Personalized treatment selection via product partition models with covariates.

Precision medicine is an approach for disease treatment that defines treatment strategies based on the individual characteristics of the patients. Motivated by an open problem in cancer genomics, we develop a novel model that flexibly clusters patients with similar predictive characteristics and similar treatment responses; this approach identifies, via predictive inference, which one among a set of treatments is better suited for a new patient. The proposed method is fully model based, avoiding uncertainty underestimation attained when treatment assignment is performed by adopting heuristic clustering procedures, and belongs to the class of product partition models with covariates, here extended to include the cohesion induced by the normalized generalized gamma process. The method performs particularly well in scenarios characterized by considerable heterogeneity of the predictive covariates in simulation studies. A cancer genomics case study illustrates the potential benefits in terms of treatment response yielded by the proposed approach. Finally, being model based, the approach allows estimating clusters' specific response probabilities and then identifying patients more likely to benefit from personalized treatment.

Bayesian graphical models for modern biological applications.

Graphical models are powerful tools that are regularly used to investigate complex dependence structures in high-throughput biomedical datasets. They allow for holistic, systems-level view of the various biological processes, for intuitive and rigorous understanding and interpretations. In the context of large networks, Bayesian approaches are particularly suitable because it encourages sparsity of the graphs, incorporate prior information, and most importantly account for uncertainty in the graph structure. These features are particularly important in applications with limited sample size, including genomics and imaging studies. In this paper, we review several recently developed techniques for the analysis of large networks under non-standard settings, including but not limited to, multiple graphs for data observed from multiple related subgroups, graphical regression approaches used for the analysis of networks that change with covariates, and other complex sampling and structural settings. We also illustrate the practical utility of some of these methods using examples in cancer genomics and neuroimaging.

Bayesian Covariate-Dependent Gaussian Graphical Models with Varying Structure.

We introduce Bayesian Gaussian graphical models with covariates (GGMx), a class of multivariate Gaussian distributions with covariate-dependent sparse precision matrix. We propose a general construction of a functional mapping from the covariate space to the cone of sparse positive definite matrices, which encompasses many existing graphical models for heterogeneous settings. Our methodology is based on a novel mixture prior for precision matrices with a non-local component that admits attractive theoretical and empirical properties. The flexible formulation of GGMx allows both the strength and the sparsity pattern of the precision matrix (hence the graph structure) change with the covariates. Posterior inference is carried out with a carefully designed Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, which ensures the positive definiteness of sparse precision matrices at any given covariates' values. Extensive simulations and a case study in cancer genomics demonstrate the utility of the proposed model.

Special issue on statistical analysis of networks: Preface by the guest editors.

The special issue on Statistical Analysis of Networks aspires to convey the breadth and depth of statistical learning with networks, ranging from networks that are observed to networks that are unobserved and learned from data. It includes ten select papers with methodological and theoretical advances, and demonstrates the usefulness of the network paradigm by applications to current problems.

Free Fatty Acids Signature in Human Intestinal Disorders: Significant Association between Butyric Acid and Celiac Disease.

Altered circulating levels of free fatty acids (FFAs), namely short chain fatty acids (SCFAs), medium chain fatty acids (MCFAs), and long chain fatty acids (LCFAs), are associated with metabolic, gastrointestinal, and malignant diseases. Hence, we compared the serum FFA profile of patients with celiac disease (CD), adenomatous polyposis (AP), and colorectal cancer (CRC) to healthy controls (HC). We enrolled 44 patients (19 CRC, 9 AP, 16 CD) and 16 HC. We performed a quantitative FFA evaluation with the gas chromatography-mass spectrometry method (GC-MS), and we performed Dirichlet-multinomial regression in order to highlight disease-specific FFA signature. HC showed a different composition of FFAs than CRC, AP, and CD patients. Furthermore, the partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) confirmed perfect overlap between the CRC and AP patients and separation of HC from the diseased groups. The Dirichlet-multinomial regression identified only strong positive association between CD and butyric acid. Moreover, CD patients showed significant interactions with age, BMI, and gender. In addition, among patients with the same age and BMI, being male compared to being female implies a decrease of the CD effect on the (log) prevalence of butyric acid in FFA composition. Our data support GC-MS as a suitable method for the concurrent analysis of circulating SCFAs, MCFAs, and LCFAs in different gastrointestinal diseases. Furthermore, and notably, we suggest for the first time that butyric acid could represent a potential biomarker for CD screening.

Bayesian learning of multiple directed networks from observational data.

