Social network strategy (SNS) for HIV testing: a new approach for identifying individuals with undiagnosed HIV infection in Tanzania.

Social network strategy (SNS) testing uses network connections to refer individuals at high risk to HIV testing services (HTS). In Tanzania, SNS testing is offered in communities and health facilities. In communities, SNS testing targets key and vulnerable populations (KVP), while in health facilities it complements index testing by reaching unelicited index contacts. Routine data were used to assess performance and trends over time in PEPFAR-supported sites between October 2021 and March 2023. Key indicators included SNS social contacts tested, and new HIV-positives individuals identified. Descriptive and statistical analysis were conducted. Univariable and multivariable analysis were applied, and variables with P-values <0.2 at univariable analysis were considered for multivariable analysis. Overall, 121,739 SNS contacts were tested, and 7731 (6.4%) previously undiagnosed individuals living with HIV were identified. Tested contacts and identified HIV-positives were mostly aged ≥15 years (>99.7%) and females (80.6% of tests, 79.4% of HIV-positives). Most SNS contacts were tested (78,363; 64.7%) and diagnosed (6376; 82.5%) in communities. SNS tests and HIV-positives grew 11.5 and 6.1-fold respectively, from October-December 2021 to January-March 2023, with majority of clients reached in communities vs. facilities (78,763 vs. 42,976). These results indicate that SNS testing is a promising HIV case-finding approach in Tanzania.

A multicenter study of venetoclax-based treatment for patients with Richter transformation of chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

ABSTRACT: Patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) who develop Richter transformation (RT) have a poor prognosis when treated with chemoimmunotherapy regimens used for de novo diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. Venetoclax, a BCL2 inhibitor, has single-agent efficacy in patients with RT and is potentially synergistic with chemoimmunotherapy. In this multicenter, retrospective study, we evaluated 62 patients with RT who received venetoclax-based treatment outside of a clinical trial, in combination with a Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitor (BTKi; n=28), rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, prednisone (R-CHOP) (n=13), or intensive chemoimmunotherapy other than R-CHOP (n=21). The best overall and complete response rates were 36%/25%, 54%/46%, and 52%/38%, respectively. The median progression-free and overall survival estimates for the same treatment groups were 4.9/14.3 months, 14.9 months/not reached, and 3.3/9 months, respectively. CLL with del(17p) was associated with a lower complete response rate in the total cohort (odds ratio [OR] 0.15; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.04-0.6; p=0.01) and venetoclax-naïve subgroup (OR 0.13; 95%CI 0.02-0.66; p=0.01). TP53 mutated CLL was associated with a lower complete response rate (OR 0.15; 95%CI 0.03-0.74; p=0.02) and shorter progression-free survival (hazard ratio 3.1; 95%CI 1.21-7.95; p=0.02) only in venetoclax-naïve subgroup. No other clinical or baseline characteristics, including prior venetoclax treatment for CLL, showed statistically significant association with outcomes. Grade 3-4 neutropenia and thrombocytopenia events were most frequent with intensive chemoimmunotherapy + venetoclax; grade 3-4 infection rates were similar across treatment groups. In this difficult-to-treat RT patient population, venetoclax-based combination regimens achieved high response rates, with durable remission and survival observed in a subset of patients.

Oral decitabine plus cedazuridine and venetoclax in patients with higher-risk myelodysplastic syndromes or chronic myelomonocytic leukaemia: a single-centre, phase 1/2 study.

