Machine learning for the prediction of post-ERCP pancreatitis risk: A proof-of-concept study.

BACKGROUND: Predicting Post-Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis (PEP) risk can be determinant in reducing its incidence and managing patients appropriately, however studies conducted thus far have identified single-risk factors with standard statistical approaches and limited accuracy. AIM: To build and evaluate performances of machine learning (ML) models to predict PEP probability and identify relevant features. METHODS: A proof-of-concept study was performed on ML application on an international, multicenter, prospective cohort of ERCP patients. Data were split in training and test set, models used were gradient boosting (GB) and logistic regression (LR). A 10-split random cross-validation (CV) was applied on the training set to optimize parameters to obtain the best mean Area Under Curve (AUC). The model was re-trained on the whole training set with the best parameters and applied on test set. Shapley-Additive-exPlanation (SHAP) approach was applied to break down the model and clarify features impact. RESULTS: One thousand one hundred and fifty patients were included, 6.1% developed PEP. GB model outperformed LR with AUC in CV of 0.7 vs 0.585 (p-value=0.012). GB AUC in test was 0.671. Most relevant features for PEP prediction were: bilirubin, age, body mass index, procedure time, previous sphincterotomy, alcohol units/day, cannulation attempts, gender, gallstones, use of Ringer's solution and periprocedural NSAIDs. CONCLUSION: In PEP prediction, GB significantly outperformed LR model and identified new clinical features relevant for the risk, most being pre-procedural.

Contrast-enhanced ultrasound for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in adults with chronic liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma occurs mostly in people with chronic liver disease. Worldwide, it ranks sixth in terms of incidence of cancer, and fourth in terms of cancer-related deaths. Contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) is used as an add-on test to confirm the presence of focal liver lesions suspected as hepatocellular carcinoma after prior diagnostic tests such as abdominal ultrasound or measurement of alpha-foetoprotein, or both. According to guidelines, a single contrast-enhanced imaging investigation, with either computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), may show the typical hepatocellular carcinoma hallmarks in people with cirrhosis, which will be sufficient to diagnose hepatocellular carcinoma. However, a significant number of hepatocellular carcinomas show atypical imaging features, and therefore, are missed at imaging. Dynamic CEUS images are obtained similarly to CT and MRI images. CEUS differentiates between arterial and portal venous phases, in which sonographic hepatocellular carcinoma hallmarks, such as arterial hyperenhancement and subsequent washout appearance, are investigated. The advantages of CEUS over CT and MRI include real-time imaging, use of contrast agents that do not contain iodine and are not nephrotoxic, and quick image acquisition. Despite the advantages, the use of CEUS in the diagnostic algorithm for HCC remains controversial, with disagreement on relevant guidelines. There is no clear evidence of the benefit of surveillance programmes in terms of overall survival as the conflicting results can be a consequence of an inaccurate detection, ineffective treatment, or both. Therefore, assessing the diagnostic accuracy of CEUS may clarify whether the absence of benefit could be related to underdiagnosis. Furthermore, an assessment of the accuracy of CEUS for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma is needed for either diagnosing hepatocellular carcinoma or ruling it out in people with chronic liver disease who are not included in surveillance programmes. OBJECTIVES: 1. To assess the diagnostic accuracy of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma of any size and at any stage in adults with chronic liver disease, in a surveillance programme or in a clinical setting. 2. To assess the diagnostic accuracy of CEUS for the diagnosis of resectable hepatocellular carcinoma in people with chronic liver disease and identify potential sources of heterogeneity in the results. SEARCH METHODS: We used standard, extensive Cochrane search methods. The last date of search was 5 November 2021. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included studies assessing the diagnostic accuracy of CEUS for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in adults with chronic liver disease, with cross-sectional designs, using one of the acceptable reference standards, such as pathology of the explanted liver, and histology of resected or biopsied focal liver lesion with at least a six-month follow-up. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard Cochrane methods to screen studies, extract data, and assess the risk of bias and applicability concerns, using the QUADAS-2 checklist. We used the bivariate model and provided estimates of summary sensitivity and specificity. We assessed the certainty of the evidence using GRADE. We presented uncertainty-of-the-accuracy estimates using 95% confidence intervals (CIs). MAIN RESULTS: We included 23 studies with 6546 participants. Studies were published between 2001 and 2021. We judged all 23 studies at high-risk of bias in at least one domain, and 13/23 studies at high concern for applicability. Most studies used different reference standards to exclude the presence of the target condition. The time interval between the index test and the reference standard was rarely defined. We also had major concerns on their applicability due to the characteristics of the participants. - CEUS for hepatocellular carcinoma of any size and stage: sensitivity 77.8% (95% CI 69.4% to 84.4%) and specificity 93.8% (95% CI 89.1% to 96.6%) (23 studies, 6546 participants; very low-certainty evidence). - CEUS for resectable hepatocellular carcinoma: sensitivity 77.5% (95% CI 62.9% to 87.6%) and specificity 92.7% (95% CI 86.8% to 96.1%) (13 studies, 1257 participants; low-certainty evidence). The observed heterogeneity in the results remains unexplained. The sensitivity analyses, including only studies with clearly prespecified positivity criteria and only studies in which the reference standard results were interpreted with no knowledge of the results about the index test, showed no differences in the results. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We found that by using CEUS, as an add-on test following abdominal ultrasound, to diagnose hepatocellular carcinoma of any size and stage, 22% of people with hepatocellular carcinoma would be missed, and 6% of people without hepatocellular carcinoma would unnecessarily undergo further testing or inappropriate treatment. As to resectable hepatocellular carcinoma, we found that 23% of people with resectable hepatocellular carcinoma would incorrectly be unresected, while 8% of people without hepatocellular carcinoma would undergo further inappropriate testing or treatment. The uncertainty resulting from the high risk of bias of the included studies, heterogeneity, and imprecision of the results and concerns on their applicability limit our ability to draw confident conclusions.