Graphical modeling represents an established methodology for identifying complex dependencies in biological networks, as exemplified in the study of co-expression, gene regulatory, and protein interaction networks. The available observations often exhibit an intrinsic heterogeneity, which impacts on the network structure through the modification of specific pathways for distinct groups, such as disease subtypes. We propose to infer the resulting multiple graphs jointly in order to benefit from potential similarities across groups; on the other hand our modeling framework is able to accommodate group idiosyncrasies. We consider directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) as network structures, and develop a Bayesian method for structural learning of multiple DAGs. We explicitly account for Markov equivalence of DAGs, and propose a suitable prior on the collection of graph spaces that induces selective borrowing strength across groups. The resulting inference allows in particular to compute the posterior probability of edge inclusion, a useful summary for representing flow directions within the network. Finally, we detail a simulation study addressing the comparative performance of our method, and present an analysis of two protein networks together with a substantive interpretation of our findings.

Bayesian modeling of multiple structural connectivity networks during the progression of Alzheimer's disease.

Alzheimer's disease is the most common neurodegenerative disease. The aim of this study is to infer structural changes in brain connectivity resulting from disease progression using cortical thickness measurements from a cohort of participants who were either healthy control, or with mild cognitive impairment, or Alzheimer's disease patients. For this purpose, we develop a novel approach for inference of multiple networks with related edge values across groups. Specifically, we infer a Gaussian graphical model for each group within a joint framework, where we rely on Bayesian hierarchical priors to link the precision matrix entries across groups. Our proposal differs from existing approaches in that it flexibly learns which groups have the most similar edge values, and accounts for the strength of connection (rather than only edge presence or absence) when sharing information across groups. Our results identify key alterations in structural connectivity that may reflect disruptions to the healthy brain, such as decreased connectivity within the occipital lobe with increasing disease severity. We also illustrate the proposed method through simulations, where we demonstrate its performance in structure learning and precision matrix estimation with respect to alternative approaches.

Bayesian inference of networks across multiple sample groups and data types.

In this article, we develop a graphical modeling framework for the inference of networks across multiple sample groups and data types. In medical studies, this setting arises whenever a set of subjects, which may be heterogeneous due to differing disease stage or subtype, is profiled across multiple platforms, such as metabolomics, proteomics, or transcriptomics data. Our proposed Bayesian hierarchical model first links the network structures within each platform using a Markov random field prior to relate edge selection across sample groups, and then links the network similarity parameters across platforms. This enables joint estimation in a flexible manner, as we make no assumptions on the directionality of influence across the data types or the extent of network similarity across the sample groups and platforms. In addition, our model formulation allows the number of variables and number of subjects to differ across the data types, and only requires that we have data for the same set of groups. We illustrate the proposed approach through both simulation studies and an application to gene expression levels and metabolite abundances on subjects with varying severity levels of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Bayesian inference; Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); Data integration; Gaussian graphical model; Markov random field prior; Spike and slab prior.

Investigating protein patterns in human leukemia cell line experiments: A Bayesian approach for extremely small sample sizes.

Human cancer cell line experiments are valuable for investigating drug sensitivity biomarkers. The number of biomarkers measured in these experiments is typically on the order of several thousand, whereas the number of samples is often limited to one or at most three replicates for each experimental condition. We have developed an innovative Bayesian approach that efficiently identifies clusters of proteins that exhibit similar patterns of expression. Motivated by the availability of ion mobility mass spectrometry data on cell line experiments in myelodysplastic syndrome and acute myeloid leukemia, our methodology can identify proteins that follow biologically meaningful trends of expression. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate good performance of the proposed method even in the presence of relatively small effects and sample sizes.

Bayesian Hierarchical Varying-sparsity Regression Models with Application to Cancer Proteogenomics.

Identifying patient-specific prognostic biomarkers is of critical importance in developing personalized treatment for clinically and molecularly heterogeneous diseases such as cancer. In this article, we propose a novel regression framework, Bayesian hierarchical varying-sparsity regression (BEHAVIOR) models to select clinically relevant disease markers by integrating proteogenomic (proteomic+genomic) and clinical data. Our methods allow flexible modeling of protein-gene relationships as well as induces sparsity in both protein-gene and protein-survival relationships, to select ge-nomically driven prognostic protein markers at the patient-level. Simulation studies demonstrate the superior performance of BEHAVIOR against competing method in terms of both protein marker selection and survival prediction. We apply BEHAV-IOR to The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) proteogenomic pan-cancer data and find several interesting prognostic proteins and pathways that are shared across multiple cancers and some that exclusively pertain to specific cancers.

