Patterns in body mass distributions: sifting among alternative hypotheses.

Understanding how animals interact with their environment is critical for evaluating, mitigating and coping with anthropogenic alteration of Earth's biosphere. Researchers have attempted to understand some aspects of these interactions by examining patterns in animal body mass distributions. Energetic, phylogenetic, biogeographical, textural discontinuity and community interaction hypotheses have been advanced to explain observed patterns. Energetic and textural discontinuity hypotheses focus upon the allometry of resource use. The community interaction hypothesis contends that biotic interactions within assemblages of species are of primary importance. Biogeographical and phylogenetic hypotheses focus on the role of constraints on the organization of communities. This paper examines and organizes these various propositions about species body mass distributions and discusses the multiple competing hypotheses, how their predictions vary, and possible methods by which the hypotheses can be distinguished and tested. Each of the hypotheses is partial, and explains some elements of pattern in body mass distributions. The scale of appropriate application, relevance and interpretation varies among the hypotheses, and the mechanisms underlying observed patterns are likely to be multicausal and vary with scale.

A predictive approach to nutrient criteria.

Violation of a water quality standard triggers the need for a total maximum daily load (TMDL); this should result in actions that improve water quality, but sometimes at significant cost. If the standard is well-conceived, a designated-use statement characterizes societal values, and a criterion provides a measurable surrogate for designated use. This latter provision means that scientists measure the criterion and view violations of the criterion as equivalent to noncompliance with the designated use. However, if a criterion is not a good indicator of designated use, it is apt to result in misallocation of the limited resources for water quality improvement through the TMDL process. This concern provides the basis for our assessment of the national nutrient criteria strategy recently proposed by the U.S. EPA. We acquired data sets for four case studies (Lake Washington, Neuse River Estuary, San Francisco Bay, and Lake Mendota) and then used expert elicitation to quantify designated-use attainment for each case. Applying structural equation modeling, we identified good water quality criteria as the best predictors of the designated use elicited response variable. Further, we used the model to relate the level (concentration) of each criterion to the probability of compliance with the designated use; this provides decision-makers with an estimate of risk associated with the criterion level, facilitating the selection of appropriate water quality criteria.

PCB congeners in Lake Michigan coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) salmon.

We determined PCB congener concentrations in coho and chinook salmon collected in two Lake Michigan tributaries during the fall of 1996. Chinook salmon were larger than coho salmon and contained higher concentrations of the 78 PCB congeners we detected. There were no differences between male and female chinook or coho salmon in size or their PCB concentrations. Among individual fish, we found little evidence for a relationship between congener concentrations and percent lipid; however, congener concentrations did show a generally positive relationship with salmon size. Fish and macroinvertebrate congener concentrations are clearly related, and PCB congeners biomagnify approximately 20-30-fold as they flow from macroinvertebrates, two trophic levels below salmon, to the salmon. Slopes of regressions of salmonid congener concentrations on macroinvertebrate congener concentrations within homologs indicated that the degree of biomagnification generally increased with the degree of congener chlorination, although this pattern was much stronger for Mysis than for Diporeia. Log Kow and categorical variables for coplanar and "toxic" PCBs were not significant additional model terms, indicating that bioaccumulation of PCB congeners was not statistically related to these physicochemical attributes of the PCBs. The distribution of homologue PCBs shifts from a distinct predominance of hexachlorobiphenyls in macroinvertebrates to pentachlorobiphenyls and hexachlorobiphenyls in the salmon.

Long-term changes in watershed nutrient inputs and riverine exports in the Neuse River, North Carolina.

We compared patterns of historical watershed nutrient inputs with in-river nutrient loads for the Neuse River, NC. Basin-wide sources of both nitrogen and phosphorus have increased substantially during the past century, marked by a sharp increase in the last 10 years resulting from an intensification of animal production. However, this recent increase is not reflected in changes in river loading over the last 20 years. Temporal patterns in river loads more closely parallel short-term changes in point sources and cropland nutrient application despite their overall lower magnitude. Total phosphorus loads have declined at all stations considered, corresponding to a 1988 phosphate detergent ban. Nitrogen load temporal patterns vary by location and the nitrogen fraction considered. The furthest upstream station exhibited nitrogen decreases after the completion of a dam in 1983. At a station just downstream of a rapidly growing urban area, the total nitrogen load has increased since the mid-1980s, primarily as a nitrate concentration increase. This is consistent with concurrent increases in chemical fertilizer use and point source discharges, as well as increased nitrification at treatment plants. This increase in nitrate loading is not reflected at the most downstream station, where no clear nitrogen trends are discernable. The lack of clear downstream nutrient increases suggests that current water quality impairment in the lower river and estuary may result from chronic nutrient overload rather than recent changes in the watershed. If this is true, then the impact of a planned 30% nitrogen loading reduction may not be immediately apparent. We calculate that, given annual variability, detecting a load reduction of this magnitude will take at least four years, and, should nutrients accumulated in the watershed become a significant source, detecting the resulting ecological improvements is likely to take substantially longer.