Trade-offs constrain the success of glyphosate-free farming.

Glyphosate, the most widely used herbicide, is linked with environmental harm and there is a drive to replace it in agricultural systems. We model the impacts of discontinuing glyphosate use and replacing it with cultural control methods. We simulate winter wheat arable systems reliant on glyphosate and typical in northwest Europe. Removing glyphosate was projected to increase weed abundance, herbicide risk to the environment, and arable plant diversity and decrease food production. Weed communities with evolved resistance to non-glyphosate herbicides were not projected to be disproportionately affected by removing glyphosate, despite the lack of alternative herbicidal control options. Crop rotations with more spring cereals or grass leys for weed control increased arable plant diversity. Stale seedbed techniques such as delayed drilling and choosing ploughing instead of minimum tillage had varying effects on weed abundance, food production, and profitability. Ploughing was the most effective alternative to glyphosate for long-term weed control while maintaining production and profit. Our findings emphasize the need for careful consideration of trade-offs arising in scenarios where glyphosate is removed. Integrated Weed Management (IWM) with more use of cultural control methods offers the potential to reduce chemical use but is sensitive to seasonal variability and can incur negative environmental and economic impacts.

Modelling the effect of spatially variable soil properties on the distribution of weeds.

The patch spraying of weeds is an area of precision agriculture that has had limited uptake. This is in part due to the perceived risks associated with not controlling individual weeds. Nevertheless, the inherent patchiness of weeds makes them ideal targets for site-specific management. We propose using a mechanistic model to identify areas of a field vulnerable to invasion by weeds, allowing the creation of treatment maps that are risk averse. We developed a spatially-explicit mechanistic model of the life-cycle of Alopecurus myosuroides, a particularly problematic weed of cereal crops in the UK. In the model, soil conditions which vary across the field, affect the life-cycle of A. myosuroides. The model was validated using data on the within-field distribution of A. myosuroides on commercial farms and its co-location with soil properties. We demonstrate the important role played by soil properties in determining the within-field distribution of A. myosuroides. We also show that scale-dependent correlations between A. myosuroides and soil properties observed in the field are an emergent property of the modelled dynamics of the A. myosuroides life-cycle. Our model could therefore support effective site-specific management of A. myosuroides within fields by predicting areas that are vulnerable to A. myosuroides. The usefulness of this model in its ability to predict patch locations for A. myosuroides highlights the possibility of using similar models for other species where data are available on the response of the species to various soil properties.

What good is weed diversity?

Should the declining diversity of weed communities in conventionally managed arable fields be regarded as a problem? The answer to this question has tended to divide researchers into those whose primary focus is on conserving farmland biodiversity and those whose goals are dictated by weed control and maximising yield. Here, we argue that, regardless of how weeds are perceived, there are common ecological principles that should underpin any approach to managing weed communities, and, based on these principles, increasing in-field weed diversity could be advantageous agronomically as well as environmentally. We hypothesise that a more diverse weed community will be less competitive, less prone to dominance by highly adapted, herbicide-resistant species and that the diversity of the weed seedbank will be indicative of the overall sustainability of the cropping system. Common to these hypotheses is the idea that the intensification of agriculture has been accompanied by a homogenisation of cropping systems and landscapes, accounting for both declines in weed diversity and the reduced resilience of cropping systems (including the build-up of herbicide resistance). As such, weed communities represent a useful indicator of the success of rediversifying systems at multiple scales, which will be a central component of making agriculture and weed control more sustainable.

Reviewing research priorities in weed ecology, evolution and management: a horizon scan.

Weedy plants pose a major threat to food security, biodiversity, ecosystem services and consequently to human health and wellbeing. However, many currently used weed management approaches are increasingly unsustainable. To address this knowledge and practice gap, in June 2014, 35 weed and invasion ecologists, weed scientists, evolutionary biologists and social scientists convened a workshop to explore current and future perspectives and approaches in weed ecology and management. A horizon scanning exercise ranked a list of 124 pre-submitted questions to identify a priority list of 30 questions. These questions are discussed under seven themed headings that represent areas for renewed and emerging focus for the disciplines of weed research and practice. The themed areas considered the need for transdisciplinarity, increased adoption of integrated weed management and agroecological approaches, better understanding of weed evolution, climate change, weed invasiveness and finally, disciplinary challenges for weed science. Almost all the challenges identified rested on the need for continued efforts to diversify and integrate agroecological, socio-economic and technological approaches in weed management. These challenges are not newly conceived, though their continued prominence as research priorities highlights an ongoing intransigence that must be addressed through a more system-oriented and transdisciplinary research agenda that seeks an embedded integration of public and private research approaches. This horizon scanning exercise thus set out the building blocks needed for future weed management research and practice; however, the challenge ahead is to identify effective ways in which sufficient research and implementation efforts can be directed towards these needs.

