Relationship of litterfall anomalies with climatic anomalies in a mangrove swamp of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico.

Among the set of phenological traits featuring mangrove ecosystems, litterfall production stands out with marked intra-annual and longer-term variation. Furthermore, mangrove forests resilience is one of the most important ecological attribute, reconciling the juxtaposed terrestrial and marine environment such transitional systems occupy. However, world's mangroves are nowadays facing recurrent climatic events, reflected in anomalies depicted by major drivers, including temperature and precipitation. This physical-environmental setting may either constrain or favor overall forest productivity. A combination of time series analysis (spectral density and cross-correlation techniques) and statistical model fitting (General additive model) was implemented to explore trends in total litterfall of a well-developed mangrove forest in southeastern Gulf of Mexico (Celestun Lagoon, SE Mexico) and potential association with the varying behavior of temperature (°C) and precipitation (mm month-1), highlighting their anomalies. The results are consistent with a synchronous response between litterfall production and climatic variables (mean monthly temperature and total monthly precipitation). Concurrent peak litterfall production in Celestun lagoon with high temperatures and precipitation occurred during June and October, featuring a two-month time lag for the response time. More than half of the litterfall anomalies (53.5%) could be reflecting either multiple sources of climatic anomalies (maximum, minimum, and monthly average temperature and monthly total precipitation) or single point events (cyclone landfall). This relationship dynamics showed an interannual persistence (1999-2010). The structure portrayed by the litterfall time-series was not unequivocally related to climatic anomalies. Arguably, climatic anomalies behave with different intensities and even may exhibit complex interactions among them. The study of anomalies provides a baseline for a better grasp of: i) mangrove anomalies responses and ii) their vulnerability to these extremes.

Drivers of mangrove vulnerability and resilience to tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin.

The North Atlantic Basin (NAB) has seen an increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones since the 1980s, with record-breaking seasons in 2017 and 2020. However, little is known about how coastal ecosystems, particularly mangroves in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, respond to these new "climate normals" at regional and subregional scales. Wind speed, rainfall, pre-cyclone forest height, and hydro-geomorphology are known to influence mangrove damage and recovery following cyclones in the NAB. However, previous studies have focused on local-scale responses and individual cyclonic events. Here, we analyze 25 years (1996-2020) of mangrove vulnerability (damage after a cyclone) and 24 years (1996-2019) of short-term resilience (recovery after damage) for the NAB and subregions, using multi-annual, remote sensing-derived databases. We used machine learning to characterize the influence of 22 potential variables on mangrove responses, including human development and long-term climate trends. Our results document variability in the rates and drivers of mangrove vulnerability and resilience, highlighting hotspots of cyclone impacts, mangrove damage, and loss of resilience. Cyclone characteristics mainly drove vulnerability at the regional level. In contrast, resilience was driven by site-specific conditions, including long-term climate trends, pre-cyclone forest structure, soil organic carbon stock, and coastal development (i.e., proximity to human infrastructure). Coastal development is associated with both vulnerability and resilience at the subregional level. Further, we highlight that loss of resilience occurs mostly in areas experiencing long-term drought across the NAB. The impacts of increasing cyclone activity on mangroves and their coastal protection service must be framed in the context of compound climate change effects and continued coastal development. Our work offers descriptive and spatial information to support the restoration and adaptive management of NAB mangroves, which need adequate health, structure, and density to protect coasts and serve as Nature-based Solutions against climate change and extreme weather events.

Blue carbon of Mexico, carbon stocks and fluxes: a systematic review.

Mexico has more than 750,000 ha of mangroves and more than 400,000 ha of seagrasses. However, approximately 200,000 ha of mangroves and an unknown area of seagrass have been lost due to coastal development associated with urban, industrial and tourist purposes. In 2018, the approved reforms to the General Law on Climate Change (LGCC) aligned the Mexican law with the international objectives established in the 2nd Article of the Paris Agreement. This action proves Mexico's commitment to contributing to the global target of stabilizing the greenhouse gas emissions concentration in the planet. Thus, restoring and conserving mangrove and seagrass habitats could contribute to fulfilling this commitment. Therefore, as a first step in establishing a mitigation and adaptation plan against climate change with respect to conservation and restoration actions of these ecosystems, we evaluated Mexican blue carbon ecosystems through a systematic review of the carbon stock using the standardized method of Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA). We used the data from 126 eligible studies for both ecosystems (n = 1220). The results indicated that information is missing at the regional level. However, the average above and below ground organic carbon stocks from mangroves in Mexico is 113.6 ± 5.5 (95% CI [99.3-118.4]) Mg Corg ha-1 and 385.1 ± 22 (95% CI [344.5-431.9]) Mg Corg ha-1, respectively. The variability in the Corg stocks for both blue carbon ecosystems in Mexico is related to variations in climate, hydrology and geomorphology observed along the country's coasts in addition to the size and number of plots evaluated with respect to the spatial cover. The highest values for mangroves were related to humid climate conditions, although in the case of seagrasses, they were related to low levels of hydrodynamic stress. Based on the official extent of mangrove and seagrass area in Mexico, we estimate a total carbon stock of 237.7 Tg Corg from mangroves and 48.1 Tg Corg from seagrasses. However, mangroves and seagrasses are still being lost due to land use change despite Mexican laws meant to incorporate environmental compensation. Such losses are largely due to loopholes in the legal framework that dilute the laws' effectiveness and thus ability to protect the ecosystem. The estimated emissions from land use change under a conservative approach in mangroves of Mexico were approximately 24 Tg CO2e in the last 20 years. Therefore, the incorporation of blue carbon into the carbon market as a viable source of supplemental finance for mangrove and seagrass protection is an attractive win-win opportunity.