Magnetic resonance imaging for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in adults with chronic liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma occurs mostly in people with chronic liver disease and ranks sixth in terms of global incidence of cancer, and third in terms of cancer deaths. In clinical practice, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is used as a second-line diagnostic imaging modality to confirm the presence of focal liver lesions suspected as hepatocellular carcinoma on prior diagnostic test such as abdominal ultrasound or alpha-fetoprotein, or both, either in surveillance programmes or in clinical settings. According to current guidelines, a single contrast-enhanced imaging study (computed tomography (CT) or MRI) showing typical hallmarks of hepatocellular carcinoma in people with cirrhosis is considered valid to diagnose hepatocellular carcinoma. The detection of hepatocellular carcinoma amenable to surgical resection could improve the prognosis. However, a significant number of hepatocellular carcinomas do not show typical hallmarks on imaging modalities, and hepatocellular carcinoma may, therefore, be missed. There is no clear evidence of the benefit of surveillance programmes in terms of overall survival: the conflicting results can be a consequence of inaccurate detection, ineffective treatment, or both. Assessing the diagnostic accuracy of MRI may clarify whether the absence of benefit could be related to underdiagnosis. Furthermore, an assessment of the accuracy of MRI in people with chronic liver disease who are not included in surveillance programmes is needed for either ruling out or diagnosing hepatocellular carcinoma. OBJECTIVES: Primary: to assess the diagnostic accuracy of MRI for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma of any size and at any stage in adults with chronic liver disease. Secondary: to assess the diagnostic accuracy of MRI for the diagnosis of resectable hepatocellular carcinoma in adults with chronic liver disease, and to identify potential sources of heterogeneity in the results. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, the Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Diagnostic Test of Accuracy Studies Register, the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, Embase, and three other databases to 9 November 2021. We manually searched articles retrieved, contacted experts, handsearched abstract books from meetings held during the last 10 years, and searched for literature in OpenGrey (9 November 2021). Further information was requested by e-mails, but no additional information was provided. No data was obtained through correspondence with investigators. We applied no language or document-type restrictions. SELECTION CRITERIA: Studies assessing the diagnostic accuracy of MRI for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in adults with chronic liver disease, with cross-sectional designs, using one of the acceptable reference standards, such as pathology of the explanted liver and histology of resected or biopsied focal liver lesion with at least a six-month follow-up. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: At least two review authors independently screened studies, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias and applicability concerns, using the QUADAS-2 checklist. We presented the results of sensitivity and specificity, using paired forest plots, and we tabulated the results. We used a hierarchical meta-analysis model where appropriate. We presented uncertainty of the accuracy estimates using 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We double-checked all data extractions and analyses. MAIN RESULTS: We included 34 studies, with 4841 participants. We judged all studies to be at high risk of bias in at least one domain because most studies used different reference standards, often inappropriate to exclude the presence of the target condition, and the time interval between the index test and the reference standard was rarely defined. Regarding applicability, we judged 15% (5/34) of studies to be at low concern and 85% (29/34) of studies to be at high concern mostly owing to characteristics of the participants, most of whom were on waiting lists for orthotopic liver transplantation, and due to pathology of the explanted liver being the only reference standard. MRI for hepatocellular carcinoma of any size and stage: sensitivity 84.4% (95% CI 80.1% to 87.9%) and specificity 93.8% (95% CI 90.1% to 96.1%) (34 studies, 4841 participants; low-certainty evidence). MRI for resectable hepatocellular carcinoma: sensitivity 84.3% (95% CI 77.6% to 89.3%) and specificity 92.9% (95% CI 88.3% to 95.9%) (16 studies, 2150 participants; low-certainty evidence). The observed heterogeneity in the results remains mostly unexplained. The sensitivity analyses, which included only studies with clearly prespecified positivity criteria and only studies in which the reference standard results were interpreted without knowledge of the results of the index test, showed no variation in the results. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We found that using MRI as a second-line imaging modality to diagnose hepatocellular carcinoma of any size and stage, 16% of people with hepatocellular carcinoma would be missed, and 6% of people without hepatocellular carcinoma would be unnecessarily treated. For resectable hepatocellular carcinoma, we found that 16% of people with resectable hepatocellular carcinoma would improperly not be resected, while 7% of people without hepatocellular carcinoma would undergo inappropriate surgery. The uncertainty resulting from the high risk of bias in the included studies and concerns regarding their applicability limit our ability to confidently draw conclusions based on our results.

Probe-Based Confocal Laser Endomicroscopy and Barrett's Esophagus: Just a Scientific Toy or Significant Improvement in Diagnosis?