Bayesian personalized treatment selection strategies that integrate predictive with prognostic determinants.

The evolution of "informatics" technologies has the potential to generate massive databases, but the extent to which personalized medicine may be effectuated depends on the extent to which these rich databases may be utilized to advance understanding of the disease molecular profiles and ultimately integrated for treatment selection, necessitating robust methodology for dimension reduction. Yet, statistical methods proposed to address challenges arising with the high-dimensionality of omics-type data predominately rely on linear models and emphasize associations deriving from prognostic biomarkers. Existing methods are often limited for discovering predictive biomarkers that interact with treatment and fail to elucidate the predictive power of their resultant selection rules. In this article, we present a Bayesian predictive method for personalized treatment selection that is devised to integrate both the treatment predictive and disease prognostic characteristics of a particular patient's disease. The method appropriately characterizes the structural constraints inherent to prognostic and predictive biomarkers, and hence properly utilizes these complementary sources of information for treatment selection. The methodology is illustrated through a case study of lower grade glioma. Theoretical considerations are explored to demonstrate the manner in which treatment selection is impacted by prognostic features. Additionally, simulations based on an actual leukemia study are provided to ascertain the method's performance with respect to selection rules derived from competing methods.

Calibration strategies for use of the nanoDot OSLD in CT applications.

Aluminum oxide based optically stimulated luminescent dosimeters (OSLD) have been recognized as a useful dosimeter for measuring CT dose, particularly for patient dose measurements. Despite the increasing use of this dosimeter, appropriate dosimeter calibration techniques have not been established in the literature; while the manufacturer offers a calibration procedure, it is known to have relatively large uncertainties. The purpose of this work was to evaluate two clinical approaches for calibrating these dosimeters for CT applications, and to determine the uncertainty associated with measurements using these techniques. Three unique calibration procedures were used to calculate dose for a range of CT conditions using a commercially available OSLD and reader. The three calibration procedures included calibration (a) using the vendor-provided method, (b) relative to a 120 kVp CT spectrum in air, and (c) relative to a megavoltage beam (implemented with 60 Co). The dose measured using each of these approaches was compared to dose measured using a calibrated farmer-type ion chamber. Finally, the uncertainty in the dose measured using each approach was determined. For the CT and megavoltage calibration methods, the dose measured using the OSLD nanoDot was within 5% of the dose measured using an ion chamber for a wide range of different CT scan parameters (80-140 kVp, and with measurements at a range of positions). When calibrated using the vendor-recommended protocol, the OSLD measured doses were on average 15.5% lower than ion chamber doses. Two clinical calibration techniques have been evaluated and are presented in this work as alternatives to the vendor-provided calibration approach. These techniques provide high precision for OSLD-based measurements in a CT environment.

Bayesian Graphical Regression.

We consider the problem of modeling conditional independence structures in heterogeneous data in the presence of additional subject-level covariates - termed Graphical Regression. We propose a novel specification of a conditional (in)dependence function of covariates - which allows the structure of a directed graph to vary flexibly with the covariates; imposes sparsity in both edge and covariate selection; produces both subject-specific and predictive graphs; and is computationally tractable. We provide theoretical justifications of our modeling endeavor, in terms of graphical model selection consistency. We demonstrate the performance of our method through rigorous simulation studies. We illustrate our approach in a cancer genomics-based precision medicine paradigm, where-in we explore gene regulatory networks in multiple myeloma taking prognostic clinical factors into account to obtain both population-level and subject-level gene regulatory networks.

A New Anthropomorphic Pediatric Spine Phantom for Proton Therapy Clinical Trial Credentialing.

PURPOSE: To design and evaluate an anthropomorphic spine phantom for use in credentialing proton therapy facilities for clinical trial participation by the Imaging and Radiation Oncology Core Houston QA Center. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A phantom was designed to perform an end-to-end audit of the proton spine treatment process, including simulation, dose calculation, and proton treatment delivery. Because plastics that simulate bone in proton beams are unknown, 11 potential materials were tested to identify suitable phantom materials. Once built, preliminary testing using passive scattering and spot scanning treatment plans (including a field junction) were created in-house and delivered 3 times to test reproducibility. The following measured attributes were compared with the calculated values: absolute dose agreement using thermoluminescent dosimeters, planar gamma agreement, distal range, junction match, and right and left profile alignment using radiochromic film. Finally, credentialing results from 10 institutions were also assessed. RESULTS: A suitable bone substitute was identified (Techtron HPV Bearing Grade), which had a measured relative stopping power that agreed within 1.1% of its value calculated by Eclipse. In-house passive scatter testing of the phantom demonstrated that the phantom was suitable for assessing craniospinal irradiation dose delivery. However, the in-house scanning beam results were more mixed, highlighting challenges in treatment delivery. Seven of ten institutions passed the proposed criteria for this phantom, a pass rate consistent with other Imaging and Radiation Oncology phantoms. CONCLUSIONS: An anthropomorphic proton spine phantom was developed to evaluate proton therapy delivery. This phantom provides a realistic challenge for centers wishing to participate in proton clinical trials and highlights the need for caution in applying advanced treatments.

