Think globally, act locally: the role of local demographics and vaccination coverage in the dynamic response of measles infection to control.

The global reduction of the burden of morbidity and mortality owing to measles has been a major triumph of public health. However, the continued persistence of measles infection probably not only reflects local variation in progress towards vaccination target goals, but may also reflect local variation in dynamic processes of transmission, susceptible replenishment through births and stochastic local extinction. Dynamic models predict that vaccination should increase the mean age of infection and increase inter-annual variability in incidence. Through a comparative approach, we assess national-level patterns in the mean age of infection and measles persistence. We find that while the classic predictions do hold in general, the impact of vaccination on the age distribution of cases and stochastic fadeout are mediated by local birth rate. Thus, broad-scale vaccine coverage goals are unlikely to have the same impact on the interruption of measles transmission in all demographic settings. Indeed, these results suggest that the achievement of further measles reduction or elimination goals is likely to require programmatic and vaccine coverage goals that are tailored to local demographic conditions.

Progress toward control of rubella and prevention of congenital rubella syndrome--worldwide, 2009.

Rubella, usually a mild rash illness in children and adults, can cause serious consequences when a pregnant woman is infected, particularly in early pregnancy. These serious consequences include miscarriage, fetal death or an infant born with birth defects (i.e., congenital rubella syndrome (CRS)). The primary purpose for rubella vaccination is the prevention of congenital rubella infection including CRS. Since 1969, several rubella virus vaccines have been licensed for use; however, until the 1990s, use of rubella-containing vaccine (RCV) was limited primarily to developed countries. In 1996, it was estimated that 110,000 infants with CRS were born annually in developing countries. In 2000, the first World Health Organization rubella vaccine position paper was published to guide introduction of RCV in national childhood immunization schedules. From 1996 to 2009, the number of countries that introduced RCV into their national routine childhood immunization programs increased by 57% from 83 countries in 1996 to 130 countries in 2009. In addition, three of the six WHO regions established rubella control and CRS prevention goals: Region of the Americas and Europe rubella elimination by 2010 and 2015, respectively, and Western Pacific Region-accelerated rubella control and CRS prevention by 2015. Also, during this time period, the number of rubella cases reported decreased from 670,894 in 2000 to 121,344 in 2009. Rubella control and prevention of CRS can be accelerated by integrating with current global measles mortality reduction and regional elimination activities.

Public-health impact of accelerated measles control in the WHO African Region 2000-03.

BACKGROUND: In 2000, the WHO African Region adopted a plan to accelerate efforts to lower measles mortality with the goal of decreasing the number of measles deaths to near zero. By June, 2003, 19 African countries had completed measles supplemental immunisation activities (SIA) in children aged 9 months to 14 years as part of a comprehensive measles-control strategy. We assessed the public-health impact of these control measures by use of available surveillance data. METHODS: We calculated percentage decline in reported measles cases during 1-2 years after SIA, compared with 6 years before SIA. On the basis of data from 13 of the 19 countries, we assumed that the percentage decline in measles deaths equalled that in measles cases. We also examined data on routine and SIA measles vaccine coverage, measles case-based surveillance, and suspected measles outbreaks. FINDINGS: Between 2000 and June, 2003, 82.1 million children were targeted for vaccination during initial SIA in 12 countries and follow-up SIA in seven countries. The average decline in the number of reported measles cases was 91%. In 17 of the 19 countries, measles case-based surveillance confirmed that transmission of measles virus, and therefore measles deaths, had been reduced to low or very low rates. The total estimated number of deaths averted in the year 2003 was 90,043. Between 2000 and 2003 in the African Region as a whole, we estimated that the percentage decline in annual measles deaths was around 20% (90,043 of 454,000). INTERPRETATION: The burden of measles in sub-Saharan Africa can be reduced to very low levels by means of appropriate strategies, resources, and personnel.

Population-based incidence of pertussis among adolescents and adults, Minnesota, 1995-1996.