BACKGROUND: Barrett's esophagus (BE) requires surveillance to identify potential neoplasia at an early stage. The standard surveillance regimen includes random 4-quadrant biopsies by Seattle protocol. Main limitations of random biopsies are high risk of sampling error, difficulties in histology interpretation, common inadequate classification of pathohistological changes, increased risk of bleeding, and time necessary to acquire the final diagnosis. Probe-based confocal laser endomicroscopy (pCLE) has emerged as a potential tool with an aim to overcome these obvious limitations. SUMMARY: pCLE represents a real-time microscopic imaging method that offers evaluation of epithelial and subepithelial structures with 1,000-fold magnification. In theory, pCLE has potential to eliminate the need for biopsy in BE patients. The main advantages would be real-time diagnosis and decision-making, greater diagnostic accuracy, and evaluation of larger area compared to random biopsies. Clinical pCLE studies in the esophagus show high diagnostic accuracy, and its high negative predictive value offers high reliability and confidence to exclude dysplastic and neoplastic lesions. However, it still cannot replace histopathology due to lower positive predictive value and sensitivity. Key Messages: Despite promising results, its role in routine use in patients with BE remains questionable primarily due to lack of well-organized double-blind randomized trials.

The characteristics and prognostic role of acute abdominal on-admission pain in acute pancreatitis: A prospective cohort analysis of 1432 cases.

INTRODUCTION: Pain is the most common symptom in acute pancreatitis (AP) and is among the diagnostic criteria. Therefore, we aimed to characterize acute abdominal pain in AP. METHODS: The Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group prospectively collected multicentre clinical data on 1435 adult AP patients between 2012 and 2017. Pain was characterized by its intensity (mild or intense), duration prior to admission (hours), localization (nine regions of the abdomen) and type (sharp, dull or cramping). RESULTS: 97.3% of patients (n = 1394) had pain on admission. Of the initial population with acute abdominal pain, 727 patients answered questions about pain intensity, 1148 about pain type, 1134 about pain localization and 1202 about pain duration. Pain was mostly intense (70%, n = 511/727), characterized by cramping (61%, n = 705/1148), mostly starting less than 24 h prior to admission (56.7%, n = 682/1202). Interestingly, 50.9% of the patients (n = 577/1134) had atypical pain, which means pain other than epigastric or belt-like upper abdominal pain. We observed a higher proportion of peripancreatic fluid collection (19.5% vs. 11.0%; p = 0.009) and oedematous pancreas (8.4% vs. 3.1%; p = 0.016) with intense pain. Sharp pain was associated with AP severity (OR = 2.481 95% CI: 1.550-3.969) and increased mortality (OR = 2.263, 95% CI: 1.199-4.059) compared to other types. Longstanding pain (>72 h) on admission was not associated with outcomes. Pain characteristics showed little association with the patient's baseline characteristics. CONCLUSION: A comprehensive patient interview should include questions about pain characteristics, including pain type. Patients with sharp and intense pain might need special monitoring and tailored pain management. SIGNIFICANCE: Acute abdominal pain is the leading presenting symptom in acute pancreatitis; however, we currently lack specific guidelines for pain assessment and management. In our cohort analysis, intense and sharp pain on admission was associated with higher odds for severe AP and several systemic and local complications. Therefore, a comprehensive patient interview should include questions about pain characteristics and patients with intense and sharp pain might need closer monitoring.

