UK-trained junior doctors' intentions to work in UK medicine: questionnaire surveys, three years after graduation.

Objective To report on the career intentions, three years after qualification, of 12 national cohorts of UK-trained doctors who qualified between 1974 and 2012, and, specifically, to compare recent UK medical graduates' intentions to work in medicine in the UK with earlier graduates. Design Questionnaire surveys of cohorts of UK medical graduates defined by year of graduation. Setting UK. Participants 30,272 UK medical graduates. Main outcome measures Stated level of intention to pursue a long-term career in medicine in the UK. Results The response rate was 62% (30,272/48,927). We examined responses to the question ' Apart from temporary visits abroad, do you intend to practise medicine in the United Kingdom for the foreseeable future?' Of doctors from UK homes, 90% had specified that they would 'definitely or probably' practise medicine in the UK in the surveys of 1977-1986, 81% in 1996-2011 and 64% in 2015. Those who said that they would probably or definitely not practise medicine in the UK comprised 5% in 1977-1986, 8% in 1996-2011 and 15% in 2015. Most who were not definite about a future career in UK medicine indicated that they would wish to practise medicine outside the UK rather than to leave medicine. Conclusions The wish to remain in UK medical practice in the 2015 survey was unprecedentedly low in this unique series of 40 years of surveys.

Doctors' enjoyment of their work and satisfaction with time available for leisure: UK time trend questionnaire-based study.

INTRODUCTION: Doctors' job satisfaction is important to the health service to ensure commitment, effective training, service provision and retention. Job satisfaction matters to doctors for their personal happiness, fulfilment, service to patients and duty to employers. Monitoring job satisfaction trends informs workforce planning. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We surveyed UK-trained doctors up to 5 years after graduation for six graduation year cohorts: 1996, 1999, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2012. Doctors scored their job enjoyment (Enjoyment) and satisfaction with time outside work (Leisure) on a scale from 1 (lowest enjoyment/satisfaction) to 10 (highest). RESULTS: Overall, 47% had a high level of Enjoyment (scores 8-10) 1 year after graduation and 56% after 5 years. For Leisure, the corresponding figures were 19% and 37% at 1 and 5 years, respectively. For Leisure at 1 year, high scores were given by about 10% in the 1990s, rising to about 25% in the mid-2000s. Low scores (1-3) for Enjoyment were given by 15% of qualifiers of 1996, falling to 5% by 2008; corresponding figures for Leisure were 42% and 19%. At 5 years, the corresponding figures were 6% and 4%, and 23% and 17%. Enjoyment and Leisure were scored higher by general practitioners than doctors in other specialties. Both measures varied little by sex, ethnicity or medical school attended. CONCLUSIONS: Scores for Enjoyment were generally high; those for Leisure were lower. Policy initiatives should address why this aspect of satisfaction is low, particularly in the first year after graduation but also among hospital doctors 5 years after graduation.

UK doctors and equal opportunities in the NHS: national questionnaire surveys of views on gender, ethnicity and disability.

OBJECTIVES: To seek doctors' views about the NHS as an employer, our surveys about doctors' career intentions and progression, undertaken between 1999 and 2013, also asked whether the NHS was, in their view, a good 'equal opportunities' employer for women doctors, doctors from ethnic minority groups and doctors with disabilities. DESIGN AND SETTING: Surveys undertaken in the UK by mail and Internet. PARTICIPANTS: UK medical graduates in selected graduation years between 1993 and 2012. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Respondents were asked to rate their level of agreement with three statements starting 'The NHS is a good equal opportunities employer for…' and ending 'women doctors', 'doctors from ethnic minorities' and 'doctors with disabilities'. RESULTS: Of first-year doctors surveyed in 2013, 3.6% (78/2158) disagreed that the NHS is a good equal opportunities employer for women doctors (1.7% of the men and 4.7% of the women); 2.2% (44/1968) disagreed for doctors from ethnic minorities (0.9% of white doctors and 5.8% of non-white doctors) and 12.6% (175/1387) disagreed for doctors with disabilities. Favourable perceptions of the NHS in these respects improved substantially between 1999 and 2013; among first-year doctors of 2000-2003, combined, the corresponding percentages of disagreement were 23.5% for women doctors, 23.1% for doctors from ethnic minorities and 50.6% for doctors with disabilities. CONCLUSIONS: Positive views about the NHS as an equal opportunities employer have increased in recent years, but the remaining gap in perception of this between women and men, and between ethnic minority and white doctors, is a concern.