To estimate the incidence of pertussis, a prospective study was done among members of a managed care organization in Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota. Of 212 patients 10-49 years old enrolled from January 1995 through December 1996, 8 were found to be culture positive, 10 were found to be positive by polymerase chain reaction assay, 13 had a > or =2-fold increase in IgG or IgA to pertussis toxin (PT), and 18 had IgG to PT in a single serum specimen > or =3 SD above the mean of an age-matched control group. At least 1 positive laboratory test result for pertussis infection was found in 27 (13%) patients, among whom the duration of cough illness was a median of 42 days (range, 27-66 days). On the basis of any positive laboratory result, the estimated annual incidence of pertussis was 507 cases per 100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval, 307-706 cases). Bordetella pertussis infection may be a more common cause of cough illness among adolescents and adults than was recognized previously.

Molecular epidemiology of Bordetella pertussis by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis profile: Cincinnati, 1989-1996.

Reported cases of pertussis have increased in the United States, with peaks occurring every few years. Bordetella pertussis isolates collected in Cincinnati from 1989 to 1996 were analyzed with pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), to evaluate trends. Among 496 isolates, 30 PFGE profiles were identified; 32% were CYXXI-010, the profile that predominated each year. Eighteen profiles (198 strains) were identified in 1989-1992, 20 profiles (197 strains) were identified during the 1993 epidemic, and 11 profiles (101 strains) were identified in 1994-1996. From 1989 to 1996, among 42 patients, isolates from household members in 17 (89%) of 19 households had concordant PFGE profiles. There was no association between PFGE profile and seasonality, age, and hospitalization or pneumonia in infants <1 year old. The 1993 epidemic was associated primarily with an increased prevalence of PFGE profiles that circulated before and after 1993, which suggests that the epidemic was due to factors other than the emergence of a novel B. pertussis strain.

Measles eradication: is it in our future?

Measles eradication would avert the current annual 1 million deaths and save the $1.5 billion in treatment and prevention costs due to measles in perpetuity. The authors evaluate the biological feasibility of eradicating measles according to 4 criteria: (1) the role of humans in maintaining transmission, (2) the availability of accurate diagnostic tests, (3) the existence of effective vaccines, and (4) the need to demonstrate elimination of measles from a large geographic area. Recent successes in interrupting measles transmission in the United States, most other countries in the Western Hemisphere, and selected countries in other regions provide evidence for the feasibility of global eradication. Potential impediments to eradication include (1) lack of political will in some industrialized countries, (2) transmission among adults, (3) increasing urbanization and population density, (4) the HIV epidemic, (5) waning immunity and the possibility of transmission from subclinical cases, and (6) risk of unsafe injections. Despite these challenges, a compelling case can be made in favor of measles eradication, and the authors believe that it is in our future. The question is when.

Molecular epidemiology of Bordetella pertussis by DNA fingerprinting with pulsed-filled gel electrophoresis, 1989-1996

Pertussis is an endemic disease in the United States of America, with epidemics occurring every three to four years. In Cincinnati, Bordetella pertussis isolates collected from 1989 to 1996 were analysed by genomic subtyping with pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) to evaluate the B pertussis population before, during and after a large epidemic of epidemiologically relevant changes. Among the 496 B pertussis isolates, 31 PFGE profiles were identified; 32 percent of isolates were CYXXI-010 and this profile predominated in each year. Nineteen, 20 and 12 PFGE profiles were identified in the pre-epidemic period (n=198), during the epidemic (n = 197) and in the post-epidemic period (n = 101), resulting in genotypic diversities of 0.82, 0.83 and 0.76 respectively. From 1989 to 1996, among 19 households clusters of 42 patients, 17 (89 percent) households had concordant PFGE profiles among isolates from household members. There was no association between PFGE type and seasonality, age, hospitalisation or pneumonia in infants. The 1993 epidemic was primarily associated with increased prevalence of B pertussis PFGE profiles that circulated before and after the epidemic, suggesting increased susceptibility to pertussis rather than a novel strain as a cause of the outbreak.(Au)

Epidemiology of diphtheria in South Dakota.