Computed tomography for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in adults with chronic liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma occurs mostly in people with chronic liver disease and ranks sixth in terms of global incidence of cancer, and fourth in terms of cancer deaths. In clinical practice, computed tomography (CT) is used as a second-line diagnostic imaging modality to confirm the presence of focal liver lesions suspected as hepatocellular carcinoma on prior diagnostic test such as abdominal ultrasound or alpha-foetoprotein, or both, either in surveillance programmes or in clinical settings. According to current guidelines, a single contrast-enhanced imaging study CT or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) showing typical hallmarks of hepatocellular carcinoma in people with cirrhosis is valid to diagnose hepatocellular carcinoma. However, a significant number of hepatocellular carcinomas do not show typical hallmarks on imaging modalities, and hepatocellular carcinoma is, therefore, missed. There is no clear evidence of the benefit of surveillance programmes in terms of overall survival: the conflicting results can be a consequence of inaccurate detection, ineffective treatment, or both. Assessing the diagnostic accuracy of CT may clarify whether the absence of benefit could be related to underdiagnosis. Furthermore, an assessment of the accuracy of CT in people with chronic liver disease, who are not included in surveillance programmes is needed for either ruling out or diagnosing hepatocellular carcinoma. OBJECTIVES: Primary: to assess the diagnostic accuracy of multidetector, multiphasic contrast-enhanced CT for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma of any size and at any stage in adults with chronic liver disease, either in a surveillance programme or in a clinical setting. Secondary: to assess the diagnostic accuracy of CT for the diagnosis of resectable hepatocellular carcinoma in adults with chronic liver disease. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Trials Register, Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Diagnostic-Test-Accuracy Studies Register, the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, Embase, LILACS, Science Citation Index Expanded, and Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science until 4 May 2021. We applied no language or document-type restrictions. SELECTION CRITERIA: Studies assessing the diagnostic accuracy of CT for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in adults with chronic liver disease, with cross-sectional designs, using one of the acceptable reference standards, such as pathology of the explanted liver and histology of resected or biopsied focal liver lesion with at least a six-month follow-up. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: At least two review authors independently screened studies, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias and applicability concerns, using the QUADAS-2 checklist. We presented the results of sensitivity and specificity, using paired forest plots, and tabulated the results. We used a hierarchical meta-analysis model where appropriate. We presented uncertainty of the accuracy estimates using 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We double-checked all data extractions and analyses. MAIN RESULTS: We included 21 studies, with a total of 3101 participants. We judged all studies to be at high risk of bias in at least one domain because most studies used different reference standards, often inappropriate to exclude the presence of the target condition, and the time-interval between the index test and the reference standard was rarely defined. Regarding applicability in the patient selection domain, we judged 14% (3/21) of studies to be at low concern and 86% (18/21) of studies to be at high concern owing to characteristics of the participants who were on waiting lists for orthotopic liver transplantation. CT for hepatocellular carcinoma of any size and stage: sensitivity 77.5% (95% CI 70.9% to 82.9%) and specificity 91.3% (95% CI 86.5% to 94.5%) (21 studies, 3101 participants; low-certainty evidence). CT for resectable hepatocellular carcinoma: sensitivity 71.4% (95% CI 60.3% to 80.4%) and specificity 92.0% (95% CI 86.3% to 95.5%) (10 studies, 1854 participants; low-certainty evidence). In the three studies at low concern for applicability (861 participants), we found sensitivity 76.9% (95% CI 50.8% to 91.5%) and specificity 89.2% (95% CI 57.0% to 98.1%). The observed heterogeneity in the results remains mostly unexplained. The sensitivity analyses, which included only studies with clearly prespecified positivity criteria and only studies in which the reference standard results were interpreted without knowledge of the results of the index test, showed no variation in the results. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: In the clinical pathway for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in adults with chronic liver disease, CT has roles as a confirmatory test for hepatocellular carcinoma lesions, and for staging assessment. We found that using CT in detecting hepatocellular carcinoma of any size and stage, 22.5% of people with hepatocellular carcinoma would be missed, and 8.7% of people without hepatocellular carcinoma would be unnecessarily treated. For resectable hepatocellular carcinoma, we found that 28.6% of people with resectable hepatocellular carcinoma would improperly not be resected, while 8% of people without hepatocellular carcinoma would undergo inappropriate surgery. The uncertainty resulting from the high risk of bias in the included studies and concerns regarding their applicability limit our ability to confidently draw conclusions based on our results.

Glucose levels show independent and dose-dependent association with worsening acute pancreatitis outcomes: Post-hoc analysis of a prospective, international cohort of 2250 acute pancreatitis cases.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic risk factors, such as obesity, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia are independent risk factors for the development of various complications in acute pancreatitis (AP). Hypertriglyceridemia dose-dependently elicits pancreatotoxicity and worsens the outcomes of AP. The role of hyperglycemia, as a toxic metabolic factor in the clinical course of AP, has not been examined yet. METHODS: We analyzed a prospective, international cohort of 2250 AP patients, examining associations between (1) glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), (2) on-admission glucose, (3) peak in-hospital glucose and clinically important outcomes (mortality, severity, complications, length of hospitalization (LOH), maximal C-reactive protein (CRP)). We conducted a binary logistic regression accounting for age, gender, etiology, diabetes, and our examined variables. Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC) was applied to detect the diagnostic accuracy of the three variables. RESULTS: Both on-admission and peak serum glucose are independently associated with AP severity and mortality, accounting for age, gender, known diabetes and AP etiology. They show a dose-dependent association with severity (p < 0.001 in both), mortality (p < 0.001), LOH (p < 0.001), maximal CRP (p < 0.001), systemic (p < 0.001) and local complications (p < 0.001). Patients with peak glucose >7 mmol/l had a 15 times higher odds for severe AP and a five times higher odds for mortality. We found a trend of increasing HbA1c with increasing LOH (p < 0.001), severity and local complications. CONCLUSIONS: On-admission and peak in-hospital glucose are independently and dose-dependently associated with increasing AP severity and mortality. In-hospital laboratory control of glucose and adequate treatment of hyperglycemia are crucial in the management of AP.

