Managing two-dose COVID-19 vaccine rollouts with limited supply: Operations strategies for distributing time-sensitive resources.

Distributing scarce resources such as COVID-19 vaccines is often a highly time-sensitive and mission-critical operation. Our research was prompted by a significant obstacle that the United States and other nations encountered during the early months of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign: Most COVID-19 vaccines require two doses given 3 or 4 weeks apart. Given the severely limited supply and mounting pressure on many countries to reduce hospitalizations and mortality, how to effectively roll out two-dose vaccines was a critical policy decision. In this paper, we first model and analyze inventory dynamics of the rollout process under three rollout strategies: (1) holding back second doses, (2) releasing second doses, and (3) stretching the lead time between doses. Then we develop an SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered) model that incorporates COVID-19 asymptomatic and symptomatic infections to evaluate these strategies in terms of infections, hospitalizations, and mortality. Among our findings, we show releasing second doses reduces infections but creates uneven vaccination patterns. In addition, to ensure second doses are given on time without holding back inventory, strictly less than half of the supply can be allocated to first-dose appointments. Stretching the between-dose lead time flattens the infection curve and reduces both hospitalizations and mortality compared with the strategy of releasing second doses. We also consider an alternative single-dose vaccine with lower efficacy and show that the vaccine can be more effective than its two-dose counterparts in reducing infections and mortality. We conduct extensive sensitivity analyses related to age composition, risk-based prioritization, supply disruptions, and disease transmissibility. Our paper provides important implications for policymakers to develop effective vaccine rollout strategies in developed and developing countries alike. More broadly, our paper sheds light on how to develop effective operations strategies for distributing time-sensitive resources in times of crisis.

Spondylodiscitis following endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair: imaging perspectives from a single centre's experience.

OBJECTIVE: Very few reports have previously described spondylodiscitis as a potential complication of endovascular aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR). We present to our knowledge the first case series of spondylodiscitis following EVAR based on our institution's experience over an 11-year period. Particular attention is paid to the key imaging features and challenges encountered when performing spinal imaging in this complex patient group. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Of 1,847 patients who underwent EVAR at our institution between January 2006 and January 2017, a total of 9 patients were identified with imaging features of spondylodiscitis (0.5%). All cross-sectional studies before and after EVAR were assessed by a Consultant Musculoskeletal Radiologist and a Musculoskeletal Radiology Fellow to evaluate for features of spondylodiscitis. RESULTS: All 9 patients had single-level spondylodiscitis involving lumbosacral levels adjacent to the aortic/iliac stent graft. Eight out of nine patients had an extensive anterior paravertebral phlegmon/abscess that was contiguous with the infected stent graft and native aneurysm sac ± anterior vertebral body erosion. Epidural disease was present in only 3 out of 9 patients and was a minor feature. MRI was non-diagnostic in 3 out of 9 patients owing to susceptibility artefact. 18F-FDG PET/CT accurately depicted the spinal level involved and adjacent paravertebral disease in patients with non-diagnostic MRI and was adopted as the follow-up modality in 3 out of 5 surviving patients. CONCLUSION: Spondylodiscitis is a rare complication post-EVAR. Imaging features of disproportionate anterior paravertebral disease and anterior vertebral body bony involvement suggest direct spread of infection posteriorly to the adjacent vertebral column. Use of MRI versus 18F-FDG PET/CT as the optimal imaging modality should be directed by the type of stent graft deployed.

Progression to AIDS in South Africa is associated with both reverting and compensatory viral mutations.

We lack the understanding of why HIV-infected individuals in South Africa progress to AIDS. We hypothesised that in end-stage disease there is a shifting dynamic between T cell imposed immunity and viral immune escape, which, through both compensatory and reverting viral mutations, results in increased viral fitness, elevated plasma viral loads and disease progression. We explored how T cell responses, viral adaptation and viral fitness inter-relate in South African cohorts recruited from Bloemfontein, the Free State (n = 278) and Durban, KwaZulu-Natal (n = 775). Immune responses were measured by γ-interferon ELISPOT assays. HLA-associated viral polymorphisms were determined using phylogenetically corrected techniques, and viral replication capacity (VRC) was measured by comparing the growth rate of gag-protease recombinant viruses against recombinant NL4-3 viruses. We report that in advanced disease (CD4 counts <100 cells/µl), T cell responses narrow, with a relative decline in Gag-directed responses (p<0.0001). This is associated with preserved selection pressure at specific viral amino acids (e.g., the T242N polymorphism within the HLA-B*57/5801 restricted TW10 epitope), but with reversion at other sites (e.g., the T186S polymorphism within the HLA-B*8101 restricted TL9 epitope), most notably in Gag and suggestive of "immune relaxation". The median VRC from patients with CD4 counts <100 cells/µl was higher than from patients with CD4 counts ≥ 500 cells/µl (91.15% versus 85.19%, p = 0.0004), potentially explaining the rise in viral load associated with disease progression. Mutations at HIV Gag T186S and T242N reduced VRC, however, in advanced disease only the T242N mutants demonstrated increasing VRC, and were associated with compensatory mutations (p = 0.013). These data provide novel insights into the mechanisms of HIV disease progression in South Africa. Restoration of fitness correlates with loss of viral control in late disease, with evidence for both preserved and relaxed selection pressure across the HIV genome. Interventions that maintain viral fitness costs could potentially slow progression.