BACKGROUND: Hypomethylating agents are approved in higher-riskmyelodysplastic syndromes. The combination of a hypomethylating agent with venetoclax is standard of care in acute myeloid leukaemia. We investigated the safety and activity of the first totally oral combination of decitabine plus cedazuridine and venetoclax in patients with higher-risk-myelodysplastic syndromes and chronic myelomonocytic leukaemia. METHODS: We did a single-centre, dose-escalation and dose-expansion, phase 1/2, clinical trial. Patients with treatment-naive higher-risk-myelodysplastic syndromes or chronic myelomonocytic leukaemia (risk level categorised as intermediate-2 or higher by the International Prognostic Scoring System) with excess blasts (>5%). Treatment consisted of oral decitabine 35 mg plus cedazuridine 100 mg on days 1-5 and venetoclax (variable doses of 100-400 mg, day 1 to 14, 28-day cycle). The primary outcomes were safety for the phase 1 part and the overall response for the phase 2 part of the study. The trial is ongoing and this analysis was not prespecified. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04655755, and is currently enrolling participants. FINDINGS: Between Jan 21, 2021, and Jan 20, 2023, we enrolled 39 patients (nine in phase 1 and 30 in phase 2). The median age was 71 years (range 27-94), 28 (72%) patients were male, and 11 (28%) were female. The maximum tolerated dose was not reached, and the recommended phase 2 dose was established as oral decitabine 35 mg plus cedazuridine 100 mg for 5 days and venetoclax (400 mg) for 14 days. The most common grade 3-4 adverse events were thrombocytopenia (33 [85%] of 39), neutropenia (29 [74%]), and febrile neutropenia (eight [21%]). Four non-treatment-related deaths occurred on the study drugs due to sepsis (n=2), lung infection (n=1), and undetermined cause (n=1). The median follow-up time was 10·8 months (IQR 5·6-16·4). The overall response rate was 95% (95% CI 83-99; 37/39). 19 (49%) patients proceeded to hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation. INTERPRETATION: This early analysis suggests that the combination of oral decitabine plus cedazuridine with venetoclax for higher-risk-myelodysplastic syndromes and chronic myelomonocytic leukaemia is safe in most patients, with encouraging activity. Longer follow-up will be needed to confirm these data. FUNDING: MD Anderson Cancer Center, MDS/AML Moon Shot, Genentech/AbbVie, and Astex Pharmaceuticals.

Schistosomiasis Seroprevalence among Children Aged 0-14 Years in Nigeria, 2018.

The first nationally representative, population-based study of schistosomiasis seroprevalence in Nigeria was conducted using blood samples and risk-factor data collected during the 2018 Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS). Schistosomiasis seroprevalence was estimated by analyzing samples for reactivity to schistosome soluble egg antigen (SEA) in a multiplex bead assay; NAIIS survey data were assessed to identify potential risk factors for seropositivity. The SEA antibody data were available for 31,459 children aged 0 to 14 years. Overall seroprevalence was 17.2% (95% CI: 16.3-18.1%). Seropositive children were identified in every age group, including children < 5 years, and seroprevalence increased with increasing age (P < 0.0001). Several factors were associated with increased odds of seropositivity, including being a boy (odds ratio [OR] = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.24-1.45), living in a rural area (OR = 2.2, 95% CI: 1.9-2.5), and animal ownership (OR = 1.67, 95% CI: 1.52-1.85). Access to improved sanitation and drinking water sources were associated with decreased odds of seropositivity (OR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.47-0.58 and OR = 0.53, 95% CI: 0.47-0.60, respectively) regardless of whether the child lived in a rural (sanitation: adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.7, 95% CI: 0.6-0.8; drinking water: aOR = 0.7, 95% CI: 0.6-0.8) or urban area (sanitation: aOR = 0.6, 95% CI: 0.5-0.7; drinking water: aOR = 0.5, 95% CI: 0.4-0.6), highlighting the importance of these factors for schistosomiasis prevention and control. These results identified additional risk populations (children < 5 years) and a new risk factor (animal ownership) and could be used to monitor the impact of control programs.

From Paper Files to Web-Based Application for Data-Driven Monitoring of HIV Programs: Nigeria's Journey to a National Data Repository for Decision-Making and Patient Care.