Transcriptomic analysis reveals inflammatory and metabolic pathways that are regulated by renal perfusion pressure in the outer medulla of Dahl-S rats.

Studies exploring the development of hypertension have traditionally been unable to distinguish which of the observed changes are underlying causes from those that are a consequence of elevated blood pressure. In this study, a custom-designed servo-control system was utilized to precisely control renal perfusion pressure to the left kidney continuously during the development of hypertension in Dahl salt-sensitive rats. In this way, we maintained the left kidney at control blood pressure while the right kidney was exposed to hypertensive pressures. As each kidney was exposed to the same circulating factors, differences between them represent changes induced by pressure alone. RNA sequencing analysis identified 1,613 differently expressed genes affected by renal perfusion pressure. Three pathway analysis methods were applied, one a novel approach incorporating arterial pressure as an input variable allowing a more direct connection between the expression of genes and pressure. The statistical analysis proposed several novel pathways by which pressure affects renal physiology. We confirmed the effects of pressure on p-Jnk regulation, in which the hypertensive medullas show increased p-Jnk/Jnk ratios relative to the left (0.79 ± 0.11 vs. 0.53 ± 0.10, P < 0.01, n = 8). We also confirmed pathway predictions of mitochondrial function, in which the respiratory control ratio of hypertensive vs. control mitochondria are significantly reduced (7.9 ± 1.2 vs. 10.4 ± 1.8, P < 0.01, n = 6) and metabolomic profile, in which 14 metabolites differed significantly between hypertensive and control medullas ( P < 0.05, n = 5). These findings demonstrate that subtle differences in the transcriptome can be used to predict functional changes of the kidney as a consequence of pressure elevation.

A Bayesian Approach for Learning Gene Networks Underlying Disease Severity in COPD.

In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical approach to infer network structures across multiple sample groups where both shared and differential edges may exist across the groups. In our approach, we link graphs through a Markov random field prior. This prior on network similarity provides a measure of pairwise relatedness that borrows strength only between related groups. We incorporate the computational efficiency of continuous shrinkage priors, improving scalability for network estimation in cases of larger dimensionality. Our model is applied to patient groups with increasing levels of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease severity, with the goal of better understanding the break down of gene pathways as the disease progresses. Our approach is able to identify critical hub genes for four targeted pathways. Furthermore, it identifies gene connections that are disrupted with increased disease severity and that characterize the disease evolution. We also demonstrate the superior performance of our approach with respect to competing methods, using simulated data.

Integrating genomic signatures for treatment selection with Bayesian predictive failure time models.

Over the past decade, a tremendous amount of resources have been dedicated to the pursuit of developing genomic signatures that effectively match patients with targeted therapies. Although dozens of therapies that target DNA mutations have been developed, the practice of studying single candidate genes has limited our understanding of cancer. Moreover, many studies of multiple-gene signatures have been conducted for the purpose of identifying prognostic risk cohorts, and thus are limited for selecting personalized treatments. Existing statistical methods for treatment selection often model treatment-by-covariate interactions that are difficult to specify, and require prohibitively large patient cohorts. In this article, we describe a Bayesian predictive failure time model for treatment selection that integrates multiple-gene signatures. Our approach relies on a heuristic measure of similarity that determines the extent to which historically treated patients contribute to the outcome prediction of new patients. The similarity measure, which can be obtained from existing clustering methods, imparts robustness to the underlying stochastic data structure, which enhances feasibility in the presence of small samples. Performance of the proposed method is evaluated in simulation studies, and its application is demonstrated through a study of lung squamous cell carcinoma. Our Bayesian predictive failure time approach is shown to effectively leverage genomic signatures to match patients to the therapies that are most beneficial for prolonging their survival.

An FMEA evaluation of intensity modulated radiation therapy dose delivery failures at tolerance criteria levels.