Respiratory diphtheria was one of the most common causes of death among children in the pre-vaccine era. Since the introduction of diphtheria toxoid vaccine in 1920s, and its widespread use by the late 1940s, diphtheria became increasingly rare in the United States. However, through the 1970s diphtheria remained endemic in some states, with reported incidence rates > 1.0 per million population in six states (Alaska, Arizona, Montana, New Mexico, South Dakota, and Washington). Starting in 1980, less than five cases have been reported each year in the United States. The majority of culture-confirmed cases have been associated with importation from other countries. Toxigenic Corynebacterium diphtheriae, the organism causing diphtheria, was thought to have become rare or even have disappeared from previously endemic areas such as South Dakota. However, during four months in 1996, 11 persons (one index case, six patients and four household contacts) in an American Indian community in South Dakota were found to be infected by C. diphtheriae; six of these isolates were toxigenic. The findings in this report indicate that despite 20 years without reported respiratory diphtheria cases, toxigenic C. diphtheriae is still present in South Dakota. The continuous circulation of toxigenic strains of C. diphtheriae emphasizes the need for health care providers throughout South Dakota to promote timely vaccination against diphtheria among persons of all ages and ethnic groups, to be aware of the clinical signs and symptoms of diphtheria so that cases can be promptly diagnosed and treated, and further public health measures can be taken to contain this serious disease.

Economic evaluation of use of diphtheria, tetanus, and acellular pertussis vaccine or diphtheria, tetanus, and whole-cell pertussis vaccine in the United States, 1997.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the economic costs and benefits associated with using either diphtheria and tetanus toxoids and acellular pertussis vaccine (DTaP) or diphtheria and tetanus toxoids and whole-cell pertussis vaccine (DTwP) in the United States in 1997. DESIGN: Standard cost-benefit analysis, from both the societal and health care system perspectives, was performed for each combination vaccine as well as for the pertussis components singly. SETTING: A simulated cohort of 4.1 million children from birth to age 15 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Net costs (savings) and benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) RESULTS: Without a vaccination program, diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis disease caused more than 3 million cases and more than 28,000 deaths, at a cost of $23.6 billion. From the societal perspective, net savings because of the use of DTaP and DTwP were $22.510 million and $22.623 million, respectively. The net savings from the acellular pertussis component and the whole-cell pertussis component only were $4.362 million and $4.474 million, respectively. Benefit-cost ratios for DTaP from a societal and health care system perspective were 27:1 and 9:1, respectively. Sensitivity analyses of key variables did not result in appreciable changes in results. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with no program, vaccination with DTaP or DTwP resulted in substantial savings, regardless of the perspective taken and for all sensitivity analyses conducted. Compared with DTwP, use of DTaP generated a small cost increase that might be offset by the value of other factors, such as increased confidence in pertussis vaccination resulting from reduced adverse events. Arch Pediatr Adolesc Med. 2000;154:797-803

Factors determining prevalence of maternal antibody to measles virus throughout infancy: a review.

The effectiveness of vaccination against measles, the leading cause of vaccine-preventable deaths in infants globally, is greatly impacted by the level of maternal antibody to measles virus (or "measles maternal antibody"; MMA) during infancy. Variation in the prevalence of maternal antibody to measles virus between infant populations across countries and sociodemographic strata is poorly understood. We reviewed the literature on the prevalence of MMA, focusing on 3 principal determinants: starting level of maternal antibody, placental transfer of maternal antibody, and rate of decay of maternal antibody after birth. Our review identified placental transfer as an important determinant, with greater efficiency found in studies performed in developed countries. Placental transfer was influenced by gestational age, human immunodeficiency virus infection, and malaria. Antibody levels in mothers varied widely between countries, although predictably according to vaccination status within populations. Rates of antibody decay across studies were similar. Future studies should evaluate the utility of the cord blood level of MMA as a predictor of vaccine efficacy in infancy; inclusion of World Health Organization international reference sera will facilitate comparisons. Greater understanding of the determinants of the prevalence of MMA will help national policy makers determine the appropriate age for measles vaccination.

Successful control of epidemic diphtheria in the states of the Former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics: lessons learned.

