REPSOL oil spill off Central Perú in January 2022: A modeling case study.

This study simulates the spillage of 1460 metric tons of oil that occurred in January 2022 off La Pampilla Refinery, in central Perú. The oil slick was predominantly displaced northward along the coastline, driven by prevailing currents and winds in the region. The weathering analysis revealed that the removal of oil was mainly due to evaporation (28%) and beaching processes (70%) within 96 h after the initial release. The coastal areas spanning from Ventanilla to Punta Chancay experienced significant impacts from the oil spill, representing 96% of the total affected coastal extent. Specifically, Ventanilla and Santa Rosa Beaches and the National Reserve System of Islands were heavily impacted during the first 24 h, while the surroundings of Ancón Bay, Aucallama and Pasamayo beaches were affected after two days. This modeling case study provides valuable insights into the fate and transport of the Repsol oil spill.

Climate vulnerability assessment of key fishery resources in the Northern Humboldt Current System.

The Northern Humboldt Current System sustains one of the most productive fisheries in the world. However, climate change is anticipated to negatively affect fish production in this region over the next few decades, and detailed analyses for many fishery resources are unavailable. We implemented a trait-based Climate Vulnerability Assessment based on expert elicitation to estimate the relative vulnerability of 28 fishery resources (benthic, demersal, and pelagic) to the impacts of climate change by 2055; ten exposure factors (e.g., temperature, salinity, pH, chlorophyll) and 13 sensitivity attributes (biological and population-level traits) were used. Nearly 36% of the species assessed had "high" or "very high" vulnerability. Benthic species were ranked the most vulnerable (gastropod and bivalve species). The pelagic group was the second most vulnerable; the Pacific chub mackerel and the yellowfin tuna were amongst the most vulnerable pelagic species. The demersal group had the relatively lowest vulnerability. This study allowed identification of vulnerable fishery resources, research and monitoring priorities, and identification of the key exposure factors and sensitivity attributes which are driving that vulnerability. Our findings can help fishery managers incorporate climate change into harvest level and allocation decisions, and assist stakeholders plan for and adapt to a changing future.

Marine heatwaves in the Humboldt current system: from 5-day localized warming to year-long El Niños.

During the last 4 decades punctual occurrences of extreme ocean temperatures, known as marine heatwaves (MHWs), have been regularly disrupting the coastal ecosystem of the Peru-Chile eastern boundary upwelling system. In fact, this coastal system and biodiversity hot-spot is regularly impacted by El Niño events, whose variability has been related to the longest and most intense MHWs in the world ocean. However the intensively studied El Niños tend to overshadow the MHWs of shorter duration that are significantly more common in the region. Using sea surface temperature data from 1982 to 2019 we investigate the characteristics and evolution of MHWs, distinguishing events by duration. Results show that long duration MHWs (> 100 days) preferentially affect the coastal domain north of 15° S and have decreased in both occurrence and intensity in the last four decades. On the other hand, shorter events, which represent more than 90% of all the observed MHWs, are more common south of 15° S and show an increase in their thermal impact as well as on the number of affected days, particularly those spanning 30-100 days. We also show that long duration MHWs variability in the coastal domain is well correlated with the remote equatorial variability while the onset of short events (< 10 days) generally goes along with a relaxation of the local coastal wind.

Paralytic shellfish toxins in Peruvian scallops associated with blooms of Alexandrium ostenfeldii (Paulsen) Balech & Tangen in Paracas Bay, Peru.

In recent years, dense Alexandrium ostenfeldii blooms have been reported in different coastal areas. In this study, we report for the first time the occurrence of A. ostenfeldii blooms associated with the detection of paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs) in the Peruvian scallop (Argopecten purpuratus) from Paracas Bay. Alexandrium ostenfeldii blooms occurred at the end of summer and early fall, after the increase of riverine input and under stratified conditions following a decrease in wind velocity. The highest abundances occurred during warm sea surface temperatures (18-27 °C). High PST concentrations that exceed the maximum permissible level (800 µg STX eq. kg-1) occurred even under low A. ostenfeldii abundances (20 × 103 cells l-1). Our results contribute to a better understanding of the dynamics of A. ostenfeldii in coastal systems influenced by riverine inputs and upwelling and can be used to improve monitoring programs and allow the implementation of mitigation measures along the Peruvian coast.

