Too risky to use, or too risky not to? Lessons learned from over 30 years of research on forensic risk assessment with Indigenous persons.

Indigenous peoples are overrepresented in correctional systems internationally, reflecting a history of systemic racism and colonial oppression, and the practice of risk assessment with this population has been a focus of legal and sociopolitical controversy. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the risk assessment literature comparing Indigenous and non-Indigenous (White majority) groups. We retrieved 91 studies featuring 22 risk tools and 15 risk/need/cultural domains (N = 59,693, Indigenous; N = 237,729, non-Indigenous/White) and four documents identifying culturally relevant factors. Most measures demonstrated moderate predictive validity but often had significant ethnoracial differences, particularly for static measures. The Service Planning Instrument/Youth Assessment Screening Inventory, Level of Service Inventory youth variants, Psychopathy Checklist-Revised and Youth Version, and the Violence Risk Scale and its Sexual Offense version had the strongest predictive validity and least ethnoracial discrepancy. The Static Factors Assessment and Dynamic Factors Identification and Analysis-Revised had the weakest predictive validity. For Indigenous persons, the strongest individual predictors of recidivism were low education/employment, substance abuse, antisocial pattern, and poor community functioning, while mitigating factors that predicted decreased recidivism were measures of risk change (i.e., from culturally integrated programs combining mainstream and traditional healing approaches), cultural engagement/connectedness, and protective factors. In practice, static measures need to be supplemented with dynamic ones, and assessors should select measures with at least moderate predictive validity and ideally the least ethnoracial bias. These conclusions are tempered by the quantity and quality of the literature coupled with the circumstance that some study authors have coauthored tools in this review. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

The Risk, Need, and Responsivity Relevance of Working Alliance in a Sexual Offense Treatment Program: Its Intersection With Psychopathy, Diversity, and Treatment Change.

The current study examined the self-reported working alliance of men attending a high intensity sexual offense treatment program and its associations with psychopathy, sexual violence risk, treatment change, and recidivism, in a Canadian sample of 317 incarcerated men followed up an average of approximately 10 years post release. Working Alliance Inventory (WAI; Horvath & Greenberg, 1989) self-reported total, Task, Bond, and Goal scores were positively correlated with treatment related changes in risk, and inversely associated with Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R; Hare, 1991; Wang & Hare, 2003) scores. The Affective facet of the PCL-R, representing the callous-unemotional features of the syndrome, uniquely predicted lower Bond and Goal scores controlling for the other facets. Cox regression survival analyses demonstrated that sexual violence risk predicted increased sexual recidivism while change predicted decreased sexual recidivism controlling for PCL-R total score; however, WAI scores (particularly the Goal component) were also unexpectedly associated with increased sexual recidivism. For violent recidivism, psychopathy, risk, and change incremented the prediction of general violence, while the WAI was not significantly associated with this outcome. A set of parallel analyses, stratified by Indigenous ethnocultural heritage, demonstrated some continuity, but also potential areas of difference, in substantive findings. Risk, need, responsivity implications of the working alliance for the treatment of high psychopathy correctional clientele, and how this may intersect with Indigenous heritage, are discussed.

Dynamic violence risk, protective factors, and therapeutic change in a gender and ethnoculturally diverse sample of court-adjudicated youth.

