Incidence and development of validated mortality prediction model among asphyxiated neonates admitted to neonatal intensive care unit at Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia, 2021: retrospective follow-up study.

INTRODUCTION: Perinatal asphyxia is failure to maintain normal breathing at birth. World Health Organization indicates that perinatal asphyxia is the third major cause of neonatal mortality in developing countries accounting for 23% of neonatal deaths every year. At global and national level efforts have done to reduce neonatal mortality, however fatalities from asphyxia remains high in Ethiopia (24%). And there are no sufficient studies to show incidence and prediction of mortality among asphyxiated neonates. Developing validated risk prediction model is one of the crucial strategies to improve neonatal outcomes with asphyxia. Therefore, this study will help to screen asphyxiated neonate at high-risk for mortality during admission by easily accessible predictors. This study aimed to determine the incidence and develop validated Mortality Prediction model among asphyxiated neonates admitted to the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit at Felege-Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia. METHOD: Retrospective follow-up study was conducted at Felege-Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital from September 1, 2017, to March 31, 2021. Simple random sampling was used to select 774 neonates, and 738 were reviewed. Since was data Secondary, it was collected by checklist. After the description of the data by table and graph, Univariable with p-value < 0.25, and stepwise multivariable analysis with p-value < 0.05 were done to develop final reduced prediction model by likelihood ratio test. To improve clinical utility, we developed a simplified risk score to classify asphyxiated neonates at high or low-risk of mortality. The accuracy of the model was evaluated using area under curve, and calibration plot. To measures all accuracy internal validation using bootstrapping technique were assessed. We evaluated the clinical impact of the model using a decision curve analysis across various threshold probabilities. RESULT: Incidence of neonatal mortality with asphyxia was 27.2% (95% CI: 24.1, 30.6). Rural residence, bad obstetric history, amniotic fluid status, multiple pregnancy, birth weight (< 2500 g), hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (stage II and III), and failure to suck were identified in the final risk prediction score. The area under the curve for mortality using 7 predictors was 0.78 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.82). With ≥ 7 cutoffs the sensitivity and specificity of risk prediction score were 0.64 and 0.82 respectively. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION: Incidence of neonatal mortality with asphyxia was high. The risk prediction score had good discrimination power built by rural residence, bad obstetric history, stained amniotic fluid, multiple pregnancy, birth weight (< 2500 g), hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (stage II and III), and failure to suck. Thus, using this score chart and improve neonatal and maternal service reduce mortality among asphyxiated neonates.

Outcome evaluation of WASH intervention in rural households at Jawi district, Northwest Ethiopia: Mixed method design, goal based evaluation.

BACKGROUND: The government of Ethiopia revealed that GTP II and SDG were achieved through one Water Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) program. According to the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health survey, the rural population was more affected by poor sanitation and hygiene. To address this Ethiopian government ratified Rural WASH sanitation and hygiene promotion through a community-centered approach, and to improve WASH service evidence on the effectiveness of an intervention at the household level is needed in developing countries. However, in our country one WASH in rural areas called community centered approach intervention was planned and delivered for 3 years (2018-2020) Nevertheless, as to our review and researchers knowledge, the outcome of this intervention is not evaluated yet in our country as well as in this evaluation study area. METHOD: The evaluation was conducted in rural households of Jawi district by a Quasi-experimental design supplemented with a qualitative in-depth interview, from 01/14/2021-3/28/2021 and 4/22/2021-5/25/2021 for quanitative and qualitative study, respectively. Intervention groups were households that took WASH intervention while the controls did not. The evaluation approach was summative and counterfactual plus participatory and focuses on program outcome. A total of 1280 households were selected using two stage sampling with lottery method simple random sampling. We collected quantitative data through survey and structured observational checklist, while qualitative data through key informant interviews using a semi-structured questionnaire. We assessed program effectiveness and also the analytical study was conducted through propensity score matching to assess program effect through Stata 14.1. Qualitative data were transcribed and translated to English and thematic analysis was done using Atlas.ti.9. RESULT: The overall program effectiveness was very good but the effectiveness in handwashing before eating using soap and water was poor. Also, this intervention increased water treatment utilization in 41.7% point (ATT=0.417, 95% CI= 0.356, 0.478), 24.3% point (ATT =0.243, 95%CI=0.180, 0.300) in exclusive latrine utilization, 41.9% point (ATT=0.419, 95%CI = 0.376, 0.470) in handwashing using water and soap before eating, 50.2% point(ATT=0.502, 95%CI=0.450, 0.550) in handwashing after defecation by using water and soap in intervention households. Our qualitative finding revealed that unable to afford soap and their working place far away from their home were the most frequent reason reported by the respondent for not using soap for hand washing and latrine utilization respectively CONCLUSIONS: This intervention should be scale-up and pay greater attention and deliver innovative strategies to the improvement of handwashing practice and exclusive latrine utilization. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIALS: The data sets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.