Using a chain of models to predict health and environmental impacts in Norway from a hypothetical nuclear accident at the Sellafield site.

When a nuclear accident occurs, decision makers in the affected country/countries would need to act promptly to protect people, the environment and societal interests from harmful impacts of radioactive fallout. The decisions are usually based on a combination of model prognoses, measurements, and expert judgements within in an emergency decision support system (DSS). Large scale nuclear accidents would need predictive models for the atmospheric, terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems, for the connections between these in terms of radionuclide fluxes, and for the various exposure pathways to both humans and biota. Our study showed that eight different models and DSS modules could be linked to assess the total human and environmental consequences in Norway from a hypothetical nuclear accident, here chosen to be the Sellafield nuclear reprocessing plant. Activity concentrations and dose rates from 137Cs for both humans and the environment via various exposure routes were successfully modelled. The study showed that a release of 1% of the total inventory of 137Cs in the Highly Active Liquor Tanks at Sellafield Ltd is predicted to severely impact humans and the environment in Norway if strong winds are blowing towards the country at the time of an accidental atmospheric release. Furthermore, since the models did not have built-in uncertainty ranges when this Sellafield study was performed, investigations were conducted to identify the key factors contributing to uncertainty in various models and prioritise the ones to focus on in future research.

Influence of chemical composition of precipitation on migration of radioactive caesium in natural soils.

The aim of the present work was to study the impact of the chemical composition of precipitation on radiocaesium mobility in natural soil. This was done through column studies. Three types of precipitation regimes were studied, representing a natural range found in Norway: Acidic precipitation (southernmost part of the country); precipitation rich in marine cations (highly oceanic coastal areas); and low concentrations of sea salts (slightly continental inland areas). After 50 weeks and a total precipitation supply of ∼10 000 L m(-2) per column, results indicate that acidic precipitation increased the mobility of (134)Cs added during the experiment. However, depth distribution of already present Chernobyl fallout (137)Cs was not significantly affected by the chemical composition of precipitation.

Distribution and turnover of (137)Cs in birch forest ecosystems: influence of precipitation chemistry.

The aim of the present work was to study radioactive caesium in soil and plants from birch forests subject to different chemical climate. Four areas and three types of precipitation regimes were considered, representing a natural climatic range found in Norway: (A) acidic precipitation (southernmost part of the country); (B) precipitation rich in "sea salts"/marine cations (coastal areas); and (C) + (D) low concentrations of sea salts (inland areas). The results showed significant regional differences in plant uptake between the investigated areas. For instance the aggregated soil-to-plant transfer coefficients (Tag) were generally up to 7-8 times higher for the area receiving acid rain. Differences in caesium speciation partly explained the regional variability - e.g. the exchangeable fraction ranged from 1 to 40% (with the largest fraction of exchangeable caesium found in southernmost Norway). Transfer coefficients estimated on the basis of exchangeable fractions showed no significant differences between the areas of highest (A) and lowest (C) Tags. However, exchangeable fractions taken into consideration, the uptake of (137)Cs in plants in the acid rain-influenced area is still about twice that in the sea salt influenced area B. A significantly lower concentration of soluble base cations and a higher share of acid components in soils in area A is a likely explanation for this observation.

Background dose-rates to reference animals and plants arising from exposure to naturally occurring radionuclides in aquatic environments.

In order to put dose-rates derived in environmental impact assessments into context, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has recommended the structuring of effects data according to background exposure levels. The ICRP has also recommended a suite of reference animals and plants (RAPs), including seven aquatic organisms, for use within their developing framework. In light of these propositions, the objective of this work was to collate information on activity concentrations of naturally occurring primordial radionuclides for marine and freshwater ecosystems and apply appropriate dosimetry models to derive absorbed dose-rates. Although coverage of activity concentration data is comprehensive for sediment and water, few, or in some cases no, data were found for some RAPs, e.g. for frogs (Ranidae) and freshwater grasses (Poaceae) for most radionuclides. The activity concentrations for individual radionuclides in both organisms and their habitat often exhibit standard deviations that are substantially greater than arithmetic mean values, reflecting large variability in activity concentrations. To take account of variability a probabilistic approach was adopted. The dominating radionuclides contributing to exposure in the RAPs are (40)K, (210)Po and (226)Ra. The mean unweighted and weighted dose-rates for aquatic RAPs are in the ranges 0.07-0.39 microGy h(-1) and 0.37-1.9 microGy h(-1) respectively.

Transfer of radionuclides in aquatic ecosystems--default concentration ratios for aquatic biota in the Erica Tool.

The process of assessing risk to the environment following a given release of radioactivity requires the quantification of activity concentrations in environmental media and reference organisms. The methodology adopted by the ERICA Integrated Approach involves the application of concentration ratios (CR values) and distribution coefficients (K(d) values) for aquatic systems. Within this paper the methodologies applied to derive default transfer parameters, collated within the ERICA Tool databases, are described to provide transparency and traceability in the documentation process. Detailed information is provided for the CR values used for marine and freshwater systems. Of the total 372 CR values derived for the marine ecosystem, 195 were identified by literature review. For the freshwater system, the number of values based on review was less, but still constituted 129 from a total of 372 values. In both types of aquatic systems, 70-80% of the data gaps have been filled by employing "preferable" approaches such as those based on substituting values from taxonomically similar organisms or biogeochemically similar elements.

Development of a methodology for assessing the environmental impact of radioactivity in Northern Marine environments.

