care for this patient population. Case presentation: A 64-year-old man with SIT and lung adenocarcinoma needed flexible bronchoscopy and wedge resection of a 9×8 mm adenocarcinoma in the right upper lobe and underwent video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery. Clinical discussion: Preoperative planning, including collaboration with the surgical team, allowed safe monitoring, induction of anesthesia, and airway isolation in this patient allowing them to have successful resection of their pulmonary malignancy. Postoperative care was enhanced by detailed communication and understanding of the patient's anatomy and implications of this condition for post anesthesia care unit nursing care. Conclusion: Patients with rare clinical conditions and backgrounds may require surgical and anesthetic intervention. The authors describe important anesthetic considerations of preoperative evaluation, airway management, cardiac monitoring, and vascular access that should be noted and taken into account for patients with SIT. Proper preparation, planning, and communication allow for patients with SIT to safely undergo surgical procedures.

Arthroscopic assisted brachial plexus catheter placement: an alternative to the percutaneous interscalene approach.

Background: Brachial plexus catheter placement at the interscalene level is beneficial for shoulder analgesia but presents logistical challenges due to the superficial nature of the plexus at this level, increased patient movement in the neck, and therefore higher likelihood for catheter dislodgement. Methods: Patients requiring shoulder arthroscopy and suprascapular nerve decompression were identified. Under arthroscopic guidance, a catheter was placed percutaneously into the scalene medius muscle next to the suprascapular nerve and the upper trunk of the brachial plexus. Patients were followed postoperatively for perioperative analgesic outcomes. Results: Ten patients were identified and consented for intraoperative brachial plexus catheter placement. Patient demographics and surgical details were determined. Postoperative adjunctive pain management and pain scores were variable. Two patients required catheter replacement using ultrasound guidance in the perioperative anesthesia care unit due to poorly controlled pain. There were no incidents of catheter failure due to dislodgement. Discussion: This study presents the first description of arthroscopically-assisted brachial plexus catheter placement. This method may present an alternative to traditional ultrasound guided interscalene catheter placement. Further study is needed to determine if analgesic outcomes, block success, and dislodgement rates are improved with this method.

Esophagectomy Enhanced Recovery After Surgery Initiative Results in Improved Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Esophagectomy for esophageal cancer is a procedure with high morbidity and mortality. This study developed a Multidisciplinary Esophagectomy Enhanced Recovery Initiative (MERIT) pathway and analyzed implementation outcomes in a single institution. METHODS: The MERIT pathway was developed as a practice optimization and quality improvement initiative. Patients were studied from November 1, 2021 to June 20, 2022 and were compared with historical control subjects. The Wilcoxon rank sum test and the Fisher exact test were used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: The study compared 238 historical patients (January 17, 2017 to December 30, 2020) with 58 consecutive MERIT patients. There were no significant differences between patient characteristics in the 2 groups. In the MERIT group, 49 (85%) of the patients were male, and their mean age was 65 years (range, 59-71 years). Most cases were performed for esophageal cancer after neoadjuvant therapy. Length of stay improved by 27% from 11 to 8 days (P = .27). There was a 12% (P = .05) atrial arrhythmia rate reduction, as well as a 9% (P = .01) decrease in postoperative ileus. Overall complications were reduced from 54% to 35% (-19%; P = .01). CONCLUSIONS: This study successfully developed and implemented an enhanced recovery after surgery pathway for esophagectomy. In the first year, study investigators were able to reduce overall complications, specifically atrial arrhythmias, and postoperative ileus.

Higher-Dose Fluvoxamine and Time to Sustained Recovery in Outpatients With COVID-19: The ACTIV-6 Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The effect of higher-dose fluvoxamine in reducing symptom duration among outpatients with mild to moderate COVID-19 remains uncertain. Objective: To assess the effectiveness of fluvoxamine, 100 mg twice daily, compared with placebo, for treating mild to moderate COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: The ACTIV-6 platform randomized clinical trial aims to evaluate repurposed medications for mild to moderate COVID-19. Between August 25, 2022, and January 20, 2023, a total of 1175 participants were enrolled at 103 US sites for evaluating fluvoxamine; participants were 30 years or older with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and at least 2 acute COVID-19 symptoms for 7 days or less. Interventions: Participants were randomized to receive fluvoxamine, 50 mg twice daily on day 1 followed by 100 mg twice daily for 12 additional days (n = 601), or placebo (n = 607). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was time to sustained recovery (defined as at least 3 consecutive days without symptoms). Secondary outcomes included time to death; time to hospitalization or death; a composite of hospitalization, urgent care visit, emergency department visit, or death; COVID-19 clinical progression scale score; and difference in mean time unwell. Follow-up occurred through day 28. Results: Among 1208 participants who were randomized and received the study drug, the median (IQR) age was 50 (40-60) years, 65.8% were women, 45.5% identified as Hispanic/Latino, and 76.8% reported receiving at least 2 doses of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Among 589 participants who received fluvoxamine and 586 who received placebo included in the primary analysis, differences in time to sustained recovery were not observed (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.99 [95% credible interval, 0.89-1.09]; P for efficacy = .40]). Additionally, unadjusted median time to sustained recovery was 10 (95% CI, 10-11) days in both the intervention and placebo groups. No deaths were reported. Thirty-five participants reported health care use events (a priori defined as death, hospitalization, or emergency department/urgent care visit): 14 in the fluvoxamine group compared with 21 in the placebo group (HR, 0.69 [95% credible interval, 0.27-1.21]; P for efficacy = .86) There were 7 serious adverse events in 6 participants (2 with fluvoxamine and 4 with placebo) but no deaths. Conclusions and Relevance: Among outpatients with mild to moderate COVID-19, treatment with fluvoxamine does not reduce duration of COVID-19 symptoms. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04885530.