Integrating human and ecological dimensions: The importance of stakeholders' perceptions and participation on the performance of fisheries co-management in Chile.

Increasing attention is paid to the interdependence between the ecological and human dimensions to improve the management of natural resources. Understanding how artisanal fishers see and use the common-pool resources in a co-management system may hold the clue to establishing effective coastal fisheries policies or strengthening existing ones. A more comprehensive planning of the system will also have a bearing on how to reduce conflicts and strengthen social networks. We surveyed artisanal fishers and decision-makers to determine their perceptions about the Management and Exploitation Areas of Benthic Resources (known as MEABR) in Chile's Biobio region. We performed a field study from November 2018 to August 2019, applying a set of questionnaires to determine the ecological and human attributes that contribute to MEABR outcomes, and then constructed composite scores for those attributes according to a multidimensional scaling technique ("Rapfish"). We find that fishers have different perspectives: surprisingly, women highlighted that the institutional dimension was the most influential on MEABR performance, whereas men highlighted the ecological and economic outcomes. The decision-makers' role in the MEABR system was considered adequate, but communication and socialization of regulations were irregular. Results also showed that fishers expressed dissatisfaction with illegal fishing practices (poaching), productivity, profits, and conflicts inside and outside the MEABRs. Our study allowed us to better understand how the MEABR has developed in the region. We recommend strengthening local management strategies with particular attention paid to networking among stakeholders, including gender inclusive relationships.

Biogeochemical validation of an interannual simulation of the ROMS-PISCES coupled model in the Southeast Pacific / Validación biogeoquímica de una simulación interanual del modelo acoplado ROMS-PISCES en el Pacífico Sudeste

Currently biogeochemical models are used to understand and quantify key biogeochemical processes in the ocean. The objective of the present study was to validate predictive ability of a regional configuration of the PISCES biogeochemical model on main biogeochemical variables in Humboldt Current Large Marine Ecosystem (HCLME). The statistical indicators used to evaluate the model were the bias, root-mean-square error, correlation coefficient and, graphically, the Taylor’s diagram. The results showed that the model reproduces the dynamics of the main biogeochemical variables (chlorophyll, dissolved oxygen and nutrients); in particular, the impact of El Niño 1997-1998 in the chlorophyll (decrease) and oxygen minimum zone depth (increase). However, it is necessary to carry out sensitivity studies of the PISCES model with different key parameters values to obtain a more accurate representation of the properties of the Ocean.

Los modelos biogeoquímicos en la actualidad son utilizados para entender y cuantificar los principales procesos biogeoquímicos que suceden en el océano. El objetivo del presente estudio es validar estadísticamente la habilidad predictiva de una simulación del modelo biogeoquímico PISCES en reproducir la dinámica de las principales variables biogeoquímicas del Ecosistema de la Corriente de Humboldt (ECH). Para evaluar el modelo se utilizaron indicadores estadísticos: sesgo, error de la raíz del cuadrado medio, coeficiente de correlación y gráficamente el diagrama de Taylor. Los resultados muestran que el modelo es capaz de reproducir la dinámica de las principales variables biogeoquímicas (clorofila, oxígeno disuelto y nutriente), captando bien el impacto que tiene El Niño 1997-1998 en la clorofila (disminución) y profundidad de la zona mínima de oxígeno (incremento). Es necesario llevar a cabo estudios de sensibilidad del modelo PISCES usando diferentes valores de los principales parámetros para obtener una mejor representación de las propiedades biogeoquímicas del océano.

Coupled ecosystem/supply chain modelling of fish products from sea to shelf: the Peruvian anchoveta case.