Abdominal ultrasound and alpha-foetoprotein for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in adults with chronic liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurs mostly in people with chronic liver disease and ranks sixth in terms of global instances of cancer, and fourth in terms of cancer deaths for men. Despite that abdominal ultrasound (US) is used as an initial test to exclude the presence of focal liver lesions and serum alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) measurement may raise suspicion of HCC occurrence, further testing to confirm diagnosis as well as staging of HCC is required. Current guidelines recommend surveillance programme using US, with or without AFP, to detect HCC in high-risk populations despite the lack of clear benefits on overall survival. Assessing the diagnostic accuracy of US and AFP may clarify whether the absence of benefit in surveillance programmes could be related to under-diagnosis. Therefore, assessment of the accuracy of these two tests for diagnosing HCC in people with chronic liver disease, not included in surveillance programmes, is needed. OBJECTIVES: Primary: the diagnostic accuracy of US and AFP, alone or in combination, for the diagnosis of HCC of any size and at any stage in adults with chronic liver disease, either in a surveillance programme or in a clinical setting. Secondary: to assess the diagnostic accuracy of abdominal US and AFP, alone or in combination, for the diagnosis of resectable HCC; to compare the diagnostic accuracy of the individual tests versus the combination of both tests; to investigate sources of heterogeneity in the results. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, the Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Diagnostic-Test-Accuracy Studies Register, Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, Embase, LILACS, Science Citation Index Expanded, until 5 June 2020. We applied no language or document-type restrictions. SELECTION CRITERIA: Studies assessing the diagnostic accuracy of US and AFP, independently or in combination, for the diagnosis of HCC in adults with chronic liver disease, with cross-sectional and case-control designs, using one of the acceptable reference standards, such as pathology of the explanted liver, histology of resected or biopsied focal liver lesion, or typical characteristics on computed tomography, or magnetic resonance imaging, all with a six-months follow-up. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We independently screened studies, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias and applicability concerns, using the QUADAS-2 checklist. We presented the results of sensitivity and specificity, using paired forest-plots, and tabulated the results. We used a hierarchical meta-analysis model where appropriate. We presented uncertainty of the accuracy estimates using 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We double-checked all data extractions and analyses. MAIN RESULTS: We included 373 studies. The index-test was AFP (326 studies, 144,570 participants); US (39 studies, 18,792 participants); and a combination of AFP and US (eight studies, 5454 participants). We judged at high-risk of bias all but one study. Most studies used different reference standards, often inappropriate to exclude the presence of the target condition, and the time-interval between the index test and the reference standard was rarely defined. Most studies with AFP had a case-control design. We also had major concerns for the applicability due to the characteristics of the participants. As the primary studies with AFP used different cut-offs, we performed a meta-analysis using the hierarchical-summary-receiver-operating-characteristic model, then we carried out two meta-analyses including only studies reporting the most used cut-offs: around 20 ng/mL or 200 ng/mL. AFP cut-off 20 ng/mL: for HCC (147 studies) sensitivity 60% (95% CI 58% to 62%), specificity 84% (95% CI 82% to 86%); for resectable HCC (six studies) sensitivity 65% (95% CI 62% to 68%), specificity 80% (95% CI 59% to 91%). AFP cut-off 200 ng/mL: for HCC (56 studies) sensitivity 36% (95% CI 31% to 41%), specificity 99% (95% CI 98% to 99%); for resectable HCC (two studies) one with sensitivity 4% (95% CI 0% to 19%), specificity 100% (95% CI 96% to 100%), and one with sensitivity 8% (95% CI 3% to 18%), specificity 100% (95% CI 97% to 100%). US: for HCC (39 studies) sensitivity 72% (95% CI 63% to 79%), specificity 94% (95% CI 91% to 96%); for resectable HCC (seven studies) sensitivity 53% (95% CI 38% to 67%), specificity 96% (95% CI 94% to 97%). Combination of AFP (cut-off of 20 ng/mL) and US: for HCC (six studies) sensitivity 96% (95% CI 88% to 98%), specificity 85% (95% CI 73% to 93%); for resectable HCC (two studies) one with sensitivity 89% (95% CI 73% to 97%), specificity of 83% (95% CI 76% to 88%), and one with sensitivity 79% (95% CI 54% to 94%), specificity 87% (95% CI 79% to 94%). The observed heterogeneity in the results remains mostly unexplained, and only in part referable to different cut-offs or settings (surveillance programme compared to clinical series). The sensitivity analyses, excluding studies published as abstracts, or with case-control design, showed no variation in the results. We compared the accuracy obtained from studies with AFP (cut-off around 20 ng/mL) and US: a direct comparison in 11 studies (6674 participants) showed a higher sensitivity of US (81%, 95% CI 66% to 90%) versus AFP (64%, 95% CI 56% to 71%) with similar specificity: US 92% (95% CI 83% to 97%) versus AFP 89% (95% CI 79% to 94%). A direct comparison of six studies (5044 participants) showed a higher sensitivity (96%, 95% CI 88% to 98%) of the combination of AFP and US versus US (76%, 95% CI 56% to 89%) with similar specificity: AFP and US 85% (95% CI 73% to 92%) versus US 93% (95% CI 80% to 98%). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: In the clinical pathway for the diagnosis of HCC in adults, AFP and US, singularly or in combination, have the role of triage-tests. We found that using AFP, with 20 ng/mL as a cut-off, about 40% of HCC occurrences would be missed, and with US alone, more than a quarter. The combination of the two tests showed the highest sensitivity and less than 5% of HCC occurrences would be missed with about 15% of false-positive results. The uncertainty resulting from the poor study quality and the heterogeneity of included studies limit our ability to confidently draw conclusions based on our results.