Inhaled Fluticasone Furoate for Outpatient Treatment of Covid-19.

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of inhaled glucocorticoids in shortening the time to symptom resolution or preventing hospitalization or death among outpatients with mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is unclear. METHODS: We conducted a decentralized, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled platform trial in the United States to assess the use of repurposed medications in outpatients with confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Nonhospitalized adults 30 years of age or older who had at least two symptoms of acute infection that had been present for no more than 7 days before enrollment were randomly assigned to receive inhaled fluticasone furoate at a dose of 200 µg once daily for 14 days or placebo. The primary outcome was the time to sustained recovery, defined as the third of 3 consecutive days without symptoms. Key secondary outcomes included hospitalization or death by day 28 and a composite outcome of the need for an urgent-care or emergency department visit or hospitalization or death through day 28. RESULTS: Of the 1407 enrolled participants who underwent randomization, 715 were assigned to receive inhaled fluticasone furoate and 692 to receive placebo, and 656 and 621, respectively, were included in the analysis. There was no evidence that the use of fluticasone furoate resulted in a shorter time to recovery than placebo (hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% credible interval, 0.91 to 1.12; posterior probability of benefit [defined as a hazard ratio >1], 0.56). A total of 24 participants (3.7%) in the fluticasone furoate group had urgent-care or emergency department visits or were hospitalized, as compared with 13 participants (2.1%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 1.9; 95% credible interval, 0.8 to 3.5). Three participants in each group were hospitalized, and no deaths occurred. Adverse events were uncommon in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with inhaled fluticasone furoate for 14 days did not result in a shorter time to recovery than placebo among outpatients with Covid-19 in the United States. (Funded by the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences and others; ACTIV-6 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04885530.).

Clinical tool for prognostication of discharge outcomes following craniotomy for meningioma.

BACKGROUND: Patients' comorbidities might affect the immediate postoperative morbidity and discharge disposition after surgical resection of intracranial meningioma. OBJECTIVE: To study the impact of comorbidities on outcomes and provide a web-based application to predict time to favorable discharge. METHODS: A retrospective review of the prospectively collected national inpatient sample (NIS) database was conducted for the years 2009-2013. Time to favorable discharge was defined as hospital length of stay (LOS). A favorable discharge was defined as a discharge to home and a non-home discharge destination was defined as an unfavorable discharge. Cox proportional hazards model was built. Full model for time to discharge and separate reduced models were built. RESULTS: Of 10,757 patients who underwent surgery for meningioma, 6554 (60%) had a favorable discharge. The median hospital LOS was 3 days (interquartile range [IQR] 2-5). In the full model, several clinical and socioeconomic factors were associated with a higher likelihood of unfavorable discharge. In the reduced model, 13 modifiable comorbidities were negatively associated with a favorable discharge except for drug abuse and obesity, which are not associated with discharge. Both models accurately predicted time to favorable discharge (c-index:0.68-0.71). CONCLUSION: We developed a web application using robust prognostic model that accurately predicts time to favorable discharge after surgery for meningioma. Using this tool will allow physicians to calculate individual patient discharge probabilities based on their individual comorbidities and provide an opportunity to timely risk stratify and address some of the modifiable factors prior to surgery.