The requirement to assess the impacts of radioactivity in the environment explicitly and transparently is now generally accepted by the scientific community. A recently developed methodology for achieving this end for marine ecosystems is presented within this paper. With its clear relationship to an overarching system, the marine impact assessment is built around components of environmental transfer, ecodosimetry and radiobiological effects appraisal relying on the use of "reference organisms". Concentration factors (CFs), dynamic models and, in cases where parameters are missing, allometry have been employed in the consideration of radionuclide transfer. Dose conversion coefficients (DCCs) have been derived for selected flora and fauna using, inter alia, dose attenuation and chord distribution functions. The calculated dose-rates can be contextualised through comparison with dose-rates arising from natural background and chronic dose-rates at which biological effects have been observed in selected "umbrella" endpoints.

Identifying optimal agricultural countermeasure strategies for a hypothetical contamination scenario using the strategy model.

A spatially implemented model designed to assist the identification of optimal countermeasure strategies for radioactively contaminated regions is described. Collective and individual ingestion doses for people within the affected area are estimated together with collective exported ingestion dose. A range of countermeasures are incorporated within the model, and environmental restrictions have been included as appropriate. The model evaluates the effectiveness of a given combination of countermeasures through a cost function which balances the benefit obtained through the reduction in dose with the cost of implementation. The optimal countermeasure strategy is the combination of individual countermeasures (and when and where they are implemented) which gives the lowest value of the cost function. The model outputs should not be considered as definitive solutions, rather as interactive inputs to the decision making process. As a demonstration the model has been applied to a hypothetical scenario in Cumbria (UK). This scenario considered a published nuclear power plant accident scenario with a total deposition of 1.7x10(14), 1.2x10(13), 2.8x10(10) and 5.3x10(9)Bq for Cs-137, Sr-90, Pu-239/240 and Am-241, respectively. The model predicts that if no remediation measures were implemented the resulting collective dose would be approximately 36 000 person-Sv (predominantly from 137Cs) over a 10-year period post-deposition. The optimal countermeasure strategy is predicted to avert approximately 33 000 person-Sv at a cost of approximately 160 million pounds. The optimal strategy comprises a mixture of ploughing, AFCF (ammonium-ferric hexacyano-ferrate) administration, potassium fertiliser application, clean feeding of livestock and food restrictions. The model recommends specific areas within the contaminated area and time periods where these measures should be implemented.

Distribution of 90Sr and 137Cs in Arctic soil profiles polluted by heavy metals.

Effects of industrial pollution on the behaviour of radionuclides in spruce forest ecosystems were studied along a gradient from of a copper-nickel smelter in Monchegorsk, NW Russia. A reference site was situated in Lapland, Finland, 152 km west of Monchegorsk. Most of the total 137Cs activity in soil was in mineral (E and B) horizons, except at the reference site where the major part was still in the organic surface layer. Most of the total 90Sr activity still remaining in the soil profile was found in the surface layer, but the relative amount decreased with increasing level of industrial pollution. Pollutants from the smelter clearly affected the chemical speciation of radionuclides. Smaller amounts of exchangeable radionuclides were present in the organic surface layer at the most polluted sites. The decline of 137Cs with decreasing distance from the smelter correlated strongly with a similar depletion in exchangeable K and Mg. Total concentrations of 137Cs and 90Sr showed high correlations with exchangeable cations, particularly in the E and upper B horizon. A sudden change in behaviour of 137Cs in the lower B horizon may be associated with changes in clay mineralogy along the soil profile caused by weathering.

Radiation doses to aquatic organisms from natural radionuclides.

A framework for protection of the environment is likely to require a methodology for assessing dose rates arising from naturally occurring radionuclides. This paper addresses this issue for European aquatic environments through a process of (a) data collation, mainly with respect to levels of radioactivity in water sediments and aquatic flora and fauna, (b) the use of suitable distribution coefficients, concentration factors and global data where data gaps are present and (c) the utilisation of a reference organism approach whereby a finite number of suitable geometries are selected to allow dose per unit concentration factors to be derived and subsequent absorbed dose calculations (weighted or unweighted) to be made. The majority of the calculated absorbed dose, for both marine and freshwater organisms, arises from internally incorporated alpha emitters, with 210Po and 226Ra being the major contributors. Calculated doses are somewhat higher for freshwater compared to marine organisms, and the range of doses is also much greater. This reflects both the much greater variability of radionuclide concentrations in freshwater as compared to seawater, and also variability or uncertainty in concentration factor values. This work has revealed a number of substantial gaps in published empirical data especially for European aquatic environments.

Effect of chemical pollution on forms of 137Cs, 90Sr and 239,240Pu in arctic soil studied by sequential extraction.

The aim of the present study was to determine the forms of 137Cs, 90Sr and 239,240Pu occurring in different soil horizons using sequential extraction of samples taken from four sites located along a pollution gradient from the copper-nickel smelter at Monchegorsk in the Kola Peninsula, Russia, and from a reference site in Finnish Lapland in 1997. A selective sequential-leaching procedure was employed using a modification of the method of Tessier, Cambell and Bisson ((1979). Analytical Chemistry, 51, 844-851). For 137Cs the organic (O) and uppermost mineral (E1) layer were studied, for 90Sr and 239,240Pu only the uppermost organic layer (Of). The fraction of 137Cs occurring in readily exchangeable form in the organic layer was about 50% at the reference site and decreased as a function of pollution, being 15% at the most polluted site in the Kola Peninsula. There was a clear positive correlation in the O layer between the distance from the smelter and the percentage of 137Cs extracted in the readily exchangeable fraction (Spearman correlation rsp = 0.7805, p = 0.0001), whereas in the E1 layer no correlation was evident. The distribution of 90Sr in the Of layer was similar at all sites, with the highest amounts occurring in exchangeable form and bound to organic matter, whereas stable Sr showed a somewhat different distribution with the highest amount in the oxide fraction. Most of the 239,240Pu was bound to organic matter. Chemical pollution affected the exchangeable fraction of 239,240Pu, which was about 1% at the most polluted site and 4-6% at the other sites.