Small intestinal bacterial overgrowth and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease diagnosed by transient elastography and liver biopsy.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine if there was a higher incidence of small intestinal bacterial overgrowth (SIBO) in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) than in patients without NAFLD. Moreover, we assessed whether patients with significant fibrosis (SF) had a higher incidence of SIBO compared with patients with non-significant or no liver fibrosis. METHODS: NAFLD was diagnosed in 117 patients by using Fibroscan with a controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) as well as liver biopsy (LB). SIBO was defined by esophagogastroduodenoscopy with an aspiration of the descending duodenum. RESULTS: Patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and those with SF on LB had a significantly higher incidence of SIBO than patients without NASH and those without SF, respectively (P < .05). According to histological characteristics, there was a higher proportion of patients in the SIBO group with higher steatosis and fibrosis grade, lobular and portal inflammation, and ballooning grade (P < .001). In multivariate analysis, significant predictors associated with SF and NASH were type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and SIBO. Moreover, in multivariate analysis, significant predictors that were independently associated with SIBO were T2DM, fibrosis stage and ballooning grade (OR 8.80 (2.07-37.37), 2.50 (1.16-5.37) and 27.6 (6.41-119), respectively). The most commonly isolated were gram-negative bacteria, predominantly Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae. CONCLUSION: In this relatively large population of patients, we used a gold standard for both SIBO (quantitative culture of duodenum's descending part aspirate) and NAFLD (LB), and we demonstrated that NASH patients and those with SF had a higher incidence of SIBO. Moreover, significant predictors independently associated with SIBO were T2DM, fibrosis stage and ballooning grade. Although TE is a well-investigated method for steatosis and fibrosis detection, in our study, independent predictors of SIBO were histological characteristics of NAFLD, while elastographic parameters did not reach statistical significance.

OPPORTUNISTIC SCREENING FOR COLORECTAL CANCER IN HIGH-RISK PATIENTS IN FAMILY MEDICINE PRACTICES IN THE REPUBLIC OF CROATIA.

Colorectal cancer is a malignant neoplasm which has an increasing incidence and represents a global public health problem. The majority of patients are diagnosed after the age of 50, and the risk of developing it over lifetime is 5%. Development of preventive, diagnostic and treatment methods has resulted in a significant reduction in mortality and other negative clinical outcomes. Precisely because of the efficient method of prevention and early detection of this disease, numerous countries, including Croatia, have organized national colorectal cancer screening and monitoring programs. However, these programs are primarily organized for the population with the usual, i.e. average risk of developing colorectal cancer. High-risk groups include persons with endoscopically detected and removed colon polyps, persons surgically treated for colon cancer, persons with a positive family history of colorectal cancer, persons with inflammatory bowel diseases, individuals and families with hereditary disorders or genetic mutations that increase the risk of this disease several fold, persons with acromegaly, and patients who have undergone ureterosigmoidostomy. Recommendations for the detection and monitoring of high-risk groups are often not defined clearly, and some of the existing ones are based mostly on scarce scientific evidence. It is commonly accepted that screening in high-risk groups should start at an earlier age, with shorter intervals between follow-ups. The basic diagnostic method for screening and monitoring in these patient groups is endoscopic monitoring, or colonoscopy. The aim of this review paper is to present the characteristics of the abovementioned risk groups and provide clear screening recommendations.

Relationship between coffee consumption, sleep duration and smoking status with elastographic parameters of liver steatosis and fibrosis; controlled attenuation parameter and liver stiffness measurements.

AIM: our aim was to explore the association between life habits and the controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) and liver stiffness measurements (LSM) as the surrogate markers of liver steatosis and fibrosis in a large cohort of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients. METHODS: In this prospective, cross-sectional study we had analysed 1998 patients with diagnosed NAFLD. Sleeping duration was categorised in three groups: short (S) (<6 hours), moderate (M) (6-8 hours) and long (L) (>8 hours) sleep duration. Coffee drinking was categorized into no (0), moderate (1-2) and frequent (≥3) consumption (in cups/day). Smoking was categorised as yes versus no. RESULTS: Frequent coffee consumers had the lowest prevalence of obesity, hypertension, dyslipidaemia and diabetes. Furthermore, coffee non-consumers had highest values of hepatic enzymes, CAP and LSM. Moderate sleep duration was associated with lower values of CAP and LSM. Coffee consumption was associated with lower CAP in all the multivariate models (CAP unadjusted and model 1, 2 and 3), with largest effect in most frequent coffee consumers (≥3, model 3). Also, most frequent coffee consumers were associated with lower LSM in unadjusted model, model 1 and 2, while this was not the case for model 3 and those who consumed 1-2 cups of coffee per day. Reduced sleeping was confirmed as risk factor for elevated CAP in most of the models (unadjusted and model 1 and 2). Also, negative association of LSM was also confirmed in unadjusted model and model 2. Patients which slept 6-8 hours per day were mostly associated with lower CAP and LSM. Smoking status was not associated with CAP or LSM values. CONCLUSION: Coffee consumption has beneficial effect on CAP and LSM and this effect is dose dependent since and independent of a variety of relevant confounders. We have shown that moderate sleep duration has also beneficial effect on CAP and LSM.