High tissue-sodium associates with systemic inflammation and insulin resistance in obese individuals.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: High sodium intake is associated with obesity and insulin resistance, and high extracellular sodium content may induce systemic inflammation, leading to cardiovascular disease. In this study, we aim to investigate whether high tissue sodium accumulation relates with obesity-related insulin resistance and whether the pro-inflammatory effects of excess tissue sodium accumulation may contribute to such association. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a cross-sectional study of 30 obese and 53 non-obese subjects, we measured insulin sensitivity determined as glucose disposal rate (GDR) using hyperinsulinemic euglycemic clamp, and tissue sodium content using 23Na magnetic resonance imaging. Median age was 48 years, 68% were female and 41% were African American. Median (interquartile range) BMI was 33 (31.5, 36.3) and 25 (23.5, 27.2) kg/m2 in the obese and non-obese individuals, respectively. In obese individuals, insulin sensitivity negatively correlated with muscle (r = -0.45, p = 0.01) and skin sodium (r = -0.46, p = 0.01). In interaction analysis among obese individuals, tissue sodium had a greater effect on insulin sensitivity at higher levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (p-interaction = 0.03 and 0.01 for muscle and skin Na+, respectively) and interleukin-6 (p-interaction = 0.024 and 0.003 for muscle and skin Na+, respectively). In interaction analysis of the entire cohort, the association between muscle sodium and insulin sensitivity was stronger with increasing levels of serum leptin (p-interaction = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Higher muscle and skin sodium are associated with insulin resistance in obese patients. Whether high tissue sodium accumulation has a mechanistic role in the development of obesity-related insulin resistance through systemic inflammation and leptin dysregulation remains to be examined in future studies. CLINICALTRIALS: gov registration: NCT02236520.

The origin of blinking in both mudskippers and tetrapods is linked to life on land.

Blinking, the transient occlusion of the eye by one or more membranes, serves several functions including wetting, protecting, and cleaning the eye. This behavior is seen in nearly all living tetrapods and absent in other extant sarcopterygian lineages suggesting that it might have arisen during the water-to-land transition. Unfortunately, our understanding of the origin of blinking has been limited by a lack of known anatomical correlates of the behavior in the fossil record and a paucity of comparative functional studies. To understand how and why blinking originates, we leverage mudskippers (Oxudercinae), a clade of amphibious fishes that have convergently evolved blinking. Using microcomputed tomography and histology, we analyzed two mudskipper species, Periophthalmus barbarus and Periophthalmodon septemradiatus, and compared them to the fully aquatic round goby, Neogobius melanostomus. Study of gross anatomy and epithelial microstructure shows that mudskippers have not evolved novel musculature or glands to blink. Behavioral analyses show the blinks of mudskippers are functionally convergent with those of tetrapods: P. barbarus blinks more often under high-evaporation conditions to wet the eye, a blink reflex protects the eye from physical insult, and a single blink can fully clean the cornea of particulates. Thus, eye retraction in concert with a passive occlusal membrane can achieve functions associated with life on land. Osteological correlates of eye retraction are present in the earliest limbed vertebrates, suggesting blinking capability. In both mudskippers and tetrapods, therefore, the origin of this multifunctional innovation is likely explained by selection for increasingly terrestrial lifestyles.

Nicotinamide for Skin-Cancer Chemoprevention in Transplant Recipients.

BACKGROUND: Immunosuppressed organ-transplant recipients have an increased incidence of, and mortality from, skin cancer. Nicotinamide (vitamin B3) enhances the repair of ultraviolet (UV) radiation-induced DNA damage, reduces the cutaneous immunosuppressive effects of UV radiation, and reduces the incidence of keratinocyte cancers (including squamous-cell and basal-cell carcinomas) and actinic keratoses among high-risk immunocompetent patients. Whether oral nicotinamide is useful for skin-cancer chemoprevention in organ-transplant recipients is unclear. METHODS: In this phase 3 trial, we randomly assigned, in a 1:1 ratio, organ-transplant recipients who had had at least two keratinocyte cancers in the past 5 years to receive 500 mg of nicotinamide or placebo twice daily for 12 months. Participants were examined for skin lesions by dermatologists at 3-month intervals for 12 months. The primary end point was the number of new keratinocyte cancers during the 12-month intervention period. Secondary end points included the numbers of squamous-cell and basal-cell carcinomas during the 12-month intervention period, the number of actinic keratoses until 6 months after randomization, safety, and quality of life. RESULTS: A total of 158 participants were enrolled, with 79 assigned to the nicotinamide group and 79 to the placebo group. The trial was stopped early owing to poor recruitment. At 12 months, there were 207 new keratinocyte cancers in the nicotinamide group and 210 in the placebo group (rate ratio, 1.0; 95% confidence interval, 0.8 to 1.3; P = 0.96). No significant between-group differences in squamous-cell and basal-cell carcinoma counts, actinic keratosis counts, or quality-of-life scores were observed. Adverse events and changes in blood or urine laboratory variables were similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: In this 12-month, placebo-controlled trial, oral nicotinamide therapy did not lead to lower numbers of keratinocyte cancers or actinic keratoses in immunosuppressed solid-organ transplant recipients. (Funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council; ONTRANS Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry number, ACTRN12617000599370.).

Using a multicultural and multilingual awareness-raising strategy to enhance enrollment of racially underrepresented minoritized communities - the PassITON trial.

Racially and ethnically minoritized populations have been historically excluded and underrepresented in research. This paper will describe best practices in multicultural and multilingual awareness-raising strategies used by the Recruitment Innovation Center to increase minoritized enrollment into clinical trials. The Passive Immunity Trial for Our Nation will be used as a primary example to highlight real-world application of these methods to raise awareness, engage community partners, and recruit diverse study participants.