BACKGROUND: Timely and reliable data are crucial for clinical, epidemiologic, and program management decision making. Electronic health information systems provide platforms for managing large longitudinal patient records. Nigeria implemented the National Data Repository (NDR) to create a central data warehouse of all people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) while providing useful functionalities to aid decision making at different levels of program implementation. OBJECTIVE: We describe the Nigeria NDR and its development process, including its use for surveillance, research, and national HIV program monitoring toward achieving HIV epidemic control. METHODS: Stakeholder engagement meetings were held in 2013 to gather information on data elements and vocabulary standards for reporting patient-level information, technical infrastructure, human capacity requirements, and information flow. Findings from these meetings guided the development of the NDR. An implementation guide provided common terminologies and data reporting structures for data exchange between the NDR and the electronic medical record (EMR) systems. Data from the EMR were encoded in extensible markup language and sent to the NDR over secure hypertext transfer protocol after going through a series of validation processes. RESULTS: By June 30, 2021, the NDR had up-to-date records of 1,477,064 (94.4%) patients receiving HIV treatment across 1,985 health facilities, of which 1,266,512 (85.7%) patient records had fingerprint template data to support unique patient identification and record linkage to prevent registration of the same patient under different identities. Data from the NDR was used to support HIV program monitoring, case-based surveillance and production of products like the monthly lists of patients who have treatment interruptions and dashboards for monitoring HIV test and start. CONCLUSION: The NDR enabled the availability of reliable and timely data for surveillance, research, and HIV program monitoring to guide program improvements to accelerate progress toward epidemic control.

Factors associated with viral suppression among adults living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in Nigeria: Analysis of a population-based survey, 2018.

OBJECTIVE: Viral load suppression (VLS) is critical in reducing morbidity and mortality associated with HIV as well as minimizing the likelihood of HIV transmission to uninfected persons. The objective of this study was to identify factors associated with VLS among people living with HIV (PLWH) on antiretroviral (ARV) therapy to inform HIV programme strategies in Nigeria. METHODS: Adult participants, aged 15-64 years, from the 2018 Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS), who self-reported to be a PLWH or had detectable ARVs, were analysed to examine factors associated with VLS defined as HIV RNA <1000 copies/mL. NAIIS measured HIV prevalence, viral load, ARV and hepatitis B in PLWH. Logistic regression models were used and reported weighted prevalence. RESULTS: Of 1322 participants, 949 (68.25%) were women and 1287 (96.82%) had detectable ARVs. The median age was 39.31 [interquartile range (IQR): 31.47-47.63] years. Prevalence of VLS was 80.88%. Compared with participants with detectable ARVs, those with undetectable ARVs in their blood specimens had lower odds of VLS [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.24, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.08-0.64). Coinfection with hepatitis B and nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor metabolites were also associated with lower odds of VLS. Older people (45-54 vs 15-24 years) had increased odds of VLS (aOR = 2.81, 95% CI: 1.14-6.90). CONCLUSION: Young people and those with undetectable ARVs had lower odds of virological suppression. Targeted interventions focusing on young people and adherence to medication are needed to achieve the UNAIDS 95-95-95 goals for HIV epidemic control.

Efficacy analysis of different FLT3 inhibitors in patients with relapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukemia and high-risk myelodysplastic syndrome.

Several FLT3 inhibitors(i) are available to treat relapsed/refractory (R/R) FLT3-internal tandem duplicated acute myeloid leukemia (AML). This study analyzes the efficacies of various FLT3i (types 1 and 2) tested in clinical trials in treating R/R AML and high-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (HR-MDS). PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched for single/double-arm phase I/II/III R/R AML or HR-MDS clinical trials published between 1/1/2000 and 6/1/2021. The outcomes studied were composite response rate (CRc) and overall response rate (ORR). Toxicities were compared based on the organ system. The 28 studies analyzed had 1927 patients. The pooled ORR and (CRc) for all FLT3i were 53% (95% CI, 43%-63%) and 34% (95% CI, 26%-44%). Pooled ORR and CRc were 37% (95% CI, 25%-51%) and 35% (95% CI, 21%-52%) for type 1 and 58% (95% CI, 43%-71%) and 38% (95% CI, 27%-50%) for type 2, respectively. Gastrointestinal (GI) and hematological toxicity occurred in 22% (95% CI, 19%-25.4%) and 74.6% (95% CI, 70%-79%) with type 1 and 13.9% (95% CI, 12%-16%) and 57.7% (95% CI, 54.6%-60.8%) with type 2 FLT3i. QTc prolongation occurred in 2.06% (95% CI, 1.03%-3.65%) with type 1 and 7% (95% CI, 5.3%-9%) with type 2 FLT3i. Type 2 FLT3i had less GI toxicity but more QTc prolongation. Prospective studies are needed to compare the efficacy of type 1 and 2 FLT3i.