PURPOSE: The objective of this work was to assess both the perception of failure modes in Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) when the linac is operated at the edge of tolerances given in AAPM TG-40 (Kutcher et al.) and TG-142 (Klein et al.) as well as the application of FMEA to this specific section of the IMRT process. METHODS: An online survey was distributed to approximately 2000 physicists worldwide that participate in quality services provided by the Imaging and Radiation Oncology Core - Houston (IROC-H). The survey briefly described eleven different failure modes covered by basic quality assurance in step-and-shoot IMRT at or near TG-40 (Kutcher et al.) and TG-142 (Klein et al.) tolerance criteria levels. Respondents were asked to estimate the worst case scenario percent dose error that could be caused by each of these failure modes in a head and neck patient as well as the FMEA scores: Occurrence, Detectability, and Severity. Risk probability number (RPN) scores were calculated as the product of these scores. Demographic data were also collected. RESULTS: A total of 181 individual and three group responses were submitted. 84% were from North America. Most (76%) individual respondents performed at least 80% clinical work and 92% were nationally certified. Respondent medical physics experience ranged from 2.5 to 45 yr (average 18 yr). A total of 52% of individual respondents were at least somewhat familiar with FMEA, while 17% were not familiar. Several IMRT techniques, treatment planning systems, and linear accelerator manufacturers were represented. All failure modes received widely varying scores ranging from 1 to 10 for occurrence, at least 1-9 for detectability, and at least 1-7 for severity. Ranking failure modes by RPN scores also resulted in large variability, with each failure mode being ranked both most risky (1st) and least risky (11th) by different respondents. On average MLC modeling had the highest RPN scores. Individual estimated percent dose errors and severity scores positively correlated (P < 0.01) for each FM as expected. No universal correlations were found between the demographic information collected and scoring, percent dose errors or ranking. CONCLUSIONS: Failure modes investigated overall were evaluated as low to medium risk, with average RPNs less than 110. The ranking of 11 failure modes was not agreed upon by the community. Large variability in FMEA scoring may be caused by individual interpretation and/or experience, reflecting the subjective nature of the FMEA tool.

Reproducibility of patient setup in the seated treatment position: A novel treatment chair design.

Radiotherapy in a seated position may be indicated for patients who are unable to lie on the treatment couch for the duration of treatment, in scenarios where a seated treatment position provides superior anatomical positioning and dose distributions, or for a low-cost system designed using a fixed treatment beam and rotating seated patient. In this study, we report a novel treatment chair that was constructed to allow for three-dimensional imaging and treatment delivery while ensuring robust immobilization, providing reproducibility equivalent to that in the traditional supine position. Five patients undergoing radiation treatment for head-and-neck cancers were enrolled and were setup in the chair, with immobilization devices created, and then imaged with orthogonal X-rays in a scenario that mimicked radiation treatments (without treatment delivery). Six subregions of the acquired images were rigidly registered to evaluate intra- and interfraction displacement and chair construction. Displacements under conditions of simulated image guidance were acquired by first registering one subregion; the residual displacement of other subregions was then measured. Additionally, we administered a patient questionnaire to gain patient feedback and assess comparison to the supine position. Average inter- and intrafraction displacements of all subregions in the seated position were less than 2 and 3 mm, respectively. When image guidance was simulated, L-R and A-P interfraction displacements were reduced by an average of 1 mm, providing setup of comparable quality to supine setups. The enrolled patients, who had no indication for a seated treatment position, reported no preference in the seated or the supine position. The novel chair design provides acceptable inter- and intrafraction displacement, with reproducibility equivalent to that reported for patients in the supine position. Patient feedback will be incorporated in the refinement of the chair, facilitating treatment of head-and-neck cancer in patients who are unable to lie for the duration of treatment or for use in an economical fixed-beam setup.

A Bayesian integrative approach for multi-platform genomic data: A kidney cancer case study.

Integration of genomic data from multiple platforms has the capability to increase precision, accuracy, and statistical power in the identification of prognostic biomarkers. A fundamental problem faced in many multi-platform studies is unbalanced sample sizes due to the inability to obtain measurements from all the platforms for all the patients in the study. We have developed a novel Bayesian approach that integrates multi-regression models to identify a small set of biomarkers that can accurately predict time-to-event outcomes. This method fully exploits the amount of available information across platforms and does not exclude any of the subjects from the analysis. Through simulations, we demonstrate the utility of our method and compare its performance to that of methods that do not borrow information across regression models. Motivated by The Cancer Genome Atlas kidney renal cell carcinoma dataset, our methodology provides novel insights missed by non-integrative models.