The present study examined the predictive properties of three youth forensic measures-the Violence Risk Scale-Youth Version (VRS-YV), Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY), and the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors-Youth Version (SAPROF-YV)-in a diverse court-adjudicated sample of 257 youth referred for assessment and intervention services at an outpatient mental health facility, and followed up an average of 9.4 years in the community. Study measures were rated from court and clinical files, along with treatment participation, and recidivism outcome data were obtained from official criminal records. The three measures had strong interrater and convergent validity, and moderate to high predictive accuracy for violent, nonviolent, and general recidivism. The measures significantly predicted outcome across male, female, Indigenous, and non-Indigenous groups; however, prediction magnitudes showed some variability with respect to specific risk/protection domains and outcome types. Cox regression survival analyses demonstrated incremental predictive validity for each violence risk measure, but not protection measures, with respect to each of the three recidivism outcomes. Moreover, pre-/posttreatment measurements of change on the VRS-YV dynamic factors were significantly associated with decreased nonviolent recidivism, controlling for baseline risk and protection. Violence risk (VRS-YV) and protection (SAPROF-YV) scores have the potential to be integrated in meaningful ways to capture the potential risk-mitigating effects of protective factors. Implications for integrating risk, protection, and treatment change information in clinical-forensic service delivery to diverse and violent youth populations are discussed. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Sexual Violence Risk Assessment With Indigenous Men: Context, Controversies, and Current Findings.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: We review the issues, controversies, and main findings from the sexual violence risk assessment literature with Indigenous men. An argument is presented for the incorporation of structured and validated risk assessment measures as part of a comprehensive assessment to inform risk management and the prevention of sexual violence. RECENT FINDINGS: Extant research demonstrates that Canadian Indigenous men convicted for sexual offenses tend to score higher on sexual violence risk measures and to have higher rates of sexual and violent recidivism. Established static and dynamic tools, however, have moderate predictive accuracy for sexual and violent recidivism and changes in risk from treatment or other change agents are associated with decreases in recidivism. Static-99R and the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version demonstrate acceptable properties of calibration for indigenous men with respect to sexual recidivism, although Indigenous men continue to show higher rates of violent recidivism associated with risk scores. The extant literature provides support for the discrimination and calibration properties of established static and dynamic sexual violence risk tools with Indigenous men; use of a dynamic tool is critical to inform risk management interventions and evaluate change. Risk measures are one component of a comprehensive and integrated assessment process that incorporates responsivity considerations, conducted in a culturally competent, ethical, and humane manner.

Evaluating Change in Men Who Have Sexually Offended: Linkages to Risk Assessment and Management.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: We provide a review and synthesis of the sexual offense treatment change literature with implications for dynamic sexual violence risk assessment and management. An argument is presented for the need for a dynamic approach in research and practice, and that for change to be prognostic, such changes need to be risk relevant and to come from credible change agents. RECENT FINDINGS: Extant research demonstrates that changes on psychologically meaningful dimensions of risk and need (e.g., sexual deviance; attitudes and cognitions; anger, aggression, and hostility) tend to be associated with reductions in sexual and other forms of recidivism; however, changes in domains less germane to risk and need tend not to be (e.g., empathy, mental health and well-being). Formalized dynamic sexual offense risk measures can be administered at multiple time points to reliably measure changes in sexual violence risk. Change information can then be used systematically to adjust risk appraisals. The extant literature supports the dynamic nature of sexual violence risk. Working toward the routine assessment of change with psychometrically sound measures, and integrating this information into risk management interventions, can not only improve lives and reduce sexual violence but is an ethical and human responsibility.

Convergent and Predictive Validity of the Jesness Inventory in a Sample of Juvenile Offenders.

The present study examined the convergent and predictive validity of the Jesness Inventories (JI) in a sample of 138 juvenile offenders, completed in the course of routine service delivery. JI profiles were compared with ratings on three standardized forensic clinical scales: the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory, Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version, and Violence Risk Scale-Youth Version. The JI Asocial Index and the Undersocialized Active and Group-Oriented Conformist Interpersonal Maturity Level (I-level) subtypes demonstrated the strongest pattern of convergence and most consistently predicted recidivism. The Asocial Index did not incrementally predict recidivism after controlling for scores on the standardized forensic clinical scales; however, meaningful differences among broad I-Level groups (I-3 and I-4) remained after controlling for risk. Risk-need-responsivity applications of the JI (i.e., in terms of treatment dosage, identifying treatment targets, and adaptation of services) are discussed within the context of a comprehensive forensic assessment framework to inform case formulation, service delivery, and decision making with justice involved youth.

Thirty years of research on the level of service scales: a meta-analytic examination of predictive accuracy and sources of variability.

We conducted a comprehensive meta-analysis of the Level of Service (LS) scales, their predictive accuracy and group-based differences in risk/need, across 128 studies comprising 151 independent samples and a total of 137,931 offenders. Important potential moderators were examined including ethnicity, gender, LS scale variant, geographic region, and type of recidivism used to measure outcome. Results supported the predictive accuracy of the LS scales and their criminogenic need domains for general and violent recidivism overall, and among broad subgroups of interest, including females and ethnic minorities. Although results indicated that gender and ethnicity were not substantive sources of effect size variability, significant differences in effect size magnitude were found when analyses were conducted by geographic region. Canadian samples consistently demonstrated the largest effect sizes, followed by studies conducted outside North America, and then studies conducted in the United States. This pattern was observed irrespective of gender, ethnicity, LS domain, LS variant, or type of recidivism outcome, suggesting geographic region may be an important source of effect size variation. We discuss possible factors underlying this pattern of results and identify areas for future research.