Sustainability assessment of food supply chains is relevant for global sustainable development. A framework is proposed for analysing fishfood (fish products for direct human consumption) supply chains with local or international scopes. It combines a material flow model (including an ecosystem dimension) of the supply chains, calculation of sustainability indicators (environmental, socio-economic, nutritional), and finally multi-criteria comparison of alternative supply chains (e.g. fates of landed fish) and future exploitation scenarios. The Peruvian anchoveta fishery is the starting point for various local and global supply chains, especially via reduction of anchoveta into fishmeal and oil, used worldwide as a key input in livestock and fish feeds. The Peruvian anchoveta supply chains are described, and the proposed methodology is used to model them. Three scenarios were explored: status quo of fish exploitation (Scenario 1), increase in anchoveta landings for food (Scenario 2), and radical decrease in total anchoveta landings to allow other fish stocks to prosper (Scenario 3). It was found that Scenario 2 provided the best balance of sustainability improvements among the three scenarios, but further refinement of the assessment is recommended. In the long term, the best opportunities for improving the environmental and socio-economic performance of Peruvian fisheries are related to sustainability-improving management and policy changes affecting the reduction industry. Our approach provides the tools and quantitative results to identify these best improvement opportunities.

Hidden Markov models: the best models for forager movements?

One major challenge in the emerging field of movement ecology is the inference of behavioural modes from movement patterns. This has been mainly addressed through Hidden Markov models (HMMs). We propose here to evaluate two sets of alternative and state-of-the-art modelling approaches. First, we consider hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs). They may better represent the behavioural dynamics of foragers since they explicitly model the duration of the behavioural modes. Second, we consider discriminative models which state the inference of behavioural modes as a classification issue, and may take better advantage of multivariate and non linear combinations of movement pattern descriptors. For this work, we use a dataset of >200 trips from human foragers, Peruvian fishermen targeting anchovy. Their movements were recorded through a Vessel Monitoring System (∼1 record per hour), while their behavioural modes (fishing, searching and cruising) were reported by on-board observers. We compare the efficiency of hidden Markov, hidden semi-Markov, and three discriminative models (random forests, artificial neural networks and support vector machines) for inferring the fishermen behavioural modes, using a cross-validation procedure. HSMMs show the highest accuracy (80%), significantly outperforming HMMs and discriminative models. Simulations show that data with higher temporal resolution, HSMMs reach nearly 100% of accuracy. Our results demonstrate to what extent the sequential nature of movement is critical for accurately inferring behavioural modes from a trajectory and we strongly recommend the use of HSMMs for such purpose. In addition, this work opens perspectives on the use of hybrid HSMM-discriminative models, where a discriminative setting for the observation process of HSMMs could greatly improve inference performance.

Climate change scenarios experiments predict a future reduction in small pelagic fish recruitment in the Humboldt Current system.

The Humboldt Current System (HCS) sustains the world's largest small pelagic fishery. While a cooling of this system has been observed during recent decades, there is debate about the potential impacts of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations on upwelling dynamics and productivity. Recent studies suggest that under increased atmospheric CO2 scenarios the oceanic stratification may strongly increase and upwelling-favorable winds may remain nearly constant off Peru and increase off Chile. Here we investigate the impact of such climatic conditions on egg and larval dispersal phases, a key stage of small pelagic fish reproduction. We used larval retention rate in a predefined nursery area to provide a proxy for the recruitment level. Numerical experiments are based on hydrodynamics downscaled to the HCS from global simulations forced by pre-industrial (PI), 2 × CO2 and 4 × CO2 scenarios. A biogeochemical model is applied to the PI and 4 × CO2 scenarios to define a time-variable nursery area where larval survival is optimum. We test two distinct values of the oxycline depth that limits larval vertical distribution: One corresponding to the present-day situation and the other corresponding to a shallower oxycline potentially produced by climate change. It appeared that larval retention over the continental shelf increases with enhanced stratification due to regional warming. However, this increase in retention is largely compensated for by a decrease of the nursery area and the shoaling of the oxycline. The underlying dynamics are explained by a combination of stratification effects and mesoscale activity changes. Our results therefore show that future climate change may significantly reduce fish capacity in the HCS with strong ecological, economic and social consequences.

Impacts of fishing low-trophic level species on marine ecosystems.

Low-trophic level species account for more than 30% of global fisheries production and contribute substantially to global food security. We used a range of ecosystem models to explore the effects of fishing low-trophic level species on marine ecosystems, including marine mammals and seabirds, and on other commercially important species. In five well-studied ecosystems, we found that fishing these species at conventional maximum sustainable yield (MSY) levels can have large impacts on other parts of the ecosystem, particularly when they constitute a high proportion of the biomass in the ecosystem or are highly connected in the food web. Halving exploitation rates would result in much lower impacts on marine ecosystems while still achieving 80% of MSY.