Update on the role of gemtuzumab-ozogamicin in the treatment of acute myeloid leukemia.

Gemtuzumab-ozogamicin (GO) is an antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) in which a monoclonal antibody targeting CD33 is covalently linked to the toxin calicheamicin. GO was initially approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the treatment of adult patients with CD33+ acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in 2000. However, GO was recalled from the US market due to the lack of efficacy, and higher incidence of hepatotoxicities, including hepatic veno-occlusive disease (VOD), observed in phase 3 SWOG-0106 study. Since then, several other phase 3 studies have evaluated the efficacy of GO in the frontline treatment of adult patients with AML using different GO doses and schedules. The pivotal study that led to the reconsideration of GO was the French ALFA-0701 study, which used a lower and fractionated dose of GO in combination with standard chemotherapy (SC). Patients treated with the GO combination had a significantly longer survival outcome. The modified schedule also improved the toxicity profile. A systematic review and meta-analysis of over 3000 patients treated in five phase 3 studies showed that adding GO to SC improved relapse-free and overall survival. Most importantly, 6 mg/m2 dose of GO was associated with higher grade ⩾3 hepatoxicities and VOD than 3 mg/m2. The survival benefit was significant in the favorable and intermediate cytogenetic risk groups. This led to the reapproval of GO in 2017 for the treatment of patients with CD33+ AML. Currently, several clinical trials are exploring the role of GO with various combinations and in eliminating the measurable residual disease in patients with CD33+ AML.

Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence among children aged 6-59 months from independent DHS and HIV surveys: Nigeria, 2018.

Prevalence estimates are critical for malaria programming efforts but generating these from non-malaria surveys is not standard practice. Malaria prevalence estimates for 6-59-month-old Nigerian children were compared between two national household surveys performed simultaneously in 2018: a Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and the Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS). DHS tested via microscopy (n = 8298) and HRP2-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT, n = 11,351), and NAIIS collected dried blood spots (DBS) which were later tested for histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2) antigen (n = 8029). National Plasmodium falciparum prevalence was 22.6% (95% CI 21.2- 24.1%) via microscopy and 36.2% (34.6- 37.8%) via RDT according to DHS, and HRP2 antigenemia was 38.3% (36.7-39.9%) by NAIIS DBS. Between the two surveys, significant rank-order correlation occurred for state-level malaria prevalence for RDT (Rho = 0.80, p < 0.001) and microscopy (Rho = 0.75, p < 0.001) versus HRP2. RDT versus HRP2 positivity showed 24 states (64.9%) with overlapping 95% confidence intervals from the two independent surveys. P. falciparum prevalence estimates among 6-59-month-olds in Nigeria were highly concordant from two simultaneous, independently conducted household surveys, regardless of malaria test utilized. This provides evidence for the value of post-hoc laboratory HRP2 detection to leverage non-malaria surveys with similar sampling designs to obtain accurate P. falciparum estimates.

Prevalence of HIV drug resistance in Nigeria: results from a cross-sectional, population-based survey of Nigerian adults with unsuppressed viral load.