Trends in junior doctors' certainty about their career choice of eventual clinical specialty: UK surveys.

INTRODUCTION: The paper explores whether UK qualified junior doctors' certainty about their choice of eventual clinical specialty has changed in recent years following structural changes to postgraduate training. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analysed data from questionnaire surveys of all doctors who qualified in the UK in 11 'year of qualification' cohorts between 1974 and 2009. We report on responses to questions at years 1, 3 and 5 after qualifying. RESULTS: Overall, 1 year after qualification, 28.6% (6576/23018) of doctors specified that they were certain about their choice of future specialty, 47.7% specified that their choice was probable and 23.7% were uncertain about it. By year 3 after qualification, 88% of doctors specified that their current specialty choice was definitely or probably their final choice, as did 95% in year 5. Levels of certainty in year 1 showed little change across the cohorts who qualified between 1974 and 2002 (average 28% 'definite'), dropped in the 2005 cohort and then increased to 38% in the qualifiers of 2008 and 2009. Similar changes occurred in years 3 and 5 among doctors surveyed after 2005. There was large variation in certainty of choice by specialty chosen but no important difference between men and women. CONCLUSIONS: Levels of confidence about early choice of specialty are now higher than they were prior to the 2005 changes to postgraduate training.

Views of UK-trained medical graduates of 1999-2009 about their first postgraduate year of training: national surveys.

BACKGROUND: In the UK, doctors' first year of medical work is also their first year of postgraduate training. It is very important that their experience of work and training is good. DESIGN: Surveys of entire cohorts graduating in particular years. SETTING: UK. METHOD: Questionnaires sent 1 year after qualification to all UK medical graduates of 1999, 2000, 2002, 2005, 2008 and 2009. RESULTS: The study comprised 17 831 respondents. Variation in views across cohorts was modest. Overall, 30% agreed their training had been of a high standard; 38% agreed educational opportunities had been good; 52% agreed they had to do too much routine non-medical work; and 16% agreed they had to perform clinical tasks for which they felt inadequately trained. Job enjoyment, rated from 1 ('I didn't enjoy it at all') to 10 ('I enjoyed it greatly'), improved from 70% of doctors in the 1999 cohort scoring 7-10 to 75% in the 2009 cohort. Satisfaction with available leisure time, rated from 1 ('not at all satisfied') to 10 ('extremely satisfied'), rose from 24% scoring 7-10 in the 1999s to 49% in the 2009s. Male-female differences were small. CONCLUSIONS: There was improvement over the decade in some aspects of work, particularly satisfaction with time off work for leisure, and overall enjoyment of the job. There was little change in doctors' views about the training experience offered by the F1 year.

Trends in prevalence of cerebral palsy in children born with a birthweight of 2,500 g or over in Europe from 1980 to 1998.

Time trends for cerebral palsy (CP) prevalence in children born > or =2,500 g vary across studies and scarce data exist on trends by subtype of CP. The objective of this study was to describe changes in prevalence of CP in infants born > or =2,500 g between 1980 and 1998 in Europe. Data were collated from the SCPE (Surveillance of Cerebral Palsy in Europe collaboration) common database. Poisson regression was used to test for change in prevalence over time. Birth year and register effects were explored and trends in prevalence were estimated by CP subtype and severity. Four thousand and two children with CP and birthweight > or =2,500 g were recorded in 15 population based-registers. The overall prevalence of CP was 1.16 per 1,000 live births (99% CI, 0.88-1.48) in 1980 and 0.99 (CI, 0.80-1.20) in 1998. The trend was not significant (P = .14), except in two registers. However, there were significant changes in the prevalence of spastic CP subtypes, with a decrease in the bilateral spastic form (P < .001), and an increase in the unilateral spastic form (P = .004). There was a concurrent reduction in neonatal mortality of children with birthweight > or =2,500 g: from 1.7 (CI, 1.4-2.1) to 0.9 (CI, 0.7-1.1) per 1,000 live births. In conclusion, for children born with birthweight > or =2,500 g, the prevalence of CP in Europe was stable in spite of changes by subtype and a significant decrease in neonatal mortality.