Defining the habitat niche of Alopecurus myosuroides at the field scale.

The distribution of Alopecurus myosuroides (black-grass) in fields is patchy. The locations of these patches can be influenced by the environment. This presents an opportunity for precision management through patch spraying. We surveyed five fields on various types of soil using a nested sampling design and recorded both A. myosuroides seedlings in autumn and seed heads in summer. We also measured soil properties at those sampling locations. We found that the patches of seed heads within a field were smaller than the seedling patches, suggesting that techniques for patch spraying based on maps of heads in the previous season could be inherently risky. We also found that the location of A. myosuroides patches within fields can be predicted through their relationship with environmental properties and that these relations are consistent across fields on different soil types. This improved understanding of the relations between soil properties and A. myosuroides seedlings could allow farmers to use pre-existing or suitably supplemented soil maps already in use for the precision application of fertilisers as a starting point in the creation of herbicide application maps.

Designing a sampling scheme to reveal correlations between weeds and soil properties at multiple spatial scales.

Weeds tend to aggregate in patches within fields, and there is evidence that this is partly owing to variation in soil properties. Because the processes driving soil heterogeneity operate at various scales, the strength of the relations between soil properties and weed density would also be expected to be scale-dependent. Quantifying these effects of scale on weed patch dynamics is essential to guide the design of discrete sampling protocols for mapping weed distribution. We developed a general method that uses novel within-field nested sampling and residual maximum-likelihood (reml) estimation to explore scale-dependent relations between weeds and soil properties. We validated the method using a case study of Alopecurus myosuroides in winter wheat. Using reml, we partitioned the variance and covariance into scale-specific components and estimated the correlations between the weed counts and soil properties at each scale. We used variograms to quantify the spatial structure in the data and to map variables by kriging. Our methodology successfully captured the effect of scale on a number of edaphic drivers of weed patchiness. The overall Pearson correlations between A. myosuroides and soil organic matter and clay content were weak and masked the stronger correlations at >50 m. Knowing how the variance was partitioned across the spatial scales, we optimised the sampling design to focus sampling effort at those scales that contributed most to the total variance. The methods have the potential to guide patch spraying of weeds by identifying areas of the field that are vulnerable to weed establishment.

Grassland biodiversity bounces back from long-term nitrogen addition.

The negative effect of increasing atmospheric nitrogen (N) pollution on grassland biodiversity is now incontrovertible. However, the recent introduction of cleaner technologies in the UK has led to reductions in the emissions of nitrogen oxides, with concomitant decreases in N deposition. The degree to which grassland biodiversity can be expected to 'bounce back' in response to these improvements in air quality is uncertain, with a suggestion that long-term chronic N addition may lead to an alternative low biodiversity state. Here we present evidence from the 160-year-old Park Grass Experiment at Rothamsted Research, UK, that shows a positive response of biodiversity to reducing N addition from either atmospheric pollution or fertilizers. The proportion of legumes, species richness and diversity increased across the experiment between 1991 and 2012 as both wet and dry N deposition declined. Plots that stopped receiving inorganic N fertilizer in 1989 recovered much of the diversity that had been lost, especially if limed. There was no evidence that chronic N addition has resulted in an alternative low biodiversity state on the Park Grass plots, except where there has been extreme acidification, although it is likely that the recovery of plant communities has been facilitated by the twice-yearly mowing and removal of biomass. This may also explain why a comparable response of plant communities to reduced N inputs has yet to be observed in the wider landscape.

Combining a weed traits database with a population dynamics model predicts shifts in weed communities.