Chronic use of statins and acetylsalicylic acid and incidence of post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography acute pancreatitis: A multicenter, prospective, cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) acute pancreatitis (PEP) is a frequent complication of this endoscopic procedure. Chronic statin intake has been linked to lower incidence and severity of acute pancreatitis (AP). Periprocedural rectal administration of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs is protective against PEP, but the role of chronic acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) treatment is unclear. We aimed to investigate whether statins and chronic ASA intake are associated with lower risk of PEP. METHODS: An international, multicenter, prospective cohort study. Consecutive patients undergoing ERCP in seven European centers were included. Patients were followed-up to detect those with PEP. Multivariate analysis by means of binary logistic regression was performed, and adjusted odds ratios (aORs) were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 1150 patients were included, and 70 (6.1%) patients developed PEP. Among statins users, 8.1% developed PEP vs. 5.4% among non-users (P = 0.09). Multivariate analysis showed no association between statin use and PEP incidence (aOR 1.68 (95% CI 0.94-2.99, P = 0.08)). Statin use had no effect on severity of PEP, being mild in 92.0% of statin users vs. 82.2% in non-statin users (P = 0.31). Chronic ASA use was not associated with PEP either (aOR 1.02 (95% CI 0.49-2.13), P = 0.96). Abuse of alcohol and previous endoscopic biliary sphincterotomy were protective factors against PEP, while >1 pancreatic guidewire passage, normal bilirubin values, and duration of the procedure >20 minutes, were risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: The use of statins or ASA is not associated with a lower risk or a milder course of PEP.

Accuracy of Controlled Attenuation Parameter and Liver Stiffness Measurement in Patients with Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of the controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) and liver stiffness measurements (LSM) measured with either an M or XL probe against liver biopsy (LB) in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). This study was a cross-sectional prospective study that included 179 NAFLD patients. With a cutoff value for CAP ≥345, we can exclude significant steatosis in 87% (79.4%-92.5%) of our population. With respect to the LSM, the highest accuracy was obtained for F ≥ F3 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] = 0.98) and F = F4 (AUROC = 0.98). In a multivariable linear regression model, significant predictors influencing LSM were fibrosis stage (ß = 2.6, p < 0.001) as a positive predictor and lobular inflammation (ß = -0.68, p = 0.04) as a negative predictor, without significant influence after adjustment for CAP and probe type. We found that CAP is a satisfactory method for excluding advanced steatosis, while LSM is a good non-invasive marker for the exclusion of fibrosis.

Inflammatory Fibroid Polyp of the Small Intestine: A Case Report and Systematic Literature Review.

AIM: Starting from a case presentation, this review aims to present literature data on inflammatory fibroid polyps (IFPs) of the small intestine. METHODS: Case report and systematic review. A comprehensive systematic review of English literature using PubMed was conducted, based on Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The used key words were: "inflammatory fibroid polyp" or "Vanek", including only cases with IFPs localized of the small intestine, published from 1976 to 2019. RESULTS: We present a case of a 38-year old patient with intestinal IFP presenting with acute abdomen due to intussusception diagnosed with ultrasound (US) based on a target sign and visible solid tumor in the small intestine leading to prompt surgical treatment. A diagnosis of IFP was made based on the pathohistological findings. Moreover, a systematic review of small intestine IFPs was conducted which is, to our knowledge, the first comprehensive systematic literature review on this topic. The analysis included 53 case reports or case series concerning 77 cases of small bowel IFPs. The patients were aged from 4 to 75 years (average 45.2), with a female predominance (59.7%). The most common localization was the ileum in 77.9% cases, followed by the jejunum (13%) and the duodenum (6.5%). The most common clinical presentation was abdominal pain due to intussusception (63.6%). Regarding diagnostic methods, computed tomography (CT) was frequently used as primary diagnostic method (26%) followed by exploratory laparotomy (16.9%), endoscopy (7.8%) and US (6.5%). Combination of US and CT contributed to the diagnosis in 9.1% of cases. The majority of cases were treated surgically (92.21%), while only a minority benefited of minimally invasive techniques such as endoscopy. CONCLUSIONS: Small bowel IFPs, ones of the least common benign tumors, are characterized by variable clinical signs and symptoms and can potentially lead to serious consequences for the patient.

Vitamin D for treatment of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease detected by transient elastography: A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

AIM: To evaluate the effects of vitamin D on transient elastography (TE, FibroScan) indices of liver steatosis (controlled attenuation parameter [CAP]) and fibrosis (liver stiffness measurement [LSM]) in adults with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this randomized (2:1), double-blind, single-centre, 12-month trial, patients with NAFLD were treated with vitamin D (1000 IU/day) (n = 201) or a matching placebo (n = 110). Two co-primary outcomes were changes in CAP and LSM after 360 days of treatment versus baseline. Two main secondary outcomes were CAP/LSM changes after 180 days of treatment. RESULTS: Both CAP and LSM gradually decreased in vitamin D-treated patients and slightly increased in the placebo arm. Vitamin D was superior to placebo for both primary outcomes (mean differences in CAP and LSM changes (-49.5 dB/m [95% CI -59.5 to -39.4] and -0.72 kPa [95% CI -1.43 to 0.00], respectively) and both secondary outcomes (-22.1 dB/m [-32.1 to -12.1] and -0.89 kPa [-1.61 to -0.17], respectively). Of a number of exploratory outcomes (change at 12 months vs. baseline), vitamin D reduced serum uric acid (-17.9 µmol/L [-30.6 to -5.2]), gamma-glutamyltransferase (-8.9 IU/L [-15.5 to -2.3)] and fasting serum insulin levels (-5.1 pmol/L [-9.3 to -0.8]) as well as the homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance index (-1.6 [-3.1 to -0.2]) (false discovery rate [5%]-adjusted P-values between .0572 and .0952). CONCLUSION: Low-medium dose supplementation of vitamin D (1000 IU/day) over 12 months reduces TE indices of liver steatosis (CAP) and fibrosis (LSM) in NAFLD patients.