Socio-economic inequalities in cerebral palsy prevalence in the United Kingdom: a register-based study.

Evidence is unclear as to whether there is a socio-economic gradient in cerebral palsy (CP) prevalence beyond what would be expected from the socio-economic gradient for low birthweight, a strong risk factor for CP. We conducted a population-based study in five regions of the UK with CP registers, to investigate the relationship between CP prevalence and socio-economic deprivation, and how it varies by region, by birthweight and by severity and type of CP. The total study population was 1 657 569 livebirths, born between 1984 and 1997. Wards of residence were classified into five quintiles according to a census-based deprivation index, from Q1 (least deprived) to Q5 (most deprived). Socio-economic gradients were modelled by Poisson regression, and region-specific estimates combined by meta-analysis. The prevalence of postneonatally acquired CP was 0.14 per 1000 livebirths overall. The mean deprivation gradient, expressed as the relative risk in the most deprived vs. the least deprived quintile, was 1.86 (95% confidence interval [95% CI 1.19, 2.88]). The prevalence of non-acquired CP was 2.22 per 1000 livebirths. For non-acquired CP the gradient was 1.16 [95% CI 1.00, 1.35]. Evidence for a socio-economic gradient was strongest for spastic bilateral cases (1.32 [95% CI 1.09, 1.59]) and cases with severe intellectual impairment (1.59 [95% CI 1.06, 2.39]). There was evidence for differences in gradient between regions. The gradient of risk of CP among normal birthweight births was not statistically significant overall (1.21 [95% CI 0.95, 1.54]), but was significant in two regions. There was non-significant evidence of a reduction in gradients over time. The reduction of the higher rates of postneonatally acquired CP in the more socioeconomically deprived areas is a clear goal for prevention. While we found evidence for a socio-economic gradient for non-acquired CP of antenatal or perinatal origin, the picture was not consistent across regions, and there was some evidence of a decline in inequalities over time. The steeper gradients in some regions for normal birthweight cases and cases with severe intellectual impairment require further investigation.

Children with cerebral palsy: severity and trends over time.

Increasingly, more very-low-birthweight infants in the developed world are now expected to survive the neonatal period than was previously the case. There are concerns that there may be a related increase in the number of infants developing severe sensorimotor impairments. Pooled data from five registers contributing to the UK Network of Cerebral Palsy Registers, Surveys and Databases were used to identify patterns of motor impairment in relation to additional impairments and to birthweight, and to assess whether prevalence of cerebral palsy (CP) by birthweight and by severity of motor impairment had changed over time. Low-birthweight infants are at greater risk of developing CP than larger-birthweight babies. The CP rate amongst children with birthweights <2500 g was significantly higher at 16 per 1000 livebirths [95% confidence interval (CI) 14.9, 16.2] than 1.2 per 1000 livebirths [95% CI 11, 1.2] for normal-birthweight children. Despite being at greater risk of developing CP, smaller-birthweight babies are proportionately less likely to develop the most severe forms of motor impairment. Of those born weighing > or = 2500 g, 23% compared with 15% weighing <1000 g (P < 0.001) were in the most severely motor impaired group. Severe motor impairment is associated with higher levels of additional impairments. CP rates for each motor impairment group in the 1990s were similar to those in the late 1970s. Rates of CP among infants born below normal birthweight are high but have decreased over time. The CP rate for infants weighing 1000-1499 g at birth decreased from around 180 per 1000 livebirths in 1979 to around 50 per 1000 livebirths from the early 1990s onwards.

Validity and reliability of the guidelines of the surveillance of cerebral palsy in Europe for the classification of cerebral palsy.