BACKGROUND: HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) surveillance is an important tool to monitor threats to progress towards epidemic control. The characterization of HIVDR in Nigeria at the national level is needed to inform both clinical decisions and population-level HIV policy strategies. This study uses data obtained from the Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS) to describe the prevalence and distribution of HIVDR in Nigeria. METHODS: NAIIS was a cross-sectional, population-based survey of households throughout Nigeria in 2018. NAIIS was designed to provide estimates of HIV prevalence and related health indicators from a nationally representative sample. The study population included participants aged 15-64 years who tested positive for HIV, had a viral load at least 1000 copies/ml, and had available HIV drug resistance genotypes. HIV isolates were genotyped to detect drug resistance mutations. Individual characteristics of study participants associated with HIVDR were identified using a weighted multivariable logistic regression model. RESULTS: Of 1355 respondents with available HIV genotypes, 293 (19%) had evidence of drug-resistant mutations (DRMs) that conferred resistance to at least one antiretroviral drug. The majority of DRMs observed conferred resistance to NNRTIs (17.6%) and NRTIs (11.2%). HIVDR was associated with being ART-experienced, longer duration on ART, and lower CD4+ count but not sociodemographic characteristics. CONCLUSION: The population level DRM prevalence in Nigeria was consistent with what would be expected in a mature HIV treatment landscape. The continued roll out of dolutegravir-anchored regimens should mitigate the impact of NNRTI resistance on population viral load suppression and progress towards epidemic control.

Individual and household factors associated with non-disclosure of positive HIV status in a population-based HIV serosurvey.

OBJECTIVES: Non-disclosure of positive HIV status in population-based surveys causes underestimation of national HIV diagnosis and biases inferences about engagement in the care continuum. This study investigated individual and household factors associated with HIV non-disclosure to survey interviewers in Nigeria. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of a cross sectional population-based household HIV survey. METHODS: We analyzed data from adults aged 15-64 years who tested positive for HIV and had antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) in their blood from a nationally representative HIV sero-survey conducted in Nigeria in 2018. We considered ARV use as a proxy for knowledge of HIV diagnosis; thus, respondents who self-reported to be unaware of their HIV status were classified as non-disclosers. We estimated the associations between non-disclosure and various sociodemographic, clinical, and household characteristics using weighted logistic regression. RESULTS: Among 1266 respondents living with HIV who were taking ARVs, 503 (40%) did not disclose their HIV status to interviewers. In multivariable statistical analyses, the adjusted odds of non-disclosure were highest among respondents aged 15-24 years, those with less than a primary school education, and those who were the only person living with HIV in their household. CONCLUSIONS: Non-disclosure of positive HIV status to survey personnel is common among adults who are receiving treatment in Nigeria. These findings highlight the importance of validating self-reported HIV status in surveys using biomarkers of ARV use. Meanwhile, it is crucial to improve disclosure by strengthening interview procedures and tailoring strategies towards groups that are disproportionately likely to underreport HIV diagnoses.

Seroprevalence of poliovirus antibodies in Nigeria: refining strategies to sustain the eradication effort.

Introduction: in 2016, a switch from trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) (containing serotypes 1,2,3) to bivalent OPV (types 1,3) was implemented globally. We assessed the seroprevalence of poliovirus antibody levels in selected Nigerian states, before and after the switch, documented poliovirus type2 outbreak responses conducted and ascertained factors associated with immunity gaps based on seroprevalence rates. Methods: we conducted a secondary analysis of stored serum samples from the 2018 Nigeria National HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey. Serum from 1,185 children aged 0-119 months residing in one southern and four northern states were tested for serotype-specific PV neutralizing antibodies; seropositivity was a reciprocal titer ≥8. We conducted regression analysis to determine sociodemographic risk factors associated with low seroprevalence using SAS 9.4. Results: children aged 24-119 months (pre-switch cohort) had seroprevalence against PV1, PV2, and PV3, of 97.3% (95% CI:96.4-98.2), 93.8% (95% CI:92.2-95.5), and 91.3% (95% CI:89.2-93.4), while children aged <24 months (post-switch) had seroprevalence of 86.0% (95% CI:81.2-90.8), 55.6% (95% CI: 47.7-63.4), and 77.2% (95% CI:71.0-83.4) respectively. Regression analysis showed age <24 months was associated with lower seroprevalence against all PV serotypes, (p<0.0001); females had lower seroprevalence against PV1 (p=0.0184) and PV2 (p=0.0354); northern states lower seroprevalence against PV1 (p=0.0039), while well-water source lower seroprevalence against PV3 (p=0.0288). Conclusion: this study showed high seroprevalence rates against PV 1, 2, and 3 in pre-switch children (aged 24-119 months). However, post-switch children (<24 months) had low immunity against PV2 despite outbreak responses. Strategies to increase routine immunization coverage and high-quality polio campaigns can increase immunity against polio virus.