Short and long-term prediction of recidivism using the youth level of service/case management inventory in a sample of serious young offenders.

The present investigation examined the predictive accuracy of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) for youth and adult recidivism in a Canadian sample of 167 youths (93 males, 74 females) charged with serious offenses who received psychological services from a community mental health outpatient clinic. Youths were followed for an average of 7 years in the community, and predictive accuracy was examined for several recidivism outcomes as a function of gender, ethnicity, and developmental age group. YLS/CMI total scores significantly predicted all recidivism categories in the overall sample (area under the curve values ranged from 0.66 to 0.77) although the instrument as a whole, and its criminogenic needs, demonstrated somewhat stronger and more consistent predictive accuracy for youth outcomes. The YLS/CMI also demonstrated significant predictive accuracy within demographic subgroups. The implications of these findings are discussed in terms of the use of risk-need assessment tools in providing clinical assessment, treatment, and case management services to diverse young offender groups.

A meta-analysis of predictors of offender treatment attrition and its relationship to recidivism.

OBJECTIVE: The failure of offenders to complete psychological treatment can pose significant concerns, including increased risk for recidivism. Although a large literature identifying predictors of offender treatment attrition has accumulated, there has yet to be a comprehensive quantitative review. METHOD: A meta-analysis of the offender treatment literature was conducted to identify predictors of offender treatment attrition and examine its relationship to recidivism. The review covered 114 studies representing 41,438 offenders. Sex offender and domestic violence programs were also examined separately given their large independent literatures. RESULTS: The overall attrition rate was 27.1% across all programs (k = 96), 27.6% from sex offender programs (k = 34), and 37.8% from domestic violence programs (k = 35). Rates increased when preprogram attrition was considered. Significant predictors included demographic characteristics (e.g., age, rw = -.10), criminal history and personality variables (e.g., prior offenses, rw = .14; antisocial personality, rw = .14), psychological concerns (e.g., intelligence, rw = -.14), risk assessment measures (e.g., Statistical Information on Recidivism scale, rw =.18), and treatment-related attitudes and behaviors (e.g., motivation, rw = -.13). Results indicated that treatment noncompleters were higher risk offenders and attrition from all programs significantly predicted several recidivism outcomes ranging from rw = .08 to .23. CONCLUSIONS: The clients who stand to benefit the most from treatment (i.e., high-risk, high-needs) are the least likely to complete it. Offender treatment attrition can be managed and clients can be retained through an awareness of, and attention to, key predictors of attrition and adherence to responsivity considerations.

The Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version and adolescent and adult recidivism: considerations with respect to gender, ethnicity, and age.

The present study investigated the predictive accuracy of the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL: YV; A. E. Forth, D. S. Kosson, & R. D. Hare, 2003) for youth and adult recidivism, with respect to gender, ethnicity, and age, in a sample of 161 Canadian young offenders who received psychological services from an outpatient mental health facility. The PCL: YV significantly predicted any general, nonviolent, and violent recidivism in the aggregate sample over a 7-year follow-up; however, when results were disaggregated by youth and adult outcomes, the PCL: YV consistently appeared to be a stronger predictor of youth recidivism. The PCL: YV predicted youth recidivism for subsamples of female and Aboriginal youths, and very few differences in the predictive accuracy of the tool were observed for younger vs. older adolescent groups. Both the 13-item (i.e., D. J. Cooke & C. Michie, 2001, 3-factor) and the 20-item (i.e., R. D. Hare, 2003, 4-factor) models appeared to predict various recidivism criteria comparably across the aggregate sample and within specific demographic subgroups (e.g., female and Aboriginal youth). The Antisocial facet contributed the most variance in the prediction of adult outcomes, whereas the 3-factor model contributed significant incremental variance in the prediction of youth recidivism outcomes. Potential implications concerning the use of the PCL: YV in clinical and forensic assessment contexts are discussed.