Making Choices: A Multi-institutional, Longitudinal Cohort Study Assessing Changes in Treatment Outcome Valuation for Low-Risk Thyroid Cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the relative importance of treatment outcomes to patients with low-risk thyroid cancer (TC). SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Overuse of total thyroidectomy (TT) for low-risk TC is common. Emotions from a cancer diagnosis may lead patients to choose TT resulting in outcomes that do not align with their preferences. METHODS: Adults with clinically low-risk TC enrolled in a prospective, multi-institutional, longitudinal cohort study from 11/2019-6/2021. Participants rated treatment outcomes at the time of their surgical decision and again 9 months later by allocating 100 points amongst 10 outcomes. T-tests and Hotelling's T 2 statistic compared outcome valuation within and between subjects based on chosen extent of surgery (TT vs. lobectomy). RESULTS: Of 177 eligible patients, 125 participated (70.6% response) and 114 completed the 9-month follow-up (91.2% retention). At the time of the treatment decision, patients choosing TT valued the risk of recurrence more than those choosing lobectomy and the need to take thyroid hormone less ( P <0.05). At repeat valuation, all patients assigned fewer points to cancer being removed and the impact of treatment on their voice, and more points to energy levels ( P <0.05). The importance of the risk of recurrence increased for those who chose lobectomy and decreased for those choosing TT ( P <0.05). CONCLUSION: The relative importance of treatment outcomes changes for patients with low-risk TC once the outcome has been experienced to favor quality of life over emotion-related outcomes. Surgeons can use this information to discuss the potential for asthenia or changes in energy levels associated with total thyroidectomy.

The relative importance of treatment outcomes to surgeons' recommendations for low-risk thyroid cancer.

BACKGROUND: The treatment of low-risk thyroid cancer is controversial. We evaluated the importance of treatment outcomes to surgeons' recommendations. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey asked thyroid surgeons for their treatment recommendations for a healthy 45-year-old patient with a solitary, low-risk, 2-cm papillary thyroid cancer. The importance of the 10 treatment outcomes (survival, recurrence, etc.) to their recommendation was evaluated using constant sum scaling, a method where 100 points are allocated among the treatment outcomes; more points indicate higher importance. The distribution of points was compared between surgeons recommending total thyroidectomy and surgeons recommending lobectomy using Hottelling's T2 test. RESULTS: Of 165 respondents (74.3% response rate), 35.8% (n = 59) recommended total thyroidectomy and 64.2% (n = 106) lobectomy. The importance of the 10 treatment outcomes was significantly different between groups (P < .05). Surgeons recommending total thyroidectomy were most influenced by the risk of recurrence (19.1 points; standard deviation 16.5) and rated this 1.6-times more important than those recommending lobectomy. Conversely, surgeons recommending lobectomy placed high emphasis on need for hormone replacement (14.3 points; standard deviation 15.4), rating this 3.1-times more important than those recommending total thyroidectomy. CONCLUSION: Surgeons who recommend total thyroidectomy and those who recommend lobectomy differently prioritize the importance of cancer recurrence and thyroid hormone replacement. Understanding how surgeons' beliefs influence their recommendations is important for ensuring patients receive treatment aligned with their values.

Trends in Medicaid Enrollment and Disenrollment During the Early Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Wisconsin.

Importance: After the federal public health emergency was declared in March 2020, states could qualify for increased federal Medicaid funding if they agreed to maintenance of eligibility (MOE) provisions, including a continuous coverage provision. The implications of MOE provisions for total Medicaid enrollment are unknown. Objective: To examine observed increases in Medicaid enrollment and identify the underlying roots of that growth during the first 7 months of the COVID-19 public health emergency in Wisconsin. Design Setting and Participants: This population-based cohort study compared changes in Wisconsin Medicaid enrollment from March through September 2020 with predicted changes based on previous enrollment patterns (January 2015-September 2019) and early pandemic employment shocks. The participants included enrollees in full-benefit Medicaid programs for nonelderly, nondisabled beneficiaries in Wisconsin from March through September 2020. Individuals were followed up monthly as they enrolled in, continued in, and disenrolled from Medicaid. Participants were considered to be newly enrolled if they enrolled in the program after being not enrolled for at least 1 month, and they were considered disenrolled if they left and were not reenrolled within the next month. Exposures: Continuous coverage provision beginning in March 2020; economic disruption from pandemic between first and second quarters of 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Actual vs predicted Medicaid enrollment, new enrollment, disenrollment, and reenrollment. Three models were created (Medicaid enrollment with no pandemic, Medicaid enrollment with pandemic economic circumstances, and longer Medicaid enrollment with a pandemic-induced recession), and a 95% prediction interval was used to express uncertainty in enrollment predictions. Results: The study estimated ongoing Medicaid enrollment in March 2020 for 792 777 enrollees (mean [SD] age, 20.6 [16.5] years; 431 054 [54.4%] women; 213 904 [27.0%] experiencing an employment shock) and compared that estimate with actual enrollment totals. Compared with a model of enrollment based on past data and incorporating the role of recent employment shocks, most ongoing excess enrollment was associated with MOE provisions rather than enrollment of newly eligible beneficiaries owing to employment shocks. After 7 months, overall enrollment had increased to 894 619, 11.1% higher than predicted (predicted enrollment 805 130; 95% prediction interval 767 991-843 086). Decomposing higher-than-predicted retention, most enrollment was among beneficiaries who, before the pandemic, likely would have disenrolled within 6 months, although a substantial fraction (30.4%) was from reduced short-term disenrollment. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, observed increases in Medicaid enrollment were largely associated with MOE rather than new enrollment after employment shocks. Expiration of MOE may leave many beneficiaries without insurance coverage.

The limits of simple implementation intentions: Evidence from a field experiment on making plans to exercise.

Recent large-scale randomized experiments find that helping people form implementation intentions by asking when and where they plan to act increases one-time actions, such as vaccinations, preventative screenings and voting. We investigate the effect of a simple scalable planning intervention on a repeated behavior using a randomized design involving 877 subjects at a private gym. Subjects were randomized into i) a treatment group who selected the days and times they intended to attend the gym over the next two weeks or ii) a control group who instead recorded their days of exercise in the prior two weeks. In contrast to recent studies, we find that the planning intervention did not have a positive effect on behavior. We observe a tightly estimated null effect even though the majority of subjects believed that planning is helpful and despite clear evidence that they engaged with the planning process.

Can financial incentives help people trying to establish new habits? Experimental evidence with new gym members.

Can financial incentives aid habit formation in people attempting to establish a positive health behavior? We provide evidence on this question from a randomized controlled trial of modest-sized incentives to attend the gym among new members of a fitness facility. Our experiment randomized 690 participants into a control group that received a $30 payment unconditionally or one of 3 incentive groups that received a payment for attending the gym at least 9 times over the first 6 weeks of membership. Two incentive treatment arms offered monetary payments of $30 and $60. The third incentive treatment, motivated by the endowment effect, offered a physical item worth $30. All three incentives had only small impacts on attendance during members' first 6 weeks and no effect on their post-incentive visit trajectories. We document substantial overconfidence among new members about their likely visits and discuss how overconfidence may undermine the effectiveness of incentive programs.