Effect of Nigeria Presidential Task Force on COVID-19 Pandemic, Nigeria.

Nigeria had a confirmed case of COVID-19 on February 28, 2020. On March 17, 2020, the Nigerian Government inaugurated the Presidential Task Force (PTF) on COVID-19 to coordinate the country's multisectoral intergovernmental response. The PTF developed the National COVID-19 Multisectoral Pandemic Response Plan as the blueprint for implementing the response plans. The PTF provided funding, coordination, and governance for the public health response and executed resource mobilization and social welfare support, establishing the framework for containment measures and economic reopening. Despite the challenges of a weak healthcare infrastructure, staff shortages, logistic issues, commodity shortages, currency devaluation, and varying state government cooperation, high-level multisectoral PTF coordination contributed to minimizing the effects of the pandemic through early implementation of mitigation efforts, supported by a strong collaborative partnership with bilateral, multilateral, and private-sector organizations. We describe the lessons learned from the PTF COVID-19 for future multisectoral public health response.

Low-level viraemia among people living with HIV in Nigeria: a retrospective longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: HIV transmission can occur with a viral load of at least 200 copies per mL of blood and low-level viraemia can lead to virological failure; the threshold level at which risk for virological failure is conferred is uncertain. To better understand low-level viraemia prevalence and outcomes, we analysed retrospective longitudinal data from a large cohort of people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Nigeria. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study using previously collected longitudinal patient data, we estimated rates of virological suppression (≤50 copies per mL), low-level viraemia (51-999 copies per mL), virological non-suppression (≥1000 copies per mL), and virological failure (≥2 consecutive virological non-suppression results) among people living with HIV aged 18 years and older who initiated and received at least 24 weeks of ART at 1005 facilities in 18 Nigerian states. We analysed risk for low-level viraemia, virological non-suppression, and virological failure using log-binomial regression and mixed-effects logistic regression. FINDINGS: At first viral load for 402 668 patients during 2016-21, low-level viraemia was present in 64 480 (16·0%) individuals and virological non-suppression occurred in 46 051 (11·4%) individuals. Patients with low-level viraemia had increased risk of virological failure (adjusted relative risk 2·20, 95% CI 1·98-2·43; p<0·0001). Compared with patients with virological suppression, patients with low-level viraemia, even at 51-199 copies per mL, had increased odds of low-level viraemia and virological non-suppression at next viral load; patients on optimised ART (ie, integrase strand transfer inhibitors) had lower odds than those on non-integrase strand transfer inhibitors for the same low-level viraemia range (eg, viral load ≥1000 copies per mL following viral load 400-999 copies per mL, integrase strand transfer inhibitor: odds ratio 1·96, 95% CI 1·79-2·13; p<0·0001; non-integrase strand transfer inhibitor: 3·21, 2·90-3·55; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Patients with low-level viraemia had increased risk of virological non-suppression and failure. Programmes should revise monitoring benchmarks and targets from less than 1000 copies per mL to less than 50 copies per mL to strengthen clinical outcomes and track progress to epidemic control. FUNDING: None.

Key Population Size Estimation to Guide HIV Epidemic Responses in Nigeria: Bayesian Analysis of 3-Source Capture-Recapture Data.

