Study protocol for a scoping review of Lyme disease prediction methodologies.

INTRODUCTION: In the temperate world, Lyme disease (LD) is the most common vector-borne disease affecting humans. In North America, LD surveillance and research have revealed an increasing territorial expansion of hosts, bacteria and vectors that has accompanied an increasing incidence of the disease in humans. To better understand the factors driving disease spread, predictive models can use current and historical data to predict disease occurrence in populations across time and space. Various prediction methods have been used, including approaches to evaluate prediction accuracy and/or performance and a range of predictors in LD risk prediction research. With this scoping review, we aim to document the different modelling approaches including types of forecasting and/or prediction methods, predictors and approaches to evaluating model performance (eg, accuracy). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This scoping review will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Review guidelines. Electronic databases will be searched via keywords and subject headings (eg, Medical Subject Heading terms). The search will be performed in the following databases: PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, CAB Abstracts, Global Health and SCOPUS. Studies reported in English or French investigating the risk of LD in humans through spatial prediction and temporal forecasting methodologies will be identified and screened. Eligibility criteria will be applied to the list of articles to identify which to retain. Two reviewers will screen titles and abstracts, followed by a full-text screening of the articles' content. Data will be extracted and charted into a standard form, synthesised and interpreted. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This scoping review is based on published literature and does not require ethics approval. Findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at scientific conferences.

Modelling Spatiotemporal Patterns of Lyme Disease Emergence in Québec.

Lyme disease is a growing public health problem in Québec. Its emergence over the last decade is caused by environmental and anthropological factors that favour the survival of Ixodes scapularis, the vector of Lyme disease transmission. The objective of this study was to estimate the speed and direction of human Lyme disease emergence in Québec and to identify spatiotemporal risk patterns. A surface trend analysis was conducted to estimate the speed and direction of its emergence based upon the first detected case of Lyme disease in each municipality in Québec since 2004. A cluster analysis was also conducted to identify at-risk regions across space and time. These analyses were reproduced for the date of disease onset and date of notification for each case of Lyme disease. It was estimated that Lyme disease is spreading northward in Québec at a speed varying between 18 and 32 km/year according to the date of notification and the date of disease onset, respectively. A significantly high risk of disease was found in seven clusters identified in the south-west of Québec in the sociosanitary regions of Montérégie and Estrie. The results obtained in this study improve our understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of Lyme disease in Québec, which can be used for proactive, targeted interventions by public and clinical health authorities.