Endoscopic Treatment of Obesity: From Past to Future.

BACKGROUND: Conventional approaches in the management of obesity offer only a limited potential for sustained weight loss. Moreover, bariatric surgery, although momentarily being the most effective weight-loss treatment, has some serious pitfalls, such as significant morbidity rate, high substantial costs and limited patient applicability. Hence, there is a substantial need for endoscopic approaches to obesity. SUMMARY: The aim of this article is to provide a historical overview of bariatric endoscopy in the management of obesity; moreover to selectively review and evaluate the currently available endoscopic weight-loss techniques and devices, and third to identify new directions and future prospects in this rapidly advancing field. Key Messages: Bariatric endoscopy procedures efficiently replicate some of the anatomical features and the physiological effects of the traditional weight-loss surgical approaches, while at the same time being more applicable, entirely reversible, less-invasive, safer and more cost effective. Endoscopic modalities in the treatment of obesity can be categorized into the following: restrictive procedures, malabsorptive procedures, gastric function/emptying regulation, gastric aspiration, and so on. To conclude, it is of high importance to constantly evaluate the long-term efficacy and safety of new endoscopic weight-loss techniques and devices, based on evidence-based medicine principles.

Prevention of Infectious Complications in Acute Pancreatitis: Results of a Single-Center, Randomized, Controlled Trial.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate the efficiency of imipenem to prevent infectious complications in predicted severe acute pancreatitis (AP). METHODS: Consecutive AP patients were randomized to imipenem 3 × 500 mg intravenously daily or an identical placebo. Exclusion criteria were prior AP, chronic pancreatitis, active malignancy, immune deficiency, active infection, concomitant antibiotic treatment, pregnancy, and patients younger than 18 years. Infectious complications including infected pancreatic necrosis, pneumonia, urinary tract infection, positive blood cultures, sepsis, and other infections were assessed as the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes included mortality, persistent organ failure, systemic inflammatory response syndrome, local complications, serious adverse events, and need for surgical intervention. RESULTS: Forty-nine patients were randomized to each group. Infectious complications were present in 10 versus 12 of 49 patients (relative risk [RR], 0.833; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.398-1.747). There were no significant differences in infected pancreatic necrosis (RR, 1.5; 95% CI, 0.262-8.588), pneumonia (RR, 1.5; 95% CI, 0.262-8.588), urinary tract infection (RR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.152-2.374), positive blood cultures (RR, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.047-5.336), sepsis (RR, 0.333; 95% CI, 0.036-3.095), and other (RR, 1.333; 95% CI, 0.315-5.648). We found no significant differences in secondary outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Concordantly to available evidence, there is currently no ground to support prophylactic use of antibiotics in predicted severe AP.

International Consensus on Diverticulosis and Diverticular Disease. Statements from the 3rd International Symposium on Diverticular Disease.

The statements produced by the Chairmen and Speakers of the 3rd International Symposium on Diverticular Disease, held in Madrid on April 11th-13th 2019, are reported. Topics such as current and evolving concepts on the pathogenesis, the course of the disease, the news in diagnosing, hot topics in medical and surgical treatments, and finally, critical issues on the disease were reviewed by the Chairmen who proposed 39 statements graded according to level of evidence and strength of recommendation. Each topic was explored focusing on the more relevant clinical questions. The vote was conducted on a 6-point scale and consensus was defined a priori as 67% agreement of the participants. The voting group consisted of 124 physicians from 18 countries, and agreement with all statements was provided. Comments were added explaining some controversial areas.

The DICA Endoscopic Classification for Diverticular Disease of the Colon Shows a Significant Interobserver Agreement among Community Endoscopists: an International Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The Diverticular Inflammation and Complication Assessment (DICA) endoscopic classification of diverticulosis and diverticular disease (DD) is currently available. It scores severity of the disease as DICA 1, DICA 2 and DICA 3. Our aim was to assess the agreement on this classification in an international endoscopists community setting. METHODS: A total of 96 doctors (82.9% endoscopists) independently scored a set of DD endoscopic videos. The percentages of overall agreement on DICA score and a free-marginal multirater kappa (κ) coefficient were reported as statistical measures of interrater agreement. RESULTS: Overall agreement in using DICA was 91.8% with a free-marginal kappa of 88% (95% CI 80-95). The overall agreement levels were: DICA 1, 85.2%; DICA 2, 96.5%; DICA 3, 99.5%. The free marginal κ was: DICA 1 = 0.753, DICA 2 = 0.958, DICA 3 = 0.919. The agreement about the main endoscopic items was 83.4% (k 67%) for diverticular extension, 62.6% (k 65%) for number of diverticula for each district, 86.8% (k 82%) for presence of inflammation, and 98.5 (k 98%) for presence of complications. CONCLUSIONS: The overall interrater agreement in this study ranges from good to very good. DICA score is a simple and reproducible endoscopic scoring system for diverticulosis and DD.