Development and validation of a cardiovascular risk prediction model in type 1 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to report current rates of CVD in type 1 diabetes and to develop a CVD risk prediction tool for type 1 diabetes. METHODS: A cohort of 27,527 people with type 1 diabetes without prior CVD was derived from the national register in Scotland. Incident CVD events during 199,552 person-years of follow-up were ascertained using hospital admissions and death registers. A Poisson regression model of CVD was developed and then validated in the Swedish National Diabetes Register (n = 33,183). We compared the percentage with a high 10 year CVD risk (i.e., ≥10%) using the model with the percentage eligible for statins using current guidelines by age. RESULTS: The age-standardised rate of CVD per 100,000 person-years was 4070 and 3429 in men and women, respectively, with type 1 diabetes in Scotland, and 4014 and 3956 in men and women in Sweden. The final model was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow test p > 0.05) and included a further 22 terms over a base model of age, sex and diabetes duration (C statistic 0.82; 95% CI 0.81, 0.83). The model increased the base model C statistic from 0.66 to 0.80, from 0.60 to 0.75 and from 0.62 to 0.68 in those aged <40, 40-59 and ≥ 60 years, respectively (all p values <0.005). The model required minimal calibration in Sweden and had a C statistic of 0.85. Under current guidelines, >90% of those aged 20-39 years and 100% of those ≥40 years with type 1 diabetes were eligible for statins, but it was not until age 65 upwards that 100% had a modelled risk of CVD ≥10% in 10 years. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: A prediction tool such as that developed here can provide individualised risk predictions. This 10 year CVD risk prediction tool could facilitate patient discussions regarding appropriate statin prescribing. Apart from 10 year risk, such discussions may also consider longer-term CVD risk, the potential for greater benefits from early vs later statin intervention, the potential impact on quality of life of an early CVD event and evidence on safety, all of which could influence treatment decisions, particularly in younger people with type 1 diabetes.

Quantitative levels of serum N-glycans in type 1 diabetes and their association with kidney disease.

We investigated associations of quantitative levels of N-glycans with hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), renal function and renal function decline in type 1 diabetes. We measured 46 total N-glycan peaks (GPs) on 1565 serum samples from the Scottish Diabetes Research Network Type 1 Bioresource Study (SDRNT1BIO) and a pool of healthy donors. Quantitation of absolute abundance of each GP used 2AB-labeled mannose-3 as a standard. We studied cross-sectional associations of GPs and derived measures with HbA1c, albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and prospective associations with incident albuminuria and final eGFR. All GPs were 1.4 to 3.2 times more abundant in SDRTN1BIO than in the healthy samples. Absolute levels of all GPs were slightly higher with higher HbA1c, with strongest associations for triantennary trigalactosylated disialylated, triantennary trigalactosylated trisialylated structures with core or outer arm fucose, and tetraantennary tetragalactosylated trisialylated glycans. Most GPs showed increased abundance with worsening ACR. Lower eGFR was associated with higher absolute GP levels, most significantly with biantennary digalactosylated disialylated glycans with and without bisect, triantennary trigalactosylated trisialylated glycans with and without outer arm fucose, and core fucosylated biantennary monogalactosylated monosialylated glycans. Although several GPs were inversely associated prospectively with final eGFR, cross-validated multivariable models did not improve prediction beyond clinical covariates. Elevated HbA1c is associated with an altered N-glycan profile in type 1 diabetes. Although we could not establish GPs to be prognostic of future renal function decline independently of HbA1c, further studies to evaluate their impact in the pathogenesis of diabetic kidney disease are warranted.