THE PROHOROV METRIC FRAMEWORK AND AGGREGATE DATA INVERSE PROBLEMS FOR RANDOM PDEs.

We consider nonparametric estimation of probability measures for parameters in problems where only aggregate (population level) data are available. We summarize an existing computational method for the estimation problem which has been developed over the past several decades [24, 5, 12, 28, 16]. Theoretical results are presented which establish the existence and consistency of very general (ordinary, generalized and other) least squares estimates and estimators for the measure estimation problem with specific application to random PDEs.

PF-05231023, a long-acting FGF21 analogue, decreases body weight by reduction of food intake in non-human primates.

PF-05231023, a long-acting FGF21 analogue, is a promising potential pharmacotherapy for the treatment of obesity and associated comorbidities. Previous studies have shown the potential of FGF21 and FGF21-like compounds to decrease body weight in mice, non-human primates, and humans; the precise mechanisms of action remain unclear. In particular, there have been conflicting reports on the degree to which FGF21-induced weight loss in non-human primates is attributable to a decrease in food intake versus an increase in energy expenditure. Here, we present a semi-mechanistic mathematical model of energy balance and body composition developed from similar work in mice. This model links PF-05231023 administration and washout to changes in food intake, which in turn drives changes in body weight. The model is calibrated to and compared with recently published data from cynomolgus macaques treated with PF-05231023, demonstrating its accuracy in describing pharmacotherapy-induced weight loss in these animals. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that PF-05231023 decreases body weight in cynomolgus macaques solely by a reduction in food intake, with no direct effect on energy expenditure.

Evaluation of a Mathematical Model of Rat Body Weight Regulation in Application to Caloric Restriction and Drug Treatment Studies.

The purpose of this work is to develop a mathematical model of energy balance and body weight regulation that can predict species-specific response to common pre-clinical interventions. To this end, we evaluate the ability of a previously published mathematical model of mouse metabolism to describe changes in body weight and body composition in rats in response to two short-term interventions. First, we adapt the model to describe body weight and composition changes in Sprague-Dawley rats by fitting to data previously collected from a 26-day caloric restriction study. The calibrated model is subsequently used to describe changes in rat body weight and composition in a 23-day cannabinoid receptor 1 antagonist (CB1Ra) study. While the model describes body weight data well, it fails to replicate body composition changes with CB1Ra treatment. Evaluation of a key model assumption about deposition of fat and fat-free masses shows a limitation of the model in short-term studies due to the constraint placed on the relative change in body composition components. We demonstrate that the model can be modified to overcome this limitation, and propose additional measurements to further test the proposed model predictions. These findings illustrate how mathematical models can be used to support drug discovery and development by identifying key knowledge gaps and aiding in the design of additional experiments to further our understanding of disease-relevant and species-specific physiology.

A novel statistical analysis and interpretation of flow cytometry data.

A recently developed class of models incorporating the cyton model of population generation structure into a conservation-based model of intracellular label dynamics is reviewed. Statistical aspects of the data collection process are quantified and incorporated into a parameter estimation scheme. This scheme is then applied to experimental data for PHA-stimulated CD4+T and CD8+T cells collected from two healthy donors. This novel mathematical and statistical framework is shown to form the basis for accurate, meaningful analysis of cellular behaviour for a population of cells labelled with the dye carboxyfluorescein succinimidyl ester and stimulated to divide.

A division-dependent compartmental model for computing cell numbers in CFSE-based lymphocyte proliferation assays.

Some key features of a mathematical description of an immune response are an estimate of the number of responding cells and the manner in which those cells divide, differentiate, and die. The intracellular dye CFSE is a powerful experimental tool for the analysis of a population of dividing cells, and numerous mathematical treatments have been aimed at using CFSE data to describe an immune response [30,31,32,37,38,42,48,49]. Recently, partial differential equation structured population models, with measured CFSE fluorescence intensity as the structure variable, have been shown to accurately fit histogram data obtained from CFSE flow cytometry experiments [18,19,52,54]. In this report, the population of cells is mathematically organized into compartments, with all cells in a single compartment having undergone the same number of divisions. A system of structured partial differential equations is derived which can be fit directly to CFSE histogram data. From such a model, cell counts (in terms of the number of divisions undergone) can be directly computed and thus key biological parameters such as population doubling time and precursor viability can be determined. Mathematical aspects of this compartmental model are discussed, and the model is fit to a data set. As in [18,19], we find temporal and division dependence in the rates of proliferation and death to be essential features of a structured population model for CFSE data. Variability in cellular autofluorescence is found to play a significant role in the data, as well. Finally, the compartmental model is compared to previous work, and statistical aspects of the experimental data are discussed.

A new model for the estimation of cell proliferation dynamics using CFSE data.

CFSE analysis of a proliferating cell population is a popular tool for the study of cell division and divisionlinked changes in cell behavior. Recently Banks et al. (2011), Luzyanina et al. (2009), Luzyanina et al. (2007), a partial differential equation (PDE) model to describe lymphocyte dynamics in a CFSE proliferation assay was proposed. We present a significant revision of this model which improves the physiological understanding of several parameters. Namely, the parameter used previously as a heuristic explanation for the dilution of CFSE dye by cell division is replaced with a more physical component, cellular autofluorescence. The rate at which label decays is also quantified using a Gompertz decay process. We then demonstrate a revised method of fitting the model to the commonly used histogram representation of the data. It is shown that these improvements result in a model with a strong physiological basis which is fully capable of replicating the behavior observed in the data.

Estimation of cell proliferation dynamics using CFSE data.

Advances in fluorescent labeling of cells as measured by flow cytometry have allowed for quantitative studies of proliferating populations of cells. The investigations (Luzyanina et al. in J. Math. Biol. 54:57-89, 2007; J. Math. Biol., 2009; Theor. Biol. Med. Model. 4:1-26, 2007) contain a mathematical model with fluorescence intensity as a structure variable to describe the evolution in time of proliferating cells labeled by carboxyfluorescein succinimidyl ester (CFSE). Here, this model and several extensions/modifications are discussed. Suggestions for improvements are presented and analyzed with respect to statistical significance for better agreement between model solutions and experimental data. These investigations suggest that the new decay/label loss and time dependent effective proliferation and death rates do indeed provide improved fits of the model to data. Statistical models for the observed variability/noise in the data are discussed with implications for uncertainty quantification. The resulting new cell dynamics model should prove useful in proliferation assay tracking and modeling, with numerous applications in the biomedical sciences.

Label Structured Cell Proliferation Models.

We present a general class of cell population models that can be used to track the proliferation of cells which have been labeled with a fluorescent dye. The mathematical models employ fluorescence intensity as a structure variable to describe the evolution in time of the population density of proliferating cells. While cell division is a major component of changes in cellular fluorescence intensity, models developed here also address overall label degradation.