The validity and reliability of the guidelines of the Surveillance of Cerebral Palsy in Europe (SCPE) for the classification of cerebral palsy (CP) were tested by administering 10 written case vignettes via an interactive web-based link to 30 SCPE partners. There was a moderately good level of agreement (kappa=0.59) about inclusion as a CP case on the SCPE database. Classification by CP subtype differed in two main areas: assigning spastic versus dyskinetic and judgement of distribution of spastic involvement. Agreement on Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) level was less good than reported in previous studies. Twenty respondents repeated the test 5 months later and there was good repeatability for case inclusion (kappa= 0.72) but considerable variation in assignment of CP subtype and GMFCS level. There is a need for further collaborative work and training to improve harmonization of the classification of CP, including examination, application of SCPE guidelines, and register coding.

Recent trends in visual impairment and blindness in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: To study recent trends in the cumulative incidence of visual impairment in childhood over a 15-year period and to assess progress against WHO goals for prevention. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Data from a population-based register of visual impairment in southern England were used to estimate cumulative incidence and trends in visual impairment (VI) and severe visual impairment/blindness (SVI/BL) for children born in 1984-1998. Causes were classified by anatomical site(s), timing of insult(s) and whether the visual impairment was potentially preventable or treatable. RESULTS: Of 691 eligible children, 358 (53%) had VI and 323 (47%) SVI/BL. The cumulative incidence of VI to age 12 years was 7.1 (95% CI 6.4 to 7.8) per 10,000 live births and for SVI/BL was 6.2 (95% CI 5.6 to 6.9); the incidence of both decreased significantly over time. There was an inverse relationship with gestational age and birth weight, although the risk of visual impairment associated with prematurity and low birth weight decreased substantially over time. 55% of children with VI and 77% with SVI/BL had other impairments; the proportion of associated impairments among children with VI decreased over time. 130 (19%) of the children have died, with over half dying before the age of 5. CONCLUSIONS: There is evidence of a temporal decline in the incidence of VI and SVI/BL in births from 1984 to 1998 especially in very preterm and low birthweight infants. Early childhood mortality was high. The causes of visual impairment in UK children are numerous, complex and often part of a wider picture of childhood disability.

Trends in cerebral palsy among infants of very low birthweight (<1500 g) or born prematurely (<32 weeks) in 16 European centres: a database study.

BACKGROUND: The risk of cerebral palsy, the commonest physical disability of children in western Europe, is higher in infants of very low birthweight (VLBW)--those born weighing less than 1500 g--and those from multiple pregnancies than in infants of normal birthweight. An increasing proportion of infants from both of these groups survive into childhood. This paper describes changes in the frequency and distribution of cerebral palsy by sex and neurological subtype in infants with a birthweight below 1000 g and 1000-1499 g in the period 1980-96. METHODS: A group of 16 European centres, Surveillance of Cerebral Palsy in Europe, agreed a standard definition of cerebral palsy and inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data for children with cerebral palsy born in the years 1980-96 were pooled. The data were analysed to describe the distribution and prevalence of cerebral palsy in VLBW infants. Prevalence trends were expressed as both per 1000 livebirths and per 1000 neonatal survivors. FINDINGS: There were 1575 VLBW infants born with cerebral palsy; 414 (26%) were of birthweight less than 1000 g and 317 (20%) were from multiple pregnancies. 1426 (94%) had spastic cerebral palsy, which was unilateral (hemiplegic) in 336 (24%). The birth prevalence fell from 60.6 (99%CI 37.8-91.4) per 1000 liveborn VLBW infants in 1980 to 39.5 (28.6-53.0) per 1000 VLBW infants in 1996. This decline was related to a reduction in the frequency of bilateral spastic cerebral palsy among infants of birthweight 1000-1499 g. The frequency of cerebral palsy was higher in male than female babies in the group of birthweight 1000-1499 g (61.0 [53.8-68..2] vs 49.5 [42.8-56.2] per 1000 livebirths; p=0.0025) but not in the group of birthweight below 1000 g. INTERPRETATION: These data from a large population base provide evidence that the prevalence of cerebral palsy in children of birthweight less than 1500 g has fallen, which has important implications for parents, health services, and society.