Epidemic diphtheria reemerged in the Russian Federation in 1990 and spread to all Newly Independent States (NIS) and Baltic States by the end of 1994. Factors contributing to the epidemic included increased susceptibility of both children and adults, socioeconomic instability, population movement, deteriorating health infrastructure, initial shortages of vaccine, and delays in implementing control measures. In 1995, aggressive control strategies were implemented, and since then, all affected countries have reported decreases of diphtheria; however, continued efforts by national health authorities and international assistance are still needed. The legacy of this epidemic includes a reexamination of the global diphtheria control strategy, new laboratory techniques for diphtheria diagnosis and analysis, and a model for future public health emergencies in the successful collaboration of multiple international partners. The reemergence of diphtheria warns of an immediate threat of other epidemics in the NIS and Baltic States and a longer-term potential for the reemergence of vaccine-preventable diseases elsewhere. Continued investment in improved vaccines, control strategies, training, and laboratory techniques is needed.

Epidemic diphtheria in the Kyrgyz Republic, 1994-1998.

The Kyrgyz Republic experienced a widespread diphtheria epidemic during 1994-1998. National diphtheria surveillance and vaccination coverage information were used to describe the course of the epidemic. The epidemic began in August 1994, reached a peak in 1995 with 704 cases (incidence rate: 15.4/100,000 population) and 30 deaths, and declined to an incidence rate of 4.0/100,000 during the first 8 months of 1998. Age-specific incidence was highest in 1995 among persons 15-19 and 20-29 years old. Three rounds of mass vaccination with tetanus and diphtheria toxoids for adult use (Td) were conducted; reported coverage was 69% in 1995 and >95% in 1996 and 1997. Reported routine vaccination coverage with three doses of diphtheria toxoid by age 12 months increased from 62% in 1989 to 98% in 1997. Mass vaccination of the adult population with Td and improvements in childhood vaccination coverage played a major role in controlling the epidemic.

Clinical characteristics and management of 676 hospitalized diphtheria cases, Kyrgyz Republic, 1995.

The Kyrgyz Republic experienced a widespread resurgence of diphtheria during 1994-1998. To describe the clinical characteristics and management of diphtheria patients hospitalized in 1995, a retrospective chart review was conducted. Physician-diagnosed cases of diphtheria were classified according to the system recommended by the World Health Organization and UNICEF. Among 676 patients hospitalized with respiratory diphtheria, 163 (24%) were carriers, 186 (28%) had tonsillar forms, 78 (12%) had combined types or delayed diagnosis, and 201 (30%) had severe forms of diphtheria. The highest age-specific incidence rates occurred among persons 15-34 years old, and 70% of cases were among those >/=15 years of age. Myocarditis occurred among 151 patients (22%), and 19 patients died (case fatality ratio: 3%). Diphtheria antitoxin was administered to 507 patients (75%), and all patients received antibiotics (penicillin or erythromycin). Respiratory diphtheria remains a potentially fatal disease, commonly presenting with a typical membranous pharyngitis. Early diagnosis and treatment of cases with diphtheria antitoxin and antibiotics are the cornerstones of effective treatment.

Risk factors for diphtheria: a prospective case-control study in the Republic of Georgia, 1995-1996.

The large-scale resurgence of diphtheria in the former Soviet Union offered a unique opportunity to evaluate risk factors for the transmission of respiratory diphtheria; therefore, a prospective case-control study was done in the republic of Georgia. In total, 218 diphtheria cases (hospitalized between October 1995 and March 1996) and 408 matched controls participated. One hundred cases (45%) were /=15 years of age (range: <1 to 75 years). In the multivariate analyses, the following risk factors were found to be significant: lack of vaccination (matched odds ratio [mOR]=19.2), household exposure to diphtheria (mOR=7.4), exposure to skin lesions (mOR=5.8), history of eczema (mOR=3.4), fever with myalgia prior to illness (mOR=2.6), having tonsils (mOR=4.4), sharing a bed (mOR=1.9), sharing cups and glasses (mOR=2.7), and taking a bath less than once a week (mOR=2.6). These findings emphasize primary prevention through immunizations, secondary prevention following exposure to diphtheria (and to suspicious skin lesions), and adherence to strict standards of personal hygiene.