BACKGROUND: Nigeria has the fourth largest burden of HIV globally. Key populations, including female sex workers, men who have sex with men, and people who inject drugs, are more vulnerable to HIV than the general population due to stigmatized and criminalized behaviors. Reliable key population size estimates are needed to guide HIV epidemic response efforts. OBJECTIVE: The objective of our study was to use empirical methods for sampling and analysis to improve the quality of population size estimates of female sex workers, men who have sex with men, and people who inject drugs in 7 states (Akwa Ibom, Benue, Cross River, Lagos, Nasarawa, Rivers, and the Federal Capital Territory) of Nigeria for program planning and to demonstrate improved statistical estimation methods. METHODS: From October to December 2018, we used 3-source capture-recapture to produce population size estimates in 7 states in Nigeria. Hotspots were mapped before 3-source capture-recapture started. We sampled female sex workers, men who have sex with men, and people who inject drugs during 3 independent captures about one week apart. During hotspot encounters, key population members were offered inexpensive, memorable objects unique to each capture round. In subsequent rounds, key population members were offered an object and asked to identify objects received during previous rounds (if any). Correct responses were tallied and recorded on tablets. Data were aggregated by key population and state for analysis. Median population size estimates were derived using Bayesian nonparametric latent-class models with 80% highest density intervals. RESULTS: Overall, we sampled approximately 310,000 persons at 9015 hotspots during 3 independent captures. Population size estimates for female sex workers ranged from 14,500 to 64,300; population size estimates for men who have sex with men ranged from 3200 to 41,400; and population size estimates for people who inject drugs ranged from 3400 to 30,400. CONCLUSIONS: This was the first implementation of these 3-source capture-recapture methods in Nigeria. Our population size estimates were larger than previously documented for each key population in all states. The Bayesian models account for factors, such as social visibility, that influence heterogeneous capture probabilities, resulting in more reliable population size estimates. The larger population size estimates suggest a need for programmatic scale-up to reach these populations, which are at highest risk for HIV.

Evaluation of accuracy and performance of self-reported HIV and antiretroviral therapy status in the Nigeria AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (2018).

BACKGROUND: Data on awareness of HIV status among people living with HIV (PLHIV) are critical to estimating progress toward epidemic control. To ascertain the accuracy of self-reported HIV status and antiretroviral drug (ARV) use in the Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS), we compared self-reported HIV status with HIV rapid diagnostic test (RDT) results and self-reported ARV use with detectable blood ARV levels. METHODS: On the basis of responses and test results, participants were categorized by HIV status and ARV use. Self-reported HIV status and ARV use performance characteristics were determined by estimating sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV). Proportions and other analyses were weighted to account for complex survey design. RESULTS: During NAIIS, 186,405 participants consented for interview out of which 58,646 reported knowing their HIV status. Of the 959 (weighted, 1.5%) who self-reported being HIV-positive, 849 (92.1%) tested HIV positive and 64 (7.9%) tested HIV negative via RDT and polymerase chain reaction test for discordant positive results. Of the 849 who tested HIV positive, 743 (89.8%) reported using ARV and 72 (10.2%) reported not using ARV. Of 57,687 who self-reported being HIV negative, 686 (1.2%) tested HIV positive via RDT, with ARV biomarkers detected among 195 (25.1%). ARV was detected among 94.5% of those who self-reported using ARV and among 42.0% of those who self-reported not using ARV. Overall, self-reported HIV status had sensitivity of 52.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 49.4%-56.0%) with specificity of 99.9% (95% CI: 99.8%-99.9%). Self-reported ARV use had sensitivity of 95.2% (95% CI: 93.6%-96.7%) and specificity of 54.5% (95% CI: 48.8%-70.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported HIV status and ARV use screening tests were found to be low-validity measures during NAIIS. Laboratory tests to confirm self-reported information may be necessary to determine accurate HIV and clinical status for HIV studies in Nigeria.

Outcomes of HIV Positive Children and Adolescents Initiated on Antiretroviral Treatment in Nigeria (2007-2016).