SCPE work, standardization and definition--an overview of the activities of SCPE: a collaboration of European CP registers.

The main aim of the Surveillance of Cerebral Palsy in Europe (SCPE) network was to develop a central database of cerebral palsy (CP) cases across Europe. Monitoring trends in prevalence rates of CP should contribute to collaborative studies on risk factors or quality of life for children living with CP. A multi-centre collaboration of CP registries used a clear definition of CP to accurately and consistently identify cases of CP. The rate of CP within the collaboration varied from 1.5 to 3 per 1000 live births. For the birth cohort 1980 to 1996 (n=9128), 53.9% of the CP children had a bilateral spastic CP, 31.0% had unilateral spastic CP, 6.6% were dyskinetic and 4.1% ataxic. Among CP children, 20.4% had a birth weight less than 1500 g and 25.5% were born before 32 weeks gestational age. Intellectual impairment corresponding to an IQ<50 was found in 29.5% of CP children. The proportion of CP children unable to walk, even with aids, was 30.3%. Twelve and a half percent of CP children were known to have a severe visual impairment. It was concluded that registers are the best means to implement epidemiological research into CP.

UKCP: a collaborative network of cerebral palsy registers in the United Kingdom.

Cerebral palsy (CP) is a relatively rare condition with enormous social and financial impact. Information about CP is not routinely collected in the United Kingdom. We have pooled non-identifiable data from the five currently active UK CP registers to form the UKCP database: birth years 1960-1997. This article describes the rationale behind this collaboration and the creation of the database. Data about 6910 children with CP are currently held. The mean annual prevalence rate was 2.1 [corrected] per 1000 live births for birth years 1986-1996. Where type is known, 91 per cent have spastic CP. Where data are available, nearly one-third of children have severely impaired lower limb function, and nearly a quarter have severely impaired upper limb function. As well as describing the range and complexity of motor and associated impairments, the pooled data from the UKCP database provide a platform for studies of aetiology, long-term outcomes, participation and service needs. The UKCP database is an important national resource for the surveillance of CP and the study of its epidemiology in the United Kingdom.

Cerebral palsy registries.

Cerebral palsy (CP) registers appear to be appropriate tools for answering questions regarding the prevalence and characteristics of this common childhood disability. Registers are population databases issuing from multiple sources, relying on a clear definition and inclusion and exclusion criteria of CP, and requiring a mix of skills with the collaboration of obstetricians, pediatricians, and epidemiologists. In Europe alone there are 18 different CP registers or population data collections on CP, and collaborative research efforts exist through a European network. Data collection on CP has also been done in Australia (register), the United States (surveys), and Canada (register). Beside monitoring trends, other public health contributions of CP registers might be to reduce the frequency of CP and to improve the quality of life of children with CP. CP registers are useful to clinicians by enabling them to identify subgroups of children requiring specific etiologic investigations, and also to provide more accurate information to the parents of children with CP.

Cerebral palsy rates among low-birthweight infants fell in the 1990s.

Using a population-based register, this study sought to ascertain changes in the rate and severity of cerebral palsy (CP) in a geographically defined area of the UK among infants weighing less than 1500 g and born between 1984 and 1995. There were 417414 live births in the area, which included Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Northamptonshire, and Oxfordshire. Of the 898 children with CP (526 males, 372 females), 194 (21.6%) weighed less than 1500 g at birth. The overall CP rate for neonatal survivors fell from 2.5 out of every 1000 in 1984 to 1986 to 1.7 in 1993 to 1995. The rate for those weighing less than 1000 g rose to 90 out of every 1000 neonatal survivors in 1987 to 1989 and then fell to 57 in 1993 to 1995. A similar pattern is seen among infants weighing 1000 to 1499 g at birth, the rate rising to 77 in 1987 to 1988 and then falling to 40 in 1993 to 1995. The rate of severe motor disability among infants weighing less than 1500 g also decreased (24.6 in 1984-1986 to 12.5 in 1993-1995). The relation of these findings to changes in perinatal care in the early 1990s is not known.