A functional approach to predicting shifts in weed floras in response to management or environmental change requires the combination of data on weed traits with analytical frameworks that capture the filtering effect of selection pressures on traits. A weed traits database (WTDB) was designed, populated and analysed, initially using data for 19 common European weeds, to begin to consolidate trait data in a single repository. The initial choice of traits was driven by the requirements of empirical models of weed population dynamics to identify correlations between traits and model parameters. These relationships were used to build a generic model, operating at the level of functional traits, to simulate the impact of increasing herbicide and fertiliser use on virtual weeds along gradients of seed weight and maximum height. The model generated 'fitness contours' (defined as population growth rates) within this trait space in different scenarios, onto which two sets of weed species, defined as common or declining in the UK, were mapped. The effect of increasing inputs on the weed flora was successfully simulated; 77% of common species were predicted to have stable or increasing populations under high fertiliser and herbicide use, in contrast with only 29% of the species that have declined. Future development of the WTDB will aim to increase the number of species covered, incorporate a wider range of traits and analyse intraspecific variability under contrasting management and environments.

A review of the potential for competitive cereal cultivars as a tool in integrated weed management.

Competitive crop cultivars offer a potentially cheap option to include in integrated weed management strategies (IWM). Although cultivars with high competitive potential have been identified amongst cereal crops, competitiveness has not traditionally been considered a priority for breeding or farmer cultivar choice. The challenge of managing herbicide-resistant weed populations has, however, renewed interest in cultural weed control options, including competitive cultivars. We evaluated the current understanding of the traits that explain variability in competitive ability between cultivars, the relationship between suppression of weed neighbours and tolerance of their presence and the existence of trade-offs between competitive ability and yield in weed-free scenarios. A large number of relationships between competitive ability and plant traits have been reported in the literature, including plant height, speed of development, canopy architecture and partitioning of resources. There is uncertainty over the relationship between suppressive ability and tolerance, although tolerance is a less stable trait over seasons and locations. To realise the potential of competitive crop cultivars as a tool in IWM, a quick and simple-to-use protocol for assessing the competitive potential of new cultivars is required; it is likely that this will not be based on a single trait, but will need to capture the combined effect of multiple traits. A way needs to be found to make this information accessible to farmers, so that competitive cultivars can be better integrated into their weed control programmes.

The impact of agricultural intensification and land-use change on the European arable flora.

The impact of crop management and agricultural land use on the threat status of plants adapted to arable habitats was analysed using data from Red Lists of vascular plants assessed by national experts from 29 European countries. There was a positive relationship between national wheat yields and the numbers of rare, threatened or recently extinct arable plant species in each country. Variance in the relative proportions of species in different threat categories was significantly explained using a combination of fertilizer and herbicide use, with a greater percentage of the variance partitioned to fertilizers. Specialist species adapted to individual crops, such as flax, are among the most threatened. These species have declined across Europe in response to a reduction in the area grown for the crops on which they rely. The increased use of agro-chemicals, especially in central and northwestern Europe, has selected against a larger group of species adapted to habitats with intermediate fertility. There is an urgent need to implement successful conservation strategies to arrest the decline of this functionally distinct and increasingly threatened component of the European flora.

Modelling seedling growth rates of 18 temperate arable weed species as a function of the environment and plant traits.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The early growth rate of seedlings in the exponential phase is an important eco- physiological trait in crop/weed competition models based on assessments of relative weed green area. An understanding of the role of various plant traits in determining early growth rate may also be useful for identifying contrasting weed strategies for establishment before canopy closure. METHODS: The response of seedling relative growth rate (RGR) to the environment was measured in outdoor sand beds in the autumn and the spring for 18 temperate annual weed species and two crops. Seedling growth was modelled using thermal time and effective day-degrees (combining the effect of temperature and radiation). The contribution of various plant traits in determining variability in RGR was investigated using regression analysis. KEY RESULTS: The effective day-degree model was more effective for describing early weed growth than thermal time. Variability in RGR measured in the autumn was largely determined by differences between the species in net assimilation rate (NAR), whereas in the spring leaf area ratio (LAR) played a larger part. There were differences between the broadleaf and grass species in the relative contribution of NAR and LAR to RGR in both seasons. RGR in the spring was negatively correlated with initial seedling size. CONCLUSIONS: The parameters derived in this study can be used to calibrate empirical models of crop yield loss based on relative weed green area to different growing seasons and assessment dates. The grass weeds, which tended to have large seeds, had a higher investment in roots in the seedling stage, potentially making them more competitive later in the season when resources become limiting.