Background: This manuscript aimed to examine treatment outcomes of HIV-positive children and adolescents. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data of a sample of patients aged 0-19 years who initiated ART (October 2007-September 2016) in participating sites in 30 states and the Federal Capital Territory in Nigeria. Results: Among 4006 patients alive at the end of the follow up period, 138 (3.4%) were LTFU. Adolescents had a significantly higher risk of being LTFU than children aged 3-5 years (HR 2.47 [95% CI 1.40-4.34]). Patients with advanced disease had a significantly higher risk of being LTFU (Stage IV HR, 3.66 [95% CI: 2.00-6.68]). On average, optimal ART refill adherence was met by 67.3% of patients. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that focusing on preventing and managing advanced disease and interventions supporting adolescents when transferring to adult care is warranted.

Mapping HIV prevalence in Nigeria using small area estimates to develop a targeted HIV intervention strategy.

OBJECTIVE: Although geographically specific data can help target HIV prevention and treatment strategies, Nigeria relies on national- and state-level estimates for policymaking and intervention planning. We calculated sub-state estimates along the HIV continuum of care in Nigeria. DESIGN: Using data from the Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS) (July-December 2018), we conducted a geospatial analysis estimating three key programmatic indicators: prevalence of HIV infection among adults (aged 15-64 years); antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage among adults living with HIV; and viral load suppression (VLS) rate among adults living with HIV. METHODS: We used an ensemble modeling method called stacked generalization to analyze available covariates and a geostatistical model to incorporate the output from stacking as well as spatial autocorrelation in the modeled outcomes. Separate models were fitted for each indicator. Finally, we produced raster estimates of each indicator on an approximately 5×5-km grid and estimates at the sub-state/local government area (LGA) and state level. RESULTS: Estimates for all three indicators varied both within and between states. While state-level HIV prevalence ranged from 0.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.3%-0.5%]) to 4.3% (95% UI: 3.7%-4.9%), LGA prevalence ranged from 0.2% (95% UI: 0.1%-0.5%) to 8.5% (95% UI: 5.8%-12.2%). Although the range in ART coverage did not substantially differ at state level (25.6%-76.9%) and LGA level (21.9%-81.9%), the mean absolute difference in ART coverage between LGAs within states was 16.7 percentage points (range, 3.5-38.5 percentage points). States with large differences in ART coverage between LGAs also showed large differences in VLS-regardless of level of effective treatment coverage-indicating that state-level geographic targeting may be insufficient to address coverage gaps. CONCLUSION: Geospatial analysis across the HIV continuum of care can effectively highlight sub-state variation and identify areas that require further attention in order to achieve epidemic control. By generating local estimates, governments, donors, and other implementing partners will be better positioned to conduct targeted interventions and prioritize resource distribution.

Validation of xMAP SARS-CoV-2 Multi-Antigen IgG assay in Nigeria.

OBJECTIVE: There is a need for reliable serological assays to determine accurate estimates of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) seroprevalence. Most single target antigen assays have shown some limitations in Africa. To assess the performance of a multi-antigen assay, we evaluated a commercially available SARS-CoV-2 Multi-Antigen IgG assay for human coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Nigeria. METHODS: Validation of the xMAP SARS-CoV-2 Multi-Antigen IgG assay was carried out using well-characterized SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription polymerase chain reactive positive (97) and pre-COVID-19 pandemic (86) plasma panels. Cross-reactivity was assessed using pre-COVID-19 pandemic plasma specimens (213) from the 2018 Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS). RESULTS: The overall sensitivity of the xMAP SARS-CoV-2 Multi-Antigen IgG assay was 75.3% [95% CI: 65.8%- 82.8%] and specificity was 99.0% [95% CI: 96.8%- 99.7%]. The sensitivity estimate increased to 83.3% [95% CI: 70.4%- 91.3%] for specimens >14 days post-confirmation of diagnosis. However, using the NAIIS pre-pandemic specimens, the false positivity rate was 1.4% (3/213). CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed overall lower sensitivity and a comparable specificity with the manufacturer's validation. There appears to be less cross-reactivity with NAIIS pre-pandemic COVID-19 specimens using the xMAP SARS-CoV-2 Multi-Antigen IgG assay. In-country SARS-CoV-2 serology assay validation can help guide